Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season

[the_gunner]

First of all I have mixed feelings about making big trades this offseason. I believe in this group, but at the same time I can't see them get the 18. ring.

At the same time I believe, that we have som building blocks in Tatum, Brown and Smart, and at the same time guys like "Timelord" and Langford could turn into great roleplayers in a few years. My main concern is to have enough capspace to keep them without being heavily taxed.

Therefore my main concern is Kembas contract - and my good I have mixed feelings about his contract. Kemba in top shape is a fantastic play - Kemba is a fantastic player, but he is starting to recline, and his contract will be bad in a year or two if not already now.

My other concern is, that we need size and big men with a modern set of skills.

When you put all that together I have come up with this trade:

https://tradenba.com/trades/Y1-QfUbES

PACERS get
Kemba
Theis
Kanter
2x2020 first


We get
Turner
Sabonis

Why Pacers

There's a risk that both Turner and Sabonis is trying to force them self out of there contracts. At the same time rumours say that Oladipo might also wanting to leave. If Sabonis and Turner leaves then Theis might be a perfect replacement on a really good contract. Kemba will be a perfect tool for them, when their rebuild is starting. At the same time they will get to 1st. which they really want in their rebuilding proces.

Why Celtics

It's all about contracts. Sabonis and Turner are some of the best big men on some of the best contracts in the league. They will give us a chance to match up with any team in the league.

What about playmaking? I will move Hayward to be our ballhandler, but at the same time play more or less positonless basketball with a starting lineup of: Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Sabonis and Turner with Smart coming of the bench as the 6. man.

After next season I will let Hayward walk or give him a small contract - so that we will have enough capspace to sign Tatum to a max. contract.

[Who]

I hate Myles Turner & Sabonis together as duo.

Trying to force two guys who do not fit together is a big part of the problems happening in Indiana.

It is also a big part of the decline in Myles Turner's game and effectiveness as he is frequently played outside of his best position and forced to play in a role that does not suit him (stand still perimeter player being guarded by a smaller highly effective perimeter defender rather than a slower big man who doesn't defend the perimeter as well as a forward can).

It is one or the other for me. Not both.

[Who]

All I am looking for is to (1) maintain the current core group (2) add a strong bench player (3) improve deep depth on the bench with more proven players and less developing players.

I'd like the strong bench player to be more in the mold of a James Posey than a scoring bench player like Lou Williams. I am happy with our team's scoring (shot creation) ability. I feel we need more glue guys who bring teams together. Guys who are more focused on team offense, defense & rebounding.

I do not know who (which free agent) best fits those ideals. I haven't looked at the FA list. But that is my line of thinking and direction I would like the team to head in.

[PhoSita]

All I am looking for is to (1) maintain the current core group (2) add a strong bench player (3) improve deep depth on the bench with more proven players and less developing players.

I'd like the strong bench player to be more in the mold of a James Posey than a scoring bench player like Lou Williams. I am happy with our team's scoring (shot creation) ability. I feel we need more glue guys who bring teams together. Guys who are more focused on team offense, defense & rebounding.

I do not know who (which free agent) best fits those ideals. I haven't looked at the FA list. But that is my line of thinking and direction I would like the team to head in.

I think the problem is that these days the James Poseys of the world (e.g. Jae Crowder? Marcus Morris?) tend to be pretty expensive.  That skillset is more in demand than ever.

I agree, though, that the Celts could really use a Matt Barnes / Trevor Ariza type off the bench.

It's really flipped in that regard, back in 08 you had to pay like $8-10 million a year to get a decent 7 foot center.  Now that's kinda how it is for quality 3 and D wings w/ size.

[Jvalin]

- Trade Kemba to the Knicks for #8 + 2021 Knicks first. No need to match salaries. The Knicks can absorb Kemba's contract via cap space. The trade would create a $34,479,100 TPE for the Celtics (Kemba's salary + $100,000).
- Offer Christian Wood the non-taxpayer MLE. If it ain't enough, use the newly created TPE + #26 to acquire Wood via a sign and trade with the Pistons.
- Draft Haliburton at #8.
- Draft Saddiq Bey at #14.
- Draft Robert Woodard II or Tyler Bey or Paul Reed at #30.
- Draft Isaiah Joe or Sam Merrill at #47. Offer him a 2-way contract.
- If Kanter opts in, trade him for cap relief + whatever future pick(s) we can get. If he opts out, let him walk.
- Cut Poirier and eat his salary.

