2023 Draft Tiers

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Not a like for like but I found another low assist player.

It is a PF who went on to a good career. John Collins had only 17 assists in 33 games his sophomore year for 0.5apg in 27mpg while putting up 19ppg and 10rpg.

I was looking at possible comps for Trayce Jackson Davis. He reminded me a bit of John Collins. Not as explosive an athlete but that type of highly productive PF who does great work in isolations in the low post and mid post. More ball-handling than J Collins. Collins learned to shoot the 3 in the NBA but shot none in college.

In John Collins 6 NBA seasons for his career he has averaged 1.5apg to 1.4 turnovers per game. You could live with that from your SF if Cam Whitmore did that. Almost 10 shot attempts (FGs + FTs) to each assist. Not good. But you could live with it.

I like that comparison. A big part of Collins game though and the reason he's able to play a big 4 is that he can stretch the floor. That's something I don't think he'll ever be able to do. For that reason, what about Collins' teammate Okongwu? Or could he carve out a role similar to Aaron Gordon's on a team where he wouldn't have to handle the ball alot? Or could he be something like an early-career Pascal Siakim? Or probably my favorite comparison - Brandon Clarke.

[Celtics4ever]

I was looking at possible comps for Trayce Jackson Davis. He reminded me a bit of John Collins. Not as explosive an athlete but that type of highly productive PF who does great work in isolations in the low post and mid post. More ball-handling than J Collins. Collins learned to shoot the 3 in the NBA but shot none in college.

Trayce can  pass.

He’s also become a lethal passer who processes the game at a very high level. Can be an offensive hub from the mid post and is great in the DHO game.

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/trayce-jackson-davis/

Dissects defenses with high-post and short-roll playmaking, as well as terrific vision out of low-post double teams … Doubled his assist numbers from two to four in his senior season

NBA Comparison: Jaylin Williams/Trey Lyles

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/trayce-jackson-davis/

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Hand length (inches): 9.25
Hand width (inches): 10.75
Height without shoes: 6’8.25″
Standing reach: 8’10.00″
Weight: 240.4
Wingspan: 7’1.00″

Lane agility: 11.8 seconds
Shuttle run: 3.16 seconds
Three quarter sprint: 3.20 seconds
Standing vertical leap: 33 inches
Max vertical leap: 36.5 inches
Max bench press: Not tested yet

https://www.insidethehall.com/2023/05/16/nba-draft-combine-measurements-strength-and-agility-results-for-jalen-hood-schifino-trayce-jackson-davis/

I read he was tied for 6th highest standing vertical leap at the combine.  The knock on him is he has little offensive range, but neither does Rob

All these scouting reports exagerrate to some extent that is part of hyping the draft, as I see it.

[CFAN38]

Not a like for like but I found another low assist player.

It is a PF who went on to a good career. John Collins had only 17 assists in 33 games his sophomore year for 0.5apg in 27mpg while putting up 19ppg and 10rpg.

I was looking at possible comps for Trayce Jackson Davis. He reminded me a bit of John Collins. Not as explosive an athlete but that type of highly productive PF who does great work in isolations in the low post and mid post. More ball-handling than J Collins. Collins learned to shoot the 3 in the NBA but shot none in college.

In John Collins 6 NBA seasons for his career he has averaged 1.5apg to 1.4 turnovers per game. You could live with that from your SF if Cam Whitmore did that. Almost 10 shot attempts (FGs + FTs) to each assist. Not good. But you could live with it.

I like that comparison. A big part of Collins game though and the reason he's able to play a big 4 is that he can stretch the floor. That's something I don't think he'll ever be able to do. For that reason, what about Collins' teammate Okongwu? Or could he carve out a role similar to Aaron Gordon's on a team where he wouldn't have to handle the ball alot? Or could he be something like an early-career Pascal Siakim? Or probably my favorite comparison - Brandon Clarke.

Physically I like the Collins / TJD comp. TJD is slightly has a slightly  longer WS and is heavier at the time of the draft but also much older. Physical comp aside they have very different games and play a different role. Offensively I predict TJD will play similare to Rob. A vertical lob threat who can pass from the top of the key and on the short role. Defensively my hope is that he can be Al Horford like, he doesn’t have the elite length required to be a dominate rim protector but his combination of moderate length, timing and vertical should allow him to be an solid rim protector.  Also think he is fluid enough to handle most switches in much the same way an aging Al is able too.

