2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[wdleehi]

Breaking down the divisions.

Atlantic:  I like the Knicks (solid across the board, plenty of defense and offense), then the Raptors (KG sucker), then the 76ers (if Bynum becomes consistant and not soft, jump to the top), Nets (Brand is big ?, need PG) and then Celtics.  Strongest in terms of 'win now'

Central:  Strong at the top.  Chicago and Detroit are two of the most complete teams.  Weak at the bottom.  Lots of holes.


Southeast:  You have the Magic.   Then everyone else at the bottom.  Hawks are to small and have the show pony (injured) and the A(llabout)I.  Bobcats could be interesting, but with only three players right now, who knows.  Boxers have some pieces.  Miami makes no sense.


Northwest:  Duncan ownes the division, even though Seattle needs alot more size in the backcourt.  Portland will win a lot of games.  But come playoffs, will there be enough of an inside threat and will Manu be healthy enough to be their slasher?  (I will skip Denver since we all know I like them) Utah has three strong win now players, but to many holes right now.  T-wolves can run, but Lee as the only big man kills them right now.


Southwest: Weakest division at the top right now.  Rockets and
griz are in the best position to turn that around.  SA is young.  NO is Kobe's nightmare.  Dallas isn't going to stop anyone.

Pacific: Warriors and Braves make this another top heavy.  Suns are young, but playoff spot contender.  Kings need a strong PG.  LV is young.



based on current roster page.  One voters opinion.  

[indeedproceed]

One GM's opinion of the state of the League:

Well its the end of round 5. Your team should be really starting to take shape here. Some teams are finding where the bottom of the depth in the draft dropped out to be surprising, and some teams are satisfied with where they hedged their bets. Not many starters left, so lets see where the divisions sit.

Atlantic:
The four teams are remarkable in the Atlantic because they all have a glaring weakness to complement their equally shining strengths. This division is top heavy with 3 almost surefire playoff teams, but no one I like for a title.

Boston has probably close to the strongest team in the league in terms of overall talent, but at the same time they're going to be defensively over matched by quicker teams with explosive points and 3's. Barbosa leaves a lot to be desired as a man defender. Also, he's not much of a distributer, which will hurt a team that is going to need to rely on Dwanyne Wade for much of its ball handling duties. Wade is an MVP caliber player don't get me wrong, but having to pickup the slack for Barbosa is going to hurt his numbers and especially his efficiency. Nene and Birdman are a good front line, but Birdman is more of a supersub than a leading man. This team will score, score, score, but will it defend? Nene and Wade, as well as Andersen are solid, but Odom will be out of position, and Barbosa is below average.

Toronto is a team that is obviously trying to win now, but their questions are as much about "how much is left in the tank" as they are "will the car start?" Garnett, Camby, and Arenas combined played in less than 50% of their available games last year, and Garnett, Big Z, Camby, and Pierce are all steadily declining in terms of ability as they roll down the road to retirement. This team is build as a defensive powerhouse, and although they need to pickup a reliable starter at the 2, they're right up there in terms of talent. Between Artest, KG, Camby, and Big Z, there isn't really a team better equipped in the league defensively. However, that is a big *if* they're healthy.

The 76ers are the most complete and the most stable team in the division. They've got a starting 5 that is high on talent and no one is out of position. If Bynum is healthy and getting better as a player, if Baron Davis can manage to give a crap, if Carmelo can be consistent, then this team is my favorite in the division. That is too many if's though, and that is this team's problem.

New Jersey has a solid team, but its not 2004, so these guys are not the players they once were. Before Sheed signed with a team this year, he talked about a possible retirement. Elton Brand hasn't had a great season since he was robbed of the MVP in 2006, and Paul Pierce...well I'm not talking bad about Pierce in this house. Courtney Lee is a good young player that was probably taken too high due to a case of "Over-exposure-itis", but he's a credentialed starter in the NBA. The need for a point guard sets this team back considerably from the top three, because pg is one of the hardest spots to fill with a capable starter. At this point if they draft one instead of trading for one, they're gonna either get a one trick pony or a very old player.

The Knicks come in last because they don't have a power forward or a starting caliber 3. They're a fixer-upper with potential but they're out of the playoffs for now.

