Why Jaylen Brown is not getting traded this coming year

[Who]

I think the trade ideas with TOR are interesting.  I would offer this:

Brown and White
for
Siakam and Anunoby

This would give us a really big starting group:

Smart
Brogdon
Tatum
Siakam
RWill

Pritchard, Anunoby, Horford, Grant, Hauser, Gallinari

For Toronto, they end up with:

VanVleet
White
Brown
Barnes
Poeltl

This deal fulfills my criteria of getting an all star level big (Siakam) for Brown to better balance the the roster. Anunoby over White is more size and versatility.  It is still tough to give up Brown, but this feels like a fair trade.  Not sure if this is the perfect trade, but it is something close.  I know many would rather give up Smart over White, and I get that, I just can't get the second half of last season for White out of my head.  He missed so many shots.  But I would be open to that version of the trade also.  It is interesting that Brogdon-White was a better pair in the regular season but Brogdon-Smart was much better in the playoffs (by +/-).

To some degree, it is just semantics but I do think there is also something worthwhile to it. I don't like calling Siakam a big.

Siakam is basically the same size as Tatum. They are the same height (6-8 no shoes) and have a similar build (230lbs to 220lbs). Siakam has longer arms (7-3 wingspan to 7 feet). These are largely the same size.

Siakam isn't a big man. He is a forward.

Not all PFs are bigs. Some are bigs. Some are smaller and are forwards. Siakam is a forward.

Nor is he a forward like Draymond who is short like a forward but as strong as a tank with physicality and power who can defend 260lb centers in the post. Nor is Siakam a 6-11 / 7-0 tall PF who has the height of a center.

Siakam has the size of a guy like Tatum.

---------------------------------

We also have an issue with Siakam's defense. He is a strong one-on-one defender but only a slightly above average team defender. He is not disciplined in his defense. He relies on his athleticism. He gets lost a lot. He is not fundamentally sound. You will see Toronto fans complaining about his off ball defense in much the same way we complain about Jaylen getting lost off the ball.

Siakam is not a defensive leader. He is not a defensive anchor. He is a follower. He is a good part of a puzzle.

If you have other great defenders around him, he'll be solid for you. So in Toronto when they won the title, they had Kawhi as a great wing defender, M Gasol as a smart anchor and great communicator, Lowry as feisty guard defender, quality role player defenders in Anunoby and Ibaka.

However, he is not a defensive leader. He will not organize your defense. He will be your main defender. He is not able to do that. He will compete. And his size and athleticism makes him a good one-on-one defender. His team defense is more mixed between the pluses of his athleticism & length and the minuses of his lack of focus and bad positioning.

Tatum, for example, is a much better defender than Siakam.

In Toronto, Anunoby is their best defender. Scottie Barnes is their 2nd best defender. Siakam is 3rd. Siakam is more a good defender than a high level or dominant defender (much like Jaylen).

This is important so that we will properly understand what level of defense he will bring to Boston and that is something that is more in line with what Jaylen Brown brings. And to understand this is not a big man who reinforces our interior defense, but a defensive forward / wing like Tatum. This is not a big man who organizes or anchors our defense.

So when we understand that defensive element, then we can compare their offensive games where Jaylen is the far superior scorer and Siakam a better passer and wonder just how much would (or if at all) Siakam help Boston?

[Who]

I think the trade ideas with TOR are interesting.  I would offer this:

Brown and White
for
Siakam and Anunoby

For Toronto, they end up with:

VanVleet
White
Brown
Barnes
Poeltl

A Jaylen Brown for Siakam trade would be really cool for Toronto. Jaylen gives them a different skill-set from their three current forwards of Scottie Barnes, Anunoby and Siakam. Jaylen more of a scorer, a shooter & a one-on-one shot creator. Better able to SG than any of the others.

You could have a cool lineup

G: VanVleet
G: Jaylen
F: S Barnes
F: Anunoby
C: Poeltl

So one guard, three big wings and one center.

Or if as suggested in some of these trades, expand the deal out with Anunoby headed to Boston with Smart or D White headed to Toronto.

