Author Topic: NBA Season 2022-23  (Read 286069 times)

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Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3930 on: June 07, 2023, 11:44:48 PM »

Offline Goldstar88

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Not a very long list. I’d say this doesn’t bode well..

Damian Lillard games played over the last 4 seasons:

2019 season: 66 games

2020 season: 67 games

2021 season: 29 games

2022 season: 58 games

Seems like the wheels are already starting to fall off. If he was 30 instead of turning 33 next month, I’d consider it. Pass for me.
Sure his games need to be managed, but he just had the highest TS% of his career at 64.5% while taking BY FAR the most 3 pointers AND FT's in his career.  He also blew past his career high in ppg while still being above his career averages for rpg and apg.  In other words, he just had the best season of his career.  Yeah, he might miss a few more games than Brown, but Brown hasn't exactly been a picture of health either (in 19 and 20 Lillard played more games than Brown in each season and Brown only had 9 more games than Lillard did this year).  Of course the difference is, Lillard impacts his team on the scoreboard far more than Brown does (this year Lillard's on/off differential per 100 possessions was +12.8, while Brown was -3.8 ).  Lillard has in fact never had a negative differential in the regular season, while Brown has been negative 4 of his 7 seasons.

So in sum, Lillard is significantly better and more impactful than Brown and for a team that is close to the title (i.e. Finals last year, Conf. Finals this year), even a slight improvement could be the difference between winning and losing a title.  And I contend Lillard is a lot more than just a slight improvement.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Damian Lillard (when able to play) is currently a better talent than Jaylen Brown. Again, My concern is his age, durability and having a very limited window to contend with him on the team. Dame is also going to be making on average $60M/year while in his mid to late 30’s, so if the wheels do fall off when he’s say 34/35, the C’s will be completely handcuffed. I’m not opposed to moving Brown, but I’d rather bring in Beal who is 29(soon to to be 30) or KAT who is 27 (will be turning 28 later this year).
No concern with Brown’s durability nor impending $60m salary?

Brown will be 26 when next season starts. Dame will be 33.
Doesn’t really address my question. Brown is significantly worse and has durability concerns too.

I would be more confident in a 26 year olds body holding up vs a 33 year old.
Okay. So you’d be comfortable with the talent disparity at the same wage?

Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?
« Last Edit: June 08, 2023, 12:09:35 AM by Goldstar88 »
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At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3931 on: June 08, 2023, 12:01:12 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Gouki this is an interesting topic. I do think the notable exceptions the last few years (Lebron, curry, Paul) has made us think players are playing effectively longer but in reality that is not the case. I believe on one of the playoff games they were seeing this was the youngest the league has ever been and explained the speed, pace and amount of movement has really hurt veterans. For the examples of those effective old players there are plenty of counter examples like wall, Kemba Walker, rondo, Conley, IT, tony Parker, Derrick rose, Kyle Lowry. I get that a lot of these guys had injuries by they are the majority of small point guards from the last 10-12 years. Almost all of them fell off a cliff by the time they were 33-34 if they were even still in the league. Paul is definitely an exception for small guards (and even he has gotten injured almost every post season).

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3932 on: June 08, 2023, 01:08:08 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Not a very long list. I’d say this doesn’t bode well..

Damian Lillard games played over the last 4 seasons:

2019 season: 66 games

2020 season: 67 games

2021 season: 29 games

2022 season: 58 games

Seems like the wheels are already starting to fall off. If he was 30 instead of turning 33 next month, I’d consider it. Pass for me.
Sure his games need to be managed, but he just had the highest TS% of his career at 64.5% while taking BY FAR the most 3 pointers AND FT's in his career.  He also blew past his career high in ppg while still being above his career averages for rpg and apg.  In other words, he just had the best season of his career.  Yeah, he might miss a few more games than Brown, but Brown hasn't exactly been a picture of health either (in 19 and 20 Lillard played more games than Brown in each season and Brown only had 9 more games than Lillard did this year).  Of course the difference is, Lillard impacts his team on the scoreboard far more than Brown does (this year Lillard's on/off differential per 100 possessions was +12.8, while Brown was -3.8 ).  Lillard has in fact never had a negative differential in the regular season, while Brown has been negative 4 of his 7 seasons.

