I think this is more of a positive sign than a negative one but he will be an UFA as of June 30 so in that, he can sign anywhere. He may well test the market or look for a team more likely to contend. I would. He can also wait to see what Kyrie and others do.
I don't see it as the end of the world if he leaves. If we sign him at say $23, is that really the best possible way to spend that money? Even if a good deal now, how about in 3 years?
We lost out on Anthony Davis. That is the big blow. I like Horford but not overly concerned either way now that it looks like we are going to lose Kyrie. If Kyrie does re-sign, I would see it as more important to keep Al. We would have no money to replace Al if we sign Kyrie so losing him would mean losing the salary slot.
Yeah, it pretty much is the best way to spend that money. Most importantly, whether Al gets $18 million a year or $23 million a year, the Celtics probably have an identical roster for the next three years, because those extra dollars won’t matter for cap or tax purposes, even in year 3.
Under about $18 million, there are options where the C’s now have cap room more than the MLE, up to $27 million according to Bobby marks. It’s not very hard to get up to a max player from $27 million. But what max player is going to come here? Do you risk losing Horford, because he decides to look elsewhere while you wait, and missing out on that player when he chooses a different team? With Jaylen’s rookie deal ending, there won’t be max space to carry over to next season if you miss out this year.
So in that case, where you miss out on the max player, you get 2-3 players who make a combined total of $27 million. This compares to a world in which you keep Al, resign one of Rozier and Morris, and use the MLE and BAE, also for near $27 million.
Unless you’re positive there’s a younger guy waiting for you to offer him a max deal, then you absolutely pay the money to keep Al, because there is no better way to spend it.
Honestly it really all depends on the direction you want to go in. Full rebuild around the young guys. See if you can use that cap space to sign Malcolm Brodgen, draft a few young players and use the one exception you have to sign a vet. If you keep Al you can resign Terry, use both exceptions and field a competitive but probably non championship team.
I love Al. He's a key piece on a championship team. I think the team will be a lottery level team without him and you can assure that Hayward opts out next year and moves on to a team that is contending as well. Not signing Al will completely gut the team and they may be the 9-10th best team in the East unless one of the Jay's turn into a superstar.
I think letting Al go and moving on from Hayward sets this team back and make the C's look like a team no superstar wants to go to. IMO I'd resign Al, possibly Keep Terry and use the two exceptions to build a competitive team. If one of the Jay's makes a huge leap or both do then you are definitely in contention for the ECF. That is the route I hope for my C's.