The roster and preseason

[Snakehead]

Check the numbers for different lineups with Al from last year if you guys think he is playing that much C for next year (and starting Morris who isn't even actually good at PF) and Stevens is playing that much small ball.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01/lineups/2017

Most used 5 man rotation with Al:

1st: Al at PF, Amir at C with 432 mins

2nd: Al at PF, Amir at C with 192 mins

3rd: Al at C, Crowder at PF with 134 mins

4th: Al at C, Olynyk at PF (not totally sure the position distinction is seperate when they both played together but whatever) with 103 mins

5th: Al at PF, Amir at C with 97 mins

6th: Al at PF, Amir at C with 95 mins

7th: Al at C, Olynyk at PF with 82 mins

8th: Al at C, Jerebko at PF with 56 mins

9th: Al at C, Jerebko at PF with 52 mins

10th: Al at C, Crowder at PF with 43 mins.


The team is not flipping small ball that hard.  Those 800+ minutes aren't going away.  I do think the team goes small more often and "small" is a bit different since we can have a guy as big as Hayward or Jaylen Brown playing the 2.  And come playoff time a guy like Zizic, who I think plays, probably won't see the floor and even Baynes may not much depending on match ups.

I think it's funny we all together have watched for example Stevens play Zeller more than anyone wants because he likes to play legit Centers in the regular season and some of you guys think he won't play our bigs this year.

[jpotter33]

I think you'll be surprised. The extra spacing/shooting and defensive versatility he provides out on the perimeter should more than make up for the marginal rebounding loss we get from going from Amir to Morris.

I think the rebounding downgrade from Amir(17% DRR)/Kelly(20%) combo to Morris (12%) is a more than marginal. Let's just hope he'll trend towards his career average of 14%

I mean, averaged out in DRB% Amir (18.6) and KO (18.1) average out to 18.35%; whereas, Morris (14.0) and Baynes (21.2) average out to 17.6%.

In ORB% Amir (10. and KO (7.1) average out to 8.95%; whereas, Morris (4.1) and Baynes (11.4) average out to 7.75%.

In TRB% Amir (14.7) and KO (12.6) average out to 13.65%; whereas, Morris (8.9) and Baynes (16.2) average out to 12.55%.

So, yeah, I'd say that's a marginal downgrade in the rebounding department for much needed upgrades in rim protection, defensive versatility, and iso-offense. And when you consider the fact that losing Amir and KO was necessary to get Hayward anyways, I think Morris and Baynes are more than capable replacements for them.

[tarheelsxxiii]

And Horford isn't a PF, no matter how much he wants to call himself one.

And starting with Morris at the 4 is not "small ball." Small ball would be playing Jae as the 4. Morris has enough size to be a full-time stretch 4 in today's game. We're actually pretty decently sized in a lineup of IT, Brown, Hayward, Morris, and Horford.

Dude... he played at PF for us so much last year what are you talking about?  He started almost every single game at PF.

Morris is not good at PF.  I think people are acting like him and brother are the same without doing any research.  He isn't starting at PF for this team.

The "today's NBA" thing you're saying is small ball.

Stevens loves to run small line ups but he almost never, ever starts them.  All anyone has to do is look at any of Stevens history to say he probably starts big with Baynes then goes small after.

I'd think he's leaning towards starting Morris.  Where are you pulling his PF stats, though?  I had a link for that kind of stat but can't recall it...

[jpotter33]

And Horford isn't a PF, no matter how much he wants to call himself one.

And starting with Morris at the 4 is not "small ball." Small ball would be playing Jae as the 4. Morris has enough size to be a full-time stretch 4 in today's game. We're actually pretty decently sized in a lineup of IT, Brown, Hayward, Morris, and Horford.

Dude... he played at PF for us so much last year what are you talking about?  He started almost every single game at PF.

Morris is not good at PF.  I think people are acting like him and brother are the same without doing any research.  He isn't starting at PF for this team.

The "today's NBA" thing you're saying is small ball.

Stevens loves to run small line ups but he almost never, ever starts them.  All anyone has to do is look at any of Stevens history to say he probably starts big with Baynes then goes small after.

Yeah, he played completely out of position as the PF for literally the first year in his ten year career, and he was regularly burned by stretch fours who were too quick for him to defend out on the perimeter. How many games did Love absolutely torch Horford last year?

Game 1: Al didn't play with a concussion

Game 2: 30 pts and 15 rebs

Game 3: Love didn't play with a knee issue

Game 4: 15 pts and 16 rebs

Playoffs: 32 and 12, 21 and 12, 28 and 10, 17 and 17, and 15 and 11.

Al regularly struggled with stretch fours all season long, because he's a C not a PF, especially at this point in his career.

And you can't point at Stevens starting Horford at PF this past year out of necessity as some sort of proof that we'll start Baynes. He did it out of necessity; who else was he supposed to start?

KO? He wasn't ready or good enough for starter's minutes, and we needed his scoring off the bench. JJ? Not good enough, even though I hold he was the best person in a bad situation to start last year. Crowder? That's WAY too small given that Crowder is only 6'6".

This year we actually DO have options, and Morris is the best one to start at PF.

[jpotter33]

Check the numbers for different lineups with Al from last year if you guys think he is playing that much C for next year (and starting Morris who isn't even actually good at PF) and Stevens is playing that much small ball.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01/lineups/2017

Most used 5 man rotation with Al:

1st: Al at PF, Amir at C with 432 mins

2nd: Al at PF, Amir at C with 192 mins

3rd: Al at C, Crowder at PF with 134 mins

4th: Al at C, Olynyk at PF (not totally sure the position distinction is seperate when they both played together but whatever) with 103 mins

5th: Al at PF, Amir at C with 97 mins

6th: Al at PF, Amir at C with 95 mins

7th: Al at C, Olynyk at PF with 82 mins

8th: Al at C, Jerebko at PF with 56 mins

9th: Al at C, Jerebko at PF with 52 mins

10th: Al at C, Crowder at PF with 43 mins.


The team is not flipping small ball that hard.  Those 800+ minutes aren't going away.  I do think the team goes small more often and "small" is a bit different since we can have a guy as big as Hayward or Jaylen Brown playing the 2.  And come playoff time a guy like Zizic, who I think plays, probably won't see the floor and even Baynes may not much depending on match ups.

I think it's funny we all together have watched for example Stevens play Zeller more than anyone wants because he likes to play legit Centers in the regular season and some of you guys think he won't play our bigs this year.

LIke I said in the previous post, that was due to necessity, not choice.

It's a false analogy to compare past years to this year, because we have an actual good starting option now and no need to keep certain other options on the bench for scoring, playmaking, etc.

And literally nobody says that "he won't play our bigs this year." I certainly never have. Come on, Snake. That's a strawman. I think Baynes gets nearly 20 minutes off the bench as the main bench big. But I just really don't see us playing Al and Baynes together except for matchup-specific purposes.

[Snakehead]

https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/885120217138974722

 Keith Smith @KeithSmithNBA


Q: What do you expect the Celtics starting lineup to be? And their rotation off the bench? How do you think Brad share minutes?

A: Baynes/Horford/Crowder/Hayward/Thomas with lots of minutes for Smart, Brown, Tatum and Morris off the bench. Especially early on.