CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: PhoSita on October 19, 2017, 10:23:11 AM
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After the Hayward injury, it's time to revise expectations.
Here is the upcoming schedule with my predictions. Share yours. How do you think the Celts will do between now and December 1?
0-2 on October 19th.
10/20 - @PHI - L ... Embiid and Simmons win their home opener
10/24 - vs NYK - W ... first win of the season at home against the Knicks
10/26 - @ MIL - L ... more of what we saw against Giannis last night.
10/28 - @ MIA - W ... first win against a solid opponent
10/30 - vs SAS - L ... Kawhi is back.
Record on Halloween: 2-5
11/1 - vs SAC - W
11/3 - @ OKC - L
11/5 - @ ORL - W
11/6 - @ ATL - L ... Hawks always play us tough, esp. on a back-to-back
11/8 - vs LAL - W ... gotta beat the hated Lakers
11/10 - vs CHA - W
11/12 - vs TOR - W ... a feel good home victory over a division rival
11/14 - @ BRK - W
11/16 - vs GSW - L
11/18 - @ ATL - W
11/20 - @ DAL - L
11/22 - @ MIA - L
11/24 - vs ORL - W
11/25 - @ IND - L
11/27 - vs DET - W
11/30 - vs PHI - W
Record on Dec 1st: 12 - 11
Looks like November is a relatively easy month, but given how this team is looking right now, 12-11 seems a bit optimistic. Still, should be doable.
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I'm probably too much of an optimist or have high expectations but I'd only chalk up 3 of those games as probable losses: GSW, SAS and OKC. Milwarkee's a likely loss only because they've beaten us and will face us again while still trying to figure things out. Toronto game could be tough but we're at home with more games under our belt to figure things out.
the rest are all very winnable games.
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I'm probably too much of an optimist or have high expectations but I'd only chalk up 3 of those games as probable losses: GSW, SAS and OKC. Milwarkee's a likely loss only because they've beaten us and will face us again while still trying to figure things out. Toronto game could be tough but we're at home with more games under our belt to figure things out.
the rest are all very winnable games.
I agree, but I think given where this team is at right now, "winnable" games are probably 50-50 at best.
They've got the talent and athleticism to trade baskets and make plays most of the game, but the defense is not good, and they aren't going to execute very well at the end of games. That's a recipe for losing a lot of winnable games.
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I think there's some overreacting to the Bucks game here. It was the worst matchup possible for the team maybe. How the Celtics are now without Gordon, the Bucks actually are a pretty similar team trying to do similar things (be long, versatile, and get in transition). Without running crisp sets (or actually plays correctly at all, if you heard about Stevens threatening to sit guys because of how badly plays were being run) you will not counter their length.
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I think there's some overreacting to the Bucks game here. It was the worst matchup possible for the team maybe. How the Celtics are now without Gordon, the Bucks actually are a pretty similar team trying to do similar things (be long, versatile, and get in transition). Without running crisp sets (or actually plays correctly at all, if you heard about Stevens threatening to sit guys because of how badly plays were being run) you will not counter their length.
I think the Bucks are a bad matchup. Before the season began, I actually had the Bucks beating the Celts (with Hayward) in the playoffs.
That said, the Celts are a very young team. In many respects, they are now a lot like last year's team, except that they are simultaneously bigger and more talented on the wing, but also much less experienced.
We should not expect the team to be crisp and consistent for a while. Late game execution will be problematic. It'll probably come down to Kyrie hitting difficult outside jumpers.
I believe in Brad's ability to get these guys working together and to help Kyrie figure out how to be a true superstar -- i.e. a guy who doesn't just get his, but who makes his whole team function more effectively. I just think it's going to take time.
If this team is around .500 about halfway through the season, that should be counted as a victory. They can try to go on a run in March and April to end up closer to 50 wins than 40 wins.
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If this team is around .500 about halfway through the season, that should be counted as a victory. They can try to go on a run in March and April to end up closer to 50 wins than 40 wins.
I don't disagree. There is reason to be pretty optimistic I think though. As I said, it sounds like plays were being run incorrectly all over the place (young guys having to learn 3 positions or maybe even more) and then some guys that were in that game (Theis, Nader, Larkin, Semi) hadn't played with the first unit at all, even in practice.
I think shooting by far my biggest concern, but I think that can be figured out and will improve with good sets. I believe in the shooting of Nader, Semi, and Larkin. I think Morris could also be a huge part, basically plugging into Gordon's absence and providing some of that scoring ability, which would really help Kyrie out. Something needs to be done to punish teams for trapping so hard on Kyrie off of screens like the Bucks did. Kyrie can only do so much himself in that situation vs a long Bucks team. We haven't seen Kyrie get hardly any easy looks at the rim and that's because of the spacing.
