I was reading a draft site I like named deanondraft.com and he had an old post there from about 2 years ago about shot creation and how we value draft picks. That article had some interesting observations that relate to Jaylen Brown and how we think about what type of player we want to see as Tatum's #2 option.
https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/03/jalen-green-vs-franz-wagner-how-much-should-creation-be-valued/Shot creation is a vital part of basketball, as any NBA offense needs at least one guy who can be relied on to create offense for the team off the dribble.
But at the same time, it is prone to being overrated by casual fans who can discern scoring more easily than nuanced abilities such as passing, defense, and efficiency.
If you really want to break the NBA, you need to load up on elite well rounded role players. Isolation scorers provide diminishing returns and cap team level upside with too many of them
He used a discussion of Jalen Green vs Franz Wagner as draft prospects and used comps of Booker (before he became more well-rounded, when he was more of a scoring-only SG with bad D) & Z LaVine for J Green while using Otto Porter for F Wagner. I thought he over-rated O Porter who had a few strong years but many middling ones. Anyway.
Strong arguments against J Green; some of which do apply to Jaylen and some of which do not. Argument which does apply is J Green's high turnovers, lack of passing and bad AST:TO ratio. Argument which does not is J Green's lack of size and inability to play multiple positions on defense which limits lineup flexability.
This is prior to the draft before Franz Wagner played an NBA game. He only scored 12ppg in two years in college. He has gone for 15ppg and 18ppg in his two years in the NBA. So he is evaluating Wagner more as an ultimate glue guy. A high quality defender who rarely makes defensive miscues. A good rebounder. A positive passer who again rarely makes mistakes. A good well rounded scorer who shoots well and spaces the floor.
So the argument is shot creation of J Green vs the well-roundedness of F Wagner in terms of evaluating them as draft prospects. Also a secondary discussion about Jalen Green having high upside vs a low floor whereas F Wagner has low upside vs high floor and do NBA GMs under-rate floor and over-rate ceiling when evaluating prospects. Some interesting ideas there.
So then he looks at the playoff teams - this would be 2020 so the bubble playoffs
Creation is important but it is not scarce
There are diminishing returns to having too many shot creators, but it is still necessary to have at least one guy to be competitive. There is some value to having a Russell Westbrook keep your team out of the basement even if it results in a round 1 playoff loss.
But how many teams are sorely missing a shot creator and need a Booker type more than a Porter type? Looking at this year’s playoffs, the obvious answer is Philadelphia as they were sorely missing a perimeter creator which played a large role in their upset loss to the Hawks. After that, the Knicks could have used somebody other than Julius Randle to get buckets, although a Devin Booker still likely would not be enough to get them out of round 1.
But other than that? Forgetting injuries, the Nets obviously need a Porter type role player more than another star scorer. Ditto for the Bucks with Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue. Hawks already have Trae. You could argue that the Heat need more than Bam and Jimmy, but they were good enough to make the finals last year. Celtics have Tatum and Brown to create and a lineup with 3 big wings can create some interesting defensive possibilities. Wiz clearly need a role playing wing with two small creators in Russ and Beal.
Utah has Conley + Mitchell but could use an upgrade on Bojan or O’Neale. Suns already have 1 Devin Booker, no room for another. Nuggets already have Murray and Jokic. Clippers have PG and Kawhi to create and could use a Morris/Mann upgrade. Mavs have Luka. Blazers have Dame and CJ. Lakers have LeBron and AD. Grizzlies have Ja Morant.
Essentially 14 of 16 playoff teams already have sufficient creation and could use an elite role playing wing more than an undersized volume scoring SG. And even going slightly lower. The Warriors already have Steph and Klay, Spurs have Dejounte and DeRozan, Kings have Fox, Buddy, and Haliburton, Pelicans have Zion and Ingram, Hornets have LaMelo, Bulls have LaVine.
The Pacers could use a shot of creation to help Sabonis and Brogdon. But there are just such few teams like this that qualify outside of the really terrible bottom feeders like Orlando, Detroit, and Houston.
Now some of those arguments are related to J Green being an undersized SG and only being a one-position player which does not relate to Jaylen Brown. Jaylen can play both SG and SF at a high level and some PF at a pretty good level if required.
So Jaylen could fit onto far more of those teams than a guy like Jalen Green can thus making Jaylen far more valuable in terms of building a team around. Also important to note since some of the names being mentioned as alternatives to Jaylen are undersized SGs like Bradley Beal or small PGs like D Garland.
I find it hard to remember all those 2020 teams.
The argument being would shot creation help more than a strong well-rounded player. So think Eric Gordon or Tayshaun Prince. Or more related to our discussion about Jaylen and the #2 option, at a star level Nique vs Pippen, or Rip Hamilton vs Andre Iguodala. Things of that nature.
Lineup Friction
Once you have one undersized, one dimensional isolation scorer, there is no value in having another. Whereas you cannot have enough Otto Porters. You can comfortably play a lineup with 3 Otto Porters or maybe even 4 in certain occasions, as long as there is one star playmaker to facilitate the offense.
