Author Topic: List of young non superstars the c's could trade Brk 16 pick for. Yay or Nay?  (Read 4291 times)

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Offline crimson_stallion

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Not sure what you consider to be young, but I'm going to go with pretty much anybody young enough to still have at least 4-5 years of prime ball left in them. 

In this case my thoughts would be:

Giannis               - Maybe (would do it for another BRK pick, but not 2016)
Jabari Parker       - No (don't like his game, feel his upside is limited)
Derrick Favors    - Yes (signs indicate that he's going to be a very good player for many years)
Hayward             - No (he's probably worth it, but I just don't like him)
Gobert                - No (too one dimensional, limited upside IMHO)
Aaron Gordon     - No (I don't think he'll ever be anything that special)
Oladipo               - No (no enough of an upgrade over AB to gamble the Nets pick on)
Julius Randle       - No (I have doubts about his personality, defense and upside)
D'Angelo Russell - No (never liked him from the get go, and my thoughts haven't changed)
Drummond          - Yes
Justice Winslow   - No (I predict he'll become another Trevor Ariza at best)
Stanley Johnson  - No (I like him, but 2016 Brooklyn pick is an overpay)
Bradley Beal        - Yes
Dante Exum        - No (haven't seen enough of him, too high risk)
Noel                    - No (I like him, but Nets pick is an overpay - maybe for another Nets pick)
Okafor                - No (don't like his game or personality)
Karl Towns         - Yes (take what you want, I'll give you all three Brooklyn picks AND Dallas pick!)
Monroe               - Yes (would be a strong piece to build around for years to come)
Harrisson Barnes - Maybe (I feel he has potential for a real breakeout, Harden style)
Embiid                 - No (I'd think about it, but risk is too high)
Lavine                  - No (but I'd think about it, but not sure he can ever be a passable defender)
Porzingis             - Yes (but Knicks would never do it)
Miles Turner        - No (but maybe for one of the other Nets picks)
CJ McCollum       - Yes
MCW                   - No
Caldwell Pope     - No (maybe for one of the other Brooklyn picks)
Dieng                  - No
Lillard                 - Yes
Fournier             - No
Kemba Walker    - Yes (would bring Isaiah off the bench if need be)
Tobias Harris     - No (maybe for one of the lesser Brooklyn picks)
Nikola Vucevic  - Yes
Reggie Jackson - No
Eric Bledsoe      - Yes
Demar Derozan - Yes
Brandon Knight - Yes
Nicholas Batum  - No (but I like his game, would do it for a lesser Brooklyn pick)
Gallinari              - No (yes for a lesser pick)
Kanter                - No (don't like his game)


That's my list!

I hold the 2016 pick in quite high regard, so my results above might seem a bit harsh, but the fact that it carries superstar potential means that I'm really not willing to part with it unless it's going to bring back a guy who can be a high level contributor (borderline All-Star, basically) for this team for at least the next 4-5 years. 

If you change the discussion to the 2017 / 2018 pick, then that changes things completely, since I believe those picks have the potential to slip back as far as #12 (or even further) depending on how lucky the Nets get in Free Agency. 
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 06:23:53 PM by crimson_stallion »

Offline rondohondo

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Not sure what you consider to be young, but I'm going to go with pretty much anybody young enough to still have at least 4-5 years of prime ball left in them. 

In this case my thoughts would be:

Giannis               - Maybe (not convinced his upside is what people believe it to be)
Jabari Parker       - No
Derrick Favors    - Yes (signs indicate that he's going to be a very good player for many years)
Hayward             - No (don't like him, personally)
Gobert                - No (too one dimensional, limited upside IMHO)
Aaron Gordon     - No (limited upside IMHO)
Oladipo               - No (no enough of an upgrade over AB to gamble the Nets pick on)
Julius Randle       - No (I have doubts about his personality, defense and upside)
D'Angelo Russell - No (never liked him from the get to, and my thoughts haven't changed)
Drummond          - Yes
Justice Winslow   - No (I predict he'll become another Trevor Ariza at best)
Stanley Johnson  - No (I like him, but 2016 Brooklyn pick is an overpay)
Bradley Beal        - Yes
Dante Exum        - No (haven't seen enough of him, too high risk)
Noel                    - No (I like him, but Nets pick is an overpay)
Okafor                - No (don't like his game)
Karl Towns         - Yes (take what you want - all three Brooklyn picks AND the Dallas pick...done)
Monroe               - Yes (could be a strong piece to build around for years to come)
Harrisson Barnes - Maybe (I feel he has potential for a real breakeout, Harden style)
Embiid                 - No (I'd think about it, but risk is too high)
Lavine                  - No (but I'd think about it, but not sure he can ever be a passable defender)
Porzingis             - Yes (but Knicks would never do it)
Miles Turner        - No (but maybe for one of the other Nets picks)
CJ McCollum       - Yes
MCW                   - No
Caldwell Pope     - No (maybe for one of the other Brooklyn picks)
Dieng                  - No
Lillard                 - Yes
Fournier             - No
Kemba Walker    - Yes (would bring Isaiah off the bench if need be)
Tobias Harris     - No (maybe for one of the lesser Brooklyn picks)
Nikola Vucevic  - Yes
Reggie Jackson - No
Eric Bledsoe      - Yes
Demar Derozan - Yes
Brandon Knight - Yes
Nicholas Batum  - No (but I like his game, would do it for a lesser Brooklyn pick)
Gallinari              - No (yes for a lesser pick)


That's my list lol

monroe?
knight?
an injured Bledsoe?

no thanks.....

Offline crimson_stallion

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monroe?
knight?
an injured Bledsoe?

no thanks.....

Monroe
Monroe gives you scoring (20 Points Per 36), rebounding (11.5 Rebounds Per 36) and passing (2.7 Assists Per 36) along with an underrated defensive impact (DRPM of +0.9  in 2013/14, +2.3 in 2014/15, +1.4 this year).  He's an efficient scorer (50% career FG) who gets to the line at an excellent rate (33% FTR) and has dramatically improved his midrange jumper this year (47% on twos outside 16 feet).  He offers legitimate size in the front court, and his ability to draw attention and command double teams in the paint would perfectly complement our current lineup.

He's not a superstar, but he's Horford-like in that he is solid at everywhere...with the main difference being that he's bigger (6'11" / 250 pounds, 7'2" wingspan), is only 25 years old, isn't injury prone.

Plus he is locked in to a very nice $16m/year contract for the next thee years - that's Tristan Thompson money for a guy who is putting up better than Kevin Love production.


Bledsoe
Bledsoe is a 26 year old guard who is averaging 20 PPG on pretty efficient numbers (45% / 37% / 80%) who also offers elite athleticism, very nice ball handling skills, solid passing skills, Avery-Bradley-like defense and the ability to get to the line at an IT like rate (35% Free Throw Rate). 

He's had some injury history, but he's still played 80% of possible games prior to this season (he played 81 games last year) which is solid enough for me to not be worried. 

Unless you get a top 2 pick in this draft, you are VERY unlikely to land a better all-round player better than Bledsoe, and even if you DO land a top 2 pick, there's still every chance you get somebody who isn't on Bledoe's level (e.g. Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell). 

Factor in that the Suns were 12-19 (0.390) when he was playing, and have gone 2-11 (0.153) since he's been out, and his impact is obvious.

At 26 years of age he also still has the potential to improve, and he's locked in to a $13M/year contract for the next 4 years - that's ridiculous value for a 20 PPG scorer who also plays defense and who is proven to add wins.


Brandon Knight
Knight is a tougher call, because he's a scoring guard who take a lot of shots and doesn't play great defense, so he's kinda in IT territory.  However he's got decent size at the guard position (6'3" / 190 pounds) which allows him to play either guard spot, and he is a legit 20 PPG scorer who can stretch the floor (career 36% 3PT).  He's also only 24 years old, with a lot of opportunity for growth.

I don't feel he could start alongside Thomas (defensive reasons) but I think he could have a massive impact for us as a starting PG alongside Bradley or Smart, or as a combo guard 6th man off the bench.  Unless you get a top 2 pick, you probably won't get a better player than him...and like Bledsoe he's locked in to a VERY nice contract ($13M/year over the next 4 years) relative to his production level.