The Atlantic is a hard division to really make a clear prognostication on because of all the if's or hopefully's that these teams are relying on. Gun to my head (as in someone is pointing, not as in I'm holding), I'd say Toronto then Philly then Boston.

[Roy Hobbs]

OK, I split this off so we'd have a place to discuss our respective rosters, without it clogging up the draft thread. 

(Nice analysis, IP.)

[Roy Hobbs]

Sticking with the Atlantic for a moment, the teams look like:

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics (Jsaad)- Dwayne Wade, Lamar Odom, Nene, Antonio McDyess, Chris Anderson, Leandro Barbosa
New Jersey Nets (bdm860)- Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Courtney Lee
New York Knicks (LEAHYISGOD)- Deron Williams, Vince Carter, Kendrick Perkins, Marvin Williams, Nenad Krstic
Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer
Toronto Raptors (Rondo2287)-Kevin Garnett, Gilbert Arenas, Marcus Camby, Ron Artest, Aaron Brooks, Zydrunas Ilgauskas


Based upon that, I think I'd rank them:

1.  Philly.  I'm not sold on the Bynum / Okafor tandem, and they need some shooters.  However, they're the most complete team in the division thus far.

2.  Toronto.  There are a lot of combustible personalities on this roster, and it's pretty brittle, but the talent is undeniable.  I'd prefer to see Arenas moved for a more traditional point guard.

3a. Boston.  I love Wade, and offensively, Barbosa is a decent fit with him in the backcourt.  On the defensive end, it's another story.  I'm not in love with the front court; I think Odom, McDyess, and Andersen were all slight reaches, and Nene has only had one good season in his career.  Still, if this team drafts well, they could win the division (although I doubt they'll be a contender overall in the East.)

3b.  New York.  Until they get a power forward, I'm not sold on this team.  They have solid players at the two most important positions, but I'm not sold on Vince or Williams buying into a team game.

4.  New Jersey.  I loved the first two picks, despite Brand's injury issues.  However, I think the picks of Rasheed and Lee were reaches, which has left this team a bit handicapped.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

Sticking with the Atlantic for a moment, the teams look like:

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics (Jsaad)- Dwayne Wade, Lamar Odom, Nene, Antonio McDyess, Chris Anderson, Leandro Barbosa
New Jersey Nets (bdm860)- Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Courtney Lee
New York Knicks (LEAHYISGOD)- Deron Williams, Vince Carter, Kendrick Perkins, Marvin Williams, Nenad Krstic
Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer
Toronto Raptors (Rondo2287)-Kevin Garnett, Gilbert Arenas, Marcus Camby, Ron Artest, Aaron Brooks, Zydrunas Ilgauskas


Based upon that, I think I'd rank them:

1.  Philly.  I'm not sold on the Bynum / Okafor tandem, and they need some shooters.  However, they're the most complete team in the division thus far.

2.  Toronto.  There are a lot of combustible personalities on this roster, and it's pretty brittle, but the talent is undeniable.  I'd prefer to see Arenas moved for a more traditional point guard.

3a. Boston.  I love Wade, and offensively, Barbosa is a decent fit with him in the backcourt.  On the defensive end, it's another story.  I'm not in love with the front court; I think Odom, McDyess, and Andersen were all slight reaches, and Nene has only had one good season in his career.  Still, if this team drafts well, they could win the division (although I doubt they'll be a contender overall in the East.)

3b.  New York.  Until they get a power forward, I'm not sold on this team.  They have solid players at the two most important positions, but I'm not sold on Vince or Williams buying into a team game.

4.  New Jersey.  I loved the first two picks, despite Brand's injury issues.  However, I think the picks of Rasheed and Lee were reaches, which has left this team a bit handicapped.

I agree with most of it. I would probably rate New York a little higher, because I am expecting a big year from Marvin Williams this year. He's improved steadily during his time in the league, and this is a big jump year in my opinion for him. I'm interested to hear why you think Williams can't buy into a team game. Carter I understand perfectly though and agree with, but I think it's enough to put them past Boston. Would like that PF spot filled though. I have Boston definitely closer to the Nets then the Knicks. I see D-Wade in a situation very similar to his in Miami, having to be a number 1 surrounded by role guys and backups.

