David Thorpe on Rajon Rondo

[Michael Anthony]

He's one of the best finishers in basketball at his position. Consider the stats of his peers. According to 82games.com, Chris Paul makes 68 percent of his "close shots" and takes 31 percent of his overall shots from that distance. Another brilliant slasher who's having a great year, Devin Harris, hits 60.2 percent of his close shots, which he takes 32 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Tony Parker makes 62.1 percent of his close shots, which he also takes 32 percent of the time.

But Rondo's numbers are so good they seem silly. A staggering 52 percent of his shots come near the rim, and he makes an even more staggering 72 percent of them. That fact alone has helped Boston improve its offense to a top-10 level. And combined with its still-suffocating defense (thanks in good measure to Rondo's talents), the Celtics are off to a franchise-best start.

Full Text:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=Rondo-081212

[Big Ticket]

I noticed those stats during my own perusing of 82games.  But I don't jump to conclusions as easily as Thorpe, maybe because I actually watch Rondo...

1) The 3 players he listed trust their jump shots.
2) The 3 players he listed take a lot more shots overall, including in the paint, and much more that are a gamble or attempt to get fouled.
3) Rondo rarely takes jumpers (explains the 52% taken close up).
4) Rondo passes up plenty up close shots (explaining the high % of makes).

Rondo is definitely very talented at getting to the basket and has a knack for getting those shots to fall... but those percentages can't be viewed in a silo.  Number of attempts is a required complement to that data.

[crownsy]

I noticed those stats during my own perusing of 82games.  But I don't jump to conclusions as easily as Thorpe, maybe because I actually watch Rondo...

1) The 3 players he listed trust their jump shots.
2) The 3 players he listed take a lot more shots overall, including in the paint, and much more that are a gamble or attempt to get fouled.
3) Rondo rarely takes jumpers (explains the 52% taken close up).
4) Rondo passes up plenty up close shots (explaining the high % of makes).

Rondo is definitely very talented at getting to the basket and has a knack for getting those shots to fall... but those percentages can't be viewed in a silo.  Number of attempts is a required complement to that data.

I don't see how that relates directly to his point, though your right about the other players trusting thier jumpers of course.

He was simply talking about being a good finsher at the rim, he even says that, that he is only talking about finshing at the cup. Why would those players trusting thier jumpshot have anything to do with thier current % of succesful finshes at the basket on layups?

you proved he takes alot more chances at the rim than the guard who trusts his jumper, which is true to a fault with him, but how does that releate to what thorpe was saying? Thorpe said early on he was simply talking about rondo's finshing at the rim ablity, which alot of your post has no bearing on (others trust jumper, not trusting his jumper accounts for 52, passes up low percentage shots at the rim)

That one was the stat i felt was most out of place. doesn't a 72% make per5centage show hes right when he passes up the layup to pass? If he's right 72% of the time, then i need to give him more credit on his finshing decesions, not less.

I'm not saying your points aren't valid about rondo, i'm just saying i question how they disprove thrope's assursion that he's a good finsher at the rim.

They are certainly vaild criticsms of his game though.

[Brendan]

72% being a good number actually depends - it bcould actually be high - maybe it means he's passing out of situations where he might hit say 60% of his shots, but the result is a situation where only 50% of the shots get his. So he could basically be protecting his own percentage at a cost to his team. Having highly efficient guys around him like Ray Allen, PP, and KG makes this a bit more unlikely than for a guy like Harris.

[greg683x]

Funny thing is, Thorpe calls Rondo having 52% of his shots being close shots staggering.

While I'm sitting here scratching my head saying "Really??  48% of Rondos shots have been jumpers??"  Rondo's been shooting his jumper a little more lately (and been making it more too) but still I was suprised that number was as low as 52%.

[crownsy]

72% being a good number actually depends - it bcould actually be high - maybe it means he's passing out of situations where he might hit say 60% of his shots, but the result is a situation where only 50% of the shots get his. So he could basically be protecting his own percentage at a cost to his team. Having highly efficient guys around him like Ray Allen, PP, and KG makes this a bit more unlikely than for a guy like Harris.

