Jaylen Brown trade Ideas

[keevsnick]

If Brown is traded, I don't believe that he would be eligible for a supermax extension but I think the team that trades for him would still be able to offer him a similar contract once he becomes a UFA.  They would have his Bird rights and be able to offer more than anyone else.  I have not found a definitive explanation of this but I think even if traded, he could still be signed by the new team or at least they would have considerable advantage over other teams.  I am just not sure of exactly what the terms would be but I think either taking the supermax extension or signing to the max as a UFA end up at a similar place.

It might actually put the new team in a better position to sign him.  The Celtics are pretty much stuck with super max or nothing.  If traded, the new team would be able to still offer more than anyone else and it may end up at a more reasonable overall value.

No, they do not. I went over this in the other thread.

First 4 years:
Supermax with C's: 224 million.
30% Max with C's or other team: 192 million
30% Max if he leaves via free agency: 184 million

Five years:
Supermax (can sign this off season): 290 million
30% Max (if he waits untill 24' and re-sign with a new team): 249 million

In other words, significant incentive to sign the super max. 32 million dollars different over the first 4 years. If he's traded the difference between what his new team can sign him for over the first 4 years (192 vs 184) is marginal. The ability for his new team to offer a 5th year MIGHT matter vs other teams that could only offer 4. That's the only real advantage a team acquiring him has. But he's probably getting paid in his age 32 season either way, so that fifth year might not matter much to him.

[jpotter33]

I'd rather keep him, I think. The straight up trade ideas of Lillard or Garland are at least interesting to think about.

If Portland got drunk and wanted to do that Simmons + Sharpe + #3 deal, I'd probably do that, particularly if Scoot was available.

I’m intrigued by the Lillard and Garland ideas, too. Not sure that Cleveland would bite, though, and giving them a wing like Brown could make them really dangerous. I’d probably only do Lillard as a last resort given age, though would love to see him win a title here with Tatum. No real interest in the other Portland deal unless we were also moving the third pick for an upgrade like a Siakam.

I think ideally any JB trade would bring back a point guard who can also be trusted with the ball in late game situations.

Again tho... why are Portland or Cleveland are doing those trades? 

Portland is obvious why they won't. Brown isn't signing an extension there, a team where you swap out Lillard for Brown isn't going to be good next year so he's likely gone. Portland isn't trading their franchise icon for a 1 year rental of Jaylen Brown.

Cleveland makes slightly more sense, after all they need a wing. The issue is Garland is just starting an extension next year of 5 years at the 25% max. I don't think Cleveland is swapping five years of garland for 1 year of a guy they don't know they can re-sign. Maybe they are confident because Brown's friend Mitchell is on the team, but who knows if Mitchell wants to be there long term.

All of this assumes a handshake deal that Brown will resign there.

For Cleveland, not sure they take that risk, even with Brown presenting a much better fit for them.

For Portland, I would assume any trade for him would be routing Brown elsewhere.

But this also depends upon Brown’s preferences. I could very well see Brown caring less about his best title chances (which clearly seem to be here) and more about getting to a competitive situation but one where he can be the primary star with all the marketing potential. In that case, a place like Portland would be ideal.

But that isn't going to happen. Brown has ever reason to want to kill a trade because he loses the super max extension if he's traded. And if he is traded he has a lot of incentive NOT to re-sign until the off season, for financial reasons.

All these teams trading for him run into the same issue the Celtics were going to before he qualified for the supermax. Its hard to see him extending (not impossible, but no real incentive to untill 24').

Also: All Brown has ever said is how he wants to win. So not sure were you get THIS idea.

This doesn’t make any sense.

We’re only looking to trade him this summer if either (a) JB turns down a supermax indicating he doesn’t want to be here, or (b) we’re not going to give him a supermax and want to trade him because of the flight risk. So he’s not going to try and kill any trade per your reasoning because any trade will be contingent on these reasons. If we’re actually looking to trade him, JB is likely onboard because he either is wanting a change of scenery anyways or is mad about not getting a supermax offer from us.

Also, you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying an extend and trade; I’m saying a “handshake deal” to resign in free agency for the 5 year max, just like the Kyrie situation. This happens all the time when stars are traded, with sometimes it working and sometimes it not. Just have to find a team that is desperate enough and willing to risk that, like Dallas was this year and places like Portland likely being.