And we all know Stevens takes his time to figure out rotations and combinations.
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I still see no reason why this team shouldn't win 50 games. They obviously haven't gelled yet, but when they do I see them as a better team than 2016-2017.
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I guess my 82-0 prediction is out the window now. Now I'll have to go with 80-2...
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Before the injury, I thought due to the fact that the Celtics only had 4 players from last year and with the losses of Crowder and Bradley especially; and the fact the new guys had to gel together, I thought it was possible the Celtics might not reach the same win total as last year.
My prediction pre-Hayward injury was 48 wins, which I know was on the very low end of all the predictions. Every year many Celtics fans bleed green and white and optimism is high.
After the injury, I think that the Celtics will have trouble making the playoffs and probably won't be a .500 team unfortunately.
I think the Celtics will have trouble outrebounding their opponents and I think the defense will be less with the losses of Crowder and Bradley which is why I think the Celtics are going to struggle. Of course, the season is only 2 games old, so it remains to be seen what affect Hayward's injury will have long term.
MikeB
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The only way we can still fight with Cavs is to have a magician on the team. Thank God we have Brad Stevens. I believe he is a kind of magician. He just needs some time.
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Before the injury, I thought due to the fact that the Celtics only had 4 players from last year and with the losses of Crowder and Bradley especially; and the fact the new guys had to gel together, I thought it was possible the Celtics might not reach the same win total as last year.
My prediction pre-Hayward injury was 48 wins, which I know was on the very low end of all the predictions. Every year many Celtics fans bleed green and white and optimism is high.
After the injury, I think that the Celtics will have trouble making the playoffs and probably won't be a .500 team unfortunately.
I think the Celtics will have trouble outrebounding their opponents and I think the defense will be less with the losses of Crowder and Bradley which is why I think the Celtics are going to struggle. Of course, the season is only 2 games old, so it remains to be seen what affect Hayward's injury will have long term.
MikeB
With all these bad teams in the east, you still think the Celtics arent going to make the playoffs?
in 2015 we suited up 22 players, had no constant starting lineup, had no all-star and still made the playoffs.
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80-2 Hayward was holding us back
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48.
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31 according to my cavs coworkers in Ohio. They guarantee Kyrie will be injured and they also said he cannot csrry a team and had a horrible win loss without Lebron playing.
Not inly do I feel bad for Hayward but also feel bad for the families who bought season tickets. Getting that 8 million exception is. not going to miraculously create a player worthy of that salary or even come close to becoming a dependable scoring option capable of 20 per game.
Let our young one’s get tons of playing time...
If no Kyrie injury, we will squeak out 42 wins...if he goes down, get ready for miltiple tanking threads....We have zero chance of getting to finals without Hayward and zero chance of beating top teams in playoffs as welll. Love Tatum and Brown but they are simply not ready to carry us to finals to beat Warriors.
Unless Kyrie morphs into Jordan or Kobe, This will be a season of watching our future develop.
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I still think we hit at least 48. Hayward is a big loss obviously but it'll just mean this team pushes harder in the regular season to make up for it. They'll be out with a point to prove and will want to be in the best possible position for when Hayward comes back
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Not inly do I feel bad for Hayward but also feel bad for the families who bought season tickets.
From a STH point of view, I appreciate the sympathy. Don't worry too much about us, though. We're long-term and there are a lot of seasons ahead of us, more good than bad.
I'm not worried about the team long-term but, from what I saw on Wednesday, there are some cohesion issues (not to mention the team's inability to make free throws or finish at the rim). The season is going to start off disappointing, like last year did.
The plus side is that these guys are playing with heart. Jayson Tatum didn't get a lot of attention on Wednesday, but I thought he looked like a veteran out there. The young team may be inexperienced but they want to win.
I'm at 10-13 for the first 23 games, with a final record of 44-38. I know that would require outperformance against the West, but I'm good with that.
Mike
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31 according to my cavs coworkers in Ohio. They guarantee Kyrie will be injured and they also said he cannot csrry a team and had a horrible win loss without Lebron playing.
This is actually a really important point I hadn't considered until you mentioned it.
Here are Kyrie's games played so far in this career:
2012 - 51
2013 - 59
2014 - 71
2015 - 75
2016 - 53
2017 - 72
Looks like it's about a 50/50 shot that Kyrie plays 70+ games instead of missing 20-30 games.
If Kyrie misses 20-30 games, on top of Hayward being out, the Celts are going to be in trouble trying to make the playoffs.