This offense and defense combo is what makes him to appealing as a Celtic.

[CFAN38]

I said this before but I have made one more update to my Tiers, I added depth and committed more to the prospects that I am high on.


Tier         
1   
  1   Victor Wembanyama    France
         
2   
  2   Scoot Henderson    G League Ignite
         
3   
    3   Brandon Miller    Alabama
   4   Cam Whitmore    Villanova
         
4   
    5   Amen Thompson    Overtime Elite
   6   Ausar Thompson    Overtime Elite
   7   Jarace Walker    Houston
         
5   
    8   Anthony Black    Arkansas
   9   Bilal Coulibaly    France
   10   Taylor Hendricks    UCF
         
6   
    11   Leonard Miller    G League Ignite
   12   Kris Murray    Iowa
   13   Cason Wallace    Kentucky
   14   Gradey Dick    Kansas
   15   Keyonte George    Baylor
   16   Kobe Bufkin    Michigan
   17   Nick Smith Jr.    Arkansas
   18   Dereck Lively II    Duke
   19   Gregory Jackson    South Carolina
         
7   
    20   Jalen Hood-Schifino    Indiana
   21   Brice Sensabaugh    Ohio St.
   22   Jett Howard    Michigan
   23   Dariq Whitehead    Duke
   24   Trayce Jackson-Davis    Indiana
   25   Jordan Hawkins    UConn
         
         
8   
    26   Brandin Podziemski    Santa Clara
   27   Maxwell Lewis    Pepperdine
   28   Julian Phillips    Tennessee
   29   James Nnaji    Barcelona
   30   Sidy Cissoko    G League Ignite
   31   Jordan Walsh    Arkansas
   32   Kobe Brown    Missouri
   33   Chris Livingston   Kentucky
   34   Rayan Rupert    France
   35   Keyontae Johnson    Kansas St.
         
9   
    36   Andre Jackson Jr.    UConn
   37   Ben Sheppard    Belmont
   38   Colby Jones    Xavier
   39   Amari Bailey    UCLA
   40   Marcus Sasser    Houston
   41   Mouhamed Gueye    Washington St.
   42   Olivier-Maxence Prosper    Marquette
   43   Isaiah Wong    Miami
         
10   
    44   Terquavion Smith    NC State
   45   Jaime Jaquez Jr.    UCLA
   46   Julian Strawther    Gonzaga
   47   Noah Clowney    Alabama
   48   Tristan Vukcevic    KK Partizan
   49   Emoni Bates    E. Michigan
         
11   
    50   Jaylen Clark    UCLA
   51   Adama Sanogo    UConn
   52   Azuolas Tubelis   Arizona
   53   Landers Nolley 2   Cinn
   54     Oscar Tshiebwe Kentucky
        55   Jazian Gortman   OTE
   56   Seth Lundy    Penn St.
   57   Mojave King    G League Ignite
   58   Toumani Camara   Dayton
   59   Ricky Council IV    Arkansas
   60   Jalen Wilson    Kansas
   61   Olivier Nkamhoua    Tennessee

[Who]

4   
    5   Amen Thompson    Overtime Elite
   6   Ausar Thompson    Overtime Elite
   7   Jarace Walker    Houston
         
5   
    8   Anthony Black    Arkansas
   9   Bilal Coulibaly    France
   10   Taylor Hendricks    UCF

Why do you rate Jarace Walker a tier above Taylor Hendricks?

My reading on the two is that Taylor Hendricks has more high end potential / upside largely due to superior athleticism which allows him to be more disruptive defensively. Jarace Walker more of a glue guy starter. His lack of high end athleticism limiting his offensive creation.

[CFAN38]

4   
    5   Amen Thompson    Overtime Elite
   6   Ausar Thompson    Overtime Elite
   7   Jarace Walker    Houston
         
5   
    8   Anthony Black    Arkansas
   9   Bilal Coulibaly    France
   10   Taylor Hendricks    UCF

Why do you rate Jarace Walker a tier above Taylor Hendricks?

My reading on the two is that Taylor Hendricks has more high end potential / upside largely due to superior athleticism which allows him to be more disruptive defensively. Jarace Walker more of a glue guy starter. His lack of high end athleticism limiting his offensive creation.