I dont buy that, you want him to miss more so that he falls inline with the league instead of picking his times with a very high degree of success?

thats like saying a guy with low power numbers who walks alot isn't aggresive enough at the plate, and is hurting the team due to only getting one base.

you also dimiss out of hand that his passes from inside lead to wasy buckets in favor of him "passing up shots and hurting us"

I dont think a ray allen 3 or perk/Kg dunk hurts us, which is mostly what he gets us a shot at when he passes in thier. To justify your claim, he'd have to turn the ball over more than he does. He doesn't make risky passes in thier as much as some would like to belive.

[Big Ticket]

I noticed those stats during my own perusing of 82games.  But I don't jump to conclusions as easily as Thorpe, maybe because I actually watch Rondo...

1) The 3 players he listed trust their jump shots.
2) The 3 players he listed take a lot more shots overall, including in the paint, and much more that are a gamble or attempt to get fouled.
3) Rondo rarely takes jumpers (explains the 52% taken close up).
4) Rondo passes up plenty up close shots (explaining the high % of makes).

Rondo is definitely very talented at getting to the basket and has a knack for getting those shots to fall... but those percentages can't be viewed in a silo.  Number of attempts is a required complement to that data.

I don't see how that relates directly to his point, though your right about the other players trusting thier jumpers of course.

He was simply talking about being a good finsher at the rim, he even says that, that he is only talking about finshing at the cup. Why would those players trusting thier jumpshot have anything to do with thier current % of succesful finshes at the basket on layups?

you proved he takes alot more chances at the rim than the guard who trusts his jumper, which is true to a fault with him, but how does that releate to what thorpe was saying? Thorpe said early on he was simply talking about rondo's finshing at the rim ablity, which alot of your post has no bearing on (others trust jumper, not trusting his jumper accounts for 52, passes up low percentage shots at the rim)

That one was the stat i felt was most out of place. doesn't a 72% make per5centage show hes right when he passes up the layup to pass? If he's right 72% of the time, then i need to give him more credit on his finshing decesions, not less.

I'm not saying your points aren't valid about rondo, i'm just saying i question how they disprove thrope's assursion that he's a good finsher at the rim.

They are certainly vaild criticsms of his game though.

I think you misunderstood me.

The part about the other PGs having reliable jumpers was meant to touch on his mention of Rondo's "staggering" 52% of shots taken near the rim.... not at all about his ability to finish. 

And passing up lower percentage shots at the rim has a HUGE implication on his 'at the rim' shooting percentage.  That was my point.  He passes up a lot of chances around the basket that the other guys would not.  That results in a higher percentage on fewer attempts.  And like you said, maybe that shows good decision making... I wasn't commenting at all at that. 

I was simply saying that you can't merely say "Rondo shoots 72% at the rim and Paul shoots 68%, therefore Rondo is a better finisher."  It's not that simple, and I would in fact disagree.  When volume and degree of difficulty are added, I think Paul is a better converter of shots near the basket.

[BballTim]

I noticed those stats during my own perusing of 82games.  But I don't jump to conclusions as easily as Thorpe, maybe because I actually watch Rondo...

1) The 3 players he listed trust their jump shots.
2) The 3 players he listed take a lot more shots overall, including in the paint, and much more that are a gamble or attempt to get fouled.
3) Rondo rarely takes jumpers (explains the 52% taken close up).
4) Rondo passes up plenty up close shots (explaining the high % of makes).

Rondo is definitely very talented at getting to the basket and has a knack for getting those shots to fall... but those percentages can't be viewed in a silo.  Number of attempts is a required complement to that data.

  Paul, Parker and Harris all average 4-5 inside shots a game. Rondo averages 4.2 a game. Rondo passes up some shots but he also gets a lot of assists from those drives.

[Amonkey]

What I have noticed from Rondo's shot is that he has a little Ray and Pierce in them.  First, I love how he makes those "low off the glass" lay ups like Ray Allen.  They are very similar as in it's right off the glass making it hard to block it and with very low angle, making it easier to score the basket (instead of bouncing off the rim). 

With Pierce it's a little bit harder to see, but I am talking about the steps when he's taking it to the basket.  Rondo is taking some very large steps changing the angles slightly to change the direction and taking the defender out of the game.

