I'm not going to invest more time into seeking out pre-draft projections for brown because ultimately it doesn't matter at this point. We took him 3rd and we are stuck with him for better or for worse. I hope that he turns into a star. In spite of everything I've read, I remain optimistic. I supported the pick from the start because I trust Ainge. I was glad we didn't take a 23 year old. I'm still very excited about the pick because I'd like to believe the Celtics knew something the media didn't.
I freely admit I don't watch college basketball so my opinion on brown is entirely irrelevant. I've never made any predictions about him. I don't actually have an opinion worth sharing about him.
What I do know is that there was considerable chatter about brown being a possible bust before the draft. What I do know is I read several articles and mocks suggesting he was unlikely to be a star. What I do know is that many projected him the 8th best player in a 2 player draft. What I do know is that Celtic fans booed the pick and rival team fans laughed at our expense on Twitter. What I do know is that a lot of the podcasts I listen to brushed off the pick and focused on Brown's considerable weaknesses. What I do know is that my bubbletea guy thinks Jaylen brown is going to be a dud. What I do know is the great Chad Ford, who's word comes straight from God when it comes to draft prospects, had him as a tier3/4 prospect.
What I do know is that I watched him in summer league and all the flaws I was warned about were on display and from that small sample size he doesn't look NBA ready at all. He looked exactly like the player everyone said he was - athletic, can get to the hoop, has nice shot mechanics, but can't finish or make shots.
All that said, I don't care. He's 19 and has an NBA body. I'm excited to see what he can do. If it's important to you guys to clear up my misconception of brown's perception, I would truly love for you to share these non-existent articles clay is referencing that called brown a future superstar. Maybe I missed those. I would love to have more reasons to be excited about the pick. All my friends who follow the NBA were sending me condolences after the pick... I'd like a reason to believe brown has star potential outside of pure homerism.
Also, if there is a widely respected draft analyst out there that you think I should follow for now on, please share. All the mainstream media/mocks I found weren't high on brown at all. Who should I be paying attention to instead ?
phosita
Members of this forum aren't going to qualify. I want you to point me in the direction of a respected draft analyst who was calling Brown a future superstar.
I don't mean that as a knock on Phosita. He's one of the few members of this forum I feel has worth. But when Phosita just described Jaylen's credentials, he was essentially describing Anthony Bennett's credentials prior to the 2013 draft:
Raw, physically gifted, good shooting stroke, explosive, will not do a lot right away, but could theoretically have star potential. That's why Bennett was taken 1st. Don't confuse experts claim that Brown/Bennett have theoretical star potential with how they described someone like Karl Towns or LeBron. It's a subtle difference between calling someone a "future star" and saying, "that guy might have star potential if he figures it all out". Subtle difference, but a significant difference.
Clay, I think you're at the point where you're just going to disagree with anything I say for the sake of disagreeing, but maybe we can get on the same page about something. I don't have high hopes, but I'll give it a shot...
Do you acknowledge that the 2013 draft was widely seen as weak at the time? Surely you're not in denial about that.
My memory of 2013 is that it was widely seen as a crap-shoot at the top. There were a handful of guys that were expected to go towards the top like Ben McLemore, Oladipo and Alex Len, but they were all widely believed to be lesser prospects than guys like John Wall, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, etc who were widely seen as being future stars when they were drafted.
My memory of 2013 was that Nerlens Noel was widely seen as the top prospect, but that he wasn't expected to go at the top due to his injury. And even despite being seen as the top prospect, nobody was calling him a "lock" as a future star either.
Bennett was taken 1st, because he was physically gifted and could possibly have star potential if he put those tools together. Nobody was calling him a "lock" to be a future star. He had high boom/bust potential. He was thought to have the most upside.
I'm not trying to personally upset you when I relay what I've read about the 2016 draft. Based on what I have read, they presented this draft extremely similarly to the 2013 draft with one caveat - Ben Simmons and to a lesser extent Brandon Ingram were seen as players with legitimate star potential. Outside of those two players, this draft was consistently presented as "weak". I read it several times that this was a "down" draft. Besides Simmons/Ingram, they presented to quality level as being similar to 2013. The guys from 3-8 were presented in a similar way the top picks in 2013 were presented. I actually think the perception of Jaylen Brown is about even with the perception of Anthony Bennett before he played a game. Raw guy who was taken at the top because of some potential he may or may not reach. It wasn't just Jaylen who was dismissed as not being a future star, it's every single prospect after the top 2 picks this year.
2013, in retrospect, is a much better draft than they gave it credit for at the time. Hopefully 2016 is the same. Maybe there are some hidden stars. Guys like CJ McCollum (10th), Steven Adams (12th), Giannis (15th) and Rudy Gobert (27th) have started to make names for themselves. Maybe there's some guys in the 10-30 range that will surprise us here. My hope is that Jaylen Brown doesn't follow Anthony Bennett's path. Hopefully Brown defies his "potential bust" tag. Nobody really expected Bennett to become a future allstar and nobody expects it of Brown now. Both were "swing for the fences" picks with no greater options available. People acknowledged that Bennett was young and conceivably have star potential if he figured it all out. That's how they describe Brown now. Bennett doesn't look like he's ever going to figure it out. Hopefully Brown does.
That glimmer of hope of Brown developing into a star is why I'm super excited about him. I'm not going to pretend like he's widely seen as a future star, though. He clearly isn't.
How this relates to Darius Miles is that in 2000 when Miles was drafted, there was plenty of chatter about how he was possibly the next KG. They stuck him on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Expectations were much hire for Miles back then. Maybe seeing enough guys like Miles fail to reach their ceiling is why expectations are lower for a raw prospect like Brown.