Hot take: lakers are done

[Moranis]

Calling it right now: LeBron is not going to stay healthy enough to surpass Kareem for all-time points leader. Heck, one bad injury and he’s not even getting past the Mailman…

Lebrin could sleepwalk to 1400 points.  There is no way he doesn't get to Malone.  Still more likely than not that he gets to Kareem as he less than 3000 points away.  Even if he immediately becomes a role player off the bench like Carmelo it is very unlikely he won't play long enough to pass Kareem.  He pretty much has to take an injury so bad that he just can't play again and that is incredibly unlikely to happen

[Big333223]

Calling it right now: LeBron is not going to stay healthy enough to surpass Kareem for all-time points leader. Heck, one bad injury and he’s not even getting past the Mailman…

Lebrin could sleepwalk to 1400 points.  There is no way he doesn't get to Malone.  Still more likely than not that he gets to Kareem as he less than 3000 points away.  Even if he immediately becomes a role player off the bench like Carmelo it is very unlikely he won't play long enough to pass Kareem.  He pretty much has to take an injury so bad that he just can't play again and that is incredibly unlikely to happen

I agree about Lebron catching Malone. This doesn't look like his last season by any stretch so I'd be surprised if he winds up lower than #2 all time.

But if I was betting on him catching Kareem, I don't know what I'd do. Given his age, it might mean playing at least 2 more seasons after this one. He could definitely do it but the odds of that possible injury just keep growing.

[Moranis]

Calling it right now: LeBron is not going to stay healthy enough to surpass Kareem for all-time points leader. Heck, one bad injury and he’s not even getting past the Mailman…

Lebrin could sleepwalk to 1400 points.  There is no way he doesn't get to Malone.  Still more likely than not that he gets to Kareem as he less than 3000 points away.  Even if he immediately becomes a role player off the bench like Carmelo it is very unlikely he won't play long enough to pass Kareem.  He pretty much has to take an injury so bad that he just can't play again and that is incredibly unlikely to happen

I agree about Lebron catching Malone. This doesn't look like his last season by any stretch so I'd be surprised if he winds up lower than #2 all time.

But if I was betting on him catching Kareem, I don't know what I'd do. Given his age, it might mean playing at least 2 more seasons after this one. He could definitely do it but the odds of that possible injury just keep growing.

3000 points is nothing though.  I mean that is 3 seasons of 50 games at 20 ppg.  Even with last night's 10 point game and only 7 other games played, James is averaging 22.8 ppg (he was 24.6 ppg before last night's ejection).  So I'd guess he will probably end up with around another 1200 points this year which would leave him 1638 points.  He can sleep walk to 800 points a year, so he basically needs to play this year and 2 more years and he should pass Kareem.