(Future) All Stars from draft classes 2013 to 2018

[RodyTur10]

With the draft coming and new rookies entering the league we tend to forget about previous draft classes. Someone who's not immediately looking like a star will have a hard time changing that perception. So I thought it would be interesting to look at previous draft classes and look which players are doing well and could eventually become All Stars nonetheless. Perhaps someone surprising.

I looked at the drafts from 2013 to 2018 (6 drafts). I don't see players making an All Star team (that haven't already) that have been longer in the league (examples: Bledsoe, T. Harris, Valanciunas). On average every draft produces around 5,4 All Star (or All NBA selection). Over a 6-year-span that's 32 players. So that's what I did: trying to predict the 32 All Stars from the drafts 2013-2018.

Below I mentioned 60 young players (12 per position), whom I thought deserved notification. In green the future All Stars, in blue those that have already accomplished that and in red those who I think won't make an All Star or All NBA selection in their career.

For names that aren't mentioned I obviously assume no future as a star (examples: Fultz, D. Murray, Smart, Kennard, Miles and Mikal Bridges, Bamba, Adams). Please share with me which players you disagree on and why.

Below are my evaluations per position (in draft order):

2013: Oladipo, Porter, McCollum, Antetokounmpo, Gobert   
2014: Embiid, LaVine, Randle, Jokic
2015: Towns, Russell, Porzingis, Booker
2016: Simmons, Brown, Hield, J.Murray, Sabonis, LeVert, Siakam
2017: Tatum, Fox, Markkanen, Mitchell, J.Collins
2018: Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Jackson Jr, Young, Carter Jr, Gilgeous-Alexander

[RodyTur10]

Point Guards
   
Elfrid Payton (25 years) 10,6 pts / 5,2 reb / 7,6 ast

NO, Payton is one of the better playmakers in the league, but he isn't much of a scoring threat. He'll probably never be in real consideration for nomination.

Spencer Dinwiddie (26 years) 16,8 pts   / 2,4 reb / 4,6 ast

NO, pretty much a late bloomer and still improving. But also inconsistent and probably not the starting PG next season(s).
Still interesting to follow.

D'Angelo Russell (23 years) 21,1 pts / 3,9 reb / 7,0 ast

ALREADY, very impressive numbers this season. The question is if he'll make more All Star teams. His weakness is his efficiency, but that can come if he matures.

Ben Simmons (22 years) 16,8 pts / 8,8 reb / 7,7 ast

ALREADY, Simmons will be a regular All Star, since he'll allways have high production. To become a superstar he has to add more elements to his game.

Jamal Murray (22 years) 18,2 pts / 4,2 reb / 4,8 ast

YES, a score first guard, but that isn't a problem with Jokic on the team. Being on a succesful Denver team will easily draw the necessary attention for future All Star selections.

Lonzo Ball (21 years)   9,9 pts / 5,3 reb / 5,4 ast

NO, Ball is an enigma. Many people claim that his impact is much bigger than meets the eye. His shooting numbers are so bad (42% on free throws f.e.) that I can't see a future star. Useful role player.

De'Aaron Fox (21 years) 17,3 pts / 3,8 reb / 7,3 ast

YES, Fox made a huge leap. His points, assists, steals, 3P% all went up big time. I think Fox can become the best PG in basketball and bring Sacramento finally some success.

Dennis Smith Jr. (21 years) 13,6 pts / 2,9 reb / 4,8 ast

NO, after an excellent rookie year it was somewhat suprising that Dallas already wanted to get rid of him. Smith Jr. is a bit one-dimensional as a driving PG, but there's hope for him if he can make his game a bit less based on his athletism.

Derrick White (24 years) 9,9 pts / 3,7 reb / 3,9 ast

NO, I didn't even know this guy a year ago, but the Spurs have a knack of finding undiscovered talent. He's much better than his raw numbers indicate. I think he'll stay under the radar for a long time.

Trae Young (20 years) 19,1 pts / 3,7 reb / 8,1 ast

YES, seldom will a rookie have had the freedom to do whatever he wanted like Young. Anyway, the talent is evident and he has many years to further develop his game. Atlanta's future looks bright.

Collin Sexton (20 years) 16,7 pts / 2,9 reb / 3,0 ast

NO, very tough call. A 20-year old rookie PG who scores 16,7 points a game and shoots 40% from 3-point-land. What speaks against him though is that he isn't much of a playmaker and he's on a franchise that probably will be bad for years.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (20 years) 10,8 pts / 2,8 reb / 3,3 ast

YES, I believe that SGA is a bit over-hyped, but all the tools are there to become a well-rounded player. The new Mike Conley? A guy who deserved to have been an All Star, I think SGA will be more lucky.