Regarding Brown’s preferences, there’s been a lot of rumblings about being in Tatum’s shadow and thinking he can be a primary option and star, and it’s not a completely unreasonable perspective. While most question it from a basketball perspective, it’s clear that the number one option is much more marketable (see Tatum’s 10,000 commercials right now), and Brown has undoubtedly lost marketing opportunities due to being on a team with JT. So I don’t think that’s an unreasonable possibility at all.

[keevsnick]

I'd rather keep him, I think. The straight up trade ideas of Lillard or Garland are at least interesting to think about.

If Portland got drunk and wanted to do that Simmons + Sharpe + #3 deal, I'd probably do that, particularly if Scoot was available.

I’m intrigued by the Lillard and Garland ideas, too. Not sure that Cleveland would bite, though, and giving them a wing like Brown could make them really dangerous. I’d probably only do Lillard as a last resort given age, though would love to see him win a title here with Tatum. No real interest in the other Portland deal unless we were also moving the third pick for an upgrade like a Siakam.

I think ideally any JB trade would bring back a point guard who can also be trusted with the ball in late game situations.

Again tho... why are Portland or Cleveland are doing those trades? 

Portland is obvious why they won't. Brown isn't signing an extension there, a team where you swap out Lillard for Brown isn't going to be good next year so he's likely gone. Portland isn't trading their franchise icon for a 1 year rental of Jaylen Brown.

Cleveland makes slightly more sense, after all they need a wing. The issue is Garland is just starting an extension next year of 5 years at the 25% max. I don't think Cleveland is swapping five years of garland for 1 year of a guy they don't know they can re-sign. Maybe they are confident because Brown's friend Mitchell is on the team, but who knows if Mitchell wants to be there long term.

All of this assumes a handshake deal that Brown will resign there.

For Cleveland, not sure they take that risk, even with Brown presenting a much better fit for them.

For Portland, I would assume any trade for him would be routing Brown elsewhere.

But this also depends upon Brown’s preferences. I could very well see Brown caring less about his best title chances (which clearly seem to be here) and more about getting to a competitive situation but one where he can be the primary star with all the marketing potential. In that case, a place like Portland would be ideal.

But that isn't going to happen. Brown has ever reason to want to kill a trade because he loses the super max extension if he's traded. And if he is traded he has a lot of incentive NOT to re-sign until the off season, for financial reasons.

All these teams trading for him run into the same issue the Celtics were going to before he qualified for the supermax. Its hard to see him extending (not impossible, but no real incentive to untill 24').

Also: All Brown has ever said is how he wants to win. So not sure were you get THIS idea.

This doesn’t make any sense.

We’re only looking to trade him this summer if either (a) JB turns down a supermax indicating he doesn’t want to be here, or (b) we’re not going to give him a supermax and want to trade him because of the flight risk. So he’s not going to try and kill any trade per your reasoning because any trade will be contingent on these reasons. If we’re actually looking to trade him, JB is likely onboard because he either is wanting a change of scenery anyways or is mad about not getting a supermax offer from us.

Also, you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying an extend and trade; I’m saying a “handshake deal” to resign in free agency for the 5 year max, just like the Kyrie situation. This happens all the time when stars are traded, with sometimes it working and sometimes it not. Just have to find a team that is desperate enough and willing to risk that, like Dallas was this year and places like Portland likely being.

Regarding Brown’s preferences, there’s been a lot of rumblings about being in Tatum’s shadow and thinking he can be a primary option and star, and it’s not a completely unreasonable perspective. While most question it from a basketball perspective, it’s clear that the number one option is much more marketable (see Tatum’s 10,000 commercials right now), and Brown has undoubtedly lost marketing opportunities due to being on a team with JT. So I don’t think that’s an unreasonable possibility at all.

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

[jpotter33]

I'd rather keep him, I think. The straight up trade ideas of Lillard or Garland are at least interesting to think about.

If Portland got drunk and wanted to do that Simmons + Sharpe + #3 deal, I'd probably do that, particularly if Scoot was available.

I’m intrigued by the Lillard and Garland ideas, too. Not sure that Cleveland would bite, though, and giving them a wing like Brown could make them really dangerous. I’d probably only do Lillard as a last resort given age, though would love to see him win a title here with Tatum. No real interest in the other Portland deal unless we were also moving the third pick for an upgrade like a Siakam.

I think ideally any JB trade would bring back a point guard who can also be trusted with the ball in late game situations.