Then you could create an excellent three man backcourt:

G: VanVleet, Smart
G: Jaylen

So a small PG in VanVleet with speed, a big wing (SG/SF) in Jaylen and a combo guard in Smart or D White. Guys who can play in any duos next to one another. Toronto could then play S Barnes at SF and bring in someone new to play PF. Toronto could start Otto Porter and keep a big long defensive lineup on the floor as their starting unit or sign someone new in FA to start. 

Or they could start Smart or D White at SG, slide Jaylen to SF and Scottie Barnes to PF and play uptempo run and gun basketball. Especially if you have D White. All 4 of those guys are strong in the open court.

A lot of fun options for the Raptors in either a smaller one for one trade or a bigger two for two trade. I would be inclined to keep Anunoby if I were them.

Edit: I just realized I forgot all about Gary Trent Jr. He would be their team's best shooter and 2nd best scorer after Jaylen. He would play a prominent role. I'd probably start him ahead of Smart or D White because he is a one position player whereas Smart or White are more suited to playing backup PG minutes. Or if Anunoby stays, Trent would be the 6th man with Jaylen sliding over to SF a lot. They'd need a 10-15mpg backup PG. Maybe someone like Pritchard.

G: VanVleet, (Pritchard)
G: Jaylen, Trent Jr
F: S Barnes
F: Anunoby, O Porter
C: Poeltl

Strong start to a team. Solid 7 man rotation. Should be able to nab a solid backup PG. A good backup center would be useful. They can keep using Precious Achiuwa if not. That could be a good 48-52 win team.

Then again, they are not far off a 48-52 win team as is. Jaylen is just a smoother fit for them than Siakam is. It would just be less messy / complicated with Jaylen.

[DrJasper]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

Why, exactly would the C's trade a younger, better, healthier player for an older, worse, smaller who is more expensive next year and just as expensive going forward? I mean the simple act of swapping Jaylens 30 million dollar contract next year for Beal's 47 million dollar contract would add tens of millions of dolllars in tax payment to the c's books next year. Its not going to happen, if it did one of the other core players would need to go out just to balance the books.

Its a hard no.

I understand where you’re coming from, but here are my thoughts:

This core has reached its peak, and running it back would mean that you trust this core to leave these soft emotional breakdowns behind them and suddenly become different players.
You’re purely looking at it from a business perspective, but championship teams have more than talented players on good contracts, which is what we saw the last two years.
Beal is 29, so it’s not like we’re trading for and old player, he is a good fit with Tatum on the court and off the court, he is a leader and he’s is tough mentally. In addition we get a talented player on a rookie contract with #8 to balance out the money difference. We would have to pay brown the Supermax anyways, but I’m very sure he doesn’t really want to be here. You want to build a culture around players who want to be on the same team.

[Who]

Beal is 29, so it’s not like we’re trading for and old player

Beal is 29 but he is about to turn 30 in a month or so. June 28, I looked it up. I noticed that the last time I looked up his stats that he was going to turn 30 before the start of next season. Jaylen is only 26. Turns 27 around start of the season (end of October).

The question I had was how well will Beal age. He is aging pretty well so far. Having the best seasons of his career. Guys with his skill-level seem to be aging well in the league at the moment. The less physical league benefits them. On the other hand, he is a small SG and those typically have not aged well in the past.

[gouki88]

Beal is 29, so it’s not like we’re trading for and old player

Beal is 29 but he is about to turn 30 in a month or so. June 28, I looked it up. I noticed that the last time I looked up his stats that he was going to turn 30 before the start of next season. Jaylen is only 26. Turns 27 around start of the season (end of October).

The question I had was how well will Beal age. He is aging pretty well so far. Having the best seasons of his career. Guys with his skill-level seem to be aging well in the league at the moment. The less physical league benefits them. On the other hand, he is a small SG and those typically have not aged well in the past.

I think he’ll age well. He’s figured out how to be a high efficiency scorer, and passes a lot better than Brown. He’ll likely age better than Brown, and be cheaper!