I have Walker a tier above because I see him as a very winning player archetype. At his ceiling a team could have a switch everything forward who plays high leverage minutes at the 5. His strength and length will allow him to match up with any 5 in the league while still being able to switch on P&R. Outside of the defense I expect him to shoot a respectable % from 3 and be a solid passer.

I also like Hendricks but see him as a complementary piece on both ends of the court while I think Walker sets himself apart on defense. 

[Who]

This may be a strange question, but how does Jarace Walker compare to Grant Williams?

I see J Walker measured in at 6-6 and a half inch. So close to Grant Williams size. Both physical muscular defenders. I have read that J Walker does not have high level lateral quickness. That is what got me thinking of Grant.

Their NCAA stats show some similarities from Grant's freshman year to J Walker's freshman year. Both around 12ppg 6rpg. Both around 1spg (1.0 Jarace to 0.8 Grant). Walker 1.5bpg Grant 1.9bpg. Walker has better AST:TO at 1.8:1.5 compared to Grant's 1.1:1.9 AST:TO.

Grant shot a better FG% (50% to 46%), a better 3PT% at 37.5% to 34.6% but on lower volume at 1 attempt per game vs 2.8 for J Walker. Grant got the FT line much more often with 5.9 FTAs per game vs only 2.2 FTA for J Walker. That is a shockingly low number for a physical NBA big forward. 2.2 FTAs in college? That is low. Both guys shot 66% FT%.

There is a difference in strength of schedule. I do not use this number so I do not know whether high or low is better but there is a big difference. J Walker 4.79 vs Grant 10.18. Does this mean Grant played a tougher schedule or J Walker played a tougher schedule?


Edit: Grant Williams measured 6 foot 5 and three quarters without shoes. So he is 3/4ers of an inch shorter than Jarace Walker. Similar height slightly smaller. Big difference in wingspan. You said Jarace Walker was 7-2. Grant was only 6-9 and three quarters. So 4 inches extra in length. Big difference.

Interestingly though they both have the same standing reach at 8 foot 8 and a half inches despite the large difference in wingspan.

[Who]

Cam Withmore surprising wingspan. He measured in at a shade under 6-6 with only a 6-8 and a half wingspan.

Johnny Jordan Hawkins 6-4 and a quarter with a 6-6 three quarters wingspan. Not great size. Only 186lbs. Small bulk wise too.

[Who]

That guy Jordan Hawkins reads more like a 2nd round pick than a guy who is getting talked about as a late lotto pick to mid first rounder.

Too small. Short at 6-4. Small arms. Lacks bulk.

Heavily reliant on the three point shot. Doesn't create much from two. Doesn't create much for teammates via passing. More of a catch and shoot and settle for long shots off the dribble because his handle isn't good enough to get to the rim. Rebounding numbers are poor. Lack of size spells trouble for defense.

And appearently he is old for his draft class. Closer to a 3rd year player than a typical sophomore in age.

Not good. Lot of red flags.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

That guy Jordan Hawkins reads more like a 2nd round pick than a guy who is getting talked about as a late lotto pick to mid first rounder.

Too small. Short at 6-4. Small arms. Lacks bulk.

Heavily reliant on the three point shot. Doesn't create much from two. Doesn't create much for teammates via passing. More of a catch and shoot and settle for long shots off the dribble because his handle isn't good enough to get to the rim. Rebounding numbers are poor. Lack of size spells trouble for defense.

And appearently he is old for his draft class. Closer to a 3rd year player than a typical sophomore in age.

Not good. Lot of red flags.

Is he more Landry Shamet or Klay Thompson type of shooter?

To me, he looks like a guy who will play in the league a long time as a shooter, but won't be a starter.

[CFAN38]

This may be a strange question, but how does Jarace Walker compare to Grant Williams?

I see J Walker measured in at 6-6 and a half inch. So close to Grant Williams size. Both physical muscular defenders. I have read that J Walker does not have high level lateral quickness. That is what got me thinking of Grant.

Their NCAA stats show some similarities from Grant's freshman year to J Walker's freshman year. Both around 12ppg 6rpg. Both around 1spg (1.0 Jarace to 0.8 Grant). Walker 1.5bpg Grant 1.9bpg. Walker has better AST:TO at 1.8:1.5 compared to Grant's 1.1:1.9 AST:TO.

