BasketballReference: SFs Least Likely to Win Trophies

[PosImpos]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5956

This article confirms what most avid basketball fans already know: having a great big man, especially a great center, gives you the greatest chance of winning a championship.

However, it also reveals that having a great point guard is underrated, since a significant percentage of teams whose best player is a point guard have won it all; there have just been a lot more playoff teams that have relied on a great center.

Perhaps the most interesting thing is that no matter how they change the way they look at things, the Statheads find that teams whose best player was a SF had the lowest chance of winning a championship.  Very few teams have won it all with a SF as their best player, and the vast majority of those teams were led by either Larry Bird or John Havlicek.  Bird, of course, had McHale and Parrish, too.

Carmelo Anthony, LeBron and Durant seem to be supporting that idea.  All of them are fantastic players but they haven't played with any dominant big men so they haven't won yet.

Why do you think SFs have a hard time leading teams to championships?

[Roy Hobbs]

As an aside from that article, are the Celtics really a team centered around a point guard?  I think the Celts are as close to a team centered around no position in particular as you'll ever find; we've got excellent players at four out of five starting positions.

Who were the title Celtics centered around?  Was that KG or Pierce?  I suppose Win Shares says KG, but that team was equally Pierce's team.

[Moranis]

If I'm reading that correctly 7 teams won championships with a PG as their best player (during the regular season).  I would assume that Isiah accounts for 2 and Magic accounts for at least 4 (if not all 5) of the remaining 5.  I wouldn't put much stock in the PG if that is in fact the case.  

[PosImpos]

As an aside from that article, are the Celtics really a team centered around a point guard?  I think the Celts are as close to a team centered around no position in particular as you'll ever find; we've got excellent players at four out of five starting positions.

Who were the title Celtics centered around?  Was that KG or Pierce?  I suppose Win Shares says KG, but that team was equally Pierce's team.

Yeah, the article says we're centered around a point guard because he has the most win shares, I guess.  

We are centered around Rondo in the sense that he sets up everybody else, but like you said when our team is at its best they are dangerous at almost every position.  The Celtics are only as good as they are because they have a great player at 4 out of 5 starting positions.

As I pointed out, the Celtics teams in the 80s that won with Bird also had a kind of balance like that.  In fact, almost every team that wins a championship has supporting characters who are close to being as important as the main guy.  Kobe doesn't win rings without Pau Gasol or Shaq.  Shaq doesn't win rings without Kobe or Wade.  Jordan might not win rings without Pippen (a SF).  Bird doesn't win rings without McHale and Parrish.  Duncan would have a hard time winning rings without Robinson, Ginobili, and Parker.  I could go on.

[Roy Hobbs]

If I'm reading that correctly 7 teams won championships with a PG as their best player.  I would assume that Isiah accounts for 2 and Magic accounts for at least 4 (if not all 5) of the remaining 5.  I wouldn't put much stock in the PG if that is in fact the case. 

Yeah, I think the real answer is "great players win championships".  If you've got a dominant player at any position, you can win.

A great center is probably still the easiest path to a championship, simply because they're the easiest to build an offense around and the toughest to stop consistently.

[PosImpos]

If I'm reading that correctly 7 teams won championships with a PG as their best player.  I would assume that Isiah accounts for 2 and Magic accounts for at least 4 (if not all 5) of the remaining 5.  I wouldn't put much stock in the PG if that is in fact the case. 

Yeah, I think the real answer is "great players win championships".  If you've got a dominant player at any position, you can win.

A great center is probably still the easiest path to a championship, simply because they're the easiest to build an offense around and the toughest to stop consistently.

Yeah, I think that's the answer.  The fact is great centers hit their shots more than 60% of the time - they are the best at making the highest percentage shots.  They also grab lots of rebounds, giving your team extra possessions.  Furthermore, they provide defense against the highest percentage shots. 

Great wing players can hit clutch shots, and they can make a lot of 3's, but they don't impact the game the way a great center does.  It's easy to see why great centers (and PFs like Duncan that play like centers) have a great chance of winning championships.