[Who]

Would you trade Jaylen for Darius Garland?

CLE gets to move away from their undersized defensively challenged backcourt. Fills that SF spot. Can look for a defensive guard to play alongside Donovan Mitchell.

BOS gets a true PG who can create off the bounce at a high rate. Garland can create for himself and for others. He can push the pace and give BOS tempo. He doesn't impede on Tatum too much. I feel Trae Young would. A similar type of player as Garland but even more ball dominant and even weaker defensively. I believe Garland would take a back-seat to Tatum easier.

I would and I thought about including both them and Atlanta in my list, but figured I had enough on there to emphasize the point that there are trades out there.  Towns is also a possibility given how badly Minnesota's season ended.

Why would Minny trade Towns for JB?   Edwards/JB doesn't seem like that good of a combo.  JB only has one year on his contract whereas Towns has 4 years left.

The Edwards / Jaylen combo isn't perfect but it is interesting as a trio of Edwards, Jaylen & Gobert. I like that trio more than I like their current trio of Edwards, Towns & Gobert. Jaylen and A Edwards may not be an ideal fit but they are still a much smoother fit than Towns & Gobert are.

I like that A Edwards, Jaylen and Gobert as a trio to build around. Maybe they can keep Conley. That is a good start towards a title contender. They should be a 50-55 win team with an average supporting cast. Get a better than average supporting cast and it is a 55-60 win team. Get A Edwards to have a breakout season and it might be a lethal playoff team.

I like a Jaylen for Towns trade for Minnesota.

I am also interested in it for Boston as well. Towns is an interesting player. I like him much more as a C than a PF. His defense ain't great but his offense is stellar. He adds much more offensively than he takes away defensively. He can be useful enough on D when surrounded by good defensive players & allowed to play his actual position (center).

[Vermont Green]

I am not convinced by Siakam as a #2.

He hasn't had one whole season of scoring efficiently since he expanded his offensive role after Kawhi left. He has been average to below average efficiency wise ever since.

Siakam was only scoring 16ppg next to Kawhi and while that was an efficient 16ppg in the regular season, that same efficiency cratered in the post-season. And would Siakam ever go back to being a 16-17ppg guy after being a 22-24ppg guy? I imagine you would have about the same chance of convincing Jaylen Brown to do likewise - next to no chance.

Siakam's main value offensively is his passing rather than his scoring but that comes in combination with high volume shot attempts. So give with one hand, take with the other.

--------------------------

Furthermore, I feel his offensive numbers are artificially pumped up / increased by his role over the last two years. He has played many minutes as a small ball center where he has a huge advantage over whoever guards him in terms of speed and being able to get to the basket. This has allowed him to boost his scoring totals, scoring efficiency & his assist numbers. This ability to play center has not been a good option for Toronto but more one out of desperation because of their complete lack of a center until acquiring Poeltl and he only plays 27mpg. Instead, they have sacrificed their defense & rebounding to boost their offense.

Unfortunately, the boost is rather small compared to the losses on D so it is not a good option for most teams. You would only use it sparingly unless completely desperate which the Raptors were. So individual benefit to play but negative losses for the team. So this is not something you want to continue moving forward so we should expect Siakam's production to drop off / decrease when he loses those small ball center minutes.

--------------------------------

Siakam is a mediocre jump-shooter = worse than Jaylen. Both from 3 but especially from 2. He doesn't spread the floor or play all that well off the ball.

-------------------------------

When Siakam played his best basketball, most efficient basketball, in Toronto next to Kawhi and on that Championship team there were other significant factors that boosted his efficiency.

They had strong team passing with strong guard play from Lowry and high post facilitator in Marc Gasol. When Gasol did not play, Serge Ibaka played as a stretch five. This is key to understanding Siakam.

Siakam does not play well as a creator / ball-handler. He is his most efficient cutting to the basket off the ball & looking for quick post ups inside. These are his most efficient scoring opportunities in terms of self-creation in the half-court.

