Green and Lee both called bad signings

[ctrey]

From John Hollinger, who I am sure everyone on this site will lambast as out of touch and too enamored with his own PER system, however I think he hits the nail right on the head here:

Jeff Green, Celtics
The reaction to his four-year, $34 million deal this summer was one of nearly universal bafflement, and that hasn't gone away in the wake of his modest start.

Green can score at a decent clip and is doing so again, averaging 16.5 points per 40 minutes, but his PER would be his lowest since his rookie year. Even playing with Rajon Rondo as a set-up man, he hasn't been particularly efficient because he's a weak long-range shooter and doesn't generate a ton of foul shots. Meanwhile, he doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table. In theory, he was supposed to provide a big wing who could help guard the LeBrons of the world, but it hasn't worked out that way yet in practice.


Courtney Lee, Celtics
Lee got a full midlevel exception deal for four years, $22 million, and has become an interesting player in league circles because he has fallen out of favor and is trade-eligible Dec. 15. Lee lost his starting gig with lightning speed, posting an anemic 7.45 PER while hardly ever shooting -- he's averaging only 9.5 points per 40 minutes and has made only six 3-pointers, his alleged specialty, the entire season.

Perhaps worse, he hasn't made an impact on games at the defensive end the way Boston hoped. Lee is good on the ball but doesn't like contact at either end and is often waylaid by screens. As a result, he has fallen behind Jason Terry and Leandro Barbosa in Boston's guard hierarchy, and once Avery Bradley returns he may be out of the rotation entirely.

Both these guys have been disappointing to put it mildly nearly twenty games into the season. To be frank, Green has been less than mediocre for his entire tenure here.

Danny drafts well by and large (We sure could use Marshon Brooks right now while JaJuan Johnson pumps gas in the D-league)but tends to be awful with trades and free agent signings. Yes, getting Allen and KG were greats moves but both O'Neals, Green for Perk (To be fair that deal has stunk for everybody involved) and a number of minor deals when better choices were there to be had has left many scratching their heads.

[scaryjerry]

Hard to really disagree w/ his assessment at this time...but I don't really think lee was a bad signing...playing bad yes, overrated signing by cs fans at the time yes,expendable if ab comes back playing well yes....but don't have a problem with it, pretty smart signing that hasn't really worked...yet

[jdz101]

In what way has Lee fallen behind Barbosa??

Time to get some facts straight hollinger.

[scaryjerry]

In what way has Lee fallen behind Barbosa??

Time to get some facts straight hollinger.

I noticed that too...looked like it was possible for a handful of games so its not too farfetched though...just not facts

[ianboyextreme]

I give exactly zero *%$#s what John Hollinger thinks about our team. I care more about what a new born child thinks about the Celtics. Also, Lee has played probably better defense than anyone expected so thats another strike against this guy. I have faith in our guys and its started to be rewarded.

[alley oop]

Do these writers, whose articles have to be purchased, watch games, or for the most part draw conclusions from stats?

[PhoSita]

I get really sick of how ESPN drives everything to be a storyline way before its time.

All of these early season power rankings and proclamations about which players are busts and which are valuable signings or breakout candidates or whatever -- it's all empty entertainment.  It's way too early to know who is really going to be playing good basketball when it really matters, in late February and all the way into June.

That said, the funny thing about all of the gloom and doom about Jeff Green is that if you look at the stats, on a per-minute basis he's not far off from what he's done his whole career so far.  The main criticisms to level at Green, I think, are that a) he's wildly inconsistent and b) his defense needs to improve by about a mile for him to be a valuable player. 

At this point, I think it's safe to say that Green is never going to give you any better than 15 pts 5 reb and 1 ast on .450/.333/.750 shooting per 36 minutes.  That's just the player that he is, for better or for worse.  That doesn't seem to really change regardless of whether he spends the majority of his time at the 3 or at the 4. 

All we can hope is that he settles into his role enough to gain some more confidence and consistency (so that he can be relied upon), and that his defense improves.  He has all of the tools to be a superb defender, and despite his lack of improvement in terms of box-score production, there's still reason to think he could improve substantially on that end.


As for Lee, I really think he's just in a bad shooting slump, and also needs to figure out what his role is here.  He's actually been quite good defensively by many advanced metrics (e.g. synergy).  He's shooting a good percentage from the floor despite laying bricks from outside.  He'll get better.

