Lebron all time lists

[Somebody]

I honestly think Lebron will be the last person to have a realistic shot at catching Malone, let alone Kareem.  Even if another genetic freak comes along, having a prime of 20 ish years where the guy plays 75+ games every single season has to be considered so minuscule that I just can't see it happening again.  Even if that guy remains relatively healthy with load management, rest, etc. I just don't think a true legit scorer like that will get the requisite games played.  I mean look at someone like Carmelo.  He has just over 26,000 points.  He is still nearly 11000 points from Malone and you are talking about one of the greatest scorers of his generation. Durant has 23000, Harden has just over 20,000.  Last year Harden had 2800 points playing in 78 games.  To even catch Malone he would need nearly 6 more seasons exactly like that (and that isn't happening).  Though I suppose if Harden plays till he is 40 he might catch Malone.

Even if they don't shorten the season, I just don't see anyone else really getting the games played at the level of play needed to get there.  Then again genetic freaks come along every so often, so who knows maybe someone gets there some day.  Though I do think Lebron is going to blow way past Kareem so getting to him may be impossible, but maybe someone else catches Kareem.

Doncic? I know he doesn't strike people as a genetic freak, but imo his game can age really well with his skill and size for a guard.

Maybe, but he missed 10 games last year and has already missed 4 this year. 

If you told me a current player would get into that range, I'd probably pick Towns as before this season he missed just 5 games and came into the league scoring well (18.3 ppg as a rookie and 22.6 ppg average in his short 4.5 season career).  The injury this season would give me more hesitation on that, but I do think Towns can age very well given his excellent 3 point range and improved passing he has shown this year.

Giannis would also have to be considered as he is a year older than Towns and has around a great year's of scoring more points than Towns.  I just expect him to be more banged up (like 70ish games a year) and don't know if he will still be a great scoring threat once he loses some of the athleticism once he starts to age.   

Giannis and Towns are by far the 2 youngest players in the top 100 of active players (I think Oladipo is next youngest).  Young and Doncic have come into the league like crazy scoring machines, but they are also in their 2nd year.  A lot can happen, I'd need to see at least 4 or 5 years of this level of play and more importantly health before I'd even consider them getting anywhere near becoming an all time great scorer.  Young in particularly seems like he will be prone to injuries (similar to someone like Iverson or Curry if you want a more modern guy) just given his frame and style of play.

Not sure if Curry belongs to that catgeory - he's been pretty durable for most of his career (only 3 seasons below 69 games in a 10 year career) and is actually pretty bulky for a 6'3 guard. He's really not a scrawny guy who gets injured and roughed up easily, he's a pretty feisty guard with a nice motor and pretty good durability.

As for Doncic, I think last year was just him adjusting to the NBA schedule, and him being out for 4 games up to this point prorates to 74 games a season - not that far off from 75.

I definitely think Towns has a shot - his offence is transcendent among big men imo and he's shown great durability so far in his career (he was an iron man before he got a couple of knocks this season or the last iirc). As for Giannis I'm not sure, I think he'll have to reinvent himself completely like LeBron to keep on scoring at a high rate, which will be harder for him by just looking at his shot mechanics and stuff. I think he'll end up in the top 20 when it's all said and done but hewon't have a ceiling like Towns'.

[celticsclay]

Yea, we won't know which guy is more durable until about ten years from now, but I do think we are seeing a bunch of things that will lengthen the career of the elite players if they want to. Better medical care, a more spread out schedule, less back to backs, better nutrition, better amenities for flights and hotels. Its come a long way from players operating as Taxi drivers in the offseason. I think we will see someone playing till 45 in the next 20 years if somebody wants to (it very well could be Lebron himself). Vince Carter turned 43 today and is playing 15 minutes a game right now and he spent the first half of his career in a league that was not set up for longevity like it is now (all the above mentioned differences). Would he have played even longer if he had those advantages his whole career?

[bdm860]

Yea, we won't know which guy is more durable until about ten years from now, but I do think we are seeing a bunch of things that will lengthen the career of the elite players if they want to. Better medical care, a more spread out schedule, less back to backs, better nutrition, better amenities for flights and hotels. Its come a long way from players operating as Taxi drivers in the offseason. I think we will see someone playing till 45 in the next 20 years if somebody wants to (it very well could be Lebron himself). Vince Carter turned 43 today and is playing 15 minutes a game right now and he spent the first half of his career in a league that was not set up for longevity like it is now (all the above mentioned differences). Would he have played even longer if he had those advantages his whole career?

I got to wonder if it cuts both ways though.  Better science/nutrition/amenities/rest today than 20+ years ago when you had guys playing 4 games in 5 nights, flying commercial and taking buses, when averaging 40+ mpg was normal.  So ya you'd think guys should be healthier and more rested now leading to longer careers.