Toronto's roster is a dream come true for a defensive minded coach if they're healthy, but that's a major if. If they are all okay, they'd be my pick possibly to win the whole thing. A team with Artest, KG, and Camby? Toronto's practically daring people to drive the lane, which is good because Arenas will need that support even if healthy defensively. It's odd, because I think Philly is the best team in the division, but Toronto has a better chance to win the title if everyone's healthy.

I almost can't be objective about New Jersey, because I really HATE Elton Brand. Keep that in mind with my breakdown, because he's still a solid pick if he comes back healthy, I just personally don't like the way he screwed Baron Davis, one of my favorites, with the Clips. Pierce is getting older, as is Sheed, and I just don't believe Courtney Lee is good enough to pick up the difference. Also, no point guard is a major major issue at this point in time.

1. Philadelphia
2. Toronto
3. New York Knicks
4. Boston
5. New Jersey

[indeedproceed]

Central Division:

Weaker than the Atlantic by a strong margin I'd say. 2 strong teams, one average, and two upstarts that are probably a few years away.

Chicago: Chicago is easily the cream of the crop in the Central, and it starts with Chris Paul. Widely thought of to be the very best point guard in the NBA, Chris Peezy, while not only being a well above average scorer has nearly unmatched court vision. The phrase “he makes everyone around him better” gets thrown out there quite a bit, but it is true when it comes to Chris Paul. The rest of Chi-tizzle’s squad is pretty balanced. Whether its Rudy, Raja or Wilson who starts at the 2, they’re all adequate. Beyond them Tayshaun is the ultimate role player at small forward, and Al Horford and Pau Gasol make up one of the league’s better frontcourts. The biggest weakness is depth, but between 2 remaining 9th round picks, and a trade happy GM, they should be alright.

Detroit: This is a team full of great individual pieces that together don’t quite solve the puzzle, if you know what I mean. Mo Williams is overrated, but he is still a viable starting point guard. Amare Stoudamire is a one of those very good individual players who doesn’t seem like he’s a good team player. Gerald Wallace and Amare both have very valid and troubling injury histories. Rip Hamilton is a superb supporting cog, but I don’t even know if there are enough touches to go around to make him maximize his potential. Plus, he wears face masks, and you can’t trust a man in a mask. Samuel Dalembert I have huge reservations about even calling him a legit starting center, but next to Amare he shouldn’t need to score too much. Al Harrington is a versatile player that doesn’t seem to fit any one need perfectly, but fits many needs sub-parly. I like the pieces on a case by case perspective, but I don’t like what they add up to.

Cleveland: Devin Harris is a good player. So is Andrew Bogut. They’re both good on both ends of the floor too. David West is a decent scorer, average rebounder, and slightly below average defender. You have to think he’s one of those guys that Chris Paul just makes better by being around him. I don’t know if Cleveland will start Mike Miller or Jamal Crawford at the two, but they really need a legit, defensive oriented 3. Mike Miller+Jamal as the starting wings would be a disaster. This team could flirt with the playoffs, but I don’t think they’ve got it.

The Pacers and Bucks are both very young teams (excluding Shane Battier for the Pacers), and they’re both teams with huge gaping holes. The Pacers problems start at the point position, but they also need a decent center. The Bucks also lack a center, and I can’t say that I like Stuckey as their point. Both teams have very good building blocks in Durant and Millsap for the Bucks and Aldridge, Iggy, and Curry for the Pacers, but neither team will be any good for a good while.

My money goes: Chicago by a healthy margin, Detroit on the fringe of the playoffs or out, CLE at or around .500

[Lucky17]

My thoughts on the Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics (Jsaad)- Dwayne Wade, Lamar Odom, Nene, Antonio McDyess, Chris Anderson, Leandro Barbosa

Very good individual players, but do they mesh? Odom seems out of position here at SF. I'm not completely sold on the Barbosa-Wade combination, although I can't articulate my reservations.


New Jersey Nets (bdm860)- Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Courtney Lee

Difficult to assess without a PG, and most of the solid ones are off the board at this point. Good inside-out combo in the frontcourt, assuming Brand can rebound from the injury and Sheed stays focused.


