What is the main thing that keeps you up at night about the C's playoff chances?

[ozgod]

And yes, it can be a person 

For me, it's the fact that we haven't really been tested in really close games. We've been blowing teams out of the most part - 45% of our games have been by 11 points or more (or put another way, 35 of our 62 wins have been by 11 points or more, which is 56% of our wins. You'd never know it from the comments in the game threads but following along to the team this year  has been very relaxing compared to other years - so like the cardiac fans we need to be we've adjusted by now getting nervous when the team is "only" leading by 20 and not by 30.

You can see our win/loss and margins in the graphic I put together below, where you can see how dominant our team has been this season:



But you will also see that for games that were decided by 1 possession or less, we actually have a losing record - 6-7. This speaks to all those "last second plays to win" that Tatum has been criticized for. In the last Sac game, Joe also let them play, and since the defense tried to trap PP as soon as he got it (the same way they do to Tatum) they tried to run a play for Hauser to get a layup, he was blocked but fortunately he managed to deflect the ball to X who scored the game winning floater. Then they hung in defensively for the win.

In that case it ended well due to them scrambling and responding well to what was in front of them after the Hauser shot was missed, but if I was to be critical of them this year it's that they've been too dominant and we haven't had enough of these instances that have tested us under game winning pressure. It's hard to criticize them for shooting too well and blowing teams out, but sometimes (yes I'm a masochistic fan) I wish we had had more of those games where people call for Joe to be fired because the team doesn't play perfect, where we don't shoot too well and have to grind out a win. I loved the fact that Atlanta and Murray kept it close the whole game that 2nd game and ended up beating us on a last second shot. I enjoyed that Sac comeback because I wanted to see how they would react. I'd have much rather had those in the regular season than the playoffs.

What about you guys? What keeps you up at night about this team's chances in the playoffs?

[Who]

Nothing in the East.

They're gonna stroll into the Finals.

[Donoghus]

Health.  Specially, Porzingis.  Twisting an ankle or tweaking something.

Obviously, general health is a concern but mostly Porzingis due to past history and the fact that the Celtics have seemingly been jinxed by key injuries over the past couple of decades.

[BitterJim]

I wouldn't say anything is keeping me up at night because this team seems very complete, but I am a bit concerned about the lack of creativity on final shots. If we would just run some off-ball action we could put Tatum (or another player) in a much better position to hit a final shot. But we are just so uncreative.

[Moranis]

Is Tatum good enough?

[timpiker]

#1 - Health...  #2 - Crunch time basketball.  I hate it when the game is close, we slow down and Tatum has the ball and heaves up a shot with the clock running out.  When that happens, and it happens way too many times, we almost always lose. 

[Vermont Green]

Giving up Offensive Rebounds.

An opponent offensive rebound is essentially a turnover.  We play small, we will likely be closing games with 3 guards on the court and only 1 big.  Our smaller players are good rebounders for their positions but I still see it as a vulnerability.

[Kernewek]

Honestly it's the 2018 Game 7 between Houston & Golden State.

[celticinorlando]

1. Boston is the only team that can stop Boston. Will they allow it to happen?
2. Health
3. JT and JB turning the ball over and not rising to the occasion in a close playoff game.
4. Can they pivot if volume 3s aren't dropping?
5. Ball sticking on offense when a game is close as the offense turns into standing around while the shot clock runs down and throwing up a bad shot.
6. Giving up offensive rebounds

[mobilija]

I’m not so worried about your graphic. That wins by 4 to 10 points is pretty sizable. That says to me that there must be several games that were close that they were able to put out of reach, ie get past a one possession game. What does the data look like if you go 1 to 4 points? Tho I realize 1 to 3 makes more sense as a 1 possession game type tight situation.

To your question, it’s gotta be health. The games will get more physical.

In the east we should beat anyone in our bracket. I don’t care how that shakes out. This team is well focused and on a mission. I believe!

[Roy H.]

Health, followed by Joe.

[SparzWizard]

Health, Joe, and the brick city 3s that eventually go into Tatum ISOs or turnover Brown.

[Atzar]

Wouldn't say anything keeps me up at night exactly.  Tatum worries me a little - I don't think I'll ever be a fan of his offensive playstyle - but realistically we have everything we need.  And I don't really have a problem with Mazzulla this season either. 

That said, I do think Miami's playoff run last season proved that a mediocre team can just get hot from three at the right time and punch well above their weight.  For that reason, I wouldn't go into the postseason expecting anything to be a piece of cake just because we dog-walked the conference in the regular season.  Every single series should be viewed as a threat until we win four games. 

[Silas]

Health, health, and health.

[Vermont Green]

The books still have the Celtics as the favorite to win the title:

Boston Celtics                       +210
Denver Nuggets                    +333
Los Angeles Clippers              +750
Milwaukee Bucks                   +750
Oklahoma City Thunder        +1800
Phoenix Suns                       +2500
Minnesota Timberwolves       +2500
Dallas Mavericks                  +3000
Philadelphia 76ers                +3000

DEN's odds are a little longer probably as much because of the harder path out of the west as anything.  It will be interesting to see what the odds come in at if there is a head to head final BOS vs. DEN.  Probably pretty close to even, with a slight edge to BOS due to home court.

MIN may be the best value bet.  I would not go near MIL at this point.