How many of the teams down 3-0 had two of the last 3 at home. Just curious.
Probably not as low as you might think. I don't have time to go and evaluate each 3-0 series to adjust for how HCA and seeding rules have changed over the years, but if we figure that of the 150 series where a team has been down 3-0 so far all follow the 2-2-1-1-1 HCA structure (except for the Finals, which changed to 2-3-2), then we can safely say that:
- 92 have finished in 4 games (4-0) - lower seed had two of the last 3 games at home
- 44 have finished in 5 games (4-1)- lower
higher seed had two of the last 3 games at home - 11 have finished in 6 games (4-2) - lower seed had two of the last 3 games at home
- 3 have finished in 7 games (4-3) - higher seed had two of the last 3 games at home
https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/playoff_series_3_0.htmSo there's our how we can qualify the data, assuming I'm counting correctly (never a given, and I'm in a bit of a Covid cloud at the moment unfortunately).
We just need to know the seed of the winning team for each 3-0 series, because thus far the series winner has always been up 3-0.
I tried looking up the biggest portion of the data (the sweeps) on a summary on sites like NBA sweep, because I'm not going to do this by hand, and according to them the higher seed swept the first round 79 times, the Semifinals 43 times, the Conference Finals 18 times, and the NBA Finals 7 times:
http://nbasweep.com/nba-statistics/Sweep data is kind of wonky for this question, though, since it goes all the way back to 1947 - and the playoff format has changed significantly since then. For example, we don't know how many of those 79 first round sweeps are not a best of 7, but considering there have been 147 higher-seed sweeps in NBA history so far - and 184 sweeps in total - we have to assume the answer is "more than a few", especially since this
isn't looking at 4-1 or 4-2 series finishes, which are also part of this 3-0 series start.
So this is kind of a fun rabbit hole, but it's annoying enough that I'll leave it to one of the professional content farmers or someone with more free time to figure out - you could use BBallRef/Stathead data to solve for it with Python pretty easily, though (but I can't do that from my phone
)
edit: this might be the brain fog talking but I got that wrong the first time - essentially the only time your scenario doesn't apply is when a higher seed team either loses in 6 or gets swept - because they will have played Home, Home, Away, Away for the sweep or Away-Home-Away in games 4, 5, and 6.
If you're a lower seeded team, you nearly always play two of your last three games at home unless you win the series in seven, because it's A-A-H-H-A-H-A.