So in sum, Lillard is significantly better and more impactful than Brown and for a team that is close to the title (i.e. Finals last year, Conf. Finals this year), even a slight improvement could be the difference between winning and losing a title.  And I contend Lillard is a lot more than just a slight improvement.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Damian Lillard (when able to play) is currently a better talent than Jaylen Brown. Again, My concern is his age, durability and having a very limited window to contend with him on the team. Dame is also going to be making on average $60M/year while in his mid to late 30’s, so if the wheels do fall off when he’s say 34/35, the C’s will be completely handcuffed. I’m not opposed to moving Brown, but I’d rather bring in Beal who is 29(soon to to be 30) or KAT who is 27 (will be turning 28 later this year).
No concern with Brown’s durability nor impending $60m salary?

Brown will be 26 when next season starts. Dame will be 33.
Doesn’t really address my question. Brown is significantly worse and has durability concerns too.

I would be more confident in a 26 year olds body holding up vs a 33 year old.
Okay. So you’d be comfortable with the talent disparity at the same wage?

Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?
More than likely? I’m not so sure. You keep harping on about this 2 year window as if it’s an absolute, which I do not agree with.

I also think the 2 year window with Dame = a higher chance of a banner than the 5 year window with Brown.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3933 on: June 08, 2023, 01:13:27 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Gouki this is an interesting topic. I do think the notable exceptions the last few years (Lebron, curry, Paul) has made us think players are playing effectively longer but in reality that is not the case. I believe on one of the playoff games they were seeing this was the youngest the league has ever been and explained the speed, pace and amount of movement has really hurt veterans. For the examples of those effective old players there are plenty of counter examples like wall, Kemba Walker, rondo, Conley, IT, tony Parker, Derrick rose, Kyle Lowry. I get that a lot of these guys had injuries by they are the majority of small point guards from the last 10-12 years. Almost all of them fell off a cliff by the time they were 33-34 if they were even still in the league. Paul is definitely an exception for small guards (and even he has gotten injured almost every post season).
I don’t know that examples like IT, Kemba & Rose are comparable due to their injuries. The former two went from All-Star calibre to unplayable within month. Rose had a bit of a resurgence, but has faded.

None of those guys you mentioned have ever been as good as Dame (barring young Rose). Rondo was maybe similar insofar as being a top 3-5 PG in the comp, but he was not the same level.

So my point is also that Dame falling off will still leave him as an All-Star level player. I think he has 2 seasons of All-NBA level play left, followed by 2-3 of All-Star level play. I think that gamble is worth it.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3934 on: June 08, 2023, 02:15:14 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Gouki this is an interesting topic. I do think the notable exceptions the last few years (Lebron, curry, Paul) has made us think players are playing effectively longer but in reality that is not the case. I believe on one of the playoff games they were seeing this was the youngest the league has ever been and explained the speed, pace and amount of movement has really hurt veterans. For the examples of those effective old players there are plenty of counter examples like wall, Kemba Walker, rondo, Conley, IT, tony Parker, Derrick rose, Kyle Lowry. I get that a lot of these guys had injuries by they are the majority of small point guards from the last 10-12 years. Almost all of them fell off a cliff by the time they were 33-34 if they were even still in the league. Paul is definitely an exception for small guards (and even he has gotten injured almost every post season).
I don’t know that examples like IT, Kemba & Rose are comparable due to their injuries. The former two went from All-Star calibre to unplayable within month. Rose had a bit of a resurgence, but has faded.

None of those guys you mentioned have ever been as good as Dame (barring young Rose). Rondo was maybe similar insofar as being a top 3-5 PG in the comp, but he was not the same level.

So my point is also that Dame falling off will still leave him as an All-Star level player. I think he has 2 seasons of All-NBA level play left, followed by 2-3 of All-Star level play. I think that gamble is worth it.

I don’t think it’s an easy call.  If a 5-year window was likely, I’d be all in but I doubt 5 years is near even money.

