Why Jaylen Brown is not getting traded this coming year

[DrJasper]

Just a thought that I also had just now. If the Wizards are scared brown might leave maybe we can make it a three team trade with Trae young going to Washington and Brown going home to Atlanta. I think all teams would benefit from this deal

[Vermont Green]

I think the trade ideas with TOR are interesting.  I would offer this:

Brown and White
for
Siakam and Anunoby

This would give us a really big starting group:

Smart
Brogdon
Tatum
Siakam
RWill

Pritchard, Anunoby, Horford, Grant, Hauser, Gallinari

For Toronto, they end up with:

VanVleet
White
Brown
Barnes
Poeltl

This deal fulfills my criteria of getting an all star level big (Siakam) for Brown to better balance the the roster.  Anunoby over White is more size and versatility.  It is still tough to give up Brown, but this feels like a fair trade.  Not sure if this is the perfect trade, but it is something close.  I know many would rather give up Smart over White, and I get that, I just can't get the second half of last season for White out of my head.  He missed so many shots.  But I would be open to that version of the trade also.  It is interesting that Brogdon-White was a better pair in the regular season but Brogdon-Smart was much better in the playoffs (by +/-).

[DrJasper]

Just a thought that I also had just now. If the Wizards are scared brown might leave maybe we can make it a three team trade with Trae young going to Washington and Brown going home to Atlanta. I think all teams would benefit from this deal

Hawks: Murray/Bogdanovic/Brown/Collins/Capela

Wizards: Trae/Kispert/Kuzma/Avdija/Porzingis

Celtics: Smart/Beal/Tatum/Horford/Williams

[Who]

Just a thought that I also had just now. If the Wizards are scared brown might leave maybe we can make it a three team trade with Trae young going to Washington and Brown going home to Atlanta. I think all teams would benefit from this deal

That is a pretty sweet trade for Washington. I'd do that in a heartbeat. Trae Young is much younger than Beal and they are going nowhere anytime soon with Beal on the roster. Better to regroup with the younger star.

Also a straight swap of Beal for Trae (if no Jaylen in the deal) would be interesting for Atlanta. Allows Dejounte Murray to move back to PG. Brings in a legit SG and shooter in Beal. No more 2 PG backcourt with both guys getting in each other's way. Love that for Atlanta. Also like Jaylen over Trae for ATL for the same reason. Better roster balance.

[greg683x]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

[DrJasper]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

[greg683x]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

Beals biggest problem has always been availability though and that ain’t going away, in fact it’ll probably get worse.  I’d rather just keep Brown unless he’s demanding to leave

[keevsnick]

The Wiz would LOVE the idea of getting rid of Beals contract, it gets talked about on a regular basis around here.  They want to hit the reset button bad in Washington

I’m starting to feel like this could be a rare trade where everybody involved wins.
Brown gets to play for his hometown team, Beal gets to play with his “little brother” Tatum and vice versa, the Celtics safe face by doing good by brown getting Beal and a lottery pick, the wizards get out from Beals contract and can restart fresh with Trae who’s under contract for many years, and Trae… I guess he gets a fresh start as well 

Why, exactly would the C's trade a younger, better, healthier player for an older, worse, smaller who is more expensive next year and just as expensive going forward? I mean the simple act of swapping Jaylens 30 million dollar contract next year for Beal's 47 million dollar contract would add tens of millions of dolllars in tax payment to the c's books next year. Its not going to happen, if it did one of the other core players would need to go out just to balance the books.

Its a hard no.

[keevsnick]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too

Okay, this is another good example. Why would TOR do this deal? I think brown is a little better than Siakam for sure, although OG is probably a little better than Smart. Lets say this deal makes Toronto slightly better. But whats that get them? They were a play in team this year, maybe this gets them back in the play in as a 7th or 8th seed? Great. That's not a situation Toronto is going to feel great about getting Jaylen to re-sign into.

And for the C's the big issue is the defacto-hard cap moving forward. So the solution to that is.... get even more expensive? You save a little money giving Siakam a 30% max vs the Jaylen 35% max, but then you have to pay OG who is likely going to make a good deal more than Smart. I find it hard to believe the C's would trade Brown for two guys on 1 year deals (super risky) rather than just offer him the super max. The financial stuff becomes an even bigger issue!

