2024 NFL Draft

[Moranis]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter.  Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career. 

Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential.  Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns.  Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick?

I just don't buy that a guy in 2 years of starting that had 63 TD's and 16 INT's with a 65% completion percentage playing for a mediocre team and lesser talent had a bad college experience. Compare that to 4 year starter Daniels and his 89 TD and 20 INT with a 66% completion percentage, playing on a team with NFL players across the entire team his last 2 years.  Daniels 5th year was amazing, but there was so much talent around him, he could easily be a product of the talent and bust out.  Maye was a lot better at UNC than Daniels was at ASU. A LOT better.

[Donoghus]

My biggest fear tonight is the Krafts meddling, turning down a ridiculous trade proposal, and forcing a QB pick that ends up being the wrong guy.

[Roy H.]

Looking forward to the end of this seemingly endless wait for draft night.  Tonight we’ll know.  My prediction:  about 8 seconds after the selection at three or the trade down, my brain will have adjusted.  Right now I hope it’s Maye because some of the pundits have convinced me he has the tools.  If it’s someone else, I’ll quickly be convinced by another pundit. Fickle as all heck. But practical too since no one can accurately predict the long/term impact of a draft on draft day.

I think I'm in the same boat with the Bears at #9.  I want any of the three WRs or Alt.  If one of them is there and the Bears decide to trade back, it will p--- me off, majorly. And then, within seconds, I will be talking myself into whatever trade package they got and rooting for the next pick on the board.

[Vermont Green]

I just don't buy that a guy in 2 years of starting that had 63 TD's and 16 INT's with a 65% completion percentage playing for a mediocre team and lesser talent had a bad college experience. Compare that to 4 year starter Daniels and his 89 TD and 20 INT with a 66% completion percentage, playing on a team with NFL players across the entire team his last 2 years.  Daniels 5th year was amazing, but there was so much talent around him, he could easily be a product of the talent and bust out.  Maye was a lot better at UNC than Daniels was at ASU. A LOT better.

Yeah, this is the hard part.  The lesser competition goes along with Maye having lesser tools on his team to work with.  He had no stud receivers.  His OL was not that great.  The entire focus of the other team defense was to stop Maye.

I accept that drafting a QB is a crap shoot.  But Maye has shown he has the arm and the overall athletic ability be an NFL QB.  It takes more than that though.  The competition doesn't affect how much zip there is on the ball when he throws it.  It doesn't affect his foot speed.  To be an NFL QB, you have to be able to play the game at NFL speed mentally as well as physically.  That is the part you don't know until you see the QB on the field with NFL players.  I have no idea if Maye, or any of the other QBs, will be able to handle NFL speed of play.  Even the scouts seem to have difficulty determining this.

I think the most likely outcome is we end up with Maye with the #3 pick.  I will be perfectly happy with that.  But it could also be something else.  I would be happy with a trade down for a haul of pick and end up with McCarthy or Penix.  I can't sit here today and be sure that Maye will be any better than McCarthy or Penix.

[Vermont Green]

Interesting idea was reported/speculated, something I have been thinking about also.  Instead of trading down (with MIN) and then back up to be sure you get the QB you want, why not just trade directly with NYG?

Rumor has it that landing Drake Maye is their [NYG] dream scenario, but in order to get him moving from No. 6 to No. 3 would likely be the way to go. Corry sees the following compensation as realistic: New England gets the sixth pick, the 47th in the second round, and a 2025 first-round selection.

I am expecting AZI to take Harrison at #4 for sure, pairing him with Murray seems like a no brainer, and then you have to wonder if LAC will trade the pick to someone who wants to get ahead of NE.  I think if you don't want or need a QB, why not trade down from 4 or 5?  Thus the risk of getting cute and not just taking your guy with the #3.

[Celtics2021]

Interesting idea was reported/speculated, something I have been thinking about also.  Instead of trading down (with MIN) and then back up to be sure you get the QB you want, why not just trade directly with NYG?

Rumor has it that landing Drake Maye is their [NYG] dream scenario, but in order to get him moving from No. 6 to No. 3 would likely be the way to go. Corry sees the following compensation as realistic: New England gets the sixth pick, the 47th in the second round, and a 2025 first-round selection.

I am expecting AZI to take Harrison at #4 for sure, pairing him with Murray seems like a no brainer, and then you have to wonder if LAC will trade the pick to someone who wants to get ahead of NE.  I think if you don't want or need a QB, why not trade down from 4 or 5?  Thus the risk of getting cute and not just taking your guy with the #3.

If the Pats want a QB and trade with the Giants at #6, they will then have to trade with the Chargers at #5 or risk losing said QB to the Vikings, who will also try to trade up to #5.

[Roy H.]

