In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.
But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.
I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above). But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension. Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers? So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey. If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table. And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade. Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.
I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax. But I think things have changed. A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough. Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast. Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.
So here's where we disagree. I think there's pretty close to a 100% chance the c's will offer him the 35% max.
The question here isn't "is Jaylen worth the supermax." That's the wrong way to look at it. The question is "Would you rather have Jaylen Brown on a supermax or trade him for pennies (nickels? dimes?) on the dollar because he's on an expiring that can't really be extended." Because those are your two options. If he's only on a one year deal you in all likelihood WILL NOT find a good deal for him, or at least not one that's fair value. If they had no choice maybe they do that kind of deal, but they do have a choice. Sign him, be really good next year, trade him when he has more value (or keep him and be good because he's an all-nba level guy).
Well, if the answer to the question "is Jaylen worth the supermax" is NO. Then what value do you think Jaylen would bring on the trade market on a supermax contract?
Then it's the choice between stubbornly hanging on Brown no matter what or take back at least one bad contract, because no team is going to trade a star who's actually worthy of a supermax for Brown on a supermax. Simply because that would typically be franchise players, which Brown clearly is not.
A simple hypothetical example to make this clear. In this series Adebayo is showing that he's incredibly valuable to the Heat. Brown plays a different position, but overall they share similarities, age, accolades, second option etc. However as soon as Adebayo signs a 55M+ contract no team is going to want to trade for him (unless it's to dispose a worse contract like Simmons or Poole).
You make it like we should make a choice about Brown after signing to a supermax contract, but I think then the choice is effectively already made.
And by the way I think his current market won't be that bad. He just made an All-NBA team which he may never repeat. And there are always teams who look for a quick short term improvement to make a swing for contention.
I don't think he's worth it in the sense that only like 6-8 guys are worth it. But there's a limited number all star/all nba players in the NBA, there's even fewer who arent a complete liabilioty on defense, and even FEWER who play the wing.
I think Jaylen Brown, locked in on a 5 year supermax, would have A LOT of value unless he like blows out his knee next year.
I just think its kind of crazy to think teams would value a guy with no loyalty to their franchise who isn't going to sign an extension and is in his walk year more than a guy under contract. And its not like we're talking about a 35 year old. The supermax runs through his age 28-32 seaosns, in other words his prime.