Author Topic: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week  (Read 6635 times)

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Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« on: December 15, 2008, 02:51:14 PM »

Offline mikeford

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http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking

i guess even winning 14 games in a row over tougher competition than the leading cavs played in the past 10 games cant even vault the celtics to #1


hollinger stinks.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2008, 03:28:04 PM »

Offline MBz

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There was another thing he had, where the Cav's had about a 60% chance of winning the eastern conference to the celtics 40% chance.  I forget where the site was or how he figured out, but the numbers were weird.  It had something to do with him simulating the rest of the season.
do it

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2008, 03:30:33 PM »

Offline crownsy

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yea, i'd love to hear why thier SOS is higher than ours.
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Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2008, 03:41:38 PM »

Offline mikeford

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yea, i'd love to hear why thier SOS is higher than ours.

probably because we don't have to play ourselves.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2008, 03:49:20 PM »

Offline NoraG1

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Not long ago Celtics were 7th according to his funny and ridiculous math. Which pretty much means Hollinger is full of it imo.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2008, 04:39:17 PM »

Offline EarthBall

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= the lost child of John Malkovich and Rain Man

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2008, 04:46:06 PM »

Offline ManUp

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They're higher because they blow out the weak teams. We toy with teams and then pull away when the games on the line. In Hollinger's system is more about point differentials at the end of games it seems.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2008, 05:20:12 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Somehow no-one hated Hollinger last season, when we were dead first in his rankings for 90% of the season, eh?

We're playing worse this season than we did last season. The Cavs and the Lakers are playing better. If playoffs started tomorrow, I'd be worried about the outcome of a 7-game series with the Cavs.

The methodology of calculating the ratings is known. Apparently people around here have problems with any sort of objective treatment of basketball (as long as it's not groveling at the Cs feet). I am very curious to hear actual arguments against the way these rankings are constructed. Unfortunately, saying "X is full of it" is not one of them.
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Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2008, 05:22:57 PM »

Offline I Am A Boston Celtic

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« Last Edit: December 15, 2008, 05:39:15 PM by IndeedProceed »

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2008, 05:26:22 PM »

Offline I Am A Boston Celtic

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Somehow no-one hated Hollinger last season, when we were dead first in his rankings for 90% of the season, eh?

We're playing worse this season than we did last season. The Cavs and the Lakers are playing better. If playoffs started tomorrow, I'd be worried about the outcome of a 7-game series with the Cavs.

The methodology of calculating the ratings is known. Apparently people around here have problems with any sort of objective treatment of basketball (as long as it's not groveling at the Cs feet). I am very curious to hear actual arguments against the way these rankings are constructed. Unfortunately, saying "X is full of it" is not one of them.

That's because the flaws in the system were not un-earthed last year.

This year they have been, as was said before his system seems to be based around point differental, rather than who you actually beat, that's why I like the computerised College Football Ranking System, it doesn't care if you win by 1 or win by 30, a win is a win.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2008, 05:41:43 PM »

Offline Brendan

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The mostly homer-ism on this thread is silly. Hollinger's statistics at most have the Celtics underrated by one place to a team that is at worst within the margin of error of the Celtics and nearly as hot, and people say he should be fired?

At any rate, I do think he might be weighting point differential a bit incorrectly Jeff Sag. uses a diminishing value to blow outs so the value of winning by 10 instead of 1, is not the same as 20 instead of 10 (etc) - but maybe Hollinger has it right, and that stat-wise Lebron's Cavs look better. There is still a margin of error and the season is still young - so the stats can swing back towards the C's and matchups do matter when playing, he'd be the first to say his stats are one tool for analysis, not the end all be all.

Update: clarity.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2008, 05:59:25 PM by Brendan »

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2008, 05:49:31 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I posted a fanpost about Hollinger's per diem...check it out if you want verification that he's more than just major

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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2008, 05:52:04 PM »

Offline NoraG1

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Somehow no-one hated Hollinger last season, when we were dead first in his rankings for 90% of the season, eh?

We're playing worse this season than we did last season. The Cavs and the Lakers are playing better. If playoffs started tomorrow, I'd be worried about the outcome of a 7-game series with the Cavs.

The methodology of calculating the ratings is known. Apparently people around here have problems with any sort of objective treatment of basketball (as long as it's not groveling at the Cs feet). I am very curious to hear actual arguments against the way these rankings are constructed. Unfortunately, saying "X is full of it" is not one of them.

I have no problem with Holinger not 'groveling at the Celtics feet' but he at one point put them 7th! That is ridiculous. After that I think Hollinger is overrated.

Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2008, 05:54:40 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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It's just the Margin of Victory right now.... which is sort of a good and bad thing to use.  Yeah, it's a noteworthy stat... but it gets skewed in every single blowout when the leading team rests starters.


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Re: Hollinger's funny math bumps the C's up to 2nd this week
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2008, 06:04:21 PM »

Offline Brendan

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Hollinger didn't put the C's at seventh: he devised a statistical method for looking at a teams results to date and predicting the likely outcomes of the season. As the season goes on the stats get more reliable because a larger sample size reduces the margin of error.

Baseball Prospectus uses something similar to predict playoff odds, and while it seems to be pretty good at predicting general results (who will be what seeds in the playoffs) its not been as impressive in head to heads, I would guess with basketball match-ups being even more important to any game or series the approach is even worse here. For example I believe Hollinger predicted BOS to sweep ATL in 2008 playoffs with a ridiculously high confidence level and pointed out that by his stats it was very rare for a team that bad to take a team as good as the C's to the 7th game - nonetheless it happened.