Brutal Reality Check: This Team Won't Win Championship this Season

[footey]

This team's current record is 43-28, with 11 games to play.  Chances are pretty strong we will not even win 50 games this regular season.  We'd have to win at least 7/11 of remaining schedule; color me skeptical that we will.

Historic perspective: In the last 30 years, going back to the 78/79 Supersonics' sole NBA championship (TP for those of you who remember DJ and Gus Williams winning that series), only one team, the 94/95 Houston Rockets (47-35), won an NBA Championship after finishing with less than 50 regular season wins (throwing out strike shortened seasons, obviously). 

That's 1 out of the last 29 NBA Champions.

And to paraphrase Rick Pitino, I don't see Hakeem Olajuwon walking through that door any time soon.

This team is their record, and as much as we think they were supposed to be much better (am frankly embarrassed of my preseason prediction that we would win about 65), our record is who we are. 

More perspective: In those last 29 seasons, only a small handful of NBA champions --05/06 Heat (52 wins), 03/04 Pistons (54 wins) and 78/79 Sonics (52 wins) posted less than 55 regular season wins. Bottom line: Nearly every season, the team that wins the NBA Championship very likely has at least high 50's regular season wins, and more often has at least 60 wins.

And please do not mention our beloved 09/10 Celtics who were just moments away at winning championship despite going 50-32 regular season. They did not win, and, as we all know, Doc sat guys a lot to rest for the playoffs, and frankly were not trying to win that many regular season games. Can the same be said about this current team?

That is why I remain very bullish on the Bucks winning it all this year. 

And very skeptical we will get past the 2nd round.

[KG Living Legend]

 You just put your Footney in your mouth I joke, but seriously.

 Newsflash the Warriors are big-time favorites to win again. This time maybe the last we shall see.
 The East transformed overnight. 4 Legit teams plus the Pacers.

 To gain some perspective. I asked an order Freind big basketball fan who not only is not a Celtics fan but dislikes them.

 I said who's gonna win the East The Bucks? No he said. Playoffs is a different animal. Than who's gonna win it? Boston he said. What about Toronto? Kyle Lowry always chokes. You ain't lying about that.

[PhoSita]

I'll believe the Warriors aren't winning the title this year when they're down more than 3 points with <10 seconds remaining in the elimination game.


The thing for me this year was not winning it all but getting to see if the roster formula that was in place at the start of the year looked like a valid recipe for contention for the near future.

What has been truly disappointing about this season, beyond the up and down play and the lower-than-anticipated win total, is the basic fact that this group does not appear to add up to a contending formula.


In short, heading into this season it felt a bit like "Rebuild Finished!" when you looked at the roster and all the talent there, with plenty of room to grow as the older teams in the league went into decline and fell out of contention.


Instead, we're looking at a core group that doesn't seem to fit on or off the court and we've got an eastern conference featuring at least 3 other teams that have a better current recipe for success and whose best players are considerably more talented than anybody the Celtics have.

[nickagneta]

If you want my eternal hope you are going to have to pry it from my cold dead hands. Celtics win in 6 in the Finals. Go Celtics!!!😎

[SHAQATTACK]

oh....my


what will I do

No championship .....ugh

say it an't so. 

[Walker Wiggle]

oh....my


what will I do

No championship .....ugh

say it an't so. 

I echo this. My expectation going into this season wasn't that they'd win the title. Rather I was hoping they could win the East and this a right to get beaten by GSW.

Like it or not, Ainge is focused on the long term. Not saying the organization was happy wasting a year, but I'm sure they realized the odds were stacked against them in 18-19.

Meanwhile, those Sixers that everyone thought was destined for a decade of greatness might lose two of their four superstars in the offseason, after using up pretty much their entire stock of draft capital to obtain them. After the Finals are done, you'll understand why Ainge elected to hold onto his war chest.

[Jiri Welsch]

CITY SWEEP!! Only the C’s and B’s are left!!

Any other year you’d be right, but this year is the year of the Boston Slam.

 

[blink]

We have just been so all over the map this year.  I wouldn't be shocked by a 1st round exit and I wouldn't be surprised if we made it to the finals.  Playoffs are so different from the regular season.  Good coaching helps in the playoffs to make adjustments over a series.  Smart players can help with those adjustments as well.  I think we have a good coach and for the most part smart players.

I say hope for the best until we are eliminated.

[celticsclay]

This team's current record is 43-28, with 11 games to play.  Chances are pretty strong we will not even win 50 games this regular season.  We'd have to win at least 7/11 of remaining schedule; color me skeptical that we will.

Historic perspective: In the last 30 years, going back to the 78/79 Supersonics' sole NBA championship (TP for those of you who remember DJ and Gus Williams winning that series), only one team, the 94/95 Houston Rockets (47-35), won an NBA Championship after finishing with less than 50 regular season wins (throwing out strike shortened seasons, obviously). 

That's 1 out of the last 29 NBA Champions.