PG: Smart - Haliburton (#8) - Wanamaker
SG: Brown - Romeo - Edwards
SF: Hayward - S. Bey (#14) - Woodard (#30)
PF: Tatum - Grant - Semi
C: Wood - Theis - Timelord

2020-2021 payroll

1. Hayward $34,187,085   
2. Brown $22,991,071
3. Smart $13,446,428
4. Wood let's say $13,000,000
5. Tatum $9,897,120
6. Haliburton $5,123,040
7. Theis $5,000,000
8. S. Bey $3,644,040
9. Romeo $3,631,200
10. Wanamaker let's say $3,000,000 via early Bird rights
11. G. Williams $2,498,760
12. Woodard $2,040,480
13. R. Williams $2,029,920
14. Semi $1,752,950
15. Edwards $1,517,981

dead salary
Poirier $2,619,207
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,858

total $127,511,220

projected Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $5,115,780 below the tax line, hence we'd reset the clock on the repeater tax.

[PhoSita]

I think a team with Christian Wood at center would have some defensive problems, to say the least.

Not to mention that shifting Smart back to starting point guard and then filling the bench with even more young players ... sounds like a major step backward.

[slamtheking]

I think a team with Christian Wood at center would have some defensive problems, to say the least.

Not to mention that shifting Smart back to starting point guard and then filling the bench with even more young players ... sounds like a major step backward.

big step backwards.

Theis would start over Wood.  Team's reliant on an even younger and unproven bench.  Lacking a PG that can be a reliable scorer when healthy.  Rebounding's an even bigger issue with Wood instead of Kanter.  Team is loaded with more rookies and still lots of second year players.

[Vermont Green]

- Trade Kemba to the Knicks for #8 + 2021 Knicks first. No need to match salaries. The Knicks can absorb Kemba's contract via cap space. The trade would create a $34,479,100 TPE for the Celtics (Kemba's salary + $100,000).

Just commenting on the trade, this would be good for a rebuilding team but I don't see it for the Celtics, a team that already has too many draft picks.  You do get the trade exception and you would have the opportunity to trades picks and things for an actual player, so if you do that, great.  It is a risk though if you don't have that second trade already in mind and already lined up.

[Jvalin]

I think a team with Christian Wood at center would have some defensive problems, to say the least.

Not to mention that shifting Smart back to starting point guard and then filling the bench with even more young players ... sounds like a major step backward.

Actually, the advanced defensive metrics suggest that he's an above average defender to say the least.

RAPM: +0.45
RAPTOR: +2.6
PIPM: +0.81

He played 54% of his minutes at PF this season and 46% at Center. Can't find the respective numbers just for the minutes he played at Center. Obviously, he cannot stop guys like Embiid or Jokic, but nobody can stop these guys anyway. Imo, there are very few starting Centers that he cannot guard.

- He's a very switchable defender.
- He's an elite pick n roll defender (allowed 0.64 PPP this season).
- He's a decent rim protector averaging 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Fwiw, Bam averaged 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes and Giannis 1.2.

I reckon he'd be a terrific fit in our system on both sides of the floor. His biggest value is gonna come from his offense.

- He ranks in the 95th percentile as a pick n roll finisher (1.5 PPP this season).
- He can put the ball on the floor.
- He provides vertical spacing.
- He shoots the 3.

Fwiw, here's a list of all the players in the league last season under 25 years old putting up 20+ points and 10+ rebounds per 36 minutes.



And here are his on/off stats when playing alongside Drummond vs when playing without Drummond (not necessarily at C, but probably closer to the basket).

Detroit was +3.2 with Wood and Drummond sharing the floor.
They were +4.1 with just Wood.
They were -5.6 with just Drummond.

[jambr380]

I'm still holding out hope for a Hayward for Collins trade. I'd then sign Gallinari to the full non-taxpayer MLE and use the Bi-Annual exception on an upgrade for Wanamaker (Gallinari has recently said that winning is more important the money in his next contract).

I realize this is unrealistic, but not many teams are like ATL and have the ability to absorb Hayward into their cap space while also sending back a player at a position of need for us. And as much as people hate talking about the luxury tax, it would completely take care of the repeater tax problem.

[the_gunner]

I hate Myles Turner & Sabonis together as duo.

Trying to force two guys who do not fit together is a big part of the problems happening in Indiana.

It is also a big part of the decline in Myles Turner's game and effectiveness as he is frequently played outside of his best position and forced to play in a role that does not suit him (stand still perimeter player being guarded by a smaller highly effective perimeter defender rather than a slower big man who doesn't defend the perimeter as well as a forward can).

It is one or the other for me. Not both.

You might have a point, but I still believe that in a setup where we play positionless and with a lot of zone defense they will be a fantastic duo that can help us overcome huge weakness under the basket.

The strength of the trade is also, that if you turn out to be right then both of them will still be seen as trade assets, så we could trade one of them any day.

[tazzmaniac]

I'm still holding out hope for a Hayward for Collins trade. I'd then sign Gallinari to the full non-taxpayer MLE and use the Bi-Annual exception on an upgrade for Wanamaker (Gallinari has recently said that winning is more important the money in his next contract).