Interesting idea was reported/speculated, something I have been thinking about also.  Instead of trading down (with MIN) and then back up to be sure you get the QB you want, why not just trade directly with NYG?

Rumor has it that landing Drake Maye is their [NYG] dream scenario, but in order to get him moving from No. 6 to No. 3 would likely be the way to go. Corry sees the following compensation as realistic: New England gets the sixth pick, the 47th in the second round, and a 2025 first-round selection.

I am expecting AZI to take Harrison at #4 for sure, pairing him with Murray seems like a no brainer, and then you have to wonder if LAC will trade the pick to someone who wants to get ahead of NE.  I think if you don't want or need a QB, why not trade down from 4 or 5?  Thus the risk of getting cute and not just taking your guy with the #3.

I think that's right.  If New England traded back to #6 because (for instance) they loved J.J. but wanted more value, I think there's a good chance that Minnesota or another team would jump them.

Now, if they don't like either Maye or J.J., a trade back to #6 to pick Joe Alt isn't a bad idea.  But if they don't want a QB, I would think that Minnesota could offer a more desirable package.  At #11 and #23, the Pats could potentially land Bowers and an OT, or an OT and a WR, etc.

[Vermont Green]

Interesting idea was reported/speculated, something I have been thinking about also.  Instead of trading down (with MIN) and then back up to be sure you get the QB you want, why not just trade directly with NYG?

Rumor has it that landing Drake Maye is their [NYG] dream scenario, but in order to get him moving from No. 6 to No. 3 would likely be the way to go. Corry sees the following compensation as realistic: New England gets the sixth pick, the 47th in the second round, and a 2025 first-round selection.

I am expecting AZI to take Harrison at #4 for sure, pairing him with Murray seems like a no brainer, and then you have to wonder if LAC will trade the pick to someone who wants to get ahead of NE.  I think if you don't want or need a QB, why not trade down from 4 or 5?  Thus the risk of getting cute and not just taking your guy with the #3.

I think that's right.  If New England traded back to #6 because (for instance) they loved J.J. but wanted more value, I think there's a good chance that Minnesota or another team would jump them.

Now, if they don't like either Maye or J.J., a trade back to #6 to pick Joe Alt isn't a bad idea.  But if they don't want a QB, I would think that Minnesota could offer a more desirable package.  At #11 and #23, the Pats could potentially land Bowers and an OT, or an OT and a WR, etc.

All true, but if the Giants take Maye at #3 after the trade, would MIN or other still want to trade up for JJ McCarthy?  There is risk.  Agree that if you don't like any of the top QBs or like Penix, then you can trade back with a lot less risk.  I think they want a QB though, just a matter of how they have them ranked.

[Goldstar88]

Despite Robert Kraft not being involved in draft process, Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the draft process for New England.

How to turn a fanbase against you in four months.

That’s what RKK wants you to believe. He’s setting up his fall guy… His son no less. 

“Well, it’s not my fault. Jonathan is in charge.”

[Donoghus]

Despite Robert Kraft not being involved in draft process, Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the draft process for New England.

How to turn a fanbase against you in four months.

That’s what RKK wants you to believe. He’s setting up his fall guy… His son no less. 

“Well, it’s not my fault. Jonathan is in charge.”

Jonathan is pretty insufferable to begin with. I have no doubt he's meddling.

[Donoghus]

Keep this in mind tonight while watching the draft.  No one knows nothing.

https://twitter.com/OldTakesExposed/status/1779898631429959743

[Roy H.]

SBN's take on why teams shouldn't wait until next year for a QB:

The bombastic narrative of the 2024 NFL Draft is that this is a “legendary,” “once-in-a-decade” quarterback class. While part of this is true, it really is a deep class, the subtext behind the feeding frenzy for this year’s quarterbacks has been discussed far less: The 2025 class is poised to be one of the worst of all time.

Three of the draft’s top quarterbacks this year all decided to come out early. Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy were juniors, while Drake Maye was a redshirt sophomore. All three are locks to be top-10 picks, and given high grades by draft advisors — so it was only natural that they decided to leave school and make the jump.

That helped create a major vacuum when it comes to the potential of the 2025 class. Naturally a lot can shift over the next 12 months, but there’s absolutely nothing on the horizon which indicates that the 2025 NFL Draft will have a single franchise quarterback available. As it stands here are the seven best quarterbacks set to turn pro next year:

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Quinn Ewers, Texas
Carson Beck, Georgia
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
Cam Ward, Miami
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Jalon Daniels, Kansas

If you leave the 2024 NFL Draft without a quarterback, or a plan for the future at the position — good luck. This is one of the worst groups we have ever seen, and potentially even rivals the legendarily awful 2022 class that contained Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral as the top four passers off the board.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/better-get-a-quarterback-in-the-nfl-draft-now-because-the-2025-class-sucks/

[Neurotic Guy]

SBN's take on why teams shouldn't wait until next year for a QB:

The bombastic narrative of the 2024 NFL Draft is that this is a “legendary,” “once-in-a-decade” quarterback class. While part of this is true, it really is a deep class, the subtext behind the feeding frenzy for this year’s quarterbacks has been discussed far less: The 2025 class is poised to be one of the worst of all time.