He was able to get these when he played next to Gasol and Ibaka. When you replace those perimeter bigs with interior bigs (like Rob Williams), there is no longer space for Siakam to get a large number of touches inside for high efficiency scores which forced him to rely instead on perimeter scoring & drives which are less efficient for him. He is only a mediocre jump-shooter and a solid but unexceptional slasher.

To make the most out of Siakam, you have to commit to pairing him with players who will vacate the paint. The primary reason is for cutting and post ups. The secondary reason is to make more space for his drives which he ain't great at and needs help to do.

You do not want to pair him with low skilled bigs because then his lack of skill shows up more. We have an issue here with Rob Williams and second issue with Al Horford who is aging out of the team in the near future.

You had quite a little run of thoughtful posts, good stuff.  I don't necessarily disagree with any of it, but my end point from all of it is a little different.  You start by saying you are not convinced with Siakam as a "#2" but then go on and explain how he played some of his most efficient ball as a #2 to Kawhi on the way to a championship.  I don't know if Siakam thinks of himself as a 1 or a 2 or whatever, but if he was on the Celtics, he would have a very key role.  Siakam is not as good overall as Brown, but he is more complementary to Tatum positionally.  I see Siakam as the perfect fit positionally for our biggest weakness/need.  I don't see how him being Tatum's "Robin" would be an issue.  It is the perfect role for him.

As to the "to big or not to big" (butchering Shakespeare) to me, Siakam's natural position is PF (full stop).  Tatum's natural position is SF (full stop).  I consider bigs to be PFs and Cs.  I consider wings to be SGs and SFs  Like most NBA players these days, players can play more than one position but if you can play them at their natural position, it is best for them and best for team.  Yes, they are both 6'-8" but Siakam is 230 lbs vs. Tatum 210 lbs and Siakam has longer wingspan.  And yes, technically, both Tatum and Siakam are "forwards" but he plays a different role.  Tatum (a forward by your nomenclature) and Brown (a guard) are both wings and play far more similar roles than Tatum and Siakam would.

My biggest hesitation with trading Brown for Siakam is that even though we are getting a better positional fit, we are giving up the better player.  That is why I like getting Anunbody for White but maybe there needs to be a pick in there also, I don't know.  Or maybe it is something like Brown and Pritchard for Siakam and Achiuwa.  I prefer to get both Siakam and Anunoby though.

[RodyTur10]

TP for Who. Some A+ analysis.

[keevsnick]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

Why, exactly would the C's trade a younger, better, healthier player for an older, worse, smaller who is more expensive next year and just as expensive going forward? I mean the simple act of swapping Jaylens 30 million dollar contract next year for Beal's 47 million dollar contract would add tens of millions of dolllars in tax payment to the c's books next year. Its not going to happen, if it did one of the other core players would need to go out just to balance the books.

Its a hard no.

I understand where you’re coming from, but here are my thoughts:

This core has reached its peak, and running it back would mean that you trust this core to leave these soft emotional breakdowns behind them and suddenly become different players.
You’re purely looking at it from a business perspective, but championship teams have more than talented players on good contracts, which is what we saw the last two years.
Beal is 29, so it’s not like we’re trading for and old player, he is a good fit with Tatum on the court and off the court, he is a leader and he’s is tough mentally. In addition we get a talented player on a rookie contract with #8 to balance out the money difference. We would have to pay brown the Supermax anyways, but I’m very sure he doesn’t really want to be here. You want to build a culture around players who want to be on the same team.

Again man, I get it. Its just Beal doesn't solve an of the issues this team has. He's not good enough to be a #1 offensive engine which is real reason the team struggles in crunch time. He's pretty awful defensively, which gives other teams a place to attack. He's been injured quite a bit the last two years. And he's just as expensive moving forward (he's a 35% max player) so he solves none of the main issues the team actually has. It would just sort of feel like doing something for the sake of doing something. I'm npot sure it makes the team better.

I don't think the teams issue is chemistry. The teams issue is they are shooting under 30% from three, and the heat are shooting 48% from three. And when shots stop falling the C's sort of fall apart.