But back then, basketball also wasn't a full time job since elementary school.  A lot of kids that show talent are pushed to specialize early and focus only on basketball 365 days a year.  If you read either of the David Esptein books, "The Sports Gene" and "Range" (both fascinating books I would recommend reading), he talks the many scientific studies that show how ineffective and unhealthy early specialization is.  Things like playing 1 sport all year every year can give you knees of a 60 year old at age 20, where if you played basketball for 3 months, then baseball for 3 months, then soccer for 3 months, your body would be stronger and not as worn down despite still playing sports all year.  So is it that early, exclusive focus on basketball that's causing a rise in things like ACL tears?  Is guys coming into the league younger, also negatively impacting their bodies?

Also, those same things that benefit players at 40-45, will also benefit all the younger players they're competing with.  So players may be healthier at 45, but they'll still have to compete with a new batch of players gunning for their spot every year, and the talent pool will just get deeper if everybody has the same benefits/access.  So maybe I don't see these advances enabling players to play at the top level longer.

Interesting things to speculate about though.

[bdm860]

Another interesting thing to think about is league wide scoring.  Over the years it seems to go through cycles of peaks and valleys.  Scoring has been going up recently, but will that trend continue?

If NBA scoring keeps going up, obviously better chance of seeing records broken.  But if it dips back down to where the NBA was 10-20 years ago, it will be harder.  The era you play in really matters with these things.  LeBron's end of career is probably benefiting from an uptick in scoring, but he was probably held back for the first 12 or so years, at least compared to other all time greats.  Kobe looks even better now considering his era.






The way things are going, with the NBA greatly favoring the offense player, I would guess scoring keeps ticking up.  But maybe the NBA finally comes to it's senses of and pulls on the reins a little.  Personally I'd love to see fewer fouls called, which would likely lean to a decline in scoring (but hopefully smoother, less drawn out games).

[celticsclay]

Yea, we won't know which guy is more durable until about ten years from now, but I do think we are seeing a bunch of things that will lengthen the career of the elite players if they want to. Better medical care, a more spread out schedule, less back to backs, better nutrition, better amenities for flights and hotels. Its come a long way from players operating as Taxi drivers in the offseason. I think we will see someone playing till 45 in the next 20 years if somebody wants to (it very well could be Lebron himself). Vince Carter turned 43 today and is playing 15 minutes a game right now and he spent the first half of his career in a league that was not set up for longevity like it is now (all the above mentioned differences). Would he have played even longer if he had those advantages his whole career?

I got to wonder if it cuts both ways though.  Better science/nutrition/amenities/rest today than 20+ years ago when you had guys playing 4 games in 5 nights, flying commercial and taking buses, when averaging 40+ mpg was normal.  So ya you'd think guys should be healthier and more rested now leading to longer careers.

But back then, basketball also wasn't a full time job since elementary school.  A lot of kids that show talent are pushed to specialize early and focus only on basketball 365 days a year.  If you read either of the David Esptein books, "The Sports Gene" and "Range" (both fascinating books I would recommend reading), he talks the many scientific studies that show how ineffective and unhealthy early specialization is.  Things like playing 1 sport all year every year can give you knees of a 60 year old at age 20, where if you played basketball for 3 months, then baseball for 3 months, then soccer for 3 months, your body would be stronger and not as worn down despite still playing sports all year.  So is it that early, exclusive focus on basketball that's causing a rise in things like ACL tears?  Is guys coming into the league younger, also negatively impacting their bodies?

Also, those same things that benefit players at 40-45, will also benefit all the younger players they're competing with.  So players may be healthier at 45, but they'll still have to compete with a new batch of players gunning for their spot every year, and the talent pool will just get deeper if everybody has the same benefits/access.  So maybe I don't see these advances enabling players to play at the top level longer.

Interesting things to speculate about though.

I agree with this, and I am talking about a really specific group of people that it benefits, which are players that are the absolutely superstars of the game and are able to perform at a high level if they can stay on field. Though it is football, someone like Tom Brady is a really good example of this. He can still make the passes at 43, but if the rules had not changed to stop hits to the head hits to the knees, there is no way he could take the hits at his age (he gets moderately injured each year even though he barely gets hit). Somebody like Montana could still make the throws at 38 but there is no way he was going to be able to keep taking the hits the old rules allowed at his age. It is obviously a different situation in football, but i do think the changes in schedule, training and medical recovery do allow players like Lebron or Giannis to not get forced off the court from injuries to the degree guys would have 10, 20 or 30 years ago.

[celticsclay]

Also, as though it is not as big a difference in football, the physicality is way less than what it was at times in the past. I mean don't people think this increases the chance of playing in their 40's that this is not happening.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/540874-hard-knock-life-the-nbas-top-10-hardest-fouls-of-all-time#slide2