[RodyTur10]

Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo (27 years) 18,8 pts / 5,6 reb / 5,2 ast

ALREADY, hopefully Oladipo will return from his injury as good as he was. Indiana needs his presence to be a challenger in the Eastern Conference.

CJ McCollum (27 years) 21,0 pts / 4,0 reb / 3,0 ast

YES, McCollum is already 27 and the competition for All Star slots for guards in the West is enormous. His great performances in the playoffs (averaging 24,7) could help him over the bridge. Portland isn't just Lillard.

Gary Harris (24 years) 12,9 pts / 2,8 reb / 2,2 ast

NO, Harris went from 17,5 PPG (59,7 TS%) in his contract year to 12,9 PPG (52,6 TS%) this year. I think Denver would be smart to explore trading options, before his value plummets. Especially with a decent replacement in Malik Beasley.

Andrew Wiggins (24 years) 18,1 pts / 4,8 reb / 2,5 ast

NO, his scoring numbers feel empty. And rightfully so. There's no one in the league that shoots worse than Wiggins on that many attempts. The bad thing is that there are no signs of improvement. He's a millstone around Minnesota's neck.

Zach LaVine (24 years) 23,7 pts / 4,7 reb / 4,5 ast

YES, this must be a suprise. But there's no denying in that his numbers are impressive and he's a 37% 3-point-shooter for his career. Being a legit scoring option will make you an All Star. His enemy is his health.

Devin Booker (22 years) 26,6 pts / 4,1 reb / 6,8 ast

YES, when the novelty is gone, people quickly turn their attention towards the new group of potential stars. But Booker deserves the spotlights. Once Phoenix starts to win some games, everybody will realize that there's a new superstar coming.

Josh Richardson (25 years) 16,6 pts / 3,6 reb / 4,1 ast

NO, this is difficult. He's improving year by year and also a fine defensive player. But he hasn't shown much on the big stage. He played in the playoffs twice and only averaged 7 PPG. I could be wrong on Richardson.

Buddy Hield (26 years) 20,7 pts / 5,0 reb / 2,5 ast

YES, what's the difference between Klay Thompson and Buddy Hield? I mean it seriously. Thompson is better defensively, but all the rest indicates that they're almost on the same level. Fox/Hield is a dream backcourt. 

Malcolm Brogdon (26 years) 15,6 pts / 4,5 reb / 3,2 ast

NO, many people will say yes, but Brogdon is not really a star. A very efficient, well rounded role player that is what Brogdon is. If he stays in Milwaukee (what I expect) he could make one though.

Josh Jackson (22 years) 11,5 pts / 4,4 reb / 2,3 ast

NO, I wasn't sure whether I should have had him at the SF position. Doesn't really matter though. At the moment Jackson seems a little lost. Maybe on a different team he'll have more success, but that's not something I want to bet on.

Donovan Mitchell (22 years) 23,8 pts / 4,1 reb / 4,2 ast

YES, not much doubt about Mitchell becoming an All Star. I don't hold it against him that he wasn't able to perform on the same level during the playoffs with so few other offensive weapons in Utah. Boy needs some help.

Kevin Huerter (20 years) 9,7 pts / 3,3 reb / 2,9 ast

NO, I love Huerter. I think his future is bright. To become an All Star you have to become special though. That's a very long way for Huerter and he'll play 2nd fiddle as long as Young is his companion.

[RodyTur10]

Small Forwards

Otto Porter (26 years) 13,9 pts / 5,6 reb / 2,1 ast

YES, I think that the Wizards made a massive mistake by trading Porter for peanuts. He's a two-way wing, who shoots 41% from three in his career. In the 15 games in Chicago he was stellar. Next season will be his breakthrough.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (24 years) 27,7 pts / 12,5 reb / 5,9 ast

ALREADY, what more is there to say about the Greek Freak? Win a title?

TJ Warren (25 years) 18,0 pts / 4,0 reb / 1,5 ast

NO, this was much closer than I expected it to be. Warren has become a really good scorer on all three levels. That's also all he does. That's why I gave the nod to some younger guys with more potential.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (26 years) 14,1 pts / 3,5 reb / 3,8 ast

NO, he's another valuable player for the Kings. However I don't think he'll get much better than he is now. Maybe a 6th man award is something to strive for in the future.