Three of the draft’s top quarterbacks this year all decided to come out early. Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy were juniors, while Drake Maye was a redshirt sophomore. All three are locks to be top-10 picks, and given high grades by draft advisors — so it was only natural that they decided to leave school and make the jump.

That helped create a major vacuum when it comes to the potential of the 2025 class. Naturally a lot can shift over the next 12 months, but there’s absolutely nothing on the horizon which indicates that the 2025 NFL Draft will have a single franchise quarterback available. As it stands here are the seven best quarterbacks set to turn pro next year:

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Quinn Ewers, Texas
Carson Beck, Georgia
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
Cam Ward, Miami
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Jalon Daniels, Kansas

If you leave the 2024 NFL Draft without a quarterback, or a plan for the future at the position — good luck. This is one of the worst groups we have ever seen, and potentially even rivals the legendarily awful 2022 class that contained Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral as the top four passers off the board.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/better-get-a-quarterback-in-the-nfl-draft-now-because-the-2025-class-sucks/

Thanks for this. I’ve been wonder  ok ing what waiting for next year might mean as far as QB position goes. We all know there’s no guarantee but it does seem as though this year has a legit crop of good possibilities whereas, according your article, next year doesn’t.  And next year we may not be at #3.  If Maye is a legit prospect - and I think enough people think he’s legit - grab him.

[Moranis]

Yeah, I've been saying that for awhile in this board, next year's QB class is awful, which is why if the Pats like the guy at 3, they have to take them.

[Donoghus]

McShay's two cents.

Todd McShay
@McShay13
No 2024 NFL Mock Draft ⛓️ for me. But here’s what I’m hearing…

1. CHI QB Caleb ☑️
2. WASH QB Jayden ☑️
3. NE plan:
-HIGHLY LIKELY the Pats stick and pick Maye.
-Would only move back if A. They get a HAUL to move back and B. They have a 2nd trade in place with AZ at 4 or LAC at 5 to move back up for JJ McCarthy.  *And remember, Ossenfort spent 15 years in NE, so there’s a relationship there.

4 AZ plan:
-Stay at 4 and take MHJ.
-Trade back to 6 with NYG or NE (* see 👆 ) and still take MHJ.

5 LAC plan:
-Stay at 5 and take OT Alt (or I’m hearing maybe Latham over Alt?).
-Move back to 11 and take OT Latham.

6 NYG plan:
-Plan A: Want to move up to 3 for Maye. Don’t think NE will agree to move, but that’s what I hear NYG wants most.

-Plan B: Odunze. I’m told they’re not gonna risk another OBJ/K. Toney situation.

7 TEN plan:
-Take OT Alt if he’s still available (which could happen if LAC moved out of 5 and a QB was taken there.
-Take OT Latham

***ATL at 8 and CHI at 9 could have multiple offers to trade back when they get on the clock, as teams behind them could be jockeying to move up for one of these guys: QB McCarthy, WR Nabers or Odunze, OT Alt or Latham, and TE Bowers.

8 ATL plan:
-Take the top DEF player in the draft (EDGE Turner or DT Murphy)
-Trade back a few spots and still take best available DEF player (EDGE Turner, DT Murphy or CB Arnold)

9 CHI plan:
-Trade back and recover picks (only four picks this year).
-DT Murphy II or best-available WR/EDGE/OT would be priorities after trade down.
-Only caveat; CHI could stick at pick No. 9 if Odunze or Nabers falls.

10 NYJ plan:
-Best available weapon for Aaron (Nabers, Odunze, Bowers) or LOT protector Aaron (insurance in ‘24 and long-term).
-Can’t rule out a slight trade up (for a weapon) or a trade down (probably would wind up with OT at that point).

11 MIN plan:
-Trade up for Maye
-Trade up for JJ (but only if it doesn’t require breaking the bank with draft picks!) *I hear there’s a real cost-analysis going on in Minn… is it better to keep picks and land Penix at 11 or to pay a haul to move up for JJ. Very interesting debate!
-Stay home at 11 and hope JJ falls. If not, take Penix.

Finally, Saints, Rams, Steelers and Eagles are making a LOT of calls about moving up (NO = OT).

And teams I’m hearing have interest in potentially moving up for TE Brock Bowers:
-IND
-JAX