Why Jaylen Brown is not getting traded this coming year

[Moranis]

hes not getting traded because GM's don't overreact to a bad playoff series to determine a players future and make dumb irrational emotional decisions that fans make.

this season is and playoffs is on mazzulla

Sure but there are 6 uears of Boston being better with Brown not playing..  his on/off differential per 100 possessions has always been terrible.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact wins and losses for Boston and he never has.  I've gone through why countless times on this board but in short he isn't a good fit with Tatum because while he doe kost things well, he has no elite skills and he is worse than Tatum at basically everything.  The team does better with an elite shooter or much better play maker playing in Brown's role. Those player compliment and enhance Tatum, while Brown does not.

They were literally better with him on the court than off the court just last year! And actually the year before that too! (According to cleaning the glass net rating). Admittedly he's been up and down in that regard, there were years like his third year (where he got benched) where he was bad, and the number was bad this year as well. I think he impacts winning. not as much as Tatum to be sure, but he has skills good teams need. You trade Brown, immediately you are looking for a guy with similar skills to replace him.

Brown's on/off differential per 100 possessions for this season was -3.8.  He was +5.4 last year, but has been negative overall and more seasons than not.  However, every season outside of his rookie year he has been negative in the playoffs (and many way into the negative).  Brown missed 15 games, Boston went 11-4, which translates to 60.13333 wins, which of course is better than the 56.2985 win pace with him. That is also right in line with his entire time in Boston.

Brown quite simply doesn't move the needle for Boston where wins and losses are concerned.  He just isn't impactful to the standings for Boston.  He is just too duplicative and not as good as Tatum, who actually plays better when Brown doesn't play (shooting better, passing more, etc). Tatum drives the wins and losses for the Celtics and he has since he was a rookie and Tatum just doesn't play as well with Brown playing next to him.

The numbers have borne this out for years, yet I'm the crazy person every time I point it out.

[keevsnick]

So many of these seem like lateral moves (at best), lateral moves I'm not even sure either team would do. If you're so fed up with this team that you're fine with a lateral move then i get it, but I think that's significantly more likely to happen after Brown re-signs this off season, a year passes, and he's trade eligible again.

Like the coach was a rookie who didn't even have an off-season to implement his system. Your all defense center played like 30 games. Smart was clearly off/hurt all year, both Tatum and Brown had their worst 3 point shooting years of their career, and you are ultimately losing in the ECF's because the Heat are shooting 48% from three.

I don't know, clean some stuff up I think you can contend next year without too many changes. The team has to find a way to generate offense when threes aren't falling, and get back their defense first identity.

[boscel33]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If Houston signs Harden, Brown for Green and the #4 makes a ton of sense (suspect more $ need to be traded, not sure).  Remember, I keep talking about how close Brown and Ime were.

Where there's smoke......

It makes almost zero sense! Brown goes to a team that absolutely sucked last year, a team he has no reason to re-sign with. You think Brown is going to be jumping at a chance to re-up long term with a 34 year old fat James Harden, who mostly just misses Houston's strip clubs?

So, that being the case, you really think Houston is going all in on a guy they have a high chance of losing in a year?

And I will say it again: If questionable shot selection and defensiveness lapses bother you, you will tear your hair out watching Jalen Green. He's all the worst parts of Brown, without the good stuff. I like his upside a lot, I think he might be VERY good one day, but thats a tough bet to make.

There's room for growth.  Look at their second seasons side by side:

https://stathead.com/tiny/9q6t2

"If the opportunity to land another marquee star—Fischer noted the Boston Celtics' Jaylen Brown has been one of the "most public supporters" of new head coach Ime Udoka—then Houston has to at least consider the idea and ponder the cost. Green would presumably be one of the pieces a trade suitor would request."

[cman88]

People on this board have a weird obsession with mediocre players on other teams.

[RMO]

Is he still eligible for the supermax if he gets traded?

[keevsnick]

hes not getting traded because GM's don't overreact to a bad playoff series to determine a players future and make dumb irrational emotional decisions that fans make.

this season is and playoffs is on mazzulla

Sure but there are 6 uears of Boston being better with Brown not playing..  his on/off differential per 100 possessions has always been terrible.  Brown quite simply doesn't impact wins and losses for Boston and he never has.  I've gone through why countless times on this board but in short he isn't a good fit with Tatum because while he doe kost things well, he has no elite skills and he is worse than Tatum at basically everything.  The team does better with an elite shooter or much better play maker playing in Brown's role. Those player compliment and enhance Tatum, while Brown does not.

They were literally better with him on the court than off the court just last year! And actually the year before that too! (According to cleaning the glass net rating). Admittedly he's been up and down in that regard, there were years like his third year (where he got benched) where he was bad, and the number was bad this year as well. I think he impacts winning. not as much as Tatum to be sure, but he has skills good teams need. You trade Brown, immediately you are looking for a guy with similar skills to replace him.

Brown's on/off differential per 100 possessions for this season was -3.8.  He was +5.4 last year, but has been negative overall and more seasons than not.  However, every season outside of his rookie year he has been negative in the playoffs (and many way into the negative).  Brown missed 15 games, Boston went 11-4, which translates to 60.13333 wins, which of course is better than the 56.2985 win pace with him. That is also right in line with his entire time in Boston.

