Olynyk for Embiid

[tankcity!]

15 5 and 5 seems like a crazy number to throw out there. I was trying to research how many rookies have put up those numbers in the history of the NBA. Anyone know the site you can plug that in to get an answer?

Wade was 16.2/4.0/4.5. And he played 3 years in college.

So, yeah, 15/5/5 might be a bit unreasonable.

Evaluating Marcus Smart after his rookie year would be a big mistake. Be patient. Just a couple of months ago, everyone on this board was complaining about how bad James Young is as well. Now the article about his newfound work ethic has come out and people have hope again.

Main point, after this off-season, if Marcus Smart doesn't improve, then there is a reason to be concerned. But so far, I'm not very concerned. Everyone else in his class wasn't putting up crazy stats either.

[tankcity!]

Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.

I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar.  He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning.   Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.

A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant.  He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain.   In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league.    A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed.   Everyone lost their minds.   The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now).    The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid.  Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him.   Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.   

There's two camps right now.  Neither side has any idea if they are right.   It's all purely speculative.  The team has merely said he hasn't healed as fast as they hoped.  Multiple sources have confirmed that Embiid hasn't re-injured anything.  Multiple sources have confirmed that nothing forced the check-up... it was just a routine one that was on the schedule.  Two camps with two very different interpretations of what "not healing as fast as we hoped" means:

#1 - Some people think "not healed as fast" means that it has healed improperly.  They have no evidence to support this... just some media spin citing "NBA Sources" who claim Embiid "could" miss the next season.  They expect that three doctors are being brought in to evaluate whether Embiid needs a second surgery.

#2 - Some people think it means that the injury (which can take a year to heal) hasn't fully healed yet despite the fact it's literally been 1 year since his surgery.  They believe this means the bone is probably fine, but the soft tissue surrounding it might not be fully filled in yet.  Basically, if the supporting tissue isn't there it could put him at a greater risk of reinjury.   They believe doctors are being brought in to decide if it's best to let him rest longer (season is 4 months away) or if there's anything he can do to speed up healing.    Evidence for such a theory:  "hasn't healed as fast" could mean exactly what they are saying... it hasn't healed as fast as they hoped.  If he was 100% right now, he'd be gearing up for Summer league.  If he's 95%, it might give them pause.   Comments from the team seem to support this theory (they want to make sure he's healthy long-term).  The team put him in a walking boot, which seems to back up what doctors typically do in this scenario... give it rest and hope it heals more.  Bill Self claimed this is exactly what the team is doing... having Embiid slow down his aggressive workouts with hopes that it will heal more under less aggressive training.


If you're in camp 1, maybe you assume that Embiid is further away from playing than when they selected him.  In that case, I guess you would believe that Embiid can be had for less than he was worth a year ago.

If you're in camp 2... Embiid is much closer to playing than he was last year.  His value logically shouldn't be less.  If there's a good chance he'll play opening night, why would he be worth less than he was last season?  I'm in camp 2.  My guess is that Philly is also in camp 2.   If you're in camp 2, it's nonsensical for you to take LESS for Embiid than you would have a year ago.    That not only rules out this silly Olynyk idea, but it also probably rules out Smart + #16 + #26.  Why?  Because they wouldn't have taken that a year ago and that was when the guys at #6 (Smart, Randle, Vonleh) had considerably more trade value than they do right now.  All three of those guys had underwhelming rookie seasons.    I really like Smart, but I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate.  He averaged 8, 3 and 3.  His trade value has dropped.  Embiid's should arguably be higher than it was last year.

He's nothing more than a defensive role player right now.  We'll see what happens to him.  His rookie season was pretty majorly disappointing, imo.   I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate.  He was an 8, 3 and 3 guy... and he was pretty garbage offensively:  37%/34%/65%

There's no way Marcus Smart's trade value is higher than the #6 pick was last year.   Last year, that draft was seen as a historic once-a-decade draft.   For context, Chad Ford polled several teams to determine how they ranked prospects in tiers.   Tier 1 - can't-miss superstar talent.  Tier 2 - guys who project into all-stars.   They had three guys in tier 1 (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker) and another 6 in tier 2.  This year they have one guy in Tier 1 (Towns) and four guys in tier 2.      Marcus Smart was one of the "tier 2" guys last year.    Everything I read suggested he was one of the three most NBA-ready guys in the draft (Parker and Randle being the other two).   From that, I assumed he would be a Tyreke Evans type.   Tyreke Evans, picked 4th in 2009, put up 20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals on 46%/26%/75% shooting as a rookie.    I figured 15, 5 and 5 from Smart (who put up similar college stats to Evans) was reasonable.    It's hard to look at the season Smart had and not consider it underwhelming.