Grant shot a better FG% (50% to 46%), a better 3PT% at 37.5% to 34.6% but on lower volume at 1 attempt per game vs 2.8 for J Walker. Grant got the FT line much more often with 5.9 FTAs per game vs only 2.2 FTA for J Walker. That is a shockingly low number for a physical NBA big forward. 2.2 FTAs in college? That is low. Both guys shot 66% FT%.

There is a difference in strength of schedule. I do not use this number so I do not know whether high or low is better but there is a big difference. J Walker 4.79 vs Grant 10.18. Does this mean Grant played a tougher schedule or J Walker played a tougher schedule?


Edit: Grant Williams measured 6 foot 5 and three quarters without shoes. So he is 3/4ers of an inch shorter than Jarace Walker. Similar height slightly smaller. Big difference in wingspan. You said Jarace Walker was 7-2. Grant was only 6-9 and three quarters. So 4 inches extra in length. Big difference.

Interestingly though they both have the same standing reach at 8 foot 8 and a half inches despite the large difference in wingspan.

First I just want to point out you have to be careful using standing reach as a comparative measurement. I don't want to dive deep into it right now but if you look back at combine vertical leap stats and then look at the standing reaches of the top performers you will notice they are suspiciously low. Its not difficult to not fully stretch and shed a few inches of your reach thus helping the max vertical measurement.

Grant Williams standing reach 8'8.5" max vert 31", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.29'

Walkers standing reach is also 8'8.5" max vert 38", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.87'


Overall I think Walker and Grant is a good comparison and represents the role Walker will likely play in the NBA. If Grant had a 4" longer wingspan and was slightly more explosive how would be be as an NBA player? How high would that upgraded version of Grant go in the draft? 

[CFAN38]

Cam Withmore surprising wingspan. He measured in at a shade under 6-6 with only a 6-8 and a half wingspan.

Johnny Jordan Hawkins 6-4 and a quarter with a 6-6 three quarters wingspan. Not great size. Only 186lbs. Small bulk wise too.

Whitmore doesn't have elite length but actually has very similar measurements to Jimmy Butler, he is incredibly explosive and strong.

[Who]

This may be a strange question, but how does Jarace Walker compare to Grant Williams?

I see J Walker measured in at 6-6 and a half inch. So close to Grant Williams size. Both physical muscular defenders. I have read that J Walker does not have high level lateral quickness. That is what got me thinking of Grant.

Their NCAA stats show some similarities from Grant's freshman year to J Walker's freshman year. Both around 12ppg 6rpg. Both around 1spg (1.0 Jarace to 0.8 Grant). Walker 1.5bpg Grant 1.9bpg. Walker has better AST:TO at 1.8:1.5 compared to Grant's 1.1:1.9 AST:TO.

Grant shot a better FG% (50% to 46%), a better 3PT% at 37.5% to 34.6% but on lower volume at 1 attempt per game vs 2.8 for J Walker. Grant got the FT line much more often with 5.9 FTAs per game vs only 2.2 FTA for J Walker. That is a shockingly low number for a physical NBA big forward. 2.2 FTAs in college? That is low. Both guys shot 66% FT%.

There is a difference in strength of schedule. I do not use this number so I do not know whether high or low is better but there is a big difference. J Walker 4.79 vs Grant 10.18. Does this mean Grant played a tougher schedule or J Walker played a tougher schedule?


Edit: Grant Williams measured 6 foot 5 and three quarters without shoes. So he is 3/4ers of an inch shorter than Jarace Walker. Similar height slightly smaller. Big difference in wingspan. You said Jarace Walker was 7-2. Grant was only 6-9 and three quarters. So 4 inches extra in length. Big difference.

Interestingly though they both have the same standing reach at 8 foot 8 and a half inches despite the large difference in wingspan.

First I just want to point out you have to be careful using standing reach as a comparative measurement. I don't want to dive deep into it right now but if you look back at combine vertical leap stats and then look at the standing reaches of the top performers you will notice they are suspiciously low. Its not difficult to not fully stretch and shed a few inches of your reach thus helping the max vertical measurement.

Grant Williams standing reach 8'8.5" max vert 31", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.29'

Walkers standing reach is also 8'8.5" max vert 38", the apex of his reach jumping is 11.87'


Overall I think Walker and Grant is a good comparison and represents the role Walker will likely play in the NBA. If Grant had a 4" longer wingspan and was slightly more explosive how would be be as an NBA player? How high would that upgraded version of Grant go in the draft?