Justise Winslow (23 years) 12,6 pts / 5,4 reb / 4,3 ast

NO, Winslow is still soo young and as a ball handler much more effective than in previous years. I really like him (as did Danny Ainge  ), but I doubt he'll become an All Star. Glad that Charlotte turned that offer down.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (23 years) 15,2 pts / 4,7 reb / 1,2 ast

NO, what is Oubre Jr. even doing on this list, are you thinking? We'll two-way wingers are a rare commodity. The Wizards were lucky to have two of them...and they traded them away for a washed up Ariza, Parker and Portis. Idiots.

Caris LeVert (24   years) 13,7 pts / 3,8 reb / 3,9 ast

YES, interesting one. This is a guy who averaged 21 PPG against the 76ers, very impressive. After all the injuries I expect that we will finally see how good LeVert is (and not just Nets fans, who love him).

Brandon Ingram (21 years) 18,3 pts / 5,1 reb / 3,0 ast

NO, I think it's unfair how high expectations were for him. He's really productive for a 21-year-old. However I don't think LA is the best place for him and blood clots are very scary. Without all that stuff going on I would have bet on him though.

Jaylen Brown (22 years) 13,0 pts / 4,2 reb / 1,4 ast

YES, is this Celtics bias? Most casual NBA fans won't be impressed what Brown has done this year. However, we've seen his performances during the playoffs and he has had All-defense votes. Benefit of the doubt for me.

Jayson Tatum (21 years) 15,7 pts / 6,0 reb / 2,1 ast

YES, I'm not as big of a fan of Tatum as other Celtics fans. Don't think he'll be a MVP-caliber superstar. However his shooting stroke is for real and he has a great NBA-body. He'll have a long succesful career for sure.

Luka Doncic (20 years) 21,2 pts / 7,8 reb / 6,0 ast

YES, I was thinking about no. Just kidding. What an incredible rookie year has he had. Doncic will be a superstar, how can he not?

Kevin Knox (19 years) 12,8 pts / 4,5 reb / 1,1 ast

NO, the thing Knox has going for him is his age, since other than that there isn't much to be excited about. He was the worst shooter and the worst starting player in the NBA this season. Could be a bust.

[RodyTur10]

Power Forwards

Aaron Gordon (23 years) 16,0 pts / 7,4 reb / 3,7 ast

NO, Gordon makes small steps every year, though probably close to his ceiling. I think that younger guys will surpass him. He's a very fine player, but not that exciting.

Julius Randle (24 years) 21,4 pts / 8,7 reb / 3,1 ast

YES, Randle has had an excellent season. Re-signing with New Orleans does make an awkward fit with Zion, but if Randle can keep up his level of play it will eventually get him into the All Star game.

Kristaps Porzingis (23 years) 22,7 pts / 6,6 reb / 1,2 ast (2017-2018)

ALREADY, I think many people will be curious to see how the duo of Doncic and Porzingis will work in Dallas. I always thought that the Zinger was a bit overrated, being a secondary option to Doncic could be perfect.

Montrezl Harrell (25 years) 16,6 pts / 6,5 reb / 2,0 ast

NO, how to put bench performances into perspective is tricky. During the playoffs Harrell averaged 18 PPG in 26 minutes on 73,9 TS%! That's simply amazing. His game is also pretty simple, therefore I'm ignoring him for now.

Pascal Siakam (25 years) 16,9 pts / 6,9 reb / 3,1 ast

YES, Siakam will most likely win MIP-award. Well deserved. Didn't see this coming. His All Star spot next year is already almost guaranteed. Overall I think he's hyped too much right now, don't think he's much better than Brown for instance.

Jonathan Isaac (21 years) 9,6 pts / 5,5 reb / 1,1 ast

NO, loved his potential and still do. After two years in the league Isaac definitely hasn't shown yet what he's capable of. However he needs a Butler/George type of evolution to become a star and that's unlikely to happen.

Lauri Markkanen (22 years) 18,7 pts / 9,0 reb / 1,4 ast

YES, seems like a no-brainer, but I've never been really impressed by him and find him a weak defender. But averaging those numbers and being an excellent shooter I can't deny his high chance of becoming an All Star.

Bam Adebayo (21 years) 8,9 pts / 7,3 reb / 2,2 ast

NO, I'm kind of surprised that Adebayo hasn't done more already. Rumors about a potential Whiteside trade have been going on for months, but Bam is still playing bench minutes.

John Collins (21 years) 19,5 pts / 9,8 reb / 2,0 ast

YES, this is one of the biggest yesses. Don't sleep on John Collins! He's a fantastic rebounder, good shooter (inside and outside), excellent finisher and a great athlete. He's a problem to defend, especially to avoid second-chance opportunities.

