Do the Celtics Have the Right Stuff (to win a title)

[Vermont Green]

They’re very good but at this point until they prove otherwise, no.

Were you saying the same thing about Denver a year ago?

To be fair a lot of people were saying that about Denver and they proved it a year ago. I did too. Thought Jokic was a liability on defense + didn't trust Murray as much. They also had playoff letdowns in recent years as well and were questioned including the coach. But as we saw, Murray stepped up big time and took a bit of a leap. Hope Jaylen can do the same and improve the decision-making come playoffs.

Ultimately though, this whole thread is the same as usual. We won't know until April-May. That's when it'll all matter. It's why as frustrating as some of the recent losses are, it doesn't bother me. Name me a single NBA team this season that hasn't had a few "letdowns" or "bad losses". I'll wait. It's that time of the year near the break when many are "bored" and going through the motions. Same with the C's, they may just stroll to the 1 seed anyways at around 60 wins with little resistance. The key is staying healthy and managing minutes.

Maybe others are right that Mazzulla and the Jays will prevent us from winning it all. Or they improve, take a leap and we win Banner 18. Again, no one will know in February 3, have to see beyond April

See, that is the parallel that I am trying to draw.  Jokic had already won 2 MVPs but still a lot of people doubted that DEN could win a title.  They discounted all the regular season success, waving it aside with the logic that until they win a title, I won't believe it.  For those that have doubts about the Celtics, I am trying to clarify why.  One category of doubt seems to be that Tatum, as the best player, isn't good enough in terms of pure talent.  Not quite enough of an MVP talent to be the number 1 on a title team.  Not quite Jokic or Giannis.

I understand this line of thinking but there are only a handful of players in the league that would be clearly considered better than Tatum.  Giannis and Embiid in the East, maybe Butler, but the Celtics/Tatum have beaten both of MIL and PHI in playoff series already.  And that was before adding Porzingis and Holiday.  The other top players are Jokic (we have not played DEN in a playoff series) and Doncic (who isn't going to be in the finals in the near term).  I am not convinced that there is an issue with Tatum being flatly good enough.  Tatum has already beaten MVP lead teams multiple times.

The other category of doubt is the mental make up or killer instinct or closer mentality, mostly in terms of Tatum, but the team overall to some extent.  There is no measure of this.  Many will simply say they don't have it because they have not won a title and will only accept that they do have it when they win a title.  This is kind of circular reasoning, but it doesn't mean it is right or wrong.  I am not sure they have it or not.  And even if they didn't have it yet, it doesn't mean they won't figure it out or maybe have already figured it out for this coming playoff run.

[SparzWizard]

Don't have the right mentality.

[Vermont Green]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does? 

[Who]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does?

I don't think the question with Denver was mentality. It was whether their defense was good enough to get the job done. A few questioned their mentality but not many. Most questioned their D.

[Roy H.]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does?

Denver had a perennial MVP and a great coach, along with a very good supporting cast.  They were the top seed in the West.  Why are they getting knocked?

[Vermont Green]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does?

Denver had a perennial MVP and a great coach, along with a very good supporting cast.  They were the top seed in the West.  Why are they getting knocked?

DEN was "knocked" plenty before they won a championship, not so much now.  Much of the narrative was similar to the current narrative about how the Celtics "don't have it".  I don't know if the Celtics have it or not.  DEN has Jokic who is clearly a better player than the Celtics best Player (Tatum).  But I am not sure DEN has any more killer instinct or mental toughness than the Celtics do.  Or has an overall better roster.

I am just pushing back on the narrative or what seems to be the conventional wisdom that the Celtics don't have it as a means to get a better understanding of the line of thinking.   The Celtics title betting odds are +270, making them the favorite.  But that still means that the "field" has higher odds to win than the Celtics do (I think 37% Celtics, 63% Field, but someone better at betting odds can confirm that).  It is more likely that the Celtics do not win the title in any case, even though they are the favorite.

But if they don't win the title, is it fair to declare they don't have the mentality or that Tatum isn't a good enough best player?  Or will it be any of the dozens of other things that may be the reason they don't win the title?

[Kernewek]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does?

I don't think the question with Denver was mentality. It was whether their defense was good enough to get the job done. A few questioned their mentality but not many. Most questioned their D.

I don't think it's unfair to say that, prior to the championship run, Denver (and Jokić specifically) was getting similar treatment to Embiid: great regular seasons, but where are the results in the playoffs?

But, to be honest, I think Jokić's situation was more reminiscent of to Steve Nash, another guy who famously won two MVPs and didn't manage to win a championship. It's a pretty common take to say Nash shouldn't have won one of them (I forget which) over LeBron - but you don't have that conversation if the Suns go all the way that year.

[cman88]

Don't have the right mentality.

But DEN does?