New York Knicks (LEAHYISGOD)- Deron Williams, Vince Carter, Kendrick Perkins, Marvin Williams, Nenad Krstic

Another curious combination of players. Williams is spectacular and Perkins is solid, but Williams and Krstic are less consistent. Carter will carry the load on offense, as long as he stays committed and healthy, which has to be a concern.


Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer

Talented individually, perhaps the most complementary starting five in the division. Can Bynum stay on the court for more than 20 minutes a game? Brewer and Okafor are capable defenders; Okafor is incredibly consistent. The team will go as far as Anthony and Davis will take them. 


Toronto Raptors (Rondo2287)-Kevin Garnett, Gilbert Arenas, Marcus Camby, Ron Artest, Aaron Brooks, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

The backcourt features two point guards in name only. Artest, Garnett, and Camby are, or have been, the best defenders at their position. Concerns about KG's and Arena's performance after major injuries and surgery are legitimate, but with a capable bench, those concerns can be mitigated.

I'd with the following ranks:

1. Philly
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. New York
5. New Jersey

[johnnyrondo]

Love the analysis. TP's given. I will try and create one myself. Chicago envisions their team like the Suns team that probably would have won the title if not for the Amare and Diaw suspensions, but with one HUGE caveat. This team will be great on defense too, starting with the difference between Chris Paul and Nash on defense and going all the way to Horford actually mixing it up on defense in contrast to Amare's disinterest.

[Lucky17]

Thoughts on the Central Division:

Chicago Bulls (johnnyrondo)- Chris Paul, Al Horford, Pau Gasol, Tayshaun Prince, Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez, Raja Bell

Best PG in the league, terrific frontcourt tandem of skill and toughness, and a solid two-way player in Prince. SG is the only concern for this squad, but Rudy, Chandler, and Bell can all be plugged in depending on desired matchups. Best team in the division.


Cleveland Cavaliers (ChampKind)- Devin Harris, David West, Andrew Bogut, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford

Harris and West are very good players, and Bogut is also very skilled and tough, albeit unlucky so far in his career in terms of injuries. I'm not sure about the starting wings' ability to play defense, and Crawford tends to need the ball in his hands to be effective.


Detroit Pistons (Celtic Fan Forever)- Amare Stoudemire, Gerald Wallace, Mo Williams, Rip Hamilton, Sam Dalembert, Al Harrington

Another complementary group of players, although some reservations on Dalembert's motor, and Mo Williams' ability to serve as a distributor in this offense. Wallace is the only player who could be called a good defender at his position, but I like Harrington as 6th man.


Indiana Pacers (StartOrien)- Lamarus Aldridge, Andre Igoudala, Shane Battier, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry

Battier will be long gone by the time the rest of the team peaks. The makings of a very good future backcourt, and LMA and Iggy are very skilled players right now, and should remain so for many years.


Milwaukee Bucks (bucknersrevenge)- Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, J.R. Smith, Rodney Stuckey

Definitely needs a big man to round out the lineup. Stuckey is more of a 2 than a pure point, but he should be able to get the job done. Is JR a starter in the league? Very bright futures for these players, but less certain outlook for the team.

Ranks:

1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Cleveland
4. Milwaukie
5. Indiana

[Lucky17]

My take on the Southeast Division:

Atlanta Hawks (Gomesfan)- Danny Granger, Jose Calderon, Tracy McGrady, Jason Thompson, Allen Iverson

Mishmash of a roster. TMac's career is on a precipitous downturn, Iverson's also, but less so. Three very good young players in Granger, Calderon, and Thompson. Needs size, desperately. AI may become a distraction to this team, which will struggle to win.


Charlotte Bobcats (Tradetime)- Blake Griffin, Caron Butler, Andre Miller

Only three players? Can't hazard a guess as to how this team will perform. Griffin and Butler are nice blocks, but this team needs a lot more.


Miami Heat (celtsrp33)- Rajon Rondo, Shaquille O'Neal, Tyrus Thomas

Again, an incomplete roster. Rondo looks to have a good career ahead of him, provided he's surrounded by shooters. Shaq on the way down, but still effective, and Thomas is an enigma.


