CB Draft Western Finals: (1) Mavericks vs. (2) Blazers

[Roy H.]

Lineups:

CrotoNats ReUnited (Coach - L. Bird / F. Vogel)

A. Varejao / R. Lopez / J. Anthony
Lebron / E. Brand
J. Green / M. Dunleavy / L. Kleiza
T. Sefolosha / B. Gordon
K. Irving / A. Brooks / K. Dooling

Portland Trailblazers:

Ricky Rubio, Beno Udrih, Brandon Knight
Joe Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Brandon Knight
Small Forward: Wilson Chandler, Matt Barnes, Joe Johnson, Marco Belinelli
Power Forward: Paul Millsap, Matt Bonner, Wilson Chandler
Center: Dwight Howard, Chuck Hayes

[jgod213]

[Roy H.]

Once again, I doubt either Edgar or I will have a lot of time to devote to this series due to time commitments.  We'll give our quick thoughts, and will try to answer any questions later.

This series, realistically, comes down to who can limit the other team's superstar more.  There are a ton of good players here, but realistically, it's Lebron vs. Dwight.

Defending Dwight: 

We feel like we can limit Dwight.  We'll be throwing both Brand and Varejao at him.  Why Brand?  In the four most recent Brand vs. Howard matchups, Howard is shooting 40.6%.  In only one of those games did he shoot 50%.  Howard is averaging 18.25 points per game, but he's struggling to do it.

Is this a fluke?  No, for anybody who has been paying attention to Elton Brand.  The guy is an excellent defender, with a 7'5" wingspan.  For Celtics fans who didn't see Brand play a lot, here are some articles talking about his defense:

Whereas Garnett started with every physical tool possible to go with his intellect, Brand is a more unlikely defensive success story. Few big men listed at 6-9, 254 qualify as elite defenders, but Brand has taken to his role as an interior anchor under Doug Collins. As Tom Haberstroh noted for ESPN Insider a few weeks ago, Brand meets every criteria for Defensive Player of the Year. He plays for an elite defense and his Synergy numbers are outstanding (at 0.67 points per possession to roll men, he's second to Garnett, and he was second among the big men I looked at with 0.59 points allowed per post-up). Brand is a little behind Garnett in box-score defensive stats and RAPM value, but the gap between the two is narrow.

Yet with seven games left in the season, it would take a catastrophe to move Brand off the top of the charts of a handful of advanced metrics that measure defense. Notably, Brand is ninth in defensive win shares, which measures the number of wins a player contributes with his defense.

More impressive, Brand is third overall in the NBA in defensive rating behind only Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard. Perhaps a more subjective statistic than win shares, defensive rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. In that category Brand’s 94.8 is slightly behind Howard at 94.7 and Garnett at 94.3.

That's right, Brand's defense compared favorably to KG's and D12's.  Brand ranked 14th in the entire NBA in post-up defense, and 9th overall in defending the pick-and-roll. 

Of course, Brand isn't our only guy who will be defending Dwight.  We've got Varejao, a very good defender.  The one time they matched up last year, Varejao held Howard to 5-of-12 shooting. For his career, Varejao has held Howard to 16.6 points per game.

Then, there's the deeper bench.  Robin Lopez is a legit 7-footer, and Joel Anthony plays tough defense.  Since 2010, Howard has averaged 16.9 points in games Anthony plays in.  Not bad for a Miami team "without a center".

Nobody Is Stopping Lebron

Dwight Howard is an excellent defender.  That doesn't mean he can defend Lebron.  Lebron and D12 have matched up in six games in the playoffs.  Lebron averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks.  The regular season isn't much different; Lebron is averaging 27/8/7 against Dwight.

In other words, Lebron is going to get his.  He's going to put Howard into foul trouble, too.  In those playoffs matchups, Howard is averaging 5.3 personal fouls per game.  Who is going to back up Howard when he's sitting on the pine?  The 6'6" Chuck Hayes, who averaged 3 points and 4 rebounds last year?

Then, there's Paul Milsap, who will be called upon to defend Lebron as his primary defensive assignment. 

Injuries Matter:

Howard has a bad back, and is going to miss the start of the season.  Ricky Rubio tore up his knee, and hasn't even been cleared to start running yet.  It's fair to project that both players are going to lose a lot of their athleticism, especially in their first year back from injury.

Dallas Is Much More Efficient:

Here are the eFG% / TS% of Dallas' top-eight:

Lebron .554 / .605
Irving .517 / .566
Green .505 / .553
Sefolosha  .532 / .584
Varejao .514 / .542
Gordon .501 / .549
Dunleavy .557 / .597
Brand:  .494 / .521

Compare that to Portland's:

Dwight Howard: .573 / .569
Ricky Rubio:  .398 / .476
Joe Johnson: .521 / .557
Wilson Chandler: .411 / .445
Paul Millsap:  .499 / .545
Beno Udrih: .465 / .488
Chuck Hayes: .429 / .459

That's a huge, huge disparity in shooting and efficiency.

