Let's say Ainge makes a deal of Brown, Smart and picks for Kawhi.
Then we have a lineup of
Kyrie
Hayward
Tatum
Kawhi
Horford
Ainge will then have to decide who to sign either Kyrie or Kawhi. Since Rozier is on board, Kyrie may be the odd man out. I think Ainge could then still work a S&T involving Horford for the one that doesn't want to resign. Ainge would be betting both don't want to walk and if they both want to sign, then Horford and Rozier are gone.
Getting both will make it harder for both to turn down big money. Either way, Ainge wouldn't let them walk for nothing.
if we add kawhi the idea would be to sign both long term. There’s no either/or.
Um so you think the Celtics can absorb 4 guys making $25+M? I don't think so
It's not a bad thing, one can always be dealt in a S&T. Stevens believes Horford drives everything so until his deal can be part of another deal no one is going to take him off our hands by himself.
Ainge does not trade for Kawhi unless he’s got ownership’s commitment to pay all four. He’s not trading Kyrie for Kawhi (I don’t see the Spurs doing it with Kyrie’s injury and free agency status). If you believe Ainge is actually making a push for Kawhi, then you need to also believe that he’s got the ownership go-ahead for big spending the next several years.
If a deal happens, I think it’s Brown, Rozier, Morris, Yabusele, and hopefully Nader going out. I think they re-sign Smart. Having committed to being a legit title contender, and with Kyrie and Kawhi hitting free agency, you don’t skimp and let him walk barring an out-of-this world offer. Baynes will be trickier since you’re limited to the taxpayer MLE or his non-Bird rights, so I’m not sure he comes on board.
The roster looks something like this:
Kyrie
Hayward
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford
Smart
Ojeleye
Theis
Maybe Baynes
Bird
#27
Vet minimums types
That’s a tax team this year, but an affordable one ($5-10 million over the tax). The following year it balloons to close to $30 million over, which yes, is incredibly expensive. The hope would be that Al opts out next summer and resigns to something around $20 million a year, which would bring the payroll closer to $20 million over the tax — and a $40 million lower tax bill.
Long-term you’re probably choosing between Tatum and Hayward, as their contracts end at the same time. If Tatum continues to ascend over the next 2-3 seasons, it’s an easy choice. In the trade I propose above, I don’t think a draft pick needs inclusion to be the best offer — so there are still plenty of picks to develop, both for roster depth and to hope 1-2 pan out into long-term keepers (with a particular eye on the Sacramento pick).
And if we keep Jaylen and don’t do a trade, the roster is going to get similarly expensive over the coming years, although the tax can be postponed for a season and blowing way beyond the tax can be postponed by one year also. But if you think Kawhi makes you the title favorite next year, and that you can keep him, because you feel he’ll resign and ownership says they’ll pay, then you make the deal.