Again, if a team is going to trade for Jaylen with 1 year left on his deal it needs to be a team that is winning next year (so they can convince him to stay), ideally in a market he'd want to be in. They'd need to be comfortable enough with the deal that they'd be okay risking him leaving, which likely means the c's aren't getting enough back. That's the issue. 

Toronto was a .500 team because they had literally no big men until a last-minute acquisition of Poeltl. Their win-pace bumped up to 45 after that move. Add in Brown and Smart instead of Siakam and Anunoby, which will give them some balance and more shooting, and I think they jump up to a 48 win team. So, the 5th seed. If they make a good hiring choice and are able to get someone like Monty Williams, that could be even higher.

That is why.

Well they'd better, because if they don't Brown has no real reason to stay and they lose Siakam and OG for basically nothing. Which is why they wont do it.

[keevsnick]

I think the one x factor, the one unknown, is what Brown is saying behind the scenes. I think a lot of these trades are just complete non-starters for the other teams due to Brown's contract, but maybe if there are talks Brown reassures other team(s) he'd be willing to re-sign there and that makes a team or team(s) more confident. Hard to say what he wants.

I'd kind of doubt it, because if he's traded he loses the ability to sign the supermax. If he's going to get traded its better for it to be summer of 24 than this summer for him. But maybe he does just hate Boston and wants out.

[greg683x]

I think the one x factor, the one unknown, is what Brown is saying behind the scenes. I think a lot of these trades are just complete non-starters for the other teams due to Brown's contract, but maybe if there are talks Brown reassures other team(s) he'd be willing to re-sign there and that makes a team or team(s) more confident. Hard to say what he wants.

I'd kind of doubt it, because if he's traded he loses the ability to sign the supermax. If he's going to get traded its better for it to be summer of 24 than this summer for him. But maybe he does just hate Boston and wants out.

What scares me is if Brown secretly decides now that he’s going to demand a trade NEXT summer.  So he’d essentially being playing a lame duck season next year, kind of like Kyrie.  Depending on his attitude and professionalism, that could essentially kill next season.

[BASS_THUMPER]

who wanna pay dat...?





*sippin*

[Moranis]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too

Okay, this is another good example. Why would TOR do this deal? I think brown is a little better than Siakam for sure, although OG is probably a little better than Smart. Lets say this deal makes Toronto slightly better. But whats that get them? They were a play in team this year, maybe this gets them back in the play in as a 7th or 8th seed? Great. That's not a situation Toronto is going to feel great about getting Jaylen to re-sign into.

And for the C's the big issue is the defacto-hard cap moving forward. So the solution to that is.... get even more expensive? You save a little money giving Siakam a 30% max vs the Jaylen 35% max, but then you have to pay OG who is likely going to make a good deal more than Smart. I find it hard to believe the C's would trade Brown for two guys on 1 year deals (super risky) rather than just offer him the super max. The financial stuff becomes an even bigger issue!

Again, if a team is going to trade for Jaylen with 1 year left on his deal it needs to be a team that is winning next year (so they can convince him to stay), ideally in a market he'd want to be in. They'd need to be comfortable enough with the deal that they'd be okay risking him leaving, which likely means the c's aren't getting enough back. That's the issue. 

Toronto was a .500 team because they had literally no big men until a last-minute acquisition of Poeltl. Their win-pace bumped up to 45 after that move. Add in Brown and Smart instead of Siakam and Anunoby, which will give them some balance and more shooting, and I think they jump up to a 48 win team. So, the 5th seed. If they make a good hiring choice and are able to get someone like Monty Williams, that could be even higher.

That is why.

Well they'd better, because if they don't Brown has no real reason to stay and they lose Siakam and OG for basically nothing. Which is why they wont do it.

Siakam can leave anyway.  He only has 1 year left as well.  Smart has the longest contract in that trade.  I think both Boston and Toronto would get better in that trade.  Brown is a better fit with Barnes than either Siakam or OG and they need someone like Smart in the backcourt to compensate for VanVleet's awful defense.  While Boston has White to fill in for Smart and adds two long lengthy defenders and an excellent #2 option at PF next to Tatum. 

