The risk and reward of drafting Joel Embiid - Phil Enquirer

[colincb]

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20150616_The_risk_and_reward_of_drafting_Joel_Embiid.html

Funny that the date on the story is 6/16, 3AM.  It notes that Lakers could take Russell, but that's hardly news. Russell is this years' advanced stats darling (Smart was in 2014), but also supposedly one of the higher risks of a being a bust.

It will be interesting if the Sixers take Porzingis. Means another couple years of tank without a PG (though many see Russell as more of a SG anyways.) Taking Okafor OTOH would be pretty detrimental to the trade value of Embiid.

Still betting Russell myself as of today.

[Who]

This is a copy and paste from a commentator on one of those Embiid articles on philly.com

Russell is the over-hyped by the media ESPN highlight darling of this draft. He is not a franchise player at all.

To further your point......in the 9 toughest games of the year against top 25 or NCAA tournament teams his FG % went down from 45% to 37% and his 3PT % went down from 41% to 31% and his team went I believe 2-7 or 3-6.......and those numbers include the 28 points he had against VCU in the tournament who by the way was the shortest team in terms of height of the 9 teams we are talking about.

Watch the Arizona game who has an NBA size front-line....Arizona never doubled him on the perimeter because they knew he couldn't beat them at the rack so they just guarded him at the perimeter and he struggled.

He will struggle to get the rack and finish in the NBA which will make him easier to guard at the next level because he lacks explosion. So if he isn't Steph Curry in terms of being able to create a shot in small spaces with the quickest release maybe in the league he won't be great and lucky to be just good.

BIG 10 has produced the least amount of NBA all-star appearances in the last 15 years of any of the BIG 6 power conferences by far....

I remember Evan Turner had similar situation. Very good overall stats but happened mostly against the weak teams in Ohio's schedule. Against the top teams or teams with athletic wing defenders (like he'd have to play in NBA), his stats went way way down.

Worrying to see D'Russell's stats take such a large hit against the best teams. 

[Moranis]

This is a copy and paste from a commentator on one of those Embiid articles on philly.com

Russell is the over-hyped by the media ESPN highlight darling of this draft. He is not a franchise player at all.

To further your point......in the 9 toughest games of the year against top 25 or NCAA tournament teams his FG % went down from 45% to 37% and his 3PT % went down from 41% to 31% and his team went I believe 2-7 or 3-6.......and those numbers include the 28 points he had against VCU in the tournament who by the way was the shortest team in terms of height of the 9 teams we are talking about.

Watch the Arizona game who has an NBA size front-line....Arizona never doubled him on the perimeter because they knew he couldn't beat them at the rack so they just guarded him at the perimeter and he struggled.

He will struggle to get the rack and finish in the NBA which will make him easier to guard at the next level because he lacks explosion. So if he isn't Steph Curry in terms of being able to create a shot in small spaces with the quickest release maybe in the league he won't be great and lucky to be just good.

BIG 10 has produced the least amount of NBA all-star appearances in the last 15 years of any of the BIG 6 power conferences by far....

I remember Evan Turner had similar situation. Very good overall stats but happened mostly against the weak teams in Ohio's schedule. Against the top teams or teams with athletic wing defenders (like he'd have to play in NBA), his stats went way way down.

Worrying to see D'Russell's stats take such a large hit against the best teams.

and yet Turner has scored just fine in the NBA.  They said the same kind of things about Michael Redd and he fell all the way to the 2nd round.  I'm not sure I'd take Russell at 3, but he will be a very good pro and for a team like Philly that already has two potential franchise player big men, they could use someone like Russell, even if he doesn't have the biggest peak of those available to them.

[colincb]

This is a copy and paste from a commentator on one of those Embiid articles on philly.com

Russell is the over-hyped by the media ESPN highlight darling of this draft. He is not a franchise player at all.

To further your point......in the 9 toughest games of the year against top 25 or NCAA tournament teams his FG % went down from 45% to 37% and his 3PT % went down from 41% to 31% and his team went I believe 2-7 or 3-6.......and those numbers include the 28 points he had against VCU in the tournament who by the way was the shortest team in terms of height of the 9 teams we are talking about.

Watch the Arizona game who has an NBA size front-line....Arizona never doubled him on the perimeter because they knew he couldn't beat them at the rack so they just guarded him at the perimeter and he struggled.

He will struggle to get the rack and finish in the NBA which will make him easier to guard at the next level because he lacks explosion. So if he isn't Steph Curry in terms of being able to create a shot in small spaces with the quickest release maybe in the league he won't be great and lucky to be just good.

BIG 10 has produced the least amount of NBA all-star appearances in the last 15 years of any of the BIG 6 power conferences by far....

I remember Evan Turner had similar situation. Very good overall stats but happened mostly against the weak teams in Ohio's schedule. Against the top teams or teams with athletic wing defenders (like he'd have to play in NBA), his stats went way way down.

Worrying to see D'Russell's stats take such a large hit against the best teams.