Of course, he also adds his Rondoing to it, doing it in superfast speed and the his own crazy moves under the basket.  I wish I could add videos so you guys know what I mean, but that's what I see in Rondo.  Basically, very smart shots learned from the very best.

[cordobes]

Meh... Rondo would be a very good finisher if he didn't struggle to finish through contact and with his off-hand. He's excellent getting to the rim but just good finishing there.

Accordingly to this reasoning, Joel Przybilla is the best inside finisher in the entire NBA.

Funny thing is, Thorpe calls Rondo having 52% of his shots being close shots staggering.

While I'm sitting here scratching my head saying "Really??  48% of Rondos shots have been jumpers??"  Rondo's been shooting his jumper a little more lately (and been making it more too) but still I was suprised that number was as low as 52%.

He got the numbers wrong. Actually it's 58% inside (73% eFG) - 42% jumpers (26% eFG).

[BballTim]

He got the numbers wrong. Actually it's 58% inside (73% eFG) - 42% jumpers (26% eFG).

  I'm not an insider but I'm guessing the article is a few games old.

[cordobes]

He got the numbers wrong. Actually it's 58% inside (73% eFG) - 42% jumpers (26% eFG).

  I'm not an insider but I'm guessing the article is a few games old.

2 or 3 days old. He got it wrong. The stats didn't change so drastically because of the New Orleans games.

[Brendan]

I dont buy that, you want him to miss more so that he falls inline with the league instead of picking his times with a very high degree of success?

thats like saying a guy with low power numbers who walks alot isn't aggresive enough at the plate, and is hurting the team due to only getting one base.

you also dimiss out of hand that his passes from inside lead to wasy buckets in favor of him "passing up shots and hurting us"

I dont think a ray allen 3 or perk/Kg dunk hurts us, which is mostly what he gets us a shot at when he passes in thier. To justify your claim, he'd have to turn the ball over more than he does. He doesn't make risky passes in thier as much as some would like to belive.

1. I was explaining how the high percentage is not good per se. It depends on what he's doing with the ball. I didn't say one way or the other if I thought it was right - just explaining how. Here's the premise:

When Rondo drives now let's say 5/10 times he shoots with 75% EFG and 5/10 he dishes for a EFG% of 50 (slighly below team average). That means you expect 2 * .75 * 5 (or 7.5 points) on his takes and 2 * .50 * 5 (or 5 points) on his dishes - meaning you expect 12.5. Theoretically he could take more shots and have his percentage fall off, with the overall team epected points higher. That's all I was saying.


2. Your claims need some more support - I don't have the ability to figure out what's happening when Rondo gets inside and dishes, but every single time can't be a dunk or Ray Allen three. Going back to my point, you have to look further down the sequence to see what the effect is, you cannot just assume it. And although your anecdotal evidence is persuasive, without some harder empirical evidence, its not enough.

3. Maybe I wasn't clear, but when I said he's dishing off to RA, PP, and KG - I was implying that means passing is a better option for RR than it is for some of the other PGs mentioned who are not as efficient scorers. (i.e. even when he doesn't get an assist out of it, he's still likely disrupted the defense and got the ball to a HoFer - that's good play in and of itself.)

To expand on your baseball analogy, take a guy with a .600 SLG (good), but only a .250 OBP (bad) - if that guy could raise his OBP 200 points at the expense of the SLG by even 250 PTS, he'd be a much more valuable offensive player. I don't know that a baseball player can just decide to do that anymore if Rondo could make the change I suggested - but it is possible that a good quality - e.g. the high SLG in my hypothetical or Rondo's eFG% - comes at the overall detriment to the team.

[Sweet17]

Yes Thorpe is wrong. I agree with the other posters.. The "close" shooting percentage simply doesn't tell you the answers you really want to know with regards to determining 'finishing" ability. It's quite shortsighted the way he uses that stat.

Guys can pump up their assist totals or shooting percentages very easily by changing their playstyle. Rondo is so quick that he manages to get to the basket alot and still pass up alot of tough layups..

I realize this sounds like a cop out. But the best finisher in the NBA is likely Lebron or Wade and both of them have lower "numbers" then Rondo. But in reality we know they take tougher shots.

Pete