Future Power Rankings: Celtics 12th

[Greenbean]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-3-091110

Here is a list put together by, you guessed it, John Hollinger. Sorry but it's an insider article. Here he tries to predict the future power rankings of NBA teams. In his explanation of why the C's are 12th, he makes pretty good sense. Basically, we have to rely on free agency after next season to re-stock unless we get lucky in the draft where we will be picking between 20-30 for the next two seasons.

Unfortunately, Danny's track record has been great in the draft while questionable in free agency. There are so many variables that go into building a team. I mean I wonder what this list would have looked like in 2007. The Celts wouldnt have been anywhere near the top I will tell you that. Either way the future of this team is something I have been thinking about alot lately. I am enjoying this run so much I never want to go back to decade long rebuilding.

What does everyone else think about this list? Should we be higher? Lower?

[Roy Hobbs]

How far into the future does it look?

I like if you're talking about next season, 12th is way too low, as our starting five automatically gets us into the top four.

If he's talking about three or four years from now, 12th might be generous.  We're going to have to do a lot of maneuvering to avoid a major, major falloff.  Rondo is the only young guy under long term contract, and he's not good enough (and I doubt he's ever good enough) to get a team into playoff contention all on his own.  Like the vast majority of players, he's going to need major help.

[Rondo2287]

I was actually thinking about this the last night, and I was thinking about posting it on here today.  Where do you think we would be if the ping pong balls had fallen differently and we had gotten Kevin Durant. 

Im assuming Paul would have been traded.  Theo's expiring contract could hopefully turn into a decent free agent. But our core would look something like.

C:Perk,
PF:Big Al,Gomes
SF:Durant,Gomes
SG:Delonte, Wally
PG:Rondo, Bassy

Obviously im missing people and im sure wally and bassy wouldnt still be here, but building around Rondo, Big Al, and Durant, would be the best core of young guys in the league.  And thats not considering what DA could have gotten for Pierce in a trade. 

Saying all this, this Durant lead team would not have won a championship, and right now would probably be like the modern day Hawks, so Im glad it didnt happen, but it is still intriguing to think about.

[Cman]

Saying all this, this Durant lead team would not have won a championship, and right now would probably be like the modern day Hawks, so Im glad it didnt happen, but it is still intriguing to think about.

Yes, and yes. 
I am quite happy with the championship, and wouldn't trade it for anything right now -- I am still savoring that sweet blowout  W over LA to seal the deal.

To the OP, I don't understand.  Hollinger has us ranked 12th *next year*, but has us picking 20-30 in the draft for the next two years?  I agree with Roy, the "window" is for this year and next.  The big worry is in 2011-12 season.  I think ranking us 12th for that season is about right, but so so much can and will change over the next two years, it is so hard to say.  For example: where do Dwade, LBJ, Bosh end up?  Do Durant and Oden really become the difference makers people expect?  How about Rose?  Does Kobe have a career-ending injury?  Just too many variables.

[houlana]

hi guys. Hollinger is predicting future power rankings for years to come and the celtics are in the middle.

here is the link.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-1-091110

please share your thoughts.

[houlana]

he is basically saying that because our guys are getting older, our future is not looking good because of late round draft picks.

but i think that our core guys will resign their last few years for a small amount of money. we will have a lot of money to spend on free agents, in an attractive franchise and NBA city. if we cant get hight draft pics.

[Chris]

Since this is just looking into the future until 2012-2013, I think this is pretty accurate.  Unless they decide to completely blow it up, guys like Pierce and Garnett will keep them fighting for playoff spots, even if they fall out of the elite. 

[footey]

Hollinger has too much time on his hands. 

[Chris]

Hollinger has too much time on his hands. 

Its probably too early in the season to do any statistical analysis that has any sort of significance, so he needs to find some way to fill his column. 

[BudweiserCeltic]

Since this is just looking into the future until 2012-2013, I think this is pretty accurate.  Unless they decide to completely blow it up, guys like Pierce and Garnett will keep them fighting for playoff spots, even if they fall out of the elite. 