Yes it is, but if the Sixers don't take a guard who can pass, you can add at least another year to the rebuild. Great for true believers who like to whip themselves into a frenzy of joy, but let's see them two years down the road when they still don't have a starting 5 put together.

[MBunge]

Russell was vastly better than Turner as a freshman, so I don't know if that's a useful comparison.

I would think, though, that anyone getting excited about a very, very good but not spectacular freshman would be a bit leery after Anthony Bennett.

Mike

[Denis998]

They should go for Winslow now, and go after Briscoe in next years draft. Or contrary to that, draft a PG now, and go for the SF sweepstakes next year, in Ben Simmons and Jalen Brown

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

[Who]

Russell was vastly better than Turner as a freshman, so I don't know if that's a useful comparison.

I think the point was -- and I do not know or watch enough college basketball to confirm -- is that Ohio State play a weak schedule (relative to other big teams)  and that their player's stats tend to be inflated because of this. To get a better reflection of the individual player's talent (to better forecast how well they'll do in the NBA) you want to isolate and analyze how they did against strong teams + teams with NBA caliber athlete / defenders.

This was one of the big red flags on Evan Turner prior to the draft. He struggled badly against teams with NBA caliber defenders was seen to be padding his stat lines against weaker sides. This was the best forecast I saw for Turner struggling (as aa #2 pick and All-Star hopeful) in the NBA. I undervalued those struggles at the time and I wonder how much weight I should put on Russell's worrying stats noted up above. If anyone watched any of those games, I'd be interested in what they have to say about Russell's performances there.

Does he have problems creating dribble penetration against NBA caliber defenders /  athletes? Does he create separation well enough to get off his (beautiful) jump-shot to score in one-on-one situations? Was the problem that he was playing PG? Will he fare better as NBA SG? Does he do better or struggle against smaller defenders  (PGs, combo guards) or bigger defenders (wings, SG / SF)?

[MBunge]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

They played different positions but their level of production was fairly close in college.  People forget that Bennett was seen as a top 10 pick in that draft.

My points is that people seem to be going bonkers for Russell, but he's not nearly in the same class as Durant and Michael Beasley were as freshman.  He looks good but when people start talking about taking him over Okafor, whose floor looks like a bigger and better passing Al Jefferson, some perspective is being lost.

Mike

[footey]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

They played different positions but their level of production was fairly close in college.  People forget that Bennett was seen as a top 10 pick in that draft.

My points is that people seem to be going bonkers for Russell, but he's not nearly in the same class as Durant and Michael Beasley were as freshman.  He looks good but when people start talking about taking him over Okafor, whose floor looks like a bigger and better passing Al Jefferson, some perspective is being lost.

Mike

Completely agree.  Could mean he slides to 4. Pretty sure Phil pounces on him, which would be ideal, as I really enjoy watching the Knicks continue to fail.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

They played different positions but their level of production was fairly close in college.  People forget that Bennett was seen as a top 10 pick in that draft.

My points is that people seem to be going bonkers for Russell, but he's not nearly in the same class as Durant and Michael Beasley were as freshman.  He looks good but when people start talking about taking him over Okafor, whose floor looks like a bigger and better passing Al Jefferson, some perspective is being lost.

Mike

Okafor is the worst defensive center to be a top prospect since Bargs. He's beyond useless on that side of the ball.

Russell's floor is a good spot up shooter with an excellent passing feel.

[MBunge]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

They played different positions but their level of production was fairly close in college.  People forget that Bennett was seen as a top 10 pick in that draft.

My points is that people seem to be going bonkers for Russell, but he's not nearly in the same class as Durant and Michael Beasley were as freshman.  He looks good but when people start talking about taking him over Okafor, whose floor looks like a bigger and better passing Al Jefferson, some perspective is being lost.

Mike

Okafor is the worst defensive center to be a top prospect since Bargs. He's beyond useless on that side of the ball.

Russell's floor is a good spot up shooter with an excellent passing feel.

According to sports-reference.com, Okafor's defensive rating per 100 possessions is 95.4.  Russell's rating is 94.5.

Mike

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Are Anthony Bennett and Russell really good comps? Russell's a much better player than Bennett was, with skills that if they translate a pretty important in today's NBA.

They played different positions but their level of production was fairly close in college.  People forget that Bennett was seen as a top 10 pick in that draft.

My points is that people seem to be going bonkers for Russell, but he's not nearly in the same class as Durant and Michael Beasley were as freshman.  He looks good but when people start talking about taking him over Okafor, whose floor looks like a bigger and better passing Al Jefferson, some perspective is being lost.

Mike

Okafor is the worst defensive center to be a top prospect since Bargs. He's beyond useless on that side of the ball.

Russell's floor is a good spot up shooter with an excellent passing feel.

According to sports-reference.com, Okafor's defensive rating per 100 possessions is 95.4.  Russell's rating is 94.5.

Mike

You can't possibly be serious with this. They were on different teams, play different positions and played in different conferences.

Russell's probably not going to be an elite wing defender, but that's a lot less important for an elite defense than rim protection.