Where do you get the reach off of jumping? Do you have to add max vert and standing reach together? Or do they give you the number somewhere?

I tried looking for it on the NBA's draft measurement page and I could not find it. The old Draftexpress measurements were way better than NBA.com's pages. Easier to use.

Overall I think Walker and Grant is a good comparison and represents the role Walker will likely play in the NBA. If Grant had a 4" longer wingspan and was slightly more explosive how would be be as an NBA player? How high would that upgraded version of Grant go in the draft?

Yes. Absolutely. A more athletic Grant Williams is a good player. Grant as he is is a borderline starter. A better version of Grant is a clear starter and high end glue guy.

Another player I was thinking of was PJ Tucker. That type of stocky short forward who can play strong D despite not being an A-list athlete.

I am having trouble pinning down just how athletic Jarace Walker is. He seems like a good athlete but not a great athlete. He lacks that high end quickness & explosion. I saw him get blown by a few times in a way that reminded me of G-Will. Also troubled by that low FT rate. You see a lot of big physical NBA athletes getting FT rates in the 40-60% range. Not around 20%.

Jarace Walker looks like a guy who can handle himself well on a switches and take tough offensive players for a few minutes here and there but not full time. Not like Aaron Gordon can. Where Aaron is the stopper they use on LeBron or Jimmy Butler.

More like Jarace is the 2nd or 3rd guy to throw on those big stars when your main defensive stoppers need a breather. Sorta like how Horford and/or Tatum are usually our main defensive forwards and Grant is 3rd in line here after them.

And then on team defense, does he have enough quickness as a PF to be a highly disruptive help defender? He looks good. He will switch well. He will be able to take care of his own duties. He will provide some help. But I'm not sure he has that high end speed to cover a large area of the floor in help & recoveries. So I am thinking more of a plus defender than a great defender.

[Who]

That guy Jordan Hawkins reads more like a 2nd round pick than a guy who is getting talked about as a late lotto pick to mid first rounder.

Too small. Short at 6-4. Small arms. Lacks bulk.

Heavily reliant on the three point shot. Doesn't create much from two. Doesn't create much for teammates via passing. More of a catch and shoot and settle for long shots off the dribble because his handle isn't good enough to get to the rim. Rebounding numbers are poor. Lack of size spells trouble for defense.

And appearently he is old for his draft class. Closer to a 3rd year player than a typical sophomore in age.

Not good. Lot of red flags.

Is he more Landry Shamet or Klay Thompson type of shooter?

To me, he looks like a guy who will play in the league a long time as a shooter, but won't be a starter.

I am thinking of Jordan Hawkins as an average bench SG. Not enough defense & rebounding and not enough creation to be more than that.

I like Amari Bailey more. He has better handles and driving skills. He has similar defense & rebounding issues at SG but better creation. He looks a better bet to me.


Edit: J Hawkins' shooting reminds me of Gary Neal more than Shamet. More volume. Very good at getting shots off. Shamet doesn't shoot enough for a guy who is a good shooter. Good mix of volume and accuracy. A bench role similar to Gary Neal is what I am expecting for J Hawkins in the NBA.

[Who]

A more optimistic comp for Jordan Hawkins would be JJ Redick.

Another small SG at 6-3/6-4. Short arms. Lightweight build. Took Redick a few years to get going in the NBA - to learn how to defend at the NBA level. Then another few years to learn how to create in PnRs.

Their sophomore stats are very similar.

JJ Redick: 15.9ppg 3.1rpg 1.6apg
J Hawkins: 16.2ppg 3.8rpg 1.3apg

Both guys finished with 26/27 steals in 37 games played. JJ had only 2-3 blocks a season all 4 years. Hawkins actually had 19 blocks his sophomore year. Redick had 70 turnovers. Hawkins only 50.

The FGA was 407 for Redick at 42% vs 450 at 41% for Hawkins. The 3PTA was 258 for Redick at 39.5% for 281 for Hawkins at 38.8%. 150 FTA for Redick at 95% vs 141 FTA at 89% for Hawkins.

Eerily similar.

Redick went on to average 22ppg as a junior and 27ppg as a senior. Then two years of not playing much before working himself into the rotation as a bench player in his 3rd NBA season. It was his 6th season before he started to make a claim for himself as a starting caliber SG in the NBA. So that is 8 years after sophomore season of hard work and development to get to that point.