Orlando Magic (GainsvilleCeltic/Lucky17)- Lebron James, Jason Richardson, Marc Gasol, Kirk Hinrich, Charlie Villanueva

Biases aside, I think this team takes the division.


Washington Boxers (nickagneta)- Kevin Martin, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Raymond Felton

Although also an incomplete starting five, it's easily the 2nd best in the division. Martin is an exceptionally efficient scorer. Biedrins is a good, young, mobile center. Felton is a poor shooter for his position, but Jax gives the starting five some nastiness and grit.

1. Orlando
2. Washington
3. Atlanta
4. Miami
5. Charlotte

[Roy Hobbs]

Orlando has a bit of a cakewalk, huh?  Atlanta has some pieces, but I agree that the fit isn't the best.  Washington has decent talent in its top four, but it's going to struggle to supplement the team.

Miami and Charlotte just don't have enough players yet.

[johnnyrondo]

Another good analysis Lucky. I think if Miami drafts two good wing shooters tomorrow they'll be ok. Wouldn't be surprised to see them with two all-star's which counts for something. Shaq down low and Thomas with his developing jumper compliment each other well. I'd expect Shaq to get traded in a year, but right now, if, and a big if, they draft two shooters tomorrow they won't be as bad as many predict (coming from a big Rondo fan of course). Bobcats are in serious trouble. Orlando looks like the Bull's main competition in the East so far. I think when it's all said and done the East will be won by either Howard, Lebron or Chris Paul imho.

[johnnyrondo]

I forgot the Boxers and Hawks. Hawks look like a fun team, but resemble the Nuggets a little (before they got rid of A.I.). Boxers resemble the real Golden State Warriors.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

Rough go of it for the Southeast, in my opinion. I agree with all that's been said about the division, with Orlando moonwalking to an easy 3 seed at the very least. Washington by process of elimination is 2nd, but that's more because of their competition then their roster. I guess I want to see what their philosophy is and what they will try to do, because if I'm looking defense first I see major question marks. Atlanta is clearly going best available, and should be very busy in the trading season in order to make sense. If they have a clear vision, they have the pieces to create a better than useful roster. If not and the GM stands pat, they're a total mess right now. Miami and Charlotte, enough has been said already. Bottom line? They are compelling cases against the draft strategy of three picks in the first 5 rounds.

1. Orlando
2. Washington
3. Atlanta
4. Miami
5. Charlotte

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

Chicago, in my opinion, is the best team in the Eastern Conference, never mind the central. I love a lot about their roster, and think they are possibly one interior toughness draft pick and a backup point guard away from title contention. The next two days could make Chicago a favorite. If not, the GM will make something happen anyway. Nice job so far.

Cleveland has a ton of offense, and just as little defense. Outshooting teams will win in the regular season, but the playoffs are going to be the end of the line unless they solidify defensively. Like everyone else, I would love to see West without Paul. If West is legit without the services of CP3, this team can do a little damage.

I've looked at Detroit no less then 5 times on three different occasions, and I still can't tell if I like this roster or not. I kind of do, and I kind of don't. They can score, no doubt, but the defensive questions raised by others are very real as well. If Dalembert tries, and Amare is okay, they have a solid chance of making the playoffs. Rip is offense, and Wallace is more then serviceable on both ends. I don't trust Harrington, which is unfortunate. I also downright do not like Mo Williams running this offense. At all.

Indiana will be good. Not right now, but they will be, assuming Rubio plays here down the line. I don't believe in Curry, but Rubio and Iggy are slasher types that can make a Curry much better. In these rankings, it's tough to compare a Detroit to an Indiana, because Detroit is better today and next season, but I like what Indiana has done more then Detroit, so I will rank as such.

Milwaukee has big troubles, in my opinion. Durant is a future franchise stud, so that's a plus. However, when you're only big is Millsap, you're screwed both now and later. JR Smith and Stuckey don't do it for me. Two players that could realize potential, but might not. I find them equally inconsistent, and through the law of averages say one of them does succeed and one of them doesn't. Either one is a big problem if they fail.

1. Chicago
2. Cleveland
3. Indiana (Detroit better now, Indiana better organized)
4. Detroit
5. Milwaukee