DWC 2018 Pre-Draft Top 20 Rankings

[DefenseWinsChamps]

1. Doncic - Floor: Fournier, Ceiling: Harden
Doncic's superior feel for the game, leadership, and confidence will make him an Alpha dog right away.

2. Bagley - Floor: Thad Young, Ceiling: Chris Bosh
Has somehow become underrated. Bagley can score inside and out and has the potential to be a switch defender. Will be an all-star one day.

3. Ayton - Floor: Olowakandi, Ceiling: Aldridge
I'm a bit more pessimistic on Ayton than most. I don't see the drive or court awareness to dominate. I see a pretty low floor (rotation player) and a fringe all-star ceiling.

4. Z Smith - Floor: Lee, Ceiling: Jimmy Butler
Smith might be the best athlete in the draft and might have one of the best feels for playing off of other players. His ceiling will be determined by his ball-handling. I see Smith as the guard with the most upside in this draft.

5. Jackson Jr. - Floor: Anthony Randolph, Ceiling: Serge Ibaka
Jackson will likely never be an All-star, but his role is pretty clear at the next level. Can he bring it every night to make a consistent impact on the game? He had really low rebounding numbers multiple times at MST.

6. Bamba - Floor: Sene, Ceiling: Whiteside
Bamba's potential is tantalizing, but his feel is absolutely horrendous. Every play he makes is based on his length/athleticism. At the next level, some of that ability will be mitigated.

7. Porter Jr. - Floor: Jonathan Bender, Ceiling: Rashard Lewis
I'm not a believer, but it would be hard NOT to take him if he falls out of the top 5. The potential is real.

8. Carter - Floor: Looney, Ceiling: Dedmon
Solid role player, but I don't see him becoming an All-star. Maybe a starter on a playoff team.

9. Brown - Floor: Lavert, Ceiling: Middleton
One of my sleepers. Solid two-way player who can handle, pass, shoot, and defend. He has good length and size for the guard position.

10. Sexton - Floor: Beverly, Ceiling: Bledsoe
The athleticism and competitiveness are enough for him to be an NBA player.

11. Allen - Floor: Tyler Johnson, Ceiling: Ginobli-lite
His immaturity might be an issue in winning over teammates, but the ability is there for him to play in big games.

12. M Bridges Floor: Gee, Ceiling: A Gordon
The NBA is made for players like Bridges who can play multiple positions and has a versatile offensive game.

13. Knox Floor: NBDL, Ceiling: J Green
Size, athleticism, and ability are all there for him to be an NBA wing. He's not tough-nosed and doesn't draw fouls well, which might be his achilles heel.

14. Mk Bridges Floor: Ariza, Ceiling: Covington
Although he is considered one of the safer picks in the draft, I'm still concerned about his transition to the NBA. He will likely have a long career, but whether that's on the bench or in the game remains to be seen.

15. Duval Floor: Mudiay, Ceiling: Teague
Yeah, I think people are sleeping on him. The lane was clogged at Duke, which didn't allow him to show off his elite athleticism or slashing game. In the NBA, he might be really special.

16. SGA Floor: Joseph, Ceiling: Barton
Good athlete and a good game. I don't see him being a starting-quality shot creator, but I could see him as a solid rotation guy.

17. Williams Floor: Biyumbo, Ceiling: Capella
Will likely make whatever GM that takes him look like a genius, even though his ability and NBA role are pretty obvious. Put him in a pick-and-roll with an elite guard, and he becomes Capella.

18. DiVincenzo Floor: Satoransky, Ceiling: G Harris

19. Spellman Floor: Sullinger, Ceiling: O'Quinn
His feel for the game will make him a good teammate. IF he continues to shape his body, he may even become a starting quality player.

20. Young Floor: DeJuan Wagner, Ceiling: Trey Burke
I just don't see any way that Young, with his efficiency and chucker attitude, becomes a starting quality player.

[chilidawg]

I like that you have your own take on things.  So many people make judgements based on other people's mocks. 

The only one I'd really disagree with is Bamba, I'd have him a good bit higher, and didn't see the lack of awareness you did.

[Csfan1984]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

[saltlover]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

I agree with this.

In fairness, Mitchell did have another year at Louisville to develop his skills. And its not like Mitchell set the world on fire with his passing this year in Utah (3.7 assists per game).