Denver had a perennial MVP and a great coach, along with a very good supporting cast.  They were the top seed in the West.  Why are they getting knocked?

I think he's talking about the fact that the narrative around Denver was pretty similar to boston until they won it.

they were the team that perenially got almost to the finish line but couldnt finish the job. they won last year so the narrative has changed.

winning changes alot of narratives. look at the milwaukee bucks. they won so the narrative around them is always as a team that knows how to win. even though other than that season they have been eliminated early every year

[Who]

Denver were an up and coming team. Made a surprise run to the WCF in 2020 and lost. Then had two injury hit years where Jamal Murray did not play at all in the playoffs and MPJ did not play in one of them. They lost while their co-stars where injured. Then they won the title the first year their team was healthy.

Jokic won his first MVP in 2021. Again in 2022. The two injury hit years. Title in 2023. First healthy year.

[RodyTur10]

Denver were an up and coming team. Made a surprise run to the WCF in 2020 and lost. Then had two injury hit years where Jamal Murray did not play at all in the playoffs and MPJ did not play in one of them. They lost while their co-stars where injured. Then they won the title the first year their team was healthy.

Jokic won his first MVP in 2021. Again in 2022. The two injury hit years. Title in 2023. First healthy year.

Really weird how many analysts and fans didn't take the injuries of Murray and Porter Jr. much in their consideration with the evaluation of Jokic and Denver in general. There was even unfounded critics on how Jokic wasn't a playoff performer, while he was already the best player on the court in that '20 WCF with prime Davis and LeBron. In hindsight their title was completely logical.

Despite all the worries I do have on how the Celtics will act when times get rough. Can they keep away from the trap to settle for iso-plays by Tatum or Brown? Can they find other ways to score than relying on threes? If we just look at it logically then the Celtics are the absolute favorite to win it this year. They have the best record, playoff experience and when Holiday is your worst starter then you are in really good shape.

[Roy H.]

But if they don't win the title, is it fair to declare they don't have the mentality or that Tatum isn't a good enough best player?  Or will it be any of the dozens of other things that may be the reason they don't win the title?

If we lose in the playoffs to a lower seed on our home court again, it's completely fair to question whether we have what it takes.

[Kernewek]

Denver were an up and coming team. Made a surprise run to the WCF in 2020 and lost. Then had two injury hit years where Jamal Murray did not play at all in the playoffs and MPJ did not play in one of them. They lost while their co-stars where injured. Then they won the title the first year their team was healthy.

Jokic won his first MVP in 2021. Again in 2022. The two injury hit years. Title in 2023. First healthy year.

Sure, but we're one buzzer-beater bouncing out from having a very similar discussion about the Embiid Sixers, and that's the point: that the narratives are often crafted after the fact.

[Moranis]

As a prior Jokic critic, the issue I had was not that they lost without Murray and MPJ, it was that the Nuggets were better in the playoffs in 20, 21, and 22 when Jokic was on the bench.  His differential per 100 in those 3 playoff runs was -3.0, -8.2, and -16.5.  During the regular seasons those years he was positive at 3.2, 6.2, and 6.4.  And that includes 20 when they made the run in the bubble.  So for me the critique was solely a Jokic one i.e. great contributor to winning in the regular season but not in the post season.  Even last year he was all time in the regular season at 21.9 and while positive in the post season he was just 2.0.  Murray was 9.9 in the playoffs last year and Gordon was 20.6.  Those guys seem to be the catalysts. Gordon was even +4.6 in the 5 game loss to the Warriors (that was the -16.5 year for Jokic). 

For as great as Jokic is in the regular season, he doesn't carry it over into the post season like other all time greats do.  Murray though does, which is why with Murray healthy they are such a different team.

[Celtics2021]

Denver were an up and coming team. Made a surprise run to the WCF in 2020 and lost. Then had two injury hit years where Jamal Murray did not play at all in the playoffs and MPJ did not play in one of them. They lost while their co-stars where injured. Then they won the title the first year their team was healthy.

Jokic won his first MVP in 2021. Again in 2022. The two injury hit years. Title in 2023. First healthy year.

Sure, but we're one buzzer-beater bouncing out from having a very similar discussion about the Embiid Sixers, and that's the point: that the narratives are often crafted after the fact.

And would that Sixers team have been significantly different, mentality-wise, such that we wouldn’t have blown them out in second half of game 7 last year?  If that Sixers team is a recent champion, do people give the Celtics more credit for winning in big games?

And that’s why I don’t buy the mentality arguments at all.  In the last two playoffs, they’re 3-1 in game 7s, including victories over the defending champs, the Eastern Conference champs from two seasons earlier, and these Sixers, who are sometimes hailed as being a bounce away from champions.

[boscel33]

I don't think Joe can win the title.  In 2008, Rivers just had to sit on the bench and let Garnett, Pierce, and Allen win him a title.  Joe can't do that!