[Moranis]

Anthony Davis?

[keevsnick]

I think the trade ideas with TOR are interesting.  I would offer this:

Brown and White
for
Siakam and Anunoby

For Toronto, they end up with:

VanVleet
White
Brown
Barnes
Poeltl

A Jaylen Brown for Siakam trade would be really cool for Toronto. Jaylen gives them a different skill-set from their three current forwards of Scottie Barnes, Anunoby and Siakam. Jaylen more of a scorer, a shooter & a one-on-one shot creator. Better able to SG than any of the others.

You could have a cool lineup

G: VanVleet
G: Jaylen
F: S Barnes
F: Anunoby
C: Poeltl

So one guard, three big wings and one center.

Or if as suggested in some of these trades, expand the deal out with Anunoby headed to Boston with Smart or D White headed to Toronto.

Then you could create an excellent three man backcourt:

G: VanVleet, Smart
G: Jaylen

So a small PG in VanVleet with speed, a big wing (SG/SF) in Jaylen and a combo guard in Smart or D White. Guys who can play in any duos next to one another. Toronto could then play S Barnes at SF and bring in someone new to play PF. Toronto could start Otto Porter and keep a big long defensive lineup on the floor as their starting unit or sign someone new in FA to start. 

Or they could start Smart or D White at SG, slide Jaylen to SF and Scottie Barnes to PF and play uptempo run and gun basketball. Especially if you have D White. All 4 of those guys are strong in the open court.

A lot of fun options for the Raptors in either a smaller one for one trade or a bigger two for two trade. I would be inclined to keep Anunoby if I were them.

Edit: I just realized I forgot all about Gary Trent Jr. He would be their team's best shooter and 2nd best scorer after Jaylen. He would play a prominent role. I'd probably start him ahead of Smart or D White because he is a one position player whereas Smart or White are more suited to playing backup PG minutes. Or if Anunoby stays, Trent would be the 6th man with Jaylen sliding over to SF a lot. They'd need a 10-15mpg backup PG. Maybe someone like Pritchard.

G: VanVleet, (Pritchard)
G: Jaylen, Trent Jr
F: S Barnes
F: Anunoby, O Porter
C: Poeltl

Strong start to a team. Solid 7 man rotation. Should be able to nab a solid backup PG. A good backup center would be useful. They can keep using Precious Achiuwa if not. That could be a good 48-52 win team.

Then again, they are not far off a 48-52 win team as is. Jaylen is just a smoother fit for them than Siakam is. It would just be less messy / complicated with Jaylen.

Ehhh i don't know. Lets keep it simple and say its a Brown for Siakam swap. The Raptors were a .500 team this year. I think Brown is both better and fits better in Toronto than Siakam probably does, and having poetl for a full year would help, but re-signing Brown, van Fleet, Gary Trent, Poetl makes that team VERY expensive.  But also, again, they can't extend Brown so they'd BETTER be a 48+ win team or he's a high flight risk and they just lost Siakam for nothing. That's a tough bet to make just to try a different fit.

Also, Both Brown and Siakam have significant reason to do everything they can to kill such a trade. Brown has already qualified for the super max, but if he's traded he loses that. Siakam can qualify for the super max if he makes all nba next year, but again loses that if he's traded. This is a trade that would p--- both guys off, immensely.

Also also: Is Siakam even an upgrade? I'd just rather have Brown. The argument for Siakam seems to be "better positional fit" but our best lineup last year was the two big lineup and Siakam doesn't really fit THAT lineup.

[Vermont Green]

I don't see the need for Beal.  I would have no interest in trading Brown for him.  I would actually rather get Porzingis (assuming we can get him without trading Brown).  Porzingis actually had a better 3P% than Beal last season.  I know that Porzingis has durability issues but they both have played about the same number of games over the last 3 seasons (about 150).  They both averaged 23.2 ppg last season but Porzingis got it with 15.7 fga vs Beal with 17.6 fga.  I am not saying that Porzingis is a better overall player than Beal, but he is closer than most would think, and is a better positional fit for the Celtics

[boscel33]

Anthony Davis?