Again tho... why are Portland or Cleveland are doing those trades? 

Portland is obvious why they won't. Brown isn't signing an extension there, a team where you swap out Lillard for Brown isn't going to be good next year so he's likely gone. Portland isn't trading their franchise icon for a 1 year rental of Jaylen Brown.

Cleveland makes slightly more sense, after all they need a wing. The issue is Garland is just starting an extension next year of 5 years at the 25% max. I don't think Cleveland is swapping five years of garland for 1 year of a guy they don't know they can re-sign. Maybe they are confident because Brown's friend Mitchell is on the team, but who knows if Mitchell wants to be there long term.

All of this assumes a handshake deal that Brown will resign there.

For Cleveland, not sure they take that risk, even with Brown presenting a much better fit for them.

For Portland, I would assume any trade for him would be routing Brown elsewhere.

But this also depends upon Brown’s preferences. I could very well see Brown caring less about his best title chances (which clearly seem to be here) and more about getting to a competitive situation but one where he can be the primary star with all the marketing potential. In that case, a place like Portland would be ideal.

But that isn't going to happen. Brown has ever reason to want to kill a trade because he loses the super max extension if he's traded. And if he is traded he has a lot of incentive NOT to re-sign until the off season, for financial reasons.

All these teams trading for him run into the same issue the Celtics were going to before he qualified for the supermax. Its hard to see him extending (not impossible, but no real incentive to untill 24').

Also: All Brown has ever said is how he wants to win. So not sure were you get THIS idea.

This doesn’t make any sense.

We’re only looking to trade him this summer if either (a) JB turns down a supermax indicating he doesn’t want to be here, or (b) we’re not going to give him a supermax and want to trade him because of the flight risk. So he’s not going to try and kill any trade per your reasoning because any trade will be contingent on these reasons. If we’re actually looking to trade him, JB is likely onboard because he either is wanting a change of scenery anyways or is mad about not getting a supermax offer from us.

Also, you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying an extend and trade; I’m saying a “handshake deal” to resign in free agency for the 5 year max, just like the Kyrie situation. This happens all the time when stars are traded, with sometimes it working and sometimes it not. Just have to find a team that is desperate enough and willing to risk that, like Dallas was this year and places like Portland likely being.

Regarding Brown’s preferences, there’s been a lot of rumblings about being in Tatum’s shadow and thinking he can be a primary option and star, and it’s not a completely unreasonable perspective. While most question it from a basketball perspective, it’s clear that the number one option is much more marketable (see Tatum’s 10,000 commercials right now), and Brown has undoubtedly lost marketing opportunities due to being on a team with JT. So I don’t think that’s an unreasonable possibility at all.

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? He has SOME control offer the situation.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean.

Another consideration is I believe that they don’t technically have to offer him the full 35% either. I think it was Gobert who got a “super max” but it wasn’t the full 35%. It’s something like they can offer between 30-35% over 5 years. Lowe and Marks we’re talking about this on the Lowe Post podcast.

That said, I do anticipate that JB wants/expects the full 35%, and not sure trying to shave a few percentage points off there is worth the risk of alienating JB if you’re truly wanting to keep him. I remember reading a story one time that to players even if the money difference is minuscule, there’s something intangible valuable about being a “full max” contract that NBA players highly value as a reputational good. I imagine the same applies here.

[RJ87]

I'd rather keep him, I think. The straight up trade ideas of Lillard or Garland are at least interesting to think about.

If Portland got drunk and wanted to do that Simmons + Sharpe + #3 deal, I'd probably do that, particularly if Scoot was available.

I’m intrigued by the Lillard and Garland ideas, too. Not sure that Cleveland would bite, though, and giving them a wing like Brown could make them really dangerous. I’d probably only do Lillard as a last resort given age, though would love to see him win a title here with Tatum. No real interest in the other Portland deal unless we were also moving the third pick for an upgrade like a Siakam.

I think ideally any JB trade would bring back a point guard who can also be trusted with the ball in late game situations.

Again tho... why are Portland or Cleveland are doing those trades? 

Portland is obvious why they won't. Brown isn't signing an extension there, a team where you swap out Lillard for Brown isn't going to be good next year so he's likely gone. Portland isn't trading their franchise icon for a 1 year rental of Jaylen Brown.

