Rondo's Market Value (merged threads)

[Edgar]

ok ok ok I said 8 tops
but if its posible to do it at 10 i say Pull the trigger
and hope hes just that good as we all or most of us think he is

I think the only question is whether he's good enough to guide the Big Three to a few more titles.  I think we know the answer to that question. 

Living up to the contract after they retire would just be icing on the cake. 

mm.. yup
after watching him again today thus far till 3rd quarter
we pay him 5 years , live next two years with the perfect fitting pg
live a 3rd year with not that much of a succesfull team ( in theory if no trades)
and after that we play to change his expiring last 2 years...

[Cman]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

[BballTim]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

[EJPLAYA]

Rondo was decent tonight, especially in the first half, but he let himself slip into Bad Rondo in that second half for quite a stretch. He continues to try and play players like Paul way too close when there is no need and often gets blown by. He then tries to press at times to make the tricky pass and turns it over. There were some bad plays he made in that second half that were more mental issues. He is however a great point guard against mediocre guards in the league. He is definitely that next tier down so it isn't unreasonable for him to think he should be paid close to top 5. If he wants to be paid a max contract he will need to play like a max player. CP showed him tonight that he isn't near as good as he thinks he is. If he corrects his defensive gambling and gets a reliable jumper he will be worth max money.

[Cman]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

[BballTim]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

  Hopefully they are. My point was that signing him this year will likely be cheaper than next summer.

[wdleehi]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

  Hopefully they are. My point was that signing him this year will likely be cheaper than next summer.

How?


Rondo has a number he wants that the Celtics do not want to pay.


The only way to get him to back off that number is if no other team is willing to go that high. 



I think many are overestimating what teams will pay for Rondo.  With a shrinking cap, teams are not going to be able to afford Rondo as a second max FA signing.  And I can't think of a team that can sell Rondo as the guy to build the future on to their fans.  He just isn't that type of franchise player. 

[guava_wrench]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

  Hopefully they are. My point was that signing him this year will likely be cheaper than next summer.

Why? If the cap continues to drop, a lot of FAs will be squeezed out. The most likely to be squeezed out are the RFAs. Teams with the most cap space will fight to immediately sign the top players, and the top players will likely want to sign quick to allow their teams to add more parts. It is always tough for RFAs.

[BballTim]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

  Hopefully they are. My point was that signing him this year will likely be cheaper than next summer.

How?


Rondo has a number he wants that the Celtics do not want to pay.


The only way to get him to back off that number is if no other team is willing to go that high. 



I think many are overestimating what teams will pay for Rondo.  With a shrinking cap, teams are not going to be able to afford Rondo as a second max FA signing.  And I can't think of a team that can sell Rondo as the guy to build the future on to their fans.  He just isn't that type of franchise player. 

  He's playing pretty well right now. If he plays better than he did last year he'll be worth more money. I think it's likely that you're overestimating the amount of fiscal restraint that you'll see from teams with tons of cap space and nobody to spend it on. You don't think teams will be able to sell Rondo as a building block, I disagree. But I don't think the teams are going to do better selling the fact that they've spent the last few years rearranging their rosters to get cap space and not sign anyone of note with that space. You think a team like the Knicks would rather end up with nothing than with a player like Rondo?

[BballTim]

Yikes, the Knicks might offer Rondo the max!!!

Oh wait.  Then the Cs will just match.

Or do people really think that teams will front load  a max contract on Rondo?  Teams like the Knicks are going to offer Rondo $16M or so in his first year? And hang Nate Robinson out to dry?

Um.... nope.

  If a team's going to sign him to a contract then they'll obviously try and do a contract that the Celts won't match. And do you really think the Knocks will hold off on offering Rondo a contract because of Nate Robinson? You know he doesn't even start for them, right?

  And, yes, the Celts can match a contract. But you do understand that their goal is to sign him to the most reasonable contract, right? I'm not sure how letting other teams bid on Rondo is supposed to lower his price.

Aren't the Cs doing what we want them to do?  Trying to get a player for as low a price as possible?  I thank them for this -- if successful, it will maintain financial flexibility in the future.

  Hopefully they are. My point was that signing him this year will likely be cheaper than next summer.

Why? If the cap continues to drop, a lot of FAs will be squeezed out. The most likely to be squeezed out are the RFAs. Teams with the most cap space will fight to immediately sign the top players, and the top players will likely want to sign quick to allow their teams to add more parts. It is always tough for RFAs.

  Because some of the teams with the most cap space won't get any of the top FAs. There's no guarantee that one of them will go for Rondo but there's no guarantee that none of them will. All it takes is one.

[indeedproceed]

Why? If the cap continues to drop, a lot of FAs will be squeezed out. The most likely to be squeezed out are the RFAs. Teams with the most cap space will fight to immediately sign the top players, and the top players will likely want to sign quick to allow their teams to add more parts. It is always tough for RFAs.

  Because some of the teams with the most cap space won't get any of the top FAs. There's no guarantee that one of them will go for Rondo but there's no guarantee that none of them will. All it takes is one.