Brown quite simply doesn't move the needle for Boston where wins and losses are concerned.  He just isn't impactful to the standings for Boston.  He is just too duplicative and not as good as Tatum, who actually plays better when Brown doesn't play (shooting better, passing more, etc). Tatum drives the wins and losses for the Celtics and he has since he was a rookie and Tatum just doesn't play as well with Brown playing next to him.

The numbers have borne this out for years, yet I'm the crazy person every time I point it out.

If you remove the rookie year, when of course the numbers sucks, its pretty mixed bag. Two very good years, two middle of the pack years, two somewhat bad years. But also: The team was VERY good a lot of those years with some pretty good benches some of those years, being somewhat negative on a still very good team when you are a starter going against other teams starters isn't some huge indictment. I just think it's very clearly more nuisanced then "Jaylen Brown isn't a winning player." I don't think you're crazy, there is certainly SOME truth here, I just think you're over indexing on advanced stats and overstating the case slightly.

And that's before we get into a broader discussion of how much weight advanced metric should have, and the fact that on/off net rating doesn't REALLY measure your impact on winning, at least not strictly speaking. But ya, advanced stats have never loved the guy. On the other hand three different coaches have felt he's worth playing 40+ minutes a game in high leverage series.

Also: I care exactly zero percent about a 15 game win loss record. 7 of those wins were against teams CHA and Detroit, who were actively trying to lose. Weird quirks like that pop up in team win/loss record over small samples. The 76ers had a GREAT record without Embiid, the literal league MVP. The Grizz have a better record without Ja. With stuff happens. We shouldn't put too much stock into stuff like that, its just not that useful.

Look, i think you can have a discussion about Brown's impact on winning. I would also rather he had the advanced metrics of Tatum. But also I completely disagree with the "Tatum and Brown don't fit" stuff. Like I think that's just garbage.  They team is AWESOME when they are both playing well, almost literally unbeatable. There's no real reason you can't have two high USG guys, almost every team does. They have significant individual success, significant team success (for guys their age). Are they somewhat duplicative? In some ways maybe. But those are skills you need duplicates off. Like I'm not sure I can see a reason why these guys shouldn't work together, and they have worked together just fine.

Its possible the c's can find someone who is a better fit than Tatum, impacts winning more, ect. But the point of this post is that because of contract reasons they are very unlikely to be able to use Jaylen Brown to do that this off-season. That's likely a 2024 question. I'm largely fine giving the partnership at least one more year.

[cman88]

Is he still eligible for the supermax if he gets traded?

No he isn't.

[keevsnick]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If Houston signs Harden, Brown for Green and the #4 makes a ton of sense (suspect more $ need to be traded, not sure).  Remember, I keep talking about how close Brown and Ime were.

Where there's smoke......

It makes almost zero sense! Brown goes to a team that absolutely sucked last year, a team he has no reason to re-sign with. You think Brown is going to be jumping at a chance to re-up long term with a 34 year old fat James Harden, who mostly just misses Houston's strip clubs?

So, that being the case, you really think Houston is going all in on a guy they have a high chance of losing in a year?

And I will say it again: If questionable shot selection and defensiveness lapses bother you, you will tear your hair out watching Jalen Green. He's all the worst parts of Brown, without the good stuff. I like his upside a lot, I think he might be VERY good one day, but thats a tough bet to make.

There's room for growth.  Look at their second seasons side by side:

https://stathead.com/tiny/9q6t2

"If the opportunity to land another marquee star—Fischer noted the Boston Celtics' Jaylen Brown has been one of the "most public supporters" of new head coach Ime Udoka—then Houston has to at least consider the idea and ponder the cost. Green would presumably be one of the pieces a trade suitor would request."

Yes, Jalen Brown and Jaylen green in year two have similarish stats.

But Brown is now in year 7, and I don't think Tatum wants to wait five years for green to catch up.  There's a reason you don't see competitive teams flipping established vets  for young guys.

[Moranis]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If Houston signs Harden, Brown for Green and the #4 makes a ton of sense (suspect more $ need to be traded, not sure).  Remember, I keep talking about how close Brown and Ime were.

Where there's smoke......

It makes almost zero sense! Brown goes to a team that absolutely sucked last year, a team he has no reason to re-sign with. You think Brown is going to be jumping at a chance to re-up long term with a 34 year old fat James Harden, who mostly just misses Houston's strip clubs?

So, that being the case, you really think Houston is going all in on a guy they have a high chance of losing in a year?

And I will say it again: If questionable shot selection and defensiveness lapses bother you, you will tear your hair out watching Jalen Green. He's all the worst parts of Brown, without the good stuff. I like his upside a lot, I think he might be VERY good one day, but thats a tough bet to make.

There's room for growth.  Look at their second seasons side by side:

https://stathead.com/tiny/9q6t2

"If the opportunity to land another marquee star—Fischer noted the Boston Celtics' Jaylen Brown has been one of the "most public supporters" of new head coach Ime Udoka—then Houston has to at least consider the idea and ponder the cost. Green would