Overall, Why Dallas Wins:

Dallas is the most versatile team in the league.  We can play a defense-first lineup, with Varejao/Brand/Lebron/Thabo (all top-notch defenders).  We can go all-offense, with Brand/Lebron/Green or Dunleavy/Gordon/Irving. 

The Mavs (CrotoNats) have better shooting, better overall size, and a more cohesive team unit that fits together.  Unlike the Blazers, their players aren't dealing with long-term injuries.  They've got the perfect complement to Lebron in Kyrie Irving, who is the best rookie PG since Chris Paul.  They've got the best perimeter defender in the world in Thabo Sefolosha, and an elite post defender in Elton Brand.  Lastly, they have the best PF (and SF) on earth, in Lebron James.  Lebron isn't going to be stopped.

[Roy H.]

[ronaldo943]

i really think Portland has a chance to win this.

[StartOrien]

i really think Portland has a chance to win this.

ill hear their argument out, but as of now id say I completely disagree

[Roy H.]

i really think Portland has a chance to win this.

What are your concerns?

Arguably, outside of Lebron, Portland has the bigger "names".  They do not have the better players, though.  Dallas has a better team defense, and they have a better and much more efficient offense.

Dwight Howard averages 19.9 points per game in the playoffs for his career.  That's solid, but not dominant.  Plus, that was before back surgery.  He can and will be limited, especially when playing against Brand and Varejao.

Dwight Howard isn't on Lebron's level; it's not even close.

[Who]

Tough matchups for Ben Gordon with big wings like Joe Johnson and Wilson Chandler.

I think Dallas is going to need to stay big on the wings for large parts of this series. Tough to play Ben Gordon against either of those guys. Ben Gordon will do very well against Belinelli and/or Udrih though. 

[Fafnir]

Dwight Howard averages 19.9 points per game in the playoffs for his career.  That's solid, but not dominant.  Plus, that was before back surgery.  He can and will be limited, especially when playing against Brand and Varejao.

20 PPG on plus .600 TS% is nothing to sneeze at.

Especially when you consider that he's the best defensive player in the league and the second or third best guy at creating a board advantage for his teams. (despite playing with Rashard Lewis as a "PF" for much of his career)

Howards not a closer by scoring the danger he creates is how he closes out the game on the other end by forcing tough shots and securing the rebound.

[Fafnir]

i really think Portland has a chance to win this.

ill hear their argument out, but as of now id say I completely disagree

Dwight Howard with a solid supporting cast always has a chance to win any series, just like LeBron.

I'm trying to think back to the 2008-2009 ECF for this match up to provide some real life context in my head.

Though the committment to having LBJ at the PF spot scrambles that somewhat. (though like the Magic 4 in 1 out teams teams will just put their lesser forward match up wise on Thabo/Green, like teams did with Shard)

A lot to think about.

[Roy H.]

Dwight Howard averages 19.9 points per game in the playoffs for his career.  That's solid, but not dominant.  Plus, that was before back surgery.  He can and will be limited, especially when playing against Brand and Varejao.

20 PPG on plus .600 TS% is nothing to sneeze at.

Especially when you consider that he's the best defensive player in the league and the second or third best guy at creating a board advantage for his teams. (despite playing with Rashard Lewis as a "PF" for much of his career)

Howards not a closer by scoring the danger he creates is how he closes out the game on the other end by forcing tough shots and securing the rebound.

The point is that offensively, he can be limited.  He's not going to take over a game like a Lebron is.

In terms of Howard's defense, he's shown absolutely no ability to stop Lebron from doing what he wants to.  He'll presumably be covering Brand, who can take him outside.  Lebron and Irving will alternate taking the ball to the hoop and/or taking efficient jump shots.

Expect Howard to be in foul trouble early and often.  There's no way that Milsap can guard Bron on the perimeter, meaning that Portland is either going to be giving up open looks, or will be letting Lebron into the lane with a full head of steam.  Neither is a good option.

[Who]

I think Dallas are better off using Brand as their primary option against Dwight Howard.

Varejao gets overpowered too easily by Howard plus is very limited offensively allowing Dwight Howard to roam as much as he pleases defensively. Brand puts up a better fight defensively against Dwight plus brings a strong mid-range game offensively that can punish some of Dwight's help defense..

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I like this matchup. This is a very interesting series and I'm having a hard time deciding, i need to look at both arguments. But I'm leaning toward Mavs for the moment.

[Roy H.]

I'm trying to think back to the 2008-2009 ECF for this match up to provide some real life context in my head.

2012 Lebron >> 2009 Lebron.  That said, even 2009 Lebron averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists against Howard.  D12 can't protect the rim against Lebron, and again, that's a pre-injury Howard and a pre-2012 Lebron.

[Roy H.]

Also, if Portland is going to be gimmicky and try to argue that Millsap will defend Thabo on the perimeter (fantastic -- less rebounding), let's look at the Lebron vs. Chandler matchup.

Lebron:  32.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 52.7% FG%, 40.6% 3PT%, 10 wins, 1 loss
Chandler: 11.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 37.9% FG%, 29.3% 3PT%, 1 win, 10 losses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HjYgDlsxEE

Yeah, we're pretty happy with a Chandler / Lebron matchup.