2024 NFL Draft

[Birdman]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

[Roy H.]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

[Birdman]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Then next year, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance,Mac Jones & Justin Fields were pick & looks like they not gotta be stats let alone starters, so it’s a gamble big time..coaches & GMs are fired cause of this or give extensions lol

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

[Birdman]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Then next year, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance,Mac Jones & Justin Fields were pick & looks like they not gotta be stars let alone starters, so it’s a gamble big time..coaches & GMs are fired cause of this or give extensions lol

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

Then next year Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones & Justin Fields were pick & looks like they not gotta be stats let alone starters, so it’s a gamble big time…coaches & GMs are fired or giving extensions over picking a QB early lol

[libermaniac]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

Give. The crapshoot nature of it all, I certainly wouldn’t trade up if I were the Vikings or Giants or Broncos. Is JJ McCarthy really that much better of a prospect than Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr to justify throwing several extra picks into the trade?

[Donoghus]

Is there any chance the Krafts don't meddle in this Pats decision?

I really don't have confidence there.

[Moranis]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love)

the problem with QB is NFL teams take them well before they should because they are so important.  So they overdraft them and put unrealistic expectations on them by doing so. The first 3 picks will be a QB, but Williams is the only one rated as a top 4 player in this draft, ad an example.

[Celtics2021]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

Give. The crapshoot nature of it all, I certainly wouldn’t trade up if I were the Vikings or Giants or Broncos. Is JJ McCarthy really that much better of a prospect than Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr to justify throwing several extra picks into the trade?

Yes, he’s a far superior prospect. I think the Pats should take him at 3, let him marinate as the backup for a season (or at least until they’re eliminated from the playoffs or injuries press him into service) and then reap the rewards beginning in 2025.  He will be an elite NFL QB if he’s given a year to develop (i.e. not tossed behind a porous line with stone-handed receivers like he would be this year on the Pats).

[Vermont Green]

Trubisky went ahead of Mahomes and Watson in 2017, with DeShone Kizer going in the second round.  Mayfield and Darnold went ahead of Josh Allen in 2018 (Josh Rosen was first round pick that year too).  Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019.  2020 was a good year (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love) but then 2021 was not (Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields).  Kenny Pickett in 2022.  2023 may turn out to be a good draft (Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson)

That is 23 first round QBs since 2017.  How many of them are NFL starter level players, 11 or 12?  So about a 50-50 hit rate.  That is a lot of uncertainty for a #3 pick.  Yes, you have to take your shot at a QB if you get a high pick.  But to think that you know that Daniels or Williams is absolutely going to be better than Maye or McCarthy is simply fool's gold.  The Pats will take a QB, I don't doubt that or second guess that.  But history shows that it is very hard to predict which QBs are going to be good.

[Roy H.]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love).

Give. The crapshoot nature of it all, I certainly wouldn’t trade up if I were the Vikings or Giants or Broncos. Is JJ McCarthy really that much better of a prospect than Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr to justify throwing several extra picks into the trade?

Yes, he’s a far superior prospect. I think the Pats should take him at 3, let him marinate as the backup for a season (or at least until they’re eliminated from the playoffs or injuries press him into service) and then reap the rewards beginning in 2025.  He will be an elite NFL QB if he’s given a year to develop (i.e. not tossed behind a porous line with stone-handed receivers like he would be this year on the Pats).

I thought you were crazy projecting McCarthy in the top-6, but now that seems to be the consensus.  I'm seeing a lot of prognosticators sending him to the Giants.

[Moranis]

Trubisky went ahead of Mahomes and Watson in 2017, with DeShone Kizer going in the second round.  Mayfield and Darnold went ahead of Josh Allen in 2018 (Josh Rosen was first round pick that year too).  Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019.  2020 was a good year (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love) but then 2021 was not (Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields).  Kenny Pickett in 2022.  2023 may turn out to be a good draft (Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson)

That is 23 first round QBs since 2017.  How many of them are NFL starter level players, 11 or 12?  So about a 50-50 hit rate.  That is a lot of uncertainty for a #3 pick.  Yes, you have to take your shot at a QB if you get a high pick.  But to think that you know that Daniels or Williams is absolutely going to be better than Maye or McCarthy is simply fool's gold.  The Pats will take a QB, I don't doubt that or second guess that.  But history shows that it is very hard to predict which QBs are going to be good.

I'm not sure that is much different than other positions and again QB's are pretty consistently overdrafted. That is the real issue. Teams reach and take them higher than they should.

[Roy H.]

How many these QBs will flop? Happen every year, teams goes crazy on getting a QB then 3-4 years later they are release or traded..I really don’t see any of these QBs being stars but never know

Probability says some will flop, but then you look at a draft like 2020 where all four first round QBs have been successful.  (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love)

the problem with QB is NFL teams take them well before they should because they are so important.  So they overdraft them and put unrealistic expectations on them by doing so. The first 3 picks will be a QB, but Williams is the only one rated as a top 4 player in this draft, ad an example.

I'm curious, whose final draft ratings are you looking at?  What did their top-five look like?  I'm assuming 1. Williams 2. Harrison.  Who did they have next?  Nabers?  Alt?

It's weird to me how many analysts' "big boards" shift after the season is over.  Mock drafts are based on need, but the player rankings shouldn't shift too much unless somebody does something exceptional at the combine.

[Roy H.]

Top-10 based upon betting odds:

https://sports.yahoo.com/based-on-the-odds-heres-what-the-top-10-picks-of-the-nfl-draft-will-be-181009297.html

[Roy H.]

The New England Patriots haven’t hidden their willingness to listen to trade offers for the No. 3 overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, but per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, multiple teams, including the Minnesota Vikings, have attempted to move up.

Sitting at No. 3, the Patriots have a ton of leverage in one of the rare drafts where three of the top quarterbacks could easily be considered the No. 1 overall pick.

Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels are expected to be available on the board, and those are two high-end prospects every quarterback-needy team in the NFL would love to have a crack at.

The problem for those teams is the fact that the Patriots desperately need a quarterback as well. So this isn’t a situation of them looking to force a trade before they’re on the clock on Thursday night. The Patriots would be happy to stay put and get their quarterback of the future, unless some outlandish trade offer wows them enough to move down the board.

Schefter wrote:

The Patriots, slated to pick No. 3, also have been fielding calls from teams. It would take a big offer for New England to move off that spot knowing it needs to come out of Round 1 with a quarterback, but the team has listened. And the Vikings, among others, have attempted to move up.

Tom E. Curran claimed he believes it could take “a lot more” than three first-round draft picks to get the Patriots to agree to trade the No. 3 pick. For a team like the Vikings, one has to wonder if they’d need to include All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson in a package to get a deal done.

I don't buy the speculation in the last paragraph, but it does sound like there's a ton of interest in moving up.

[Vermont Green]

Top-10 based upon betting odds:

https://sports.yahoo.com/based-on-the-odds-heres-what-the-top-10-picks-of-the-nfl-draft-will-be-181009297.html

This top 10 is totally realistic.  Doesn't mean the books will be right, but this seems very reasonable.  JJ McCarthy is not in the top 10 on this list.  So we can trade with MIN and still get JJ-Mc at #11.  Sign me up.

My guess is that the trade up market isn't as hot as some years.  Why would MIN offer a boat-load to move up to #3 when they can get McCarthy or Penix by staying put (if you trust this bookmaker mock)?  I bet they don't want to be this draft's San Fran, even if they think Maye is their guy.