It's a bit of a gamble with Knight and I was kinda 50/50 on it, but I'd have to seriously think about it.  But the fact is that 20 PPG scorers are VERY hard to come by.  Honestly, if any draft gives you two 20 PPG scorers then that's a pretty impressive draft class (when was the last time that happened??) so you need to be pretty lucky to pull a 20 PPG scoring talent on draft day, and that leans me towards a "yes".


The way I see it, I can justify these moves because every guy I just listed is young, is putting up borderline All-Star numbers, and is locked into a solid contract for the next 3-4 years.  They are low risk, high reward moves, and the players are productive enough that if I made this trade and then the pick went on to net a superstar, I'd be OK with that.  At least I would know that I have a really nice and proven young player locked in for the next 3-4 years, which isn't a bad consolation prize at all.

Besides, this is a subjective list and is purely my personal preference, so you nothing to say you have to agree.

:)
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 07:13:41 PM by crimson_stallion »

Offline wdleehi

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

Offline rondohondo

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

but the pick is just a potential one too....

and we only have like a 25% to land a top 2 pick, maybe less

Offline wdleehi

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

but the pick is just a potential one too....

and we only have like a 25% to land a top 2 pick, maybe less


And how many of these players were considered at that level when they were drafted? 

And non of them are at that level. 


No, outside of players like Cousins, Blake or maybe Love, I would not trade the Brooklyn pick.  Otherwise it is a list of non-start to almost star players putting up nice numbers on lower talent teams. 

Offline crimson_stallion

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

but the pick is just a potential one too....

and we only have like a 25% to land a top 2 pick, maybe less

This.

Also, even if we beat the odds and the pick does fall top 2 - we STILL have no guarantees of getting a future star. 

Jahlil Okafor was an almost unanimous top 2 talent this year and looked like a very safe pick.  While he has shown he definitely has NBA talent (he's clearly going to be a starting caliber big man) he doesn't look like anything close to a future superstar, and if he was on my roster I would trade him for Monroe/Bledsoe/Knight in a heartbeat.

Same can be said for Nerlens Noel, who was projected as the CLEAR #1 talent in his draft before injuries dropped him down the list.

Same can also be said for Jabari Parker - he has some talent and will be an NBA player, but nothing points to big star potential.

So that Brooklyn pick has high value because it has the POTENTIAL to land a Durant/Davis/Towns/Wiggins caliber talent.  But it is still far more likely to return a Parker/Noel/Okafor/Gordon/Oladipo caliber talent.

This is why I, personally, would have to draw a line and say "if somebody offers me XYZ, then I seriously consider trading the pick - but for anything less, no". 

In my case I don't expect a superstar talent back, because nobody is going to trade a young superstar for a pick that is merely a POTENTIAL young superstar - that just makes no sense.  You need to be realistic.  So I set my "XYZ" condition to be that i would NEED to get back a guy who can give me borderline All-Star production over an extended period of time (at least the next three years) and be young enough to still extend after that period. 

I think that is honestly a pretty fair trade-off.  You take back a guy with less ultimate potential than that pick has, but the trade-off is that you are eliminating your risk by taking back a proven producer.  It's all about risk/gain balance at the end of the day.     


Offline CelticSince83

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Not sure what you consider to be young, but I'm going to go with pretty much anybody young enough to still have at least 4-5 years of prime ball left in them. 

In this case my thoughts would be:

Giannis               - Maybe (would do it for another BRK pick, but not 2016)
Jabari Parker       - No (don't like his game, feel his upside is limited)
Derrick Favors    - Yes (signs indicate that he's going to be a very good player for many years)
Hayward             - No (he's probably worth it, but I just don't like him)
Gobert                - No (too one dimensional, limited upside IMHO)
Aaron Gordon     - No (I don't think he'll ever be anything that special)
Oladipo               - No (no enough of an upgrade over AB to gamble the Nets pick on)
Julius Randle       - No (I have doubts about his personality, defense and upside)
D'Angelo Russell - No (never liked him from the get go, and my thoughts haven't changed)
Drummond          - Yes
Justice Winslow   - No (I predict he'll become another Trevor Ariza at best)
Stanley Johnson  - No (I like him, but 2016 Brooklyn pick is an overpay)
Bradley Beal        - Yes
Dante Exum        - No (haven't seen enough of him, too high risk)
Noel                    - No (I like him, but Nets pick is an overpay - maybe for another Nets pick)
Okafor                - No (don't like his game or personality)
Karl Towns         - Yes (take what you want, I'll give you all three Brooklyn picks AND Dallas pick!)
Monroe               - Yes (would be a strong piece to build around for years to come)
Harrisson Barnes - Maybe (I feel he has potential for a real breakeout, Harden style)
Embiid                 - No (I'd think about it, but risk is too high)
Lavine                  - No (but I'd think about it, but not sure he can ever be a passable defender)
Porzingis             - Yes (but Knicks would never do it)
Miles Turner        - No (but maybe for one of the other Nets picks)
CJ McCollum       - Yes
MCW                   - No
Caldwell Pope     - No (maybe for one of the other Brooklyn picks)
Dieng                  - No
Lillard                 - Yes
Fournier             - No
Kemba Walker    - Yes (would bring Isaiah off the bench if need be)
Tobias Harris     - No (maybe for one of the lesser Brooklyn picks)
Nikola Vucevic  - Yes
Reggie Jackson - No
Eric Bledsoe      - Yes
Demar Derozan - Yes
Brandon Knight - Yes
Nicholas Batum  - No (but I like his game, would do it for a lesser Brooklyn pick)
Gallinari              - No (yes for a lesser pick)
Kanter                - No (don't like his game)


That's my list!

I hold the 2016 pick in quite high regard, so my results above might seem a bit harsh, but the fact that it carries superstar potential means that I'm really not willing to part with it unless it's going to bring back a guy who can be a high level contributor (borderline All-Star, basically) for this team for at least the next 4-5 years. 

If you change the discussion to the 2017 / 2018 pick, then that changes things completely, since I believe those picks have the potential to slip back as far as #12 (or even further) depending on how lucky the Nets get in Free Agency.

Very surprised you were the first one to say YES to Favors.  I would have thought he would have gotten more yes votes. 

Offline Gainesville Celtic

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Drummond and Favors are pretty sure YES for me (I prefer Favors).

Jabari, Hayward and Gianis are maybes but I'd prob rather take my chances with the pick.

Shocked that anyone would have Beal as a yes given he's only ~23 or so and might have a minutes limit for the rest of his career already.
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Offline crimson_stallion

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

but the pick is just a potential one too....

and we only have like a 25% to land a top 2 pick, maybe less


And how many of these players were considered at that level when they were drafted? 

And non of them are at that level. 


No, outside of players like Cousins, Blake or maybe Love, I would not trade the Brooklyn pick.  Otherwise it is a list of non-start to almost star players putting up nice numbers on lower talent teams.

I see Monroe as pretty much a poor man's Cousins,and IMHO he is a significantly better player than Love is right now.  Also a significantly lower risk and a lower cost.  Given the choice between Monroe or Love, Monroe would (to me) be a no brainer. 


Online Atzar

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I'd give some serious thought to Drummond. 

Nobody else on that list really interests me for that price.

Offline crimson_stallion

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Very surprised you were the first one to say YES to Favors.  I would have thought he would have gotten more yes votes.

I think it's the whole "is he a transcendent player?" argument.

I think that's a fair argument too, because in all honesty I don't think he is ever going to be a franchise player, a perennial All-Star, or somebody who is going to single handedly transform your franchise. 

He's been in the league for 5 years already and is now 24 years old (around the time most guys break out) and he's still only putting up 18 and 9 Per 36. 

But his game reminds me quite a bit of Al Horford / Greg Monroe and I think he's very similar to those guys in terms of being a borderline All-Star who will make your team much better, but won't really be good enough to dominate consistently or to carry you on a nightly basis.