Old Man Davis?  Pass!

[keevsnick]

As for Portland, it would certainly be an option for them to go after Brown and keep Lillard, but they'd need to feel really good about re-signing Brown in that situation.  If Brown signed off, then I think this trade would make a lot of sense for both teams

Simons, Nurkic, 24 1st (lotto), 26 1st (top 4)

for

Brown, Smart

or

Simons, Nurkic, Knox, Little, 3

for

Brown, Smart, Rob, 35

I think both of those trades make sense for both teams.  Portland would have their best shot at winning with Lillard and Boston gets a potential Brown replacement in Simons and draft capital (in the first) or a guy like Scoot in the 2nd to put together a better foundation around Tatum.

So is Boston rebuilding now? Because a trade for Simons and a bunch of picks feels like something you do when you're rebuilding, not when you are coming off of 5 playoff series wins in two years. Again, why would Boston want to go that direction? The goal would be to then use those pieces I assume to trade for another star down the line but I doubt Boston wants to burn a year or two waiting for that guy to shake free. Not when Brogdon, White, Smart/ Williams, Horford are all under 2/3 year deals. If that's your approach doesn't it make just more sense to re-sign Brown, play out next year or two (and probably be very competitive), then trade him in 24' or 25' if you fall short, rather than this unnecessary middle approach?

Also, you say "if Brown sign's off." But again, he won't, he has no reason to. He has every reason to try and kill any trade this off season so he can get that super max money. Even if he liked Portland, wanted to play with a 33-38 year old Lillard for the next five years, and told Portland all of that he still isn't re-siging until 24' for financial reasons and a lot can change. Its just a huge risk for Portland.

And that's what it comes down too for all these trades. His contract status makes him a risk for teams acquiring him, the supermax makes him FAR LESS of a risk for Boston. That doesn't mean its impossible to trade him. Any of these deals in this thread COULD happen if the other GM has a high enough risk tolerance. Maybe Portland is that team. Seems unlikely.

[DrJasper]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

Why, exactly would the C's trade a younger, better, healthier player for an older, worse, smaller who is more expensive next year and just as expensive going forward? I mean the simple act of swapping Jaylens 30 million dollar contract next year for Beal's 47 million dollar contract would add tens of millions of dolllars in tax payment to the c's books next year. Its not going to happen, if it did one of the other core players would need to go out just to balance the books.

Its a hard no.

I understand where you’re coming from, but here are my thoughts:

This core has reached its peak, and running it back would mean that you trust this core to leave these soft emotional breakdowns behind them and suddenly become different players.
You’re purely looking at it from a business perspective, but championship teams have more than talented players on good contracts, which is what we saw the last two years.
Beal is 29, so it’s not like we’re trading for and old player, he is a good fit with Tatum on the court and off the court, he is a leader and he’s is tough mentally. In addition we get a talented player on a rookie contract with #8 to balance out the money difference. We would have to pay brown the Supermax anyways, but I’m very sure he doesn’t really want to be here. You want to build a culture around players who want to be on the same team.

Again man, I get it. Its just Beal doesn't solve an of the issues this team has. He's not good enough to be a #1 offensive engine which is real reason the team struggles in crunch time. He's pretty awful defensively, which gives other teams a place to attack. He's been injured quite a bit the last two years. And he's just as expensive moving forward (he's a 35% max player) so he solves none of the main issues the team actually has. It would just sort of feel like doing something for the sake of doing something. I'm npot sure it makes the team better.

I don't think the teams issue is chemistry. The teams issue is they are shooting under 30% from three, and the heat are shooting 48% from three. And when shots stop falling the C's sort of fall apart.

It just feels like when we are thinking about trades we only think about numbers and talent, when we just saw that it's also a lot about culture, leadership  and team chemistry which would all be plus points for beal and tatum. Listen to bradley beal talk sometime, he's much more of a leader than brown. And also hes probably the only B star that would have the authority to hold tatum accountable