This is a little ridiculous don't you think? According to you, 90% of the 2014 draft class was a disappointment. Exum, Gordon haven't been great either.....They were drafted ahead of Smart. It's very dumb to judge a player based on their first year. I'm very disappointed someone with your intellectual capability would be so quick to judge.

[PhoSita]

Would it be worth trading my 3 year old LG phone for an iPhone 6? 

Or is it not worth the hassle to deal with the bugs on the newest Apple product? 

Would my local Verizon store make that deal? 

You have to admit, even though the colors on the screen are broken and the QWERTY keyboard is a pain in the butt to use, my old LG phone is very durable and has never dropped any of my calls.

[jaketwice]

Would it be worth trading my 3 year old LG phone for an iPhone 6? 

Or is it not worth the hassle to deal with the bugs on the newest Apple product? 

Would my local Verizon store make that deal? 

You have to admit, even though the colors on the screen are broken and the QWERTY keyboard is a pain in the butt to use, my old LG phone is very durable and has never dropped any of my calls.

Marcus Smart!

[KG Living Legend]

lol
 

Birdman, I think it's time to get off the Joel train while you can, he's great when he plays the problem is he doesn't play.
I genuinely believe that if you offered the 76ers a a package of Marcus Smart, #16 and #28 for Embiid, they'd say no.  I've already gone into my reasons for why in the other Embiid threads.

[Ilikesports17]

15 5 and 5 seems like a crazy number to throw out there. I was trying to research how many rookies have put up those numbers in the history of the NBA. Anyone know the site you can plug that in to get an answer?

IDK but Westbrook was 15/5/5, Wall was 16/8/5, Rose was 17/6/4 Curry was 18/6/5 Irving was 19/5/4.

Its not unheard of but then again you are talking about 3 #1 picks, the MVP, and the league leader in scoring this year so its not like Marcus needs to be as good as any of these guys.

Also worth mentioning hes better on D then all of these guys with the exception of John Wall.

[MBunge]

Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.

I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar.  He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning.   Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.

A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant.  He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain.   In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league.    A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed.   Everyone lost their minds.   The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now).    The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid.  Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him.   Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.   

There's two camps right now.  Neither side has any idea if they are right.   It's all purely speculative. 

It's not all speculation.  Bringing in 3 doctors to examine a player because you're not sure summer league is "worth the risk" over a year after the player was hurt is a bad sign.  If Embiid can't handle the stress of summer league a year after his injury, what is he going to do when the 82 game regular season starts up in about 4 and 1/2 months?

Now, it's entirely possible that everything could still work out just fine for Philly and Embiid.  But being concerned about these latest developments isn't pessimistic.  It's realistic.  And your reaction is leaning a lot closer to denial than optimism.

Mike

[littleteapot]

The 76ers didn't draft Embiid to dump him off. They're going to wait at least a little more to see if he can be an NBA player.

Also, saying the Smart is no longer worth a 5th pick in last years draft is absurd. if we redrafted last years draft, who would jump Smart? I think he would pretty clearly jump Exum, and the guys picked right after him were either injured or not as good.

[D.o.s.]

15 5 and 5 seems like a crazy number to throw out there. I was trying to research how many rookies have put up those numbers in the history of the NBA. Anyone know the site you can plug that in to get an answer?

IDK but Westbrook was 15/5/5, Wall was 16/8/5, Rose was 17/6/4 Curry was 18/6/5 Irving was 19/5/4.

Its not unheard of but then again you are talking about 3 #1 picks, the MVP, and the league leader in scoring this year so its not like Marcus needs to be as good as any of these guys.

Also worth mentioning hes better on D then all of these guys with the exception of John Wall.

Smart is better on defense for two reasons: one because he's more suited to playing it physically than any of the players you listed, save Rose, and two because he's nowhere near the central point of the Celtics offense, and probably won't ever be, so he has a lot more effort to expend on that end.

