2023 Draft Tiers

[Who]

I am surprised Leonard Miller is in the mid 20s in some of these mock drafts I am seeing. I thought he would late lottery to mid teens. That is a high value pick / project to get in the 20s. Worth trading up for if he is indeed available there.

[Who]

A more optimistic comp for Jordan Hawkins would be JJ Redick.

Another small SG at 6-3/6-4. Short arms. Lightweight build. Took Redick a few years to get going in the NBA - to learn how to defend at the NBA level. Then another few years to learn how to create in PnRs.

Their sophomore stats are very similar.

JJ Redick: 15.9ppg 3.1rpg 1.6apg
J Hawkins: 16.2ppg 3.8rpg 1.3apg

Both guys finished with 26/27 steals in 37 games played. JJ had only 2-3 blocks a season all 4 years. Hawkins actually had 19 blocks his sophomore year. Redick had 70 turnovers. Hawkins only 50.

The FGA was 407 for Redick at 42% vs 450 at 41% for Hawkins. The 3PTA was 258 for Redick at 39.5% for 281 for Hawkins at 38.8%. 150 FTA for Redick at 95% vs 141 FTA at 89% for Hawkins.

Eerily similar.

Redick went on to average 22ppg as a junior and 27ppg as a senior. Then two years of not playing much before working himself into the rotation as a bench player in his 3rd NBA season. It was his 6th season before he started to make a claim for himself as a starting caliber SG in the NBA. So that is 8 years after sophomore season of hard work and development to get to that point.

A quick follow up on this comparison:

(1) JJ Redick was 14 months younger than Jordan Hawkins at the start of his college career.

(2) JJ Redick outperformed Hawkins as a freshman. Redick averaged 15ppg with 41% FG% 40% 3PT% 92% FT% in 31mpg as a freshman. J Hawkins averaged only 6ppg on just 35% FG% 38% 3PT% 82% FT% in only 15mpg as a freshman.

So despite being 14 months younger than Jordan Hawkins as a freshman, JJ Redick completely outplayed him. Destroyed him.

[CFAN38]

My thoughts to recap this draft.


1. Stevens is starting to form a draft profile. The three players he has drafted as GM of the Cs have been elite athletes with elite length.

2. I like Walsh and think he is a 3pt shot away from being a top 8 rotation guy on this team and a capable playoff contributor. He has a frame that I think will easily gain mass and he will be a perfect modern 3/4 capable of defending 1-4. The new coaching staffs ability to develop his shot is going to be huge.

3. Short term not draft Trayce Jackson-Davis at #39 could prove to be a mistake, he would have projected as a nice 4th big for this team.

4. Long term not drafting GG Jackson at #39 could prove to be a big mistake, he has his warts but its rare to have a player like Jackson in the 2nd round. #1 player in his class before reclassifying, was very productive representing USA in FIBA, was in a tough situation in college.

5. I have been advocating the draft philosophy of avoiding small non elite guards and non elite traditional bigs for a few drafts now and it seems like the league has turned that way. Henderson and Pickett where the only sub 6'3 guards drafted last night. If you believe that Lively will shoot in the NBA than Nnaji and TJD where the only non-shooting bigs drafted. This draft was largely all 6'4-6'8 perimeter players.

6. The league may have a minor issue on their hands with 2nd round picks. Livingston shut down for a promise at 58. His contract will be interesting, if its possible now for agents to negotiate with projected 2nds before the draft and push players to preferred teams. Instead of getting drafted by any team and settling for a 2-way, players can except promises for guaranteed money at lower draft slots. Teams will allow it to avoid ruining relationships with agents.

7. Has the new CBA and the 3 2way contracts killed the draft and stash? I see only 3 possible stash players in last nights draft.

8. The coverage of the draft as an event needs to change. The commentary was terrible, the trades where not explained on the air, the interviews where bland, listening to Bill Simmons podcast after the draft (it was recorded during draft) was 1,000 times better. Bill talks while KOC chimes in with trades he is seeing on twitter. The current ESPN model is terrible TV.

9. The league may be ready to add a 3rd round. 1st round guaranteed money, 2nd round guaranteed 2-way, 3rd round guaranteed G-League contract with NBA team retaining rights. A lot of players where signed to 2-way deals right after the draft these could/should be 3rd round picks.