However, his ball-handling is, like I said, the thing that will determine whether he can become an all-star. I see his career following a path similar to Butler as he plays off of other players and slowly develops his playmaking abilities.

[CelticsElite]

I agree with a lot of what you say. The draft isn’t as strong at the top as many want to believe . I also like duval

[RodyTur10]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

I hope he does well, such that he deserves a nickname. I would suggest: The Inspector.

(from Inspector Gadget, it's like he uses tricks to just pop up out of nowhere higher than everybody to see how he can finish the play above the rim)

[Csfan1984]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

I agree with this.

In fairness, Mitchell did have another year at Louisville to develop his skills. And its not like Mitchell set the world on fire with his passing this year in Utah (3.7 assists per game).

However, his ball-handling is, like I said, the thing that will determine whether he can become an all-star. I see his career following a path similar to Butler as he plays off of other players and slowly develops his playmaking abilities.

I was referring to his rise up draft boards after the season finished

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

I agree with this.

In fairness, Mitchell did have another year at Louisville to develop his skills. And its not like Mitchell set the world on fire with his passing this year in Utah (3.7 assists per game).

However, his ball-handling is, like I said, the thing that will determine whether he can become an all-star. I see his career following a path similar to Butler as he plays off of other players and slowly develops his playmaking abilities.

I was referring to his rise up draft boards after the season finished

Gotchya. As far as I know, I'm the only one to rank him in the top 10.

[saltlover]

Man Smith is this year's Donovan Mitchell

Smith doesn’t have nearly the ballhandling and passing skills to be this year’s Donovan Mitchell.  Smith can be a terrific complimentary player, but he can’t be the lead dog that Mitchell was.

I agree with this.

In fairness, Mitchell did have another year at Louisville to develop his skills. And its not like Mitchell set the world on fire with his passing this year in Utah (3.7 assists per game).

However, his ball-handling is, like I said, the thing that will determine whether he can become an all-star. I see his career following a path similar to Butler as he plays off of other players and slowly develops his playmaking abilities.

I was referring to his rise up draft boards after the season finished

Gotchya. As far as I know, I'm the only one to rank him in the top 10.

I’ve seen him going as high as #7 in some national mocks.  4 does seem excessive to me, but top 10 wouldn’t shock me at all.

[gouki88]

Glad I'm not the only one to see Trae Young that way

[smokeablount]

I think you're underrating Jackson Jr (has more upside than you think), Carter Jr (really, really reminiscient of 21 year old Al Horford) and Trae Young to name a few (I don't really like Trae Young, but he's still underrated here).

I also think Troy Brown is a good prospect but his floor isn't Caris LeVert (who can actually shoot), and Allen's floor isn't Tyler Johnson IMO. Not saying they don't have solid ceilings tho.

[Birdman]

Trae Young will be another Jonny Flynn..be a bust

[CELTICSofBOSTON]

My top 20:

Tier One:
1. Deandre Ayton
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. Luka Doncic

Huge drop off

Tier 2:
4. Wendell Carter
5. Mo Bamba
6. Marvin Bagley
7. Michael Porter Jr.
8. Trae Young

Tier 3:
9. Miles Bridges
10. Mikal Bridges

Tier 4:
11. Shai Gilgeous Alexander
12. Kevin Huerter
13. Kevin Knox
14. Robert Williams
15. Zhaire Smith
16. Lonnie Walker
17. Collin Sexton
18. Mitchell Robinson
19. De’Anthony Melton
20. Troy Brown

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think you're underrating Jackson Jr (has more upside than you think), Carter Jr (really, really reminiscient of 21 year old Al Horford) and Trae Young to name a few (I don't really like Trae Young, but he's still underrated here).

I also think Troy Brown is a good prospect but his floor isn't Caris LeVert (who can actually shoot), and Allen's floor isn't Tyler Johnson IMO. Not saying they don't have solid ceilings tho.

I know people like Jackson, but he laid some real eggs this season for MSU, including one zero rebound game. Maybe he's young and will develop, but I don't think he is as much of a "sure-thing".

Carter is fine, but I don't know if he does enough to become a top 10-15 center in the league. I'm still unsure he can play meaningful minutes in the playoffs. That said, I do like his game.