[konkmv]

I think olynyc would be ideal next to noel....

[konkmv]

But giving up smart is dum

[Ilikesports17]

15 5 and 5 seems like a crazy number to throw out there. I was trying to research how many rookies have put up those numbers in the history of the NBA. Anyone know the site you can plug that in to get an answer?

IDK but Westbrook was 15/5/5, Wall was 16/8/5, Rose was 17/6/4 Curry was 18/6/5 Irving was 19/5/4.

Its not unheard of but then again you are talking about 3 #1 picks, the MVP, and the league leader in scoring this year so its not like Marcus needs to be as good as any of these guys.

Also worth mentioning hes better on D then all of these guys with the exception of John Wall.

Smart is better on defense for two reasons: one because he's more suited to playing it physically than any of the players you listed, save Rose, and two because he's nowhere near the central point of the Celtics offense, and probably won't ever be, so he has a lot more effort to expend on that end.

true. My point was simply that Smart doesnt need to give you half Irvings numbers to give you Irvings impact.

If Marcus  gives you 15/6/5 I think its entirely possible he could be more valuable than a guy like Irving giving you 22/8/5 soley because of elite defense and intangibles.

[D.o.s.]

I think you're underrating Irving pretty heavily there.

[LarBrd33]

Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.

I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar.  He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning.   Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.

A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant.  He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain.   In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league.    A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed.   Everyone lost their minds.   The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now).    The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid.  Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him.   Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.   

There's two camps right now.  Neither side has any idea if they are right.   It's all purely speculative. 

It's not all speculation. Bringing in 3 doctors to examine a player because you're not sure summer league is "worth the risk" over a year after the player was hurt is a bad sign.  If Embiid can't handle the stress of summer league a year after his injury, what is he going to do when the 82 game regular season starts up in about 4 and 1/2 months?

Now, it's entirely possible that everything could still work out just fine for Philly and Embiid.  But being concerned about these latest developments isn't pessimistic.  It's realistic.  And your reaction is leaning a lot closer to denial than optimism.

Mike

Why is bringing in 3 doctors it a bad sign?   If you had your entire hopes built around an asset that can add 200-300 million in value to your franchise, how cautious would you be?   The CEO flat out said something to the extent of, "We're bringing in 3 doctors... because we can.  Why not?  We get to see the best doctors in the world".   Are you going to take your team doctor's at face value and throw Embiid into the fire... or are you going to put yourself in the best possible position to make the most educated decision you can?

As for "if Embiid can't handle the stress of summer league"... Yeah... maybe he can.   Maybe that's the point.   He's obviously been able to handle the stress of full-tilt aggressive training and over the past month or so.  Perhaps he can handle the stress of summer league without risking re-injury.   Perhaps he's better off sitting out until the start of the season 4 months from now... give his body even more time to build up tissue.    I imagine that's the kind of questions the doctors are being brought in to answer. 

[LarBrd33]

Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.

I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar.  He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning.   Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.

A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant.  He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain.   In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league.    A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed.   Everyone lost their minds.   The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now).    The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid.  Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him.   Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.   

There's two camps right now.  Neither side has any idea if they are right.   It's all purely speculative.  The team has merely said he hasn't healed as fast as they hoped.  Multiple sources have confirmed that Embiid hasn't re-injured anything.  Multiple sources have confirmed that nothing forced the check-up... it was just a routine one that was on the schedule.  Two camps with two very different interpretations of what "not healing as fast as we hoped" means:

#1 - Some people think "not healed as fast" means that it has healed improperly.  They have no evidence to support this... just some media spin citing "NBA Sources" who claim Embiid "could" miss the next season.  They expect that three doctors are being brought in to evaluate whether Embiid needs a second surgery.