[crimson_stallion]

Also, Lee has played probably better defense than anyone expected so thats another strike against this guy. I have faith in our guys and its started to be rewarded.

I don't agree with this sentiment at all...in fact quite the opposite.

Most people here expected Lee to be a very good defensive player, but weren't sure what he'd bring on the offensive end of the floor. 

In reality he's been an inconsistent (below average at worst, good at best) defender and mediocre offensively.

I don't necessarilly believe that we've seen the best of him yet, but I don't disagree with the Hollingers's analysis so far on either Green or Lee. 

In a nutshell this is what I have seen so far...


Green
Has shown the ABILITY to score in just about every way - outside, off the dribble, at the foul line, in the paint. 

In reality has been extremely hot and cold. When he has a good game everything falls, but when he has a bad game everything is a total brick. 

Unfortuantely he has so far been cold about 3x more often then he is hot, and so most of the time it's brick city.

Just as inconsistent on defense.  Against OKC his defense on Durant was at an elite level, and Durant struggled immensely to score against Green.  In every other game he seems like he's 2 steps behind on defense.

Same deal with rebounds as well.  Some games he aggressively attacks the boards, while other games he shows no interest at all.

I have noticed when Green plays with energy and with a scorers mentality he almost always plays well, but when he plays lax or lethargic he looks like he's utterly incapable and shy's away from anything even remotely resembling a defender.

Lee
The thing about Lee that has impressed me the most has been his energy / athleticism.  He's extremely agile and he's lightning fast in the open floor.

Unlike Green, Lee seems to play with energy every game, but he looks as slow mentally as he is quick physically. 

His on-ball defense can at times be extremely good, but his team defense at times has been horrendous.  He's sometimes aggressive driving to the basket, but has a tendancy to turn the ball over when he does so. 

Then of coure there is the shooting.  He's actually been very consistent from midrange (shooting up over 50% last I checked) but his three point shot has obviously been way off.  That is something that I think will come in time.

I think Lee's biggest overrated aspect right now is his defense.  People see the on-ball pressure and label him as an excellent defender, but his overall defensive impact has been average at best in a lot of cases.  Quite inconsistent in that regard as well and plays D better in some games then he has in others.


Anyways not trying to suggest these descriptions are hard and fast realities, this is just what I have seen so far.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I do think Courtney is a bad signing at all. Maybe we put too much expectation on him? He's playing solid defense and putting in effort.

Jeff Green though, I have no defense. He's getting slowly though, his past two games were solid.

[2short]

well the last 2 games those were 2 of the best players on the roster
maybe small sample but likewise hollinger is taking a small sample

[mctyson]

I just think expectations are too high.  You don't get All-Stars for mid-level exceptions.  Courtney Lee has played on 4 teams in 5 years in the league.  If he was starter-quality for a contending team, he wouldn't be on our roster.

Jeff Green has been hammered, and for some good reasons, but I still maintain that his production will increase with the more minutes he plays.  We signed him to be our starting SF next year, the year after that, and possibly the year after that.  Not to be an All-Star who is our 3rd sub of the game. 

[bfrombleacher]

I just think expectations are too high.  You don't get All-Stars for mid-level exceptions.  Courtney Lee has played on 4 teams in 5 years in the league.  If he was starter-quality for a contending team, he wouldn't be on our roster.

Orlando was one. Too bad their GM sucks.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Once again, Hollinger inaccurate and shortsighted.

[Roy H.]

I didn't like the Green deal, and thought the Lee signing was a good one.  Both have been disappointments to some extent, but Green is recovering from major surgery and a year of no NBA basketball, and Lee is learning a new system.  It's too early to say on either of them.  (I do wonder about Hollinger's assessment of their defense, though.  I think both guys have been at least decent on that end.)

As for Marshon Brooks, he's averaging 11 minutes per game in NJ, so he's nothing to lament too much.

[pearljammer10]

In what way has Lee fallen behind Barbosa??

Time to get some facts straight hollinger.

I noticed that too...looked like it was possible for a handful of games so its not too farfetched though...just not facts

Beat me to it as well. Since when has Barbosa been playing over Lee? Hollinger just making up crap to try and make a point. Can we ban Hollinger from celticsblog? Anybody?