2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction

[TwinTower14]

Shields isn't signing for 4 years, $70m.  He will get at least $20 million per year for 4, and maybe 5, years.

I agree with Roy - could be looking at 5/100, that means you are paying someone 20 million at 38....

[Rondo2287]

Shields isn't signing for 4 years, $70m.  He will get at least $20 million per year for 4, and maybe 5, years.

Agreed, I may not want to pay him 20 mill cause of his work in the playoffs, but his career body of work has earned him that level I think, based on the current market. 

Im happy with the rotation as it stands now

[Tr1boy]

Shields isn't signing for 4 years, $70m.  He will get at least $20 million per year for 4, and maybe 5, years.

I would be surprised if he gets that from the Redsox. He averages 14 wins and 9 losses per season.  That is not ace material.   If the redsox need to pay him 20 million for the sake of getting another starting pitcher/just for the sake of trying to makeup for the loss of Lester, than that will be dumb imo

Porcello will prob do 14-8  this season for us. Then what, he also get 20 million a season?

[Donoghus]

I'm not really enamored with overpaying Shields.  I agree with the notion that he's not exactly an ace. 

One thing I do like about him is that he is an absolute innings eater.  Great to have a guy like that in the rotation.  I just don't want the Sox going crazy by overpaying the guy.  He'll also be 33 on opening day.

Someone is going to overpay for the guy, though.

[kozlodoev]

Shields isn't signing for 4 years, $70m.  He will get at least $20 million per year for 4, and maybe 5, years.

I would be surprised if he gets that from the Redsox. He averages 14 wins and 9 losses per season.  That is not ace material.   If the redsox need to pay him 20 million for the sake of getting another starting pitcher/just for the sake of trying to makeup for the loss of Lester, than that will be dumb imo

Porcello will prob do 14-8  this season for us. Then what, he also get 20 million a season?

But somehow Lester, who averages 16 and 9, got a $135 million dollar offer? Even if you consider the fact that organization is familiar with Lester, it still indicates that 4 and $80 million is pretty much the starting point for Shields.

[kozlodoev]

I'm not really enamored with overpaying Shields.  I agree with the notion that he's not exactly an ace.

I'm not sure what's scarier, paying Shields or having Buch or Porcello start on opening day...

[Donoghus]

I'm not really enamored with overpaying Shields.  I agree with the notion that he's not exactly an ace.

I'm not sure what's scarier, paying Shields or having Buch or Porcello start on opening day...

Buch start on opening day..... I think.

[jambr380]

I'm not really enamored with overpaying Shields.  I agree with the notion that he's not exactly an ace.

I'm not sure what's scarier, paying Shields or having Buch or Porcello start on opening day...

Buch start on opening day..... I think.

If we just pretend that 2014 didn't happen, then it is much more palatable. Although he was injured for much of 2013, he was so ridiculously good (1.74 ERA!). He is the definition of falling off a cliff. Perhaps he can muster a decent comeback.

I actually am liking the rotation a lot more. Porcello, Miley, and even Masterson are massive upgrades to what we could have potentially put out there. The offense should be ridiculous.

[TwinTower14]

no offense but measuring a pitcher on wins and loses is a pretty old way to measure success. 

He may not be an ACE but he is pretty close - 200 innings every year since 2007, his ERA the last four season: 2.82, 3.52, 3.15 and 3.21. 

His WHIP always hoovers around 1.2 and he doesn't walk guys.  He also has done this all in the American League against the DH. 

[TwinTower14]

I'm not really enamored with overpaying Shields.  I agree with the notion that he's not exactly an ace.

I'm not sure what's scarier, paying Shields or having Buch or Porcello start on opening day...

Buch start on opening day..... I think.

If we just pretend that 2014 didn't happen, then it is much more palatable. Although he was injured for much of 2013, he was so ridiculously good (1.74 ERA!). He is the definition of falling off a cliff. Perhaps he can muster a decent comeback.