And to paraphrase Rick Pitino, I don't see Hakeem Olajuwon walking through that door any time soon.

This team is their record, and as much as we think they were supposed to be much better (am frankly embarrassed of my preseason prediction that we would win about 65), our record is who we are. 

More perspective: In those last 29 seasons, only a small handful of NBA champions --05/06 Heat (52 wins), 03/04 Pistons (54 wins) and 78/79 Sonics (52 wins) posted less than 55 regular season wins. Bottom line: Nearly every season, the team that wins the NBA Championship very likely has at least high 50's regular season wins, and more often has at least 60 wins.

And please do not mention our beloved 09/10 Celtics who were just moments away at winning championship despite going 50-32 regular season. They did not win, and, as we all know, Doc sat guys a lot to rest for the playoffs, and frankly were not trying to win that many regular season games. Can the same be said about this current team?

That is why I remain very bullish on the Bucks winning it all this year. 

And very skeptical we will get past the 2nd round.

Where are you getting that this is so unlikely? We will most likely be a pickem or favorite for 9 of the 11 games remaining. The only teams we will clearly be an underdog for are at indiana and tonight (tonight we are 3 point underdogs for perspective). Now I don't think we will necessarily win 9, in fact i don't think we will. However, 7 is certainly extremely possible. Feels like you started off whole post with false premise... #rewrite

[Phantom255x]

Huh? I mean, isn't this the general consensus on this blog anyways? 

I think most of us acknowledge this team probably isn't winning it all this season, and probably aren't making the Finals to begin with (odds seem stacked against us). It would be a "brutal reality check" if we were at like 55 wins right now, #1 seed with 10 games to go and this was posted, but the truth is most expectations and odds have us reaching the ECF as our CEILING.

I do respectfully disagree about the Bucks though. They lost Brogdon and it's possible they've lost Mirotic for a while too. Toronto to me is still the most dangerous team in the East and will be favored to reach the Finals. I said that early in the year and still stand by that.

[Celtics4ever]

I think we can beat anyone and lose to anyone in the playoffs.  It is going to be interesting, I hope we go on a run.

[PhoSita]

Where are you getting that this is so unlikely? We will most likely be a pickem or favorite for 9 of the 11 games remaining. The only teams we will clearly be an underdog for are at indiana and tonight (tonight we are 3 point underdogs for perspective). Now I don't think we will necessarily win 9, in fact i don't think we will. However, 7 is certainly extremely possible.

Here's the remaining slate of games -- I've listed what I think will be the outcome considered "more likely" heading into the game.

@PHI - L
@CHA - W
vsSAS - L
@CLE - W
vsIND - W
@BKN - L
vsMIA - W
@MIA - L
@IND - L
vsORL - W
@WAS - W


That would be 6 wins 5 losses, final record 49-33.

[celticsclay]

Where are you getting that this is so unlikely? We will most likely be a pickem or favorite for 9 of the 11 games remaining. The only teams we will clearly be an underdog for are at indiana and tonight (tonight we are 3 point underdogs for perspective). Now I don't think we will necessarily win 9, in fact i don't think we will. However, 7 is certainly extremely possible.

Here's the remaining slate of games -- I've listed what I think will be the outcome considered "more likely" heading into the game.

@PHI - L
@CHA - W
vsSAS - L
@CLE - W
vsIND - W
@BKN - L
vsMIA - W
@MIA - L
@IND - L
vsORL - W
@WAS - W


That would be 6 wins 5 losses, final record 49-33.

So if we win tonight we get to 50 most likely... seems like so bizarre to act like it is very unlikely to happen when it is basically a coin flip...

Edit Phosita I know you were not the one that said it.

[PhoSita]

Where are you getting that this is so unlikely? We will most likely be a pickem or favorite for 9 of the 11 games remaining. The only teams we will clearly be an underdog for are at indiana and tonight (tonight we are 3 point underdogs for perspective). Now I don't think we will necessarily win 9, in fact i don't think we will. However, 7 is certainly extremely possible.

Here's the remaining slate of games -- I've listed what I think will be the outcome considered "more likely" heading into the game.

@PHI - L
@CHA - W
vsSAS - L
@CLE - W
vsIND - W
@BKN - L
vsMIA - W
@MIA - L
@IND - L
vsORL - W
@WAS - W


That would be 6 wins 5 losses, final record 49-33.

So if we win tonight we get to 50 most likely... seems like so bizarre to act like it is very unlikely to happen when it is basically a coin flip...

Edit Phosita I know you were not the one that said it.

Yeah based on the remaining slate I think 50 wins is within their grasp.  That home game against San Antonio stands out as maybe the hardest game they have remaining apart from the game tonight.


That said, this team has demonstrated an ability to win or lose against any opponent on any night.  But I would never bet on them in a road game. (not that I ever bet on anything)

[bdm860]

I'm accepting of the fact (this year, and most years) that for the C's to win it all, they'll have to do so in a way that's rarely, if ever, been done before.

I'm okay with that, I'll still believe till the bitter end.