Woj: Jrue Extends with Celtics (4 Years, $135M)

[cman88]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

After Jaylen, this is two big deals in a row. Tatum's deal will be huge, and I even think they might bring back White on a deserved premium. Does this mean that Wyc might not be cheap for letting TPE's go unused?

Well, I'm not sure one says much about the other.  If Wyc is fully committed to spending now, it doesn't mean he was previously, or that his fiscal restraint was the best choice.

It does mean that at this moment in time, it would be hard to call Wyc "cheap".  none of us know how long this is going to keep going, but at present Wyc is spending adequately for a contender.

The Celtics are spending a lot this year, but this is really the first year they've been well into the tax. They'll spend a lot next year as well, tho not dramatically more than this year because although browns contract increases Jrue's will now decrease and offset some of that.

The real test is in 25-26, that year with Brown, Tatum, this contract and extension for White the Celtics would likely be the most expensive NBA team ever assembled with a massive Luxury tax bill due to their salary stricture AND the repeater tax.

SO before we all rush to congratulate Wyc let's see what happens long term. If they end up dumping salary a year from now it won't look quite as rosy.

My take on this is: You do this because you have a two, maybe three, year window and Holiday is a critical part of that. But the last two years of that contract could be VERY ugly and hamstring you in a big way. Its a risk.

not sure why some fans worry so much about how the team should be structured 2-3 years out....we need to win a ring NOW. It's not often you have a team this good...and we need to maximize it.

2008 celtics never won again...look at milwaukee! they don't look like they are a surefire contender again to win the championship again.

so you need to sieze whats in front of you when it is there.

idk, I just find it funny that theres threads and threads of "wyc is cheap!" and complaining about no fireworks etc. and then when Wyc goes all in. fans are up in arms.

[Moranis]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

After Jaylen, this is two big deals in a row. Tatum's deal will be huge, and I even think they might bring back White on a deserved premium. Does this mean that Wyc might not be cheap for letting TPE's go unused?

Well, I'm not sure one says much about the other.  If Wyc is fully committed to spending now, it doesn't mean he was previously, or that his fiscal restraint was the best choice.

It does mean that at this moment in time, it would be hard to call Wyc "cheap".  none of us know how long this is going to keep going, but at present Wyc is spending adequately for a contender.

The Celtics are spending a lot this year, but this is really the first year they've been well into the tax. They'll spend a lot next year as well, tho not dramatically more than this year because although browns contract increases Jrue's will now decrease and offset some of that.

The real test is in 25-26, that year with Brown, Tatum, this contract and extension for White the Celtics would likely be the most expensive NBA team ever assembled with a massive Luxury tax bill due to their salary stricture AND the repeater tax.

SO before we all rush to congratulate Wyc let's see what happens long term. If they end up dumping salary a year from now it won't look quite as rosy.

My take on this is: You do this because you have a two, maybe three, year window and Holiday is a critical part of that. But the last two years of that contract could be VERY ugly and hamstring you in a big way. Its a risk.

not sure why some fans worry so much about how the team should be structured 2-3 years out....we need to win a ring NOW. It's not often you have a team this good...and we need to maximize it.

2008 celtics never won again...look at milwaukee! they don't look like they are a surefire contender again to win the championship again.

so you need to sieze whats in front of you when it is there.

idk, I just find it funny that theres threads and threads of "wyc is cheap!" and complaining about no fireworks etc. and then when Wyc goes all in. fans are up in arms.

he was already ob the team. This does absolutely nothing to the roster this year

[JSD]

If they win, it’s all worth it financially. The windfall from a title is worth hundreds of millions, if not a billion dollars at this point. If they don’t win, Jaylen is gone this offseason. They’ll push him out for 6-7 first-rounders to a team that can just absorb him.

Boston continues to shed the bad IT mojo. Players notice.

[Birdman]

Jrue brings a lot to this team, not just stats..take him off & we don’t win over 60 games

[Neurotic Guy]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

[Vermont Green]

Not sure what to make of this deal. Saves money next season and the cap keeps going up. My biggest concern is how redundant White and Holiday are. If we end with Tatum, Brown, White, and Holiday all on big contracts, how do we pay for bigs not named Porzingis.  Trade a guard at some point?  Hope we get lucky in the draft?

Not sure if we need expensive bigs not named Porzingis. With these expensive guards and wings, I think we can win with affordable backup bigs.

