In games 1 and 3 the Celtics beat themselves more than anything. Turnovers are the primary reason we lost both of those games. The Heat's defense was certainly very good in game 3, but we were shooting ourselves in the foot the entire game.
Maybe I'm not giving the Heat enough credit. But despite 23 whopping turnovers - many of them live turnovers - and a terrible start by the Celtics, the Heat only mustered 109 points. That is not impressive, even if Butler missed the 2nd half. We would have lost to the worst teams in the league yesterday with that sorry effort we had.
The Celtics are the better team, both on paper and in practice, especially when healthy. If they take care of the ball (big if, obviously) and limit offensive rebounding for the Heat we definitely win the series. I picked the Celtics in 6 or 7. Probably 7 seeing as how we're having health problems and not playing great ball yet in this series.