Cleveland makes slightly more sense, after all they need a wing. The issue is Garland is just starting an extension next year of 5 years at the 25% max. I don't think Cleveland is swapping five years of garland for 1 year of a guy they don't know they can re-sign. Maybe they are confident because Brown's friend Mitchell is on the team, but who knows if Mitchell wants to be there long term.

All of this assumes a handshake deal that Brown will resign there.

For Cleveland, not sure they take that risk, even with Brown presenting a much better fit for them.

For Portland, I would assume any trade for him would be routing Brown elsewhere.

But this also depends upon Brown’s preferences. I could very well see Brown caring less about his best title chances (which clearly seem to be here) and more about getting to a competitive situation but one where he can be the primary star with all the marketing potential. In that case, a place like Portland would be ideal.

But that isn't going to happen. Brown has ever reason to want to kill a trade because he loses the super max extension if he's traded. And if he is traded he has a lot of incentive NOT to re-sign until the off season, for financial reasons.

All these teams trading for him run into the same issue the Celtics were going to before he qualified for the supermax. Its hard to see him extending (not impossible, but no real incentive to untill 24').

Also: All Brown has ever said is how he wants to win. So not sure were you get THIS idea.

This doesn’t make any sense.

We’re only looking to trade him this summer if either (a) JB turns down a supermax indicating he doesn’t want to be here, or (b) we’re not going to give him a supermax and want to trade him because of the flight risk. So he’s not going to try and kill any trade per your reasoning because any trade will be contingent on these reasons. If we’re actually looking to trade him, JB is likely onboard because he either is wanting a change of scenery anyways or is mad about not getting a supermax offer from us.

Also, you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying an extend and trade; I’m saying a “handshake deal” to resign in free agency for the 5 year max, just like the Kyrie situation. This happens all the time when stars are traded, with sometimes it working and sometimes it not. Just have to find a team that is desperate enough and willing to risk that, like Dallas was this year and places like Portland likely being.

Regarding Brown’s preferences, there’s been a lot of rumblings about being in Tatum’s shadow and thinking he can be a primary option and star, and it’s not a completely unreasonable perspective. While most question it from a basketball perspective, it’s clear that the number one option is much more marketable (see Tatum’s 10,000 commercials right now), and Brown has undoubtedly lost marketing opportunities due to being on a team with JT. So I don’t think that’s an unreasonable possibility at all.

Jaylen's lost marketing opportunities because his team has been bad at it. That's why he originally signed with Donda Sports. A lot posters thought that was an agent/representation deal, but it was a marketing deal. When it comes down to it, I genuinely question what people around him are advising because that advice just hasn't been good. He's an All-Star/All-NBA player who has been without a basic sneaker endorsement deal for 2 years. It's head scratching.

Boston's a big enough market and one of the most nationally televised teams in the league, there's enough marketing opportunities for 2 players.

[Vermont Green]

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above).  But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension.  Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers?  So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey.  If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table.  And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade.  Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.

I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax.  But I think things have changed.  A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough.  Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast.  Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.

[keevsnick]

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above).  But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension.  Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers?  So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey.  If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table.  And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade.  Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.

I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax.  But I think things have changed.  A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough.  Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast.  Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.

So here's where we disagree. I think there's pretty close to a 100% chance the c's will offer him the 35% max.

The question here isn't "is Jaylen worth the supermax." That's the wrong way to look at it. The question is "Would you rather have Jaylen Brown on a supermax or trade him for pennies (nickels? dimes?) on the dollar because he's on an expiring that can't really be extended." Because those are your two options. If he's only on a one year deal you in all likelihood WILL NOT find a good deal for him, or at least not one that's fair value. If they had no choice maybe they do that kind of deal, but they do have a choice. Sign him, be really good next year, trade him when he has more value (or keep him and be good because he's an all-nba level guy).

[RodyTur10]

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above).  But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension.  Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers?  So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey.  If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table.  And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade.  Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.

I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax.  But I think things have changed.  A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough.  Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast.  Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.

So here's where we disagree. I think there's pretty close to a 100% chance the c's will offer him the 35% max.

The question here isn't "is Jaylen worth the supermax." That's the wrong way to look at it. The question is "Would you rather have Jaylen Brown on a supermax or trade him for pennies (nickels? dimes?) on the dollar because he's on an expiring that can't really be extended." Because those are your two options. If he's only on a one year deal you in all likelihood WILL NOT find a good deal for him, or at least not one that's fair value. If they had no choice maybe they do that kind of deal, but they do have a choice. Sign him, be really good next year, trade him when he has more value (or keep him and be good because he's an all-nba level guy).