Yet he has the Lakers at 3rd. It's an aging team too.

The Cavs are 4th in Player rankings just because they have LeBron, yet it ignores how crappy the roster will probably look like after this season.

Hollinger keeps harping about our age and injuries, yet he doesn't seem to apply it to other teams as heavy as he does to the Celtics.

Ray, Pierce, and KG keep coming in better shape than the year before... Ray coming off one of his best seasons of his career and Pierce starting this season as good as ever. I think the decline Hollinger is alluding to is highly exaggerated.

Plus, he ignores the acquisition of Sheed in his analysis.

[Chris]

Since this is just looking into the future until 2012-2013, I think this is pretty accurate.  Unless they decide to completely blow it up, guys like Pierce and Garnett will keep them fighting for playoff spots, even if they fall out of the elite. 

Yet he has the Lakers at 3rd. It's an aging team too.

The Cavs are 4th in Player rankings just because they have LeBron, yet it ignores how crappy the roster will probably look like after this season.

Hollinger keeps harping about our age and injuries, yet he doesn't seem to apply it to other teams as heavy as he does to the Celtics.

Ray, Pierce, and KG keep coming in better shape than the year before... Ray coming off one of his best seasons of his career and Pierce starting this season as good as ever. I think the decline Hollinger is alluding to is highly exaggerated.

Plus, he ignores the acquisition of Sheed in his analysis.

While the Lakers are aging, I think they have a few less miles on them than the C's.  Kobe, Gasol, Odom, and Artest are all a few years younger than the C's key players are. 

I think if the cores stay together for the next 3-4 years, by 2011-2012, the Lakers will be doing much better than the C's, whose stars will likely be well past the top of the hill, while guys like Gasol and Odom are just getting there.

[wdleehi]

I read this, and thought, really? 


Who really has a clue?


Remember when the Bullets were the team of the future with Webber and Howard? 

[Reyquila]

We cant complain. After the 20 years of frustration that followed the Bird era, management decided it was time to do something about it. The bottom line is that we gave up only ONE player of proven value (Big Al), and got a championship team in return. Thats the basic truth. The players we gave up wouldnt have won a flag.
The real cost that we have paid to win that flag is the positioning in the subsequent drafts that has resulted as a direct consecuence of our success.
We have drafted low and we have not drafted well, for whatever reasons. Monday morning quarterbacking, we could have done better  drafting  but we didnt. Not going to beat a dead horse now. We have not been able to infuse young blood in the team with quality players that would substitute our big 3 or big 4 when mother time calls them home. G.Green was a bust and so were we Greene, TA, and so on, and on and on. We have not drafted well, for whichever reasons and that is why we will have a void in quality young players when our big 3-4 slowly fade away, as they will certainly.

[Evantime34]

What is perplexing about this to me is, the Blazers are first and not the Thunder. Durant, Westbrook, Green, and Hraden are all going to be studs.

[Greenbean]

How far into the future does it look?

I like if you're talking about next season, 12th is way too low, as our starting five automatically gets us into the top four.

If he's talking about three or four years from now, 12th might be generous.  We're going to have to do a lot of maneuvering to avoid a major, major falloff.  Rondo is the only young guy under long term contract, and he's not good enough (and I doubt he's ever good enough) to get a team into playoff contention all on his own.  Like the vast majority of players, he's going to need major help.

He's actually predicting the next three years collectively (which is even more rediculous when you think about it). He has put together a decent metric to determine which teams are in the best shape.

We gained points in market (FA desirability), management, and money.

We were lower on the list in players (theyre old), and draft (well be drafting in the mid to late picks).

What really kills us on his list is "players" which is weighted the highest. We are 17th in the league according to him which I agree with because of Rondo being the only star signed long term. However i would argue that management should be weighted just as much as players since the celts will have opportunities to sign replacement talent in the near future, we just need the right people pulling the strings. Let's just say Danny's job is going to get really difficult again in the not so distant future.