I realize this is unrealistic, but not many teams are like ATL and have the ability to absorb Hayward into their cap space while also sending back a player at a position of need for us. And as much as people hate talking about the luxury tax, it would completely take care of the repeater tax problem.

What are you giving up besides Hayward to get Collins?    If Gallo said winning is more important than money, why would he choose Boston rather than other winning teams? 

[PhoSita]

I think a team with Christian Wood at center would have some defensive problems, to say the least.

Not to mention that shifting Smart back to starting point guard and then filling the bench with even more young players ... sounds like a major step backward.

Actually, the advanced defensive metrics suggest that he's an above average defender to say the least.

RAPM: +0.45
RAPTOR: +2.6
PIPM: +0.81

He played 54% of his minutes at PF this season and 46% at Center. Can't find the respective numbers just for the minutes he played at Center. Obviously, he cannot stop guys like Embiid or Jokic, but nobody can stop these guys anyway. Imo, there are very few starting Centers that he cannot guard.

- He's a very switchable defender.
- He's an elite pick n roll defender (allowed 0.64 PPP this season).
- He's a decent rim protector averaging 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Fwiw, Bam averaged 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes and Giannis 1.2.

I reckon he'd be a terrific fit in our system on both sides of the floor. His biggest value is gonna come from his offense.

- He ranks in the 95th percentile as a pick n roll finisher (1.5 PPP this season).
- He can put the ball on the floor.
- He provides vertical spacing.
- He shoots the 3.

Fwiw, here's a list of all the players in the league last season under 25 years old putting up 20+ points and 10+ rebounds per 36 minutes.



And here are his on/off stats when playing alongside Drummond vs when playing without Drummond (not necessarily at C, but probably closer to the basket).

Detroit was +3.2 with Wood and Drummond sharing the floor.
They were +4.1 with just Wood.
They were -5.6 with just Drummond.

I appreciate the statistical perspective.  I did notice all season long that Wood was putting up pretty good per-36 numbers and his RPM was very good.


I'll also admit I haven't watched him much as the Pistons were a dreadful and boring team.


All of that said, I think he's kind of a skinny player with the physical profile of a PF more than a C.  Also think it's likely that he was gunning for a contract.


I could be wrong, maybe he goes to a good team and looks great.  But I'm a bit skeptical of him.


Also I just think he's gonna cost more than the Celts will be able to offer, or in the case of some unexpected trade / trade exception scenario, more than they ought to offer.

[td450]

- Trade Kemba to the Knicks for #8 + 2021 Knicks first. No need to match salaries. The Knicks can absorb Kemba's contract via cap space. The trade would create a $34,479,100 TPE for the Celtics (Kemba's salary + $100,000).

Just commenting on the trade, this would be good for a rebuilding team but I don't see it for the Celtics, a team that already has too many draft picks.  You do get the trade exception and you would have the opportunity to trades picks and things for an actual player, so if you do that, great.  It is a risk though if you don't have that second trade already in mind and already lined up.

This clears the Walker salary, gets you Halliburton or Okongwu, and leaves you with a juicy draft pick. You could work out another deal to get both. It makes it easier to keep Hayward, who compliments our core and isn't a defensive liability.

Walker is a great guy and a good player, but he doesn't bring the type of value that wins a tough playoff series. Shots have to move. Tatum needs them, Brown needs them and we need a few for our bench to develop.

The Knicks picks are very high quality picks, and they allow us to align the team and the budget. Players who compliment maximizing Tatum, Brown and defense are the way to go. Kemba just doesn't support that approach.

 

[tazzmaniac]

- Trade Kemba to the Knicks for #8 + 2021 Knicks first. No need to match salaries. The Knicks can absorb Kemba's contract via cap space. The trade would create a $34,479,100 TPE for the Celtics (Kemba's salary + $100,000).

Just commenting on the trade, this would be good for a rebuilding team but I don't see it for the Celtics, a team that already has too many draft picks.  You do get the trade exception and you would have the opportunity to trades picks and things for an actual player, so if you do that, great.  It is a risk though if you don't have that second trade already in mind and already lined up.

This clears the Walker salary, gets you Halliburton or Okongwu, and leaves you with a juicy draft pick. You could work out another deal to get both. It makes it easier to keep Hayward, who compliments our core and isn't a defensive liability.

Walker is a great guy and a good player, but he doesn't bring the type of value that wins a tough playoff series. Shots have to move. Tatum needs them, Brown needs them and we need a few for our bench to develop.

The Knicks picks are very high quality picks, and they allow us to align the team and the budget. Players who compliment maximizing Tatum, Brown and defense are the way to go. Kemba just doesn't support that approach.

Signing Kemba and then flipping him for draft picks isn't going to happen.  Ainge is 61.  He's looking to win now not rebuild. 

Also why would the Knicks want Kemba?  Even if they did, they wouldn't give up #8 and an unprotected 2021 for him.