We are already thin. Horford a year closer to retirement next season. Our only options will be rookies and min contracts. The Kornets and Tillmans of the world. We may be OK with that next season but this is a looming issue. The solution of course is to trade one of the guards for some big depth. 

[Celtics2021]

I wonder if the entire contract is guaranteed, or if the final year is partially guaranteed, or if like his current contract, there are a bunch of unlikely bonuses.  Often bonuses from the original contract are carried over to an extension — if so in this case, that would reduce the value by about $3 million per year.  Woj normally reports the max value of deals to make agents look good, since they feed him info.  Sometimes that’s the correct number, other times it’s not.

Overall I’m pleased.  I thought Jrue would get between $25-30 million a year, and while this is at the high end, or maybe slightly above, Brad has put together a special group that is worth keeping together.  I’m glad it looks like we’re just going to eat the second apron penalties if it gives us a real chance to win a title.

[Roy H.]

Not sure what to make of this deal. Saves money next season and the cap keeps going up. My biggest concern is how redundant White and Holiday are. If we end with Tatum, Brown, White, and Holiday all on big contracts, how do we pay for bigs not named Porzingis.  Trade a guard at some point?  Hope we get lucky in the draft?

Not sure if we need expensive bigs not named Porzingis. With these expensive guards and wings, I think we can win with affordable backup bigs.

We are already thin. Horford a year closer to retirement next season. Our only options will be rookies and min contracts. The Kornets and Tillmans of the world. We may be OK with that next season but this is a looming issue. The solution of course is to trade one of the guards for some big depth.

The only way that any second apron team is going to be able to add players is via trade or the draft.  Since we won't be able to aggregate salaries in trade, utilize trade exceptions, or take back more salary than we send out, I suppose it makes sense to have larger contracts on the books.

As for redundancy, it depends on the skill set you're talking about.  In the case of White and Jrue, that's "great defender, good passer, can play with or without the ball, good outside shooter, great teammate".  I don't think that's a bad problem to have.

[Roy H.]

I wonder if the entire contract is guaranteed, or if the final year is partially guaranteed, or if like his current contract, there are a bunch of unlikely bonuses.  Often bonuses from the original contract are carried over to an extension — if so in this case, that would reduce the value by about $3 million per year.  Woj normally reports the max value of deals to make agents look good, since they feed him info.  Sometimes that’s the correct number, other times it’s not.

Overall I’m pleased.  I thought Jrue would get between $25-30 million a year, and while this is at the high end, or maybe slightly above, Brad has put together a special group that is worth keeping together.  I’m glad it looks like we’re just going to eat the second apron penalties if it gives us a real chance to win a title.

The last year is a player option, so my guess is that it's guaranteed.

[Celtics2021]

I wonder if the entire contract is guaranteed, or if the final year is partially guaranteed, or if like his current contract, there are a bunch of unlikely bonuses.  Often bonuses from the original contract are carried over to an extension — if so in this case, that would reduce the value by about $3 million per year.  Woj normally reports the max value of deals to make agents look good, since they feed him info.  Sometimes that’s the correct number, other times it’s not.

Overall I’m pleased.  I thought Jrue would get between $25-30 million a year, and while this is at the high end, or maybe slightly above, Brad has put together a special group that is worth keeping together.  I’m glad it looks like we’re just going to eat the second apron penalties if it gives us a real chance to win a title.

The last year is a player option, so my guess is that it's guaranteed.

Thanks, didn’t see the player option.  Those are sometimes mutual options (opt in and 50% is guaranteed, for example), although if the contract value winds up being less than reported I think it would be more likely due to bonuses.

[Moranis]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

[aefgogreen]

White's certainly going to get paid next year - they can't pay him less than Jrue...It's not my money, but I'm guessing Kornet and Hauser become casualties at some point.  They've been great for us - I hope we can win it all in either this year or next.

[Roy H.]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

[Roy H.]

White's certainly going to get paid next year - they can't pay him less than Jrue...It's not my money, but I'm guessing Kornet and Hauser become casualties at some point.  They've been great for us - I hope we can win it all in either this year or next.

Hauser is certainly a possibility, since he's outplaying his contract.

As for Kornet, is anybody going to pay him more than the minimum?  If not, then we should be able to retain him.

[Celtics2021]

White's certainly going to get paid next year - they can't pay him less than Jrue...It's not my money, but I'm guessing Kornet and Hauser become casualties at some point.  They've been great for us - I hope we can win it all in either this year or next.

White is going to be offered a 4-year, $126 million extension this summer (the most we can offer him for an extension).  My guess is he accepts it.