I tihnk this is exactly why guava is on to something about the rfa's

The Thunder extended Thabo Sefolosha for four years today, and I know what you’re thinking: Why now? Who was coming after this guy with big free agent bucks?

Here’s the answer, and it has to do with cap management. Let's start with the basics: The Thunder are set to have a trove of cap space next summer, around $15 million depending on the cap holds for their two first-round draft picks and where the final cap number comes in.

However, that number would be cut in half by another cap hold – the one on Sefolosha if he became a restricted free agent. Because he was taken with the 13th pick in the 2006 draft, the cap hold on Sefolosha would be $8.1 million next summer. That, in turn, would eat up half the available money for the Thunder’s foray into free agency, a big enough dent to leave them out of the running for next summer’s star players.

If they didn't extend him now, the only way around it would be to either quickly agree to deal with Sefolosha next summer before pursuing free agents, or to renounce his rights entirely and make him an unrestricted free agent. The first option would basically leave the Thunder over a barrel if Sefolosha’s agent is worth his salt, and the second is unappetizing since Oklahoma City views the defensive ace as part of its core going forward.

I might be wrong, but when you make an offer to a RFA, that is immediately tied up for up to and including a week. A week in a FA bonanza is a long time.

Why go for the RFA when there are actual unrestricted FA's out there?

I don't know how much of an impact it will make, but if guys like Sefolosha are getting deals just to avoid a bigger cap hit, then you have to think the fact that a FA is restricted is a pretty big deal when all the teams with cap space have been targeting this summer for years in hopes of improving their squad.

[BballTim]

Why? If the cap continues to drop, a lot of FAs will be squeezed out. The most likely to be squeezed out are the RFAs. Teams with the most cap space will fight to immediately sign the top players, and the top players will likely want to sign quick to allow their teams to add more parts. It is always tough for RFAs.

  Because some of the teams with the most cap space won't get any of the top FAs. There's no guarantee that one of them will go for Rondo but there's no guarantee that none of them will. All it takes is one.

I tihnk this is exactly why guava is on to something about the rfa's

The Thunder extended Thabo Sefolosha for four years today, and I know what you’re thinking: Why now? Who was coming after this guy with big free agent bucks?

Here’s the answer, and it has to do with cap management. Let's start with the basics: The Thunder are set to have a trove of cap space next summer, around $15 million depending on the cap holds for their two first-round draft picks and where the final cap number comes in.

However, that number would be cut in half by another cap hold – the one on Sefolosha if he became a restricted free agent. Because he was taken with the 13th pick in the 2006 draft, the cap hold on Sefolosha would be $8.1 million next summer. That, in turn, would eat up half the available money for the Thunder’s foray into free agency, a big enough dent to leave them out of the running for next summer’s star players.

If they didn't extend him now, the only way around it would be to either quickly agree to deal with Sefolosha next summer before pursuing free agents, or to renounce his rights entirely and make him an unrestricted free agent. The first option would basically leave the Thunder over a barrel if Sefolosha’s agent is worth his salt, and the second is unappetizing since Oklahoma City views the defensive ace as part of its core going forward.

I might be wrong, but when you make an offer to a RFA, that is immediately tied up for up to and including a week. A week in a FA bonanza is a long time.

Why go for the RFA when there are actual unrestricted FA's out there?

I don't know how much of an impact it will make, but if guys like Sefolosha are getting deals just to avoid a bigger cap hit, then you have to think the fact that a FA is restricted is a pretty big deal when all the teams with cap space have been targeting this summer for years in hopes of improving their squad.

  RFAs do get offers if they're good players. Why go after an RFA pg like Rondo when there are UFAs Ray Felton or Chris Duhon? I can think of a reaon or two...

[indeedproceed]

  RFAs do get offers if they're good players. Why go after an RFA pg like Rondo when there are UFAs Ray Felton or Chris Duhon? I can think of a reaon or two...

No, they do get offers, but it severely limits their value. But lets say for instance that the Celtics are prepared to offer 10million dollars per year, and not a penny more.

Who has the room? Lets set the cap at 53.6 million

1) Nets: 24.9 million

2) Knicks: 23.4 million

3) Miami: 18.5 million

4) Chicago: 12.9 million

5) Minny: 12.5 million

6) OKC: 11.8 million

7) Clippers: 11.1 million

So off of that list automatically you can drop the clippers, bulls, nets, thunder and T-Wolves for just a lack of need.

So what are we looking at? The Knicks and the Heat. Both teams have established points in Chalmers and Duhon, but those guys aren't at Rondo's caliber.

However this is where the RFA tag comes in for me. Both teams are trying to attract FA's at the highest levels. Would they waste a week of precious time and obviously over pay for a guy like Rondo, when they could try to improve greater needs on their teams?

Of the 7 with the ability to sign Rondo, I think the Knicks are the biggest threat, and they'll only enter the arena after bigger plans have fallen through.

So even if we don't extend Rondo, I'm not terrified about losing him.