I like this Boston team a lot

White, Brogdon, Tatum, Siakam, Rob - OG, Grant, Al, Hauser, PP - Gallo, Muscala, Kornet

That team has a lot more balance and positionally makes a lot more sense. 


I also like the new Toronto squad

Smart, Trent, Brown, Barnes, Poeltl - VanVleet, Boucher, 13, Young, Porter - Flynn, Wilson, Precious

Brown moves full time to his natural SF position where he can be the #1 option, VanVleet gets to be the super offensive sub off the bench, and most importantly Barnes gets the best opportunity to fulfill his potential.  Good size and athleticism in the starting unit.  That is probably a 50 win team. 

[Moranis]

As for Portland, it would certainly be an option for them to go after Brown and keep Lillard, but they'd need to feel really good about re-signing Brown in that situation.  If Brown signed off, then I think this trade would make a lot of sense for both teams

Simons, Nurkic, 24 1st (lotto), 26 1st (top 4)

for

Brown, Smart

or

Simons, Nurkic, Knox, Little, 3

for

Brown, Smart, Rob, 35

I think both of those trades make sense for both teams.  Portland would have their best shot at winning with Lillard and Boston gets a potential Brown replacement in Simons and draft capital (in the first) or a guy like Scoot in the 2nd to put together a better foundation around Tatum.

[Who]

I am not convinced by Siakam as a #2.

He hasn't had one whole season of scoring efficiently since he expanded his offensive role after Kawhi left. He has been average to below average efficiency wise ever since.

Siakam was only scoring 16ppg next to Kawhi and while that was an efficient 16ppg in the regular season, that same efficiency cratered in the post-season. And would Siakam ever go back to being a 16-17ppg guy after being a 22-24ppg guy? I imagine you would have about the same chance of convincing Jaylen Brown to do likewise - next to no chance.

Siakam's main value offensively is his passing rather than his scoring but that comes in combination with high volume shot attempts. So give with one hand, take with the other.

--------------------------

Furthermore, I feel his offensive numbers are artificially pumped up / increased by his role over the last two years. He has played many minutes as a small ball center where he has a huge advantage over whoever guards him in terms of speed and being able to get to the basket. This has allowed him to boost his scoring totals, scoring efficiency & his assist numbers. This ability to play center has not been a good option for Toronto but more one out of desperation because of their complete lack of a center until acquiring Poeltl and he only plays 27mpg. Instead, they have sacrificed their defense & rebounding to boost their offense.

Unfortunately, the boost is rather small compared to the losses on D so it is not a good option for most teams. You would only use it sparingly unless completely desperate which the Raptors were. So individual benefit to play but negative losses for the team. So this is not something you want to continue moving forward so we should expect Siakam's production to drop off / decrease when he loses those small ball center minutes.

--------------------------------

Siakam is a mediocre jump-shooter = worse than Jaylen. Both from 3 but especially from 2. He doesn't spread the floor or play all that well off the ball.

-------------------------------

When Siakam played his best basketball, most efficient basketball, in Toronto next to Kawhi and on that Championship team there were other significant factors that boosted his efficiency.

They had strong team passing with strong guard play from Lowry and high post facilitator in Marc Gasol. When Gasol did not play, Serge Ibaka played as a stretch five. This is key to understanding Siakam.

Siakam does not play well as a creator / ball-handler. He is his most efficient cutting to the basket off the ball & looking for quick post ups inside. These are his most efficient scoring opportunities in terms of self-creation in the half-court.

He was able to get these when he played next to Gasol and Ibaka. When you replace those perimeter bigs with interior bigs (like Rob Williams), there is no longer space for Siakam to get a large number of touches inside for high efficiency scores which forced him to rely instead on perimeter scoring & drives which are less efficient for him. He is only a mediocre jump-shooter and a solid but unexceptional slasher.

To make the most out of Siakam, you have to commit to pairing him with players who will vacate the paint. The primary reason is for cutting and post ups. The secondary reason is to make more space for his drives which he ain't great at and needs help to do.

You do not want to pair him with low skilled bigs because then his lack of skill shows up more. We have an issue here with Rob Williams and second issue with Al Horford who is aging out of the team in the near future.