Luckily Al Horford is a relatively healthy guy. He missed 14 games last year, but apart from his pectoral injury that wiped out most of a season, he's been pretty durable throughout his career.
Even assuming a relatively healthy season from Kyrie, it looks like we should expect him to miss about 8-10 games. The Celts will have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to lead the team in scoring in those games, with no traditional point guard to set them up.
It's going to be tough.
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31 according to my cavs coworkers in Ohio. They guarantee Kyrie will be injured and they also said he cannot csrry a team and had a horrible win loss without Lebron playing.
This is actually a really important point I hadn't considered until you mentioned it.
Here are Kyrie's games played so far in this career:
2012 - 51
2013 - 59
2014 - 71
2015 - 75
2016 - 53
2017 - 72
Looks like it's about a 50/50 shot that Kyrie plays 70+ games instead of missing 20-30 games.
If Kyrie misses 20-30 games, on top of Hayward being out, the Celts are going to be in trouble trying to make the playoffs.
Luckily Al Horford is a relatively healthy guy. He missed 14 games last year, but apart from his pectoral injury that wiped out most of a season, he's been pretty durable throughout his career.
Even assuming a relatively healthy season from Kyrie, it looks like we should expect him to miss about 8-10 games. The Celts will have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to lead the team in scoring in those games, with no traditional point guard to set them up.
It's going to be tough.
Kyrie's a vegan now. Ought to help with his injury recovery.
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31 according to my cavs coworkers in Ohio. They guarantee Kyrie will be injured and they also said he cannot csrry a team and had a horrible win loss without Lebron playing.
This is actually a really important point I hadn't considered until you mentioned it.
Here are Kyrie's games played so far in this career:
2012 - 51
2013 - 59
2014 - 71
2015 - 75
2016 - 53
2017 - 72
Looks like it's about a 50/50 shot that Kyrie plays 70+ games instead of missing 20-30 games.
If Kyrie misses 20-30 games, on top of Hayward being out, the Celts are going to be in trouble trying to make the playoffs.
Luckily Al Horford is a relatively healthy guy. He missed 14 games last year, but apart from his pectoral injury that wiped out most of a season, he's been pretty durable throughout his career.
Even assuming a relatively healthy season from Kyrie, it looks like we should expect him to miss about 8-10 games. The Celts will have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to lead the team in scoring in those games, with no traditional point guard to set them up.
It's going to be tough.
Kyrie's a vegan now. Ought to help with his injury recovery.
(https://68.media.tumblr.com/5eb3e4d29b5f0e7a073fd29b5714fee2/tumblr_n851ddKwir1r3xthuo4_250.gif)
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31 according to my cavs coworkers in Ohio. They guarantee Kyrie will be injured and they also said he cannot csrry a team and had a horrible win loss without Lebron playing.
This is actually a really important point I hadn't considered until you mentioned it.
Here are Kyrie's games played so far in this career:
2012 - 51
2013 - 59
2014 - 71
2015 - 75
2016 - 53
2017 - 72
Looks like it's about a 50/50 shot that Kyrie plays 70+ games instead of missing 20-30 games.
If Kyrie misses 20-30 games, on top of Hayward being out, the Celts are going to be in trouble trying to make the playoffs.
Luckily Al Horford is a relatively healthy guy. He missed 14 games last year, but apart from his pectoral injury that wiped out most of a season, he's been pretty durable throughout his career.
Even assuming a relatively healthy season from Kyrie, it looks like we should expect him to miss about 8-10 games. The Celts will have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to lead the team in scoring in those games, with no traditional point guard to set them up.
It's going to be tough.
Hes had serious injury issues early in his career, dating all the way back to Duke, but hes only had one notable injury in the last 4 years(although it was very serious).
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Call me a homer but I think we can still win 50 games.
Getting that first win under our belt really helps relive pressure.
Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been given the opportunity to grow under stress with bigger roles.
Irving will have to pick up the slack as well as the other Celtics.
Rozier has really blossomed well under pressure.
Hopefully we will be stronger than ever when/if Gordon makes a return in last quarter of the season.
The East is still weak. So we've got a chance. Offense needs to gel though. Kyrie needs to learn celtics system but he has chance to flourish. If IT can score 29 ppg in this system, Kyrie can as well, once he learns it.
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It'll take a bit more time than originally thought (though some people may have been a bit too optimistic in predicting how great we would be coming out of the gate). But there have been enough signs in spurts even in the 3 games played that when they figure out Brad's system (remember only 4 players on this team have played in that system) they won't let us down in terms of entertainment.
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45-50 wins. The goal now is to make the playoffs.