#2 - Some people think it means that the injury (which can take a year to heal) hasn't fully healed yet despite the fact it's literally been 1 year since his surgery.  They believe this means the bone is probably fine, but the soft tissue surrounding it might not be fully filled in yet.  Basically, if the supporting tissue isn't there it could put him at a greater risk of reinjury.   They believe doctors are being brought in to decide if it's best to let him rest longer (season is 4 months away) or if there's anything he can do to speed up healing.    Evidence for such a theory:  "hasn't healed as fast" could mean exactly what they are saying... it hasn't healed as fast as they hoped.  If he was 100% right now, he'd be gearing up for Summer league.  If he's 95%, it might give them pause.   Comments from the team seem to support this theory (they want to make sure he's healthy long-term).  The team put him in a walking boot, which seems to back up what doctors typically do in this scenario... give it rest and hope it heals more.  Bill Self claimed this is exactly what the team is doing... having Embiid slow down his aggressive workouts with hopes that it will heal more under less aggressive training.


If you're in camp 1, maybe you assume that Embiid is further away from playing than when they selected him.  In that case, I guess you would believe that Embiid can be had for less than he was worth a year ago.

If you're in camp 2... Embiid is much closer to playing than he was last year.  His value logically shouldn't be less.  If there's a good chance he'll play opening night, why would he be worth less than he was last season?  I'm in camp 2.  My guess is that Philly is also in camp 2.   If you're in camp 2, it's nonsensical for you to take LESS for Embiid than you would have a year ago.    That not only rules out this silly Olynyk idea, but it also probably rules out Smart + #16 + #26.  Why?  Because they wouldn't have taken that a year ago and that was when the guys at #6 (Smart, Randle, Vonleh) had considerably more trade value than they do right now.  All three of those guys had underwhelming rookie seasons.    I really like Smart, but I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate.  He averaged 8, 3 and 3.  His trade value has dropped.  Embiid's should arguably be higher than it was last year.

He's nothing more than a defensive role player right now.  We'll see what happens to him.  His rookie season was pretty majorly disappointing, imo.   I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate.  He was an 8, 3 and 3 guy... and he was pretty garbage offensively:  37%/34%/65%

There's no way Marcus Smart's trade value is higher than the #6 pick was last year.   Last year, that draft was seen as a historic once-a-decade draft.   For context, Chad Ford polled several teams to determine how they ranked prospects in tiers.   Tier 1 - can't-miss superstar talent.  Tier 2 - guys who project into all-stars.   They had three guys in tier 1 (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker) and another 6 in tier 2.  This year they have one guy in Tier 1 (Towns) and four guys in tier 2.      Marcus Smart was one of the "tier 2" guys last year.    Everything I read suggested he was one of the three most NBA-ready guys in the draft (Parker and Randle being the other two).   From that, I assumed he would be a Tyreke Evans type.   Tyreke Evans, picked 4th in 2009, put up 20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals on 46%/26%/75% shooting as a rookie.    I figured 15, 5 and 5 from Smart (who put up similar college stats to Evans) was reasonable.    It's hard to look at the season Smart had and not consider it underwhelming.

This is a little ridiculous don't you think? According to you, 90% of the 2014 draft class was a disappointment. Exum, Gordon haven't been great either.....They were drafted ahead of Smart. It's very dumb to judge a player based on their first year. I'm very disappointed someone with your intellectual capability would be so quick to judge.

Yes, tankcity... the 2014 draft has, thus far, unequivocally been a MASSIVE disappointment.  No question.

If you were to tell me before the draft that our huge #6 pick was going to net us a guy who would put up rookie averages of 7.8 points, 3.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals on .367/.335/.646 shooting... after everyone spent the entire summer talking about how "NBA-ready" the kid was...   I'd be like, "TRAAAAAADE IT!!! TRAAAAAAADE IT!!!!".   I like Smart.  He was far more valuable as a #6 pick.   He's been a big disappointment.  I figured with the way they talked about him, we'd be getting a Tyreke Evans type... quasi star who can put up 15/5/5. 

As for Embiid... if he was worth more than Smart a year ago, I don't see why he'd be worth less now.

I do think Smart has a nice future.  I think Embiid can be a transcendent player.  Forget this Olynyk nonsense.  Kelly Olynyk probably doesn't even get you a lotto pick.  If we're talking Embiid, I'd give up Smart, #16 and #28 for him right now (Philly probably says no).. unless the 3 docs tell me his career is over.  But 1 year ago he had surgery which admittedly takes about a year to heal fully... fell to #3... and now a year later they are saying .. well... they aren't really saying anything, actually.  All they have said is that it's not as healed as they hoped.  So he's not 100%.  What that means, we will not know for a couple weeks.