But truly transcendent superstars / franchise players are very hard to get, and an Al Horford / Greg Monroe / Derrick Favors type of guy is basically the next best thing.  I think that if you have a guy like that in a complimentary role as a #2 / #3 guy, then that's a nice thing to have.

By having Thomas along with one of those guys, you are well and truly one big star away from being a very serious contender for a LONG time - and I think big stars are more likely to see that and come on board.

I think Horford makes a tougher case because he is getting into his 30's, is fairly injury prone, and is in the last year of his contract...I think stars will be hesitant to join the team based on his presence, because there is a high element of risk there. 

However if you have the #3 seed in the East and you have an "under 26" core of Monroe/Favors, Thomas, Crowder, Bradley and Smart all locked up for 3+ years on cap friendly deals...then I think that puts you in a very good position as a free agent suitor moving forward.  It allows you to offer a star the opportunity to join a proven core that is strong and young enough to contend for at least the next 3 years.

I also think that this year (with Olynyk's development as a shooter, and the addition of Amir Johnson as a rim protector) the Celtics make a much better fit for traditional "old school" bigs like Monroe and Favors...which wasn't necessarily the case last year.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 08:45:49 PM by crimson_stallion »

Offline Chief

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Bradley Beal too injured.

 Pass!

Once you are labeled 'the best' you want to stay up there, and you can't do it by loafing around.
 
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Offline crimson_stallion

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Bradley Beal too injured.

 Pass!

That's a fair call, as it definitely is a high risk that would carry the potential for another Brandon Roy scenario. 

He is a real good player when he's healthy though, and at 22 years old he has legit superstar potential if his body holds up. 

Totally understand people being unwilling to take the gamble though.

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Of the given list:



NO!



Done.



Not going to move that pick except for an actual star, not the potential of one.

but the pick is just a potential one too....

and we only have like a 25% to land a top 2 pick, maybe less

This.

Also, even if we beat the odds and the pick does fall top 2 - we STILL have no guarantees of getting a future star. 

Jahlil Okafor was an almost unanimous top 2 talent this year and looked like a very safe pick.  While he has shown he definitely has NBA talent (he's clearly going to be a starting caliber big man) he doesn't look like anything close to a future superstar, and if he was on my roster I would trade him for Monroe/Bledsoe/Knight in a heartbeat.

Same can be said for Nerlens Noel, who was projected as the CLEAR #1 talent in his draft before injuries dropped him down the list.

Same can also be said for Jabari Parker - he has some talent and will be an NBA player, but nothing points to big star potential.

So that Brooklyn pick has high value because it has the POTENTIAL to land a Durant/Davis/Towns/Wiggins caliber talent.  But it is still far more likely to return a Parker/Noel/Okafor/Gordon/Oladipo caliber talent.

This is why I, personally, would have to draw a line and say "if somebody offers me XYZ, then I seriously consider trading the pick - but for anything less, no". 

In my case I don't expect a superstar talent back, because nobody is going to trade a young superstar for a pick that is merely a POTENTIAL young superstar - that just makes no sense.  You need to be realistic.  So I set my "XYZ" condition to be that i would NEED to get back a guy who can give me borderline All-Star production over an extended period of time (at least the next three years) and be young enough to still extend after that period. 

I think that is honestly a pretty fair trade-off.  You take back a guy with less ultimate potential than that pick has, but the trade-off is that you are eliminating your risk by taking back a proven producer.  It's all about risk/gain balance at the end of the day.   

What's wrong with taking a risk? Especially since there's no other way besides purposefully being really bad for a season to get a player with superstar potential at his age 19-27 years. A team as good as ours can't tank anymore unless there are catastrophic injuries to multiple players.

A star on his rookie deal has the added benefit of giving you 4 years to surround that star with other high-priced players before his contract becomes too big.

Frankly, most of the names on the list aren't even available, Brooklyn pick or not. So what's the point? Besides, if it's second-tier guys you want, you can always get those in free agency, now a more realistic option for us since our team isn't bad anymore. The top stars are the ones who are almost never available.

There's also the danger of getting too many B-level players, maxing out in the playoffs and never winning a title because we had depth but no mvp-caliber star.