Tatum and Brown are average to below average at shooting 3PTs...

[Roy H.]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players?  It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

[keevsnick]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

[Roy H.]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

In the 60+ games (playoffs and regular season) that we shot below 40% from 3PT, we were below .500.  It's not a reliable system.

[Kernewek]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players?  It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

There are some caveats to the data you've pulled, though. At a glance:

• Tatum's 3PT% increased every postseason until this one
• Brown has shot fewer threes in the postseason every season since 19-20
• Over the last three seasons, Brown has attempted 7.1, 7.0, and 7.3 threes per game, despite averaging two more shot attempts overall this season

Likewise, Tatum attempted 20.6 shots last season, with 8.6 3PA... this year he's attempting 21.1 shots with 9.3 3PA - and also averaged 2.2 more free throws than last season.

[Indocelts]

If you take the post ASG data I think the number is even worse, no?

Pre ASG is like the honeymoon period with Joe's system.

[keevsnick]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

In the 60+ games (playoffs and regular season) that we shot below 40% from 3PT, we were below .500.  It's not a reliable system.

I was tracking this for some time. If I remember correctly they win about 60+% of the time when they shoot between 34% and 40%. The issue was when they shooting below 34%, their win percentage plummets to like 30%.

I guess to know how much this matters I'd have to know general team records under similar circumstances. I'd guess a lot of teams struggle when they shoot sub 34%ish.

[wdleehi]

I am interested in the splits between the catch and shoot three vs. the dribble three and the step back three.


Too many times they are allowed to just hold the ball and wait, and then shoot.     

[Kernewek]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

In the 60+ games (playoffs and regular season) that we shot below 40% from 3PT, we were below .500.  It's not a reliable system.

I was tracking this for some time. If I remember correctly they win about 60+% of the time when they shoot between 34% and 40%. The issue was when they shooting below 34%, their win percentage plummets to like 30%.

I guess to know how much this matters I'd have to know general team records under similar circumstances. I'd guess a lot of teams struggle when they shoot sub 34%ish.

I shared some of this data in another thread - there are a lot of questions to ask about that piece of data that aren't answered by the source of the information.

[angryguy77]

This reliance on 3 is wasting the best part of tatum's game. It's criminal having him not work more mid range shots than 3's.
If they could get the ball to him inside the arc and go to work rather than outside, I'd bet the offense would flow better. It would allow for him to create more. Same with brown. Yet we instead want to force 3's because some nerd coach thinks game flow and situations are as constant as numbers on paper. This 3 ball philosophy is holding JT back and it's wasting his talent.

Maybe I'm too simplistic but I'd be running those guys off of screens all day and letting them create. They get the shots, the rest get leftovers.
Instead, our offense seems to operate like a hippie commune where everyone is entitled to a piece regardless of ability.

[Roy H.]

Weird stats for Tatum on 3PTs this season:

1st quarter: 31.6%
2nd quarter: 28.8%
3rd quarter: 43.6%
4th quarter: 35.0%
OT:  13.3% (only 15 attempts total)

Generally speaking, JT's 3PAs in the first half were terribly inefficient.  Also, he only shot above 36.0% in two months this season (40.8% in October; 36.1% in March).

[angryguy77]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

You can't take data from the reg season as a direct comparison because much of the stats are build playing garbage teams and you're facing defensive intensity not seen in the majority of reg season games.

[Roy H.]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

In the 60+ games (playoffs and regular season) that we shot below 40% from 3PT, we were below .500.  It's not a reliable system.

I was tracking this for some time. If I remember correctly they win about 60+% of the time when they shoot between 34% and 40%. The issue was when they shooting below 34%, their win percentage plummets to like 30%.

I guess to know how much this matters I'd have to know general team records under similar circumstances. I'd guess a lot of teams struggle when they shoot sub 34%ish.

Even 34% - 39%, using your numbers, is a 48 win pace.  That's not something to pat the team on the back for:  it's a terrible record for a team of this talent.

This team has two All-NBA players, the 6MOTY, an all-defensive guard, a former DPOY, etc., etc.  And yet, if we don't hit consistently at an elite level from outside, we play at a mediocre to very poor level.

[keevsnick]

Tatum: 35.0% 3PT%; 32.3% 3PT% in playoffs
Brown: 33.5% 3PT%; 35.4% 3PT% in playoffs

As with many players, their averages have historically gone down as their attempts have gone up.  With Tatum in particular, his 3PT% has declined four straight seasons, as his 3PAs have increased each year.  Meanwhile, Tatum shot 55.8% on twos this year, and is an elite FT generator and shooter.  Jaylen shot 57.6% from two. 

That being the case, does a "shoot threes at all times" offense make sense with those as our two best players? It's hard to mimic the Warriors if you don't have Steph and Klay.

They had the 2nd best offense rating in the league this year. it clearly worked somewhat. The risk is exactly what happened this series, you shoot 30.5% over seven games and lose. but even then, if the Heat don't hit 43% of theirs the c's win the series.

It took awful shooting luck BOTH ways to lose the series.

In the 60+ games (playoffs and regular season) that we shot below 40% from 3PT, we were below .500.  It's not a reliable system.

I was tracking this for some time. If I remember correctly they win about 60+% of the time when they shoot between 34% and 40%. The issue was when they shooting below 34%, their win percentage plummets to like 30%.

I guess to know how much this matters I'd have to know general team records under similar circumstances. I'd guess a lot of teams struggle when they shoot sub 34%ish.

I shared some of this data in another thread - there are a lot of questions to ask about that piece of data that aren't answered by the source of the information.

TP to you, i saw the post.

Above: 34%: 55-11
Below: 34% 13-22

So if they just shoot mediocre they win at the like a 68 win rate. Again, not saying this is good, or bad, just that the numbers are kind of malleable on this topic.

[Roy H.]

We are the 5th best 2PT shooting team in the league, yet we rank 29th in 2PT shooting attempts.  We're 28th in FTAs, despite being the 4th best FT shooting team in the NBA.

The offense needs more balance, and it needs to play to its strengths more.  There's just too much variability to taking threes. 

[Kernewek]

I am interested in the splits between the catch and shoot three vs. the dribble three and the step back three.


Too many times they are allowed to just hold the ball and wait, and then shoot.   

Ask and ye shall recieve:
Splits are 3PA/Percentage:

Catch and Shoot
Regular Season:
Tatum: 4.2/40.5%
Brown: 4.4/33.4%

Playoffs:
Tatum: 3.1/29%
Brown: 3.0/44.1%

Pullups:
Regular Season:
Tatum: 4.8/29.3%
Brown: 2.6/31.8%

Playoffs:
Tatum: 4.8/34%
Brown: 2.4/25.5%

And, for IndoCelt, here's the pre and post ASB numbers:
Pre-ASB Pullups:
Tatum: 4.8/28.6%
Brown: 2.5/32.4%

Post-ASB Pullups:
Tatum: 5/30.6%
Brown: 2.8/30.1%

Pre-ASB Catch & Shoot:
Tatum: 4.3/42.5%
Brown: 4.8/32.7%

Post-ASB Catch & Shoot:
Tatum: 3.8/34.4%
Brown: 3.4/35.9%

We are the 5th best 2PT shooting team in the league, yet we rank 29th in 2PT shooting attempts.  We're 28th in FTAs.  The offense needs more balance.

I do agree with this. I think this season can be seen as an overreaction to last year's Finals loss - we clearly needed more offense, and we got it, especially if you keep in mind we also signed an absolute defensive maestro ( ) in Gallinari - but I think that the kind of offense we were able to put together is very lopsided.