Well, if the answer to the question "is Jaylen worth the supermax" is NO. Then what value do you think Jaylen would bring on the trade market on a supermax contract?

Then it's the choice between stubbornly hanging on Brown no matter what or take back at least one bad contract, because no team is going to trade a star who's actually worthy of a supermax for Brown on a supermax. Simply because that would typically be franchise players, which Brown clearly is not.

A simple hypothetical example to make this clear. In this series Adebayo is showing that he's incredibly valuable to the Heat. Brown plays a different position, but overall they share similarities, age, accolades, second option etc. However as soon as Adebayo signs a 55M+ contract no team is going to want to trade for him (unless it's to dispose a worse contract like Simmons or Poole).

You make it like we should make a choice about Brown after signing to a supermax contract, but I think then the choice is effectively already made.

And by the way I think his current market won't be that bad. He just made an All-NBA team which he may never repeat. And there are always teams who look for a quick short term improvement to make a swing for contention.

[Vermont Green]

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above).  But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension.  Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers?  So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey.  If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table.  And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade.  Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.

I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax.  But I think things have changed.  A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough.  Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast.  Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.

So here's where we disagree. I think there's pretty close to a 100% chance the c's will offer him the 35% max.

The question here isn't "is Jaylen worth the supermax." That's the wrong way to look at it. The question is "Would you rather have Jaylen Brown on a supermax or trade him for pennies (nickels? dimes?) on the dollar because he's on an expiring that can't really be extended." Because those are your two options. If he's only on a one year deal you in all likelihood WILL NOT find a good deal for him, or at least not one that's fair value. If they had no choice maybe they do that kind of deal, but they do have a choice. Sign him, be really good next year, trade him when he has more value (or keep him and be good because he's an all-nba level guy).

I don't agree with the premise that a trade of Brown only returns coins on the dollar.  I think he would have plenty of trade value this off season.  The team that gets him can still offer him the most when he becomes a UFA.  We are both speculating so who knows.  If we extend him to a supermax, that is it.  It is Tatum and Brown and whatever supporting cast can fit under the cap.  Kind of like the Lakers are with LeBron and Davis.  And as someone else posted, that would result in a really big contract to trade down the road.

[keevsnick]

In fairness, the reasoning here gets a little circular. Jaylen Brown wouldn't try to kill a deal because the c's aren't offering him the supermax anyway, yet..... if he did manage to kill any deal and cool his trade market and the c's can't trade him their best move is probably to offer him the supermax. You see the inherent problem there? You can't REALLY take the supermax off the table for him because if you can't find a deal for him you kind of have to give him the supermax or risk losing him for nothing. He has SOME control here.

But i think its kind of moot, because I don't think there's really any chance he's turning down the 35% max, nobody does. And I think the c's are almost certainly offering it, because they campaigned for him to make all-nba pretty hard and they knew what that would mean. There just arent many if any deals that make sense without Jaylen Brown under long term contract.

I agree that Brown isn't likely to turn down the supermax extension (and thanks for the detailed numbers above).  But I think there is a chance that the Celtics decide he is not worth a supermax extension.  Do they really want both Tatum and Brown on the payroll at those numbers?  So if they offer a still really good contract, say in line with "just" a max contract, which honestly is more in line with what he is really worth and would at best be his market value if he does not get a super max from the Celtics, that is when things could get dicey.  If he refuses a "just max" offer and says he wants to test the market (where at best he can get about the same deal), then trading him is on the table.  And I think if they decide they would rather trade him than pay the supermax, they can find a good trade.  Whoever gets him will still be able to offer the most and will have an advantage in resigning him.

I know everyone (including me) have been kind of assuming that the Celtics will offer the supermax.  But I think things have changed.  A team with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals will always be good but based on what we are seeing, maybe not good enough.  Are we better off with a team with say Siakam and Anunoby over Brown or some other little bit lesser "Robin" and a better, more balanced supporting cast.  Again, I think the lens on this will be refocused based on this playoff run.

So here's where we disagree. I think there's pretty close to a 100% chance the c's will offer him the 35% max.