Kyle Kuzma (23 years) 18,7 pts / 5,5 reb / 2,5 ast

NO, another LA-prospect that I say no to. Situation is very different to Ingram though. I could see Ingram succeed under the right circumstances, but Kuzma is just a bigger Jordan Clarkson (their stats are very similar).

Marvin Bagley (20 years) 14,9 pts / 7,6 reb / 1,0 ast

YES, in an amazing rookie class he didn't stand out as much as others, but Bagley has been far from disappointing. Just became 20 a month ago, star potential is still evident.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (19 years) 13,8 pts / 4,7 reb / 1,1 ast

YES, very efficient on offense and shows flashes of great defensive potential. He's Memphis' new hope. I think his best position is PF and not C, because of his weak rebounding. All the rest is fixable to become one of the better big men in the league.

[RodyTur10]

Centers

Rudy Gobert (26 years) 15,9 pts / 12,9 reb / 2,0 ast

ALREADY, best defensive center in the league and probably will be for years. Has two All-NBA selections, but not an All Star selection so far. They are clearly doing something wrong with that.

Nikola Jokic (24 years) 20,1 pts / 10,8 reb / 7,3 ast

ALREADY, it's a joy to watch Jokic. We'll have a couple of years to figure out who's better: Jokic or Embiid?

Joel Embiid (25 years) 27,5 pts / 13,6 reb / 3,7 ast

ALREADY, massive numbers and the scary part is that there's still a lot of room for improvement. Where would the Sixers be without him?

Jusuf Nurkic (24 years) 15,6 pts / 10,4 reb / 3,2 ast

NO, it pains me to write a no here. Nurkic was great this season, but it's hard to imagine that his horrible injury won't have an effect on his future career. Hope the best for him.

Clint Capela (25 years) 16,6 pts / 12,7 reb / 1,4 ast

NO, as others I see Capela's production purely as a result of Harden's game and system. It's the perfect situation for him. In the end Capela is just a very useful role player, who's game doesn't resemble that of an All Star type of player.

Karl-Anthony Towns (23 years) 24,4 pts / 12,4 reb / 3,4 ast

ALREADY, he already has All Star selections and there are many more to come. Towns is a superstar and I don't understand people who doubt his ability to be a winning player.

Myles Turner (23 years) 13,3 pts / 7,2 reb / 1,6 ast

NO, there are 'easy' spots available in the East, so I could be wrong. But Turner just isn't agressive on offense, with Oladipo injured he had all the opportunity to raise his game and didn't. Good player, just not a star.

Domantas Sabonis (23 years) 14,1 pts / 9,3 reb / 2,9 ast

YES, the thing is that Sabonis averaged these numbers in just 25 MPG. I see an upcoming star. His defense needs improvement, but with Turner he has a great partner. They can cover each other's weaknesses,

Jarrett Allen (21 years) 10,9 pts / 8,4 reb / 1,4 ast

NO, it's hard for rim-running centers to get the production needed to draw the necessary attention for All Star selections. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Allen will become an above average center. Not a real star.

Deandre Ayton (20 years) 16,3 pts / 10,3 reb / 1,8 ast

YES, being a rookie center is very hard, especially on a young and weak defense team as the Suns. I think Ayton got too much blame for that. A good coach and some better management decisions and things can change very quickly in Phoenix.

Wendell Carter Jr. (20 years) 10,3 pts / 7,0 reb / 1,8 ast

YES, had to think a long time about this one. It will take a long time, but I give Carter the benefit of the doubt and the reason is that he has soo many areas in which he can improve. Potential to become one of the most allround centers in the NBA.

Mitchell Robinson (21 years) 7,3 pts / 6,4 reb / 0,6 ast

NO, if you want a block party, be sure to invite him. There's potential to become the new DeAndre Jordan, but I'm not a fan. Don't see much success coming for the Knicks either.

[JBcat]

TP for the hard work.

I agree with much of what you have.  A few things that stand out to me.   Randle had eye opening stats.  If he ever becomes an all star that’s another one along with Russell the Lakers let go.  If Sabonis ever becomes an star what a great trade the Pacers made. It’s very good already.

Not sure Potter has another level to become an star. Not sure about Shai either.

What a disappointment if Wiggins and Ball with how hyped coming out of college never become an all star.

[mr. dee]

People don't believe in Towns because he seems to shy away from physicality. Unless he's a great perimeter scorer like Dirk, I don't see how he can single-handedly career a team deep in the playoffs.