EDIT: Note, all numbers were got from here

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-091030-31

[nickagneta]

Why? If the cap continues to drop, a lot of FAs will be squeezed out. The most likely to be squeezed out are the RFAs. Teams with the most cap space will fight to immediately sign the top players, and the top players will likely want to sign quick to allow their teams to add more parts. It is always tough for RFAs.

  Because some of the teams with the most cap space won't get any of the top FAs. There's no guarantee that one of them will go for Rondo but there's no guarantee that none of them will. All it takes is one.

I tihnk this is exactly why guava is on to something about the rfa's

The Thunder extended Thabo Sefolosha for four years today, and I know what you’re thinking: Why now? Who was coming after this guy with big free agent bucks?

Here’s the answer, and it has to do with cap management. Let's start with the basics: The Thunder are set to have a trove of cap space next summer, around $15 million depending on the cap holds for their two first-round draft picks and where the final cap number comes in.

However, that number would be cut in half by another cap hold – the one on Sefolosha if he became a restricted free agent. Because he was taken with the 13th pick in the 2006 draft, the cap hold on Sefolosha would be $8.1 million next summer. That, in turn, would eat up half the available money for the Thunder’s foray into free agency, a big enough dent to leave them out of the running for next summer’s star players.

If they didn't extend him now, the only way around it would be to either quickly agree to deal with Sefolosha next summer before pursuing free agents, or to renounce his rights entirely and make him an unrestricted free agent. The first option would basically leave the Thunder over a barrel if Sefolosha’s agent is worth his salt, and the second is unappetizing since Oklahoma City views the defensive ace as part of its core going forward.

I might be wrong, but when you make an offer to a RFA, that is immediately tied up for up to and including a week. A week in a FA bonanza is a long time.

Why go for the RFA when there are actual unrestricted FA's out there?

I don't know how much of an impact it will make, but if guys like Sefolosha are getting deals just to avoid a bigger cap hit, then you have to think the fact that a FA is restricted is a pretty big deal when all the teams with cap space have been targeting this summer for years in hopes of improving their squad.

  RFAs do get offers if they're good players. Why go after an RFA pg like Rondo when there are UFAs Ray Felton or Chris Duhon? I can think of a reaon or two...

Yeah I gotta agree with Bball here. Sephalosha was signed to a very low reasonable role player contract to avoid a cap hold of three times his salary. It's not like you can do that with an elite RFA. I think that philosophy is seriously flawed.

If the cap continues to drop what is going to happen is that a lot of the big name UFA's will stick with their teams and suddenly what was once thought of as a deep free agent market is going to be looking rather average. If Wade, Bosh, Lebron and Joe Johnson resign(with the unlikeliest being JJ) who does that leave? Jermaine O'Neal? Tracy McGrady? Ray Allen? Carlos Boozer? Yao Ming or Amare Stoudemire if they opt out?

I think in a down economy most teams are going to be reluctant to give huge money to players with no upside and only downside and every single one of those players fall into that category. But a team like NY, who gets frozen out would definitely give a max or near max front loaded deal to Rondo if they could also land a top center or PF for low 8 figures a year. They would do it in a heartbeat. Rondo and Amare and Chandler and Gallinari in D'Antoni's offense would put NY back on the national television watching map.

[nickagneta]

  RFAs do get offers if they're good players. Why go after an RFA pg like Rondo when there are UFAs Ray Felton or Chris Duhon? I can think of a reaon or two...

No, they do get offers, but it severely limits their value. But lets say for instance that the Celtics are prepared to offer 10million dollars per year, and not a penny more.

Who has the room? Lets set the cap at 53.6 million

1) Nets: 24.9 million

2) Knicks: 23.4 million

3) Miami: 18.5 million

4) Chicago: 12.9 million

5) Minny: 12.5 million

6) OKC: 11.8 million

7) Clippers: 11.1 million

So off of that list automatically you can drop the clippers, bulls, nets, thunder and T-Wolves for just a lack of need.

So what are we looking at? The Knicks and the Heat. Both teams have established points in Chalmers and Duhon, but those guys aren't at Rondo's caliber.

However this is where the RFA tag comes in for me. Both teams are trying to attract FA's at the highest levels. Would they waste a week of precious time and obviously over pay for a guy like Rondo, when they could try to improve greater needs on their teams?

Of the 7 with the ability to sign Rondo, I think the Knicks are the biggest threat, and they'll only enter the arena after bigger plans have fallen through.

So even if we don't extend Rondo, I'm not terrified about losing him.

EDIT: Note, all numbers were got from here

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-091030-31

IP those numbers are flawed. What happens if NY deals Curry or Jeffries for expirings? Miami's numbers include Wade's hold which assumes he is staying there. If he signs elsewhere their numbers go through the roof. I read that article and I am also not sure if the Miami number includes an O'Neal hold. I wouldn't go by those numbers strictly. It's too early and the people who did those numbers aren't the ones that will be making the decisions on which players teams will or will not renounce.