Celtics recent history pulled Pierce, KG, RA together at 30, 31, & 32 respectively.  It’s hard to say exactly what their total true window was at that point - but you could argue 4 minimum and 6 maximum where they could have been contenders.  I think in retrospect anyone would be happy with that window.   Of course the main difference is Tatum at 25 v. Pierce at 30.   But if you believe Dame gets you a 5-year window I think you make a JB trade every day.  Even if you think JB will surpass Lilliard as a player in that timeframe the fit looks better for Boston.   

But… 5-year window seems a stretch.  Could very well be 2.   At 2, the trade is significantly less appealing since 2 doesn’t mean 2 championships. 

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3935 on: June 08, 2023, 07:04:58 AM »

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3936 on: June 08, 2023, 08:04:44 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.
I said it earlier, Dame just had his best and most efficient season ever.  He hasn't started to drop off yet. Even if he begins the downslope this season, barring major injury it is generally a 3 to 5 year process for players. 

Anyone that wants to keep Brown just doesn't want to win a title because he quite simply isn't good enough next to Tatum for Boston to win.  If the Miami series didn't crystallize this, nothing will.
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Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3937 on: June 08, 2023, 08:47:47 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.
Agree!
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3938 on: June 08, 2023, 09:32:07 AM »

Offline Goldstar88

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.

You think that a 35 year old Lillard is going to be a better two way player than a 28 year old Jaylen Brown. Going to have to disagree. Dames defense isn’t great now, being a small guard. He loses a step and it’s going to go from mediocre to poor.
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
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At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3939 on: June 08, 2023, 10:10:43 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.

You think that a 35 year old Lillard is going to be a better two way player than a 28 year old Jaylen Brown. Going to have to disagree. Dames defense isn’t great now, being a small guard. He loses a step and it’s going to go from mediocre to poor.

You're right about his defense, which has always been a disappointment.  He's probably average height for a point guard (6'2"), but he's got a long wingspan (6'8").  He should have been an above-average defensive player, but he spends all of his energy on offense.

It's possible to thrive with a guy like that, but I have no idea what he'll look like in two or three years.


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Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3940 on: June 08, 2023, 10:17:45 AM »

Offline Who

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Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Probably about the same level.

Even with Dame falling off from top 10 to All-Star level, probably about the same level.

You think that a 35 year old Lillard is going to be a better two way player than a 28 year old Jaylen Brown. Going to have to disagree. Dames defense isn’t great now, being a small guard. He loses a step and it’s going to go from mediocre to poor.

You're right about his defense, which has always been a disappointment.  He's probably average height for a point guard (6'2"), but he's got a long wingspan (6'8").  He should have been an above-average defensive player, but he spends all of his energy on offense.

It's possible to thrive with a guy like that, but I have no idea what he'll look like in two or three years.

Lillard is such an amazing shooter. He is a major advantage in aging well. I'd be more concerned if he was a slashing guard like Westbrook or Morant. Dodgy shooters. Being able to play a more perimeter orienated / finesse game is a key component to aging well.

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3941 on: June 08, 2023, 06:16:16 PM »

Offline cman88

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https://theathletic.com/4593605/2023/06/08/khris-middleton-surgery-bucks/

so, Khris Middleton had knee surgery....he already looks like he lost a step last year. Not sure how he will be with another knee surgery

for all the consternation here about running it back with a 26 year old tatum and 27 year old brown.....The bucks are kind of at a turning point. Looking like an old team with not much room to improve. and possibly losing lopez

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3942 on: June 08, 2023, 06:40:23 PM »

Offline cman88

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Damian Lillard on future in Portland: If we don't use our assets to build a competitive team, a separate conversation will need to be had

Clutch Points: “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland… We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. If we can’t do that… then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have” Damian Lillard on the Blazers’ future (via @SHOsports)


Report also came out recently that they consider sharpe untouchable. Lilliard trade actually seems possible now

I’d give him a 2 year window before his game starts dropping off. Small guards don’t age well and he’s going to be 33 next month. Portland would be wise to move on at this point.
Like how Curry has dropped off? Chris Paul at 35 still had two All-Star seasons left. Nash had 3 good years post-35.

Not a very long list. I’d say this doesn’t bode well..

Damian Lillard games played over the last 4 seasons:

2019 season: 66 games

2020 season: 67 games

2021 season: 29 games

2022 season: 58 games

Seems like the wheels are already starting to fall off. If he was 30 instead of turning 33 next month, I’d consider it. Pass for me.
Sure his games need to be managed, but he just had the highest TS% of his career at 64.5% while taking BY FAR the most 3 pointers AND FT's in his career.  He also blew past his career high in ppg while still being above his career averages for rpg and apg.  In other words, he just had the best season of his career.  Yeah, he might miss a few more games than Brown, but Brown hasn't exactly been a picture of health either (in 19 and 20 Lillard played more games than Brown in each season and Brown only had 9 more games than Lillard did this year).  Of course the difference is, Lillard impacts his team on the scoreboard far more than Brown does (this year Lillard's on/off differential per 100 possessions was +12.8, while Brown was -3.8 ).  Lillard has in fact never had a negative differential in the regular season, while Brown has been negative 4 of his 7 seasons.

So in sum, Lillard is significantly better and more impactful than Brown and for a team that is close to the title (i.e. Finals last year, Conf. Finals this year), even a slight improvement could be the difference between winning and losing a title.  And I contend Lillard is a lot more than just a slight improvement.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Damian Lillard (when able to play) is currently a better talent than Jaylen Brown. Again, My concern is his age, durability and having a very limited window to contend with him on the team. Dame is also going to be making on average $60M/year while in his mid to late 30’s, so if the wheels do fall off when he’s say 34/35, the C’s will be completely handcuffed. I’m not opposed to moving Brown, but I’d rather bring in Beal who is 29(soon to to be 30) or KAT who is 27 (will be turning 28 later this year).
No concern with Brown’s durability nor impending $60m salary?

Brown will be 26 when next season starts. Dame will be 33.
Doesn’t really address my question. Brown is significantly worse and has durability concerns too.

I would be more confident in a 26 year olds body holding up vs a 33 year old.
Okay. So you’d be comfortable with the talent disparity at the same wage?

Dame more than likely will not be worth his contract after two more seasons. JB will be in his prime throughout the entirety of his. So a likely 2 year window to contend vs a 5+ year window. That’s an easy decision to make. Who do you think will be a better overall player in 2 years… JB at 28 years old or Dame at 35?

Yeah, i'm not trading prime Jaylen years for an undersized point guard in his 30's...

something interesting brought up on toucher and rich this morning i think summed it up. the Celtics don't have a "talent" problem. They have a mental problem. On paper this is one of the most talented teams in the league top to bottom. They just don't play like it consistently. Historically in the NBA guys haven't won until they reach 27-28. Lebron, Curry, Jordan, Giannis (was just shy of 27), Pierce/KG were even older. look at Jocic is 28 and his knock until this year was he couldnt carry his team in the playoffs

I think because of all the "success" we have had the past few years we lose sight of that fact that they still "technically" are young players who are not yet in their prime. And how quickly the narrative can change in the NBA. I remember when Lebron was viewed as a "choker" who couldn't get it done or get past the Celtics. Then he ended up in the finals almost every year. Heck thats the narrative Jocic carried until this year.

Its why as unpopular as it may be to some on this board who want widespread changes that I think Brad is comfortable riding with this group for another couple years at least. id rather him be wrong than trade Brown away and he hits his prime and goes to another level with another team while we are stuck with Lillard on the decline on a big contract we cant get out of...

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3943 on: June 08, 2023, 07:15:31 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Per Haynes, this is all a fantasy anyways, as Dame reportedly wouldn’t accept a trade to Boston.

https://twitter.com/thenbacentral/status/1666931292162727936?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Find this hard to believe. I can see him stating a preference for Miami or Brooklyn due to friends being there, but what would the rationale be for not wanting Boston given our situation? Or is this more of the IT injury narrative non-sense?

(Not that we’re trading for him anyways, but still I find this strange. Also, Haynes was wrong just yesterday about the CP3 report, so perhaps his credibility is waning.)

Re: NBA Season 2022-23
« Reply #3944 on: June 08, 2023, 07:26:05 PM »

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I never know what age these guys are.

Jaylen will turn 27 in a couple of months just before start of next season. So this is his prime.

Tatum is still only 25. Just turned 25 a few months ago.