The question here isn't "is Jaylen worth the supermax." That's the wrong way to look at it. The question is "Would you rather have Jaylen Brown on a supermax or trade him for pennies (nickels? dimes?) on the dollar because he's on an expiring that can't really be extended." Because those are your two options. If he's only on a one year deal you in all likelihood WILL NOT find a good deal for him, or at least not one that's fair value. If they had no choice maybe they do that kind of deal, but they do have a choice. Sign him, be really good next year, trade him when he has more value (or keep him and be good because he's an all-nba level guy).

I don't agree with the premise that a trade of Brown only returns coins on the dollar.  I think he would have plenty of trade value this off season.  The team that gets him can still offer him the most when he becomes a UFA.  We are both speculating so who knows.  If we extend him to a supermax, that is it.  It is Tatum and Brown and whatever supporting cast can fit under the cap.  Kind of like the Lakers are with LeBron and Davis.  And as someone else posted, that would result in a really big contract to trade down the road.

Yes, but only by a small amount. He's a huge flight risk wherever he goes because you can't get a commitment ahead of free agency, and once a guy reaches free agency all bets are off. That lowers his value in a trade, significantly. We can go back and forth on this, and of course it only takes 1 team thinking they can sign him to make a trade, buts its harder on an expiring.

[gouki88]

I would pull the trigger on this one. Taylor Hendricks would be a good long-term starting 4/5 prospect.

What type of player is Taylor Hendricks? Who does he play like / remind you of? What do you like about him?

I know nothing about him.

He has shades of a couple of different players for my mind. I see a bit of Jerami Grant in his offensive game with his combination of shooting and athleticism (with limited creation off the dribble).

But my mind keeps coming back to Josh Smith. Super active on the defensive end, explosive athleticism, similar size. Hendricks is a better shooter but a lesser passer.

Here's a nice video on Hendricks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzyM-LNaVcU&

[gouki88]

This one has him going to the Nets:

Boston Celtics receive: Mikal Bridges, Royce O’Neale, and the No. 21 pick (via Phoenix)

Brooklyn Nets receive: Jaylen Brown

Not sure I'm in on this one, although with 21, Jackson-Davis should be there.

https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/trade-proposal-ditches-jaylen-brown-mikal-bridges-nets/

Serious question - why do Brooklyn ship Bridges for Brown? Bridges' play as a Net is arguably equal to that of Brown, and he is much cheaper. He's also the most durable player in the league.

[Who]

 I want to start a thread of Trades that we would actually make right now for Brown.  Don't worry if it's a little too much in Bostons favor, we can always tweak the Trade later.

 I want to get the ball rolling on trades that would make the Celtics better now, or in the bear future. I think this first one is a no Brainer if the Magic want him.

 Brown for Wendell Carter and Banchero. Maybe add Suggs or Coke Anthony if we can get away with it, but just Carter and Banchero and I'll pull the trigger.

Wendell Carter
Banchero
Tatum
White
Smart

I'm not sure if Orlando would trade Banchero for Tatum, let alone Brown plus additional players. The guy is on a rookie contract, only 20 years old, and was a stud in his rookie season.

I would not trade Banchero for Jaylen if I were Orlando. Banchero is about 85-90% as good as Jaylen is right now and is very likely to at least be on a similar tier as Jaylen when he finishes developing. Plus, there is a chance he can be better than Jaylen. He certainly has a more interesting mix of ball-handling, passing and rebounding.

[Ed Monix]

Celtics: Giddey, 2023 12th Pick, 2024 Clippers 1st

Thunder: Brown

—————————

Obviously OKC need a handshake agreement that Brown will re-sign long term.

Gildress-Alexander, (Jalen) Williams, Brown & Holmgren, is a great starting point for reestablishing themselves as a contender.

———

Boston Celtics

White
Giddey
Tatum
Horford
Williams III

[Who]

Celtics: Giddey, 2023 12th Pick, 2024 Clippers 1st

Thunder: Brown

—————————

Obviously OKC need a handshake agreement that Brown will re-sign long term.

Gildress-Alexander, (Jalen) Williams, Brown & Holmgren, is a great starting point for reestablishing themselves as a contender.

———

Boston Celtics

White
Giddey
Tatum
Horford
Williams III

How good do you think Giddey is & can be?

He doesn't seem good enough to me to be worth Jaylen. No jump-shot. Questionable scoring ability. Is he a star talent or a multi-purpose role player?