I actually am liking the rotation a lot more. Porcello, Miley, and even Masterson are massive upgrades to what we could have potentially put out there. The offense should be ridiculous.

I am with you, Porcello is a good pitcher.  Go look at his stats from last year and compare them when Jon Lester was 25?  They are basically identical, I think they are getting him at the right time.  He doesn't strike guys out but he throws a heavy ball and with the infield D the sox have, he should have some success...

[Tr1boy]

Shields isn't signing for 4 years, $70m.  He will get at least $20 million per year for 4, and maybe 5, years.

I would be surprised if he gets that from the Redsox. He averages 14 wins and 9 losses per season.  That is not ace material.   If the redsox need to pay him 20 million for the sake of getting another starting pitcher/just for the sake of trying to makeup for the loss of Lester, than that will be dumb imo

Porcello will prob do 14-8  this season for us. Then what, he also get 20 million a season?

But somehow Lester, who averages 16 and 9, got a $135 million dollar offer? Even if you consider the fact that organization is familiar with Lester, it still indicates that 4 and $80 million is pretty much the starting point for Shields.

Has  Shield ever won 17, 18 games before?? Lester has. Lester is also a big game pitcher.  He is ace material

You don't pay/offer a younger Lester approx 23 million a season then go sign Shields for 20 for 4 years. That retarded.

And Shields will turn 33. 

I guess if Shields wants to come, he will need to sign a fair deal (15-17 million a season).  If he wants to sign 20 and play for a crappy team, then thats up to him

[Tr1boy]

no offense but measuring a pitcher on wins and loses is a pretty old way to measure success. 

He may not be an ACE but he is pretty close - 200 innings every year since 2007, his ERA the last four season: 2.82, 3.52, 3.15 and 3.21. 

His WHIP always hoovers around 1.2 and he doesn't walk guys.  He also has done this all in the American League against the DH.

While this is all true, he is not ace material. Since when do you pay 20 million plus for a #2 ish, #3 guy?

Lester after a 2 or 3 game losing streak can come in and end it for you. Almost single-handedly. Shields is not that kind of pitcher

[Donoghus]

no offense but measuring a pitcher on wins and loses is a pretty old way to measure success. 

He may not be an ACE but he is pretty close - 200 innings every year since 2007, his ERA the last four season: 2.82, 3.52, 3.15 and 3.21. 

His WHIP always hoovers around 1.2 and he doesn't walk guys.  He also has done this all in the American League against the DH.

I would agree on the measurement thing.  Wins & losses is a pretty archaic measurement of a pitcher's worth. 

My qualm is the cost.  I don't think Shields is worth what I think he's going to get paid.  And at his age, I do expect a regression to start happening soon.  Especially when you consider that he's close to 2000 IP in his career between regular & post seasons and almost 33.

[Roy H.]

Has  Shield ever won 17, 18 games before?? Lester has.

Lester has won more than 16 games once, in 2010.  Since then, he's won 15, 9, 15, 16.  Shields has won 58 games over the same time frame, or three more than Lester.

Shields also has a career 3.72 ERA.  Lester is at 3.58. 

The only major difference between the two is in terms of playoff performance, where Lester has been great and Shields has been poor.  That's important, but I'm not sure that it's so important to make Lester $8 - $10 million better per year.

[Tr1boy]

Has  Shield ever won 17, 18 games before?? Lester has.

Lester has won more than 16 games once, in 2010.  Since then, he's won 15, 9, 15, 16.  Shields has won 58 games over the same time frame, or three more than Lester.

Shields also has a career 3.72 ERA.  Lester is at 3.58. 

The only major difference between the two is in terms of playoff performance, where Lester has been great and Shields has been poor.  That's important, but I'm not sure that it's so important to make Lester $8 - $10 million better per year.

What about Lesters ability to stop a losing streak almost single handedly also?

Also you can't really consider his true W-L 2 out of the last 3 season with the way last place, first place, last place redsox have been playing