Further, if you have an actual superstar like LeBron or Luka or Giannis, you are better off pairing them with an Otto Porter than a Booker or LaVine. LeBron has shown that he provides maximum value surrounded by efficient role players. Then when he teamed up with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in Miami, adjusted plus minus essentially said that they were going to break NBA basketball. But because of their poor synergy, they were not even better than LeBron’s final 2 years in Cleveland in their first season together.
The 73 win Golden State Warriors were great because they had one elite creator in Stephen Curry and 3 excellent role players in Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala who provided significant value without needing the ball. Harrison Barnes was a decent enough 5th wheel to round out the death lineup since he is big enough to match up physically with most opponents and capable of making open shots.
I find the discussion of GSW very interesting. Draymond was a Pippen-esque type player. Klay was a high volume shot taker but played a lot off the ball and had huge value as an off-ball threat.
This draft discussion of Franz Wagner concentrates more on H Barnes but Klay vs Jaylen or Draymond vs Jaylen would be more relevant debates for our Celtics team. Would GSW have been better off with a superior one-on-one player like Jaylen than a superior off-ball and team offensive player like Klay? Would they have better off with Jaylen's shot creation than Draymond's huge non-scoring contributions?
I certainly believe that that 73 win GSW team was better off with Draymond than Jaylen. Draymond did much more to help his teammates and make people around him better. An ultimate defender, good rebounder, strong ball-handler and passer and provided solid scoring that season as well.
The Klay vs Jaylen is a closer argument but again I go with Klay. Klay's off ball movement allowed the offense to flow better. Jaylen's superior one-on-one game would have been useful at times to stop offensive lulls but also would made the offense more stagnant (ball stopper) and easier to defend. In the end, I prefer Klay.
Why is creation valued so highly?
The fact of the matter is that creation is not that hard to find, and there are diminishing returns on it, yet teams often pay a massive premium to acquire it. Why?
The answer is likely because the best players are all elite shot creators, and it is an important part of team building to find a star who can do it efficiently. But the premium should be placed on finding a well rounded shot creator who provides value in the form of passing and/or defense, as that is what makes a superstar.
As good as Devin Booker has become, he is clearly not the best player on his team. The Suns didn’t have their breakout until adding MVP candidate Chris Paul. They also built around him perfectly with efficient guys who do not demand touches in DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Mikal Bridges. Yet they are still a 2nd tier contender who needed massive injury luck to reach the finals.
Booker is a clearly good player and the Suns would not be as good without him. But he not some special prize that makes team building easier the way it would to land a hyper-efficient and versatile role playing wing like Otto Porter.
Bottom Line
The narrative that shot creation yields big upside needs to be overhauled into being well rounded and versatile is important for high upside.
While creation is very important, there is only a finite amount that can fit onto any team. At any given moment, 90% of the players on the floor are not touching the ball, and to truly build an overpowered lineup like the Warriors’ death lineup, you need to load up on players who provide value outside of scoring.
Franz Wagner is uniquely good at defense, passing, avoiding turnovers, and is still a passable handler and creator. Jalen Green is the inverse player. This creates all sorts of subtle advantages for Franz.
He sneakily may have more upside than Green, he is easier to fit into a wider range of lineups, he is the more scarce commodity, and you simply have more potential to build an elite team with Franz.
Their overall values are still fairly close, and it is fairly likely that Franz will be the more useful player while casual fans believe that Green is better. Green will always have sexier highlights, and may end up with more all-star selections and jersey sales.
But if you want to build an NBA team that wins, Franz would be my choice and it would not be a particularly difficult one.
I thought the article had several interesting point of view in terms of how we value players ... and while this was focused on two draft options from two years ago, I thought some of the arguments related to our discussions about Jaylen as a #2.
Most of Jaylen's value comes from his shot-creation. He scored 27ppg but on a league average TS%. He does not pass well. He has high turnovers. A bad AST:TO ratio. A bad AST to FGA. So he does not create much for others around him. A taker rather than a giver on offense.
Jaylen provides more value on defense & rebounding than J Green does in the above example. JB also provides better lineup flexibility than J Green with his ability to play 2-3 positions vs 1 position. Still, Jaylen's defense has been mixed. He has played strong man defense but poor team defense for quite some time now. He is not the all-league defensive player we envisioned when he was younger. So not an offense-only player but also not a high end defender because of his many mistakes on team D. Again, not doing that much to improve the guys around him defensively due to his bad team D.
So these guys were just draft prospects. Jaylen is a star player. He is the #2 on a title contender. An All-Star. All-NBA this year. How do the arguments stack up for a scoring orientated All-Star vs a well-rounded All-Star? Would we be better off with a well rounded All-Star talent but lesser scorer than we are with Jaylen?
Are there stars out there that fit this mold that you can think of? Guys we could target?
Also, does this argument on the limitations of shot-creation and value of contributions elsewhere (defense, rebounding, passing) make you reconsider possible alternatives to Jaylen? Say guys like Bradley Beal or other scorers.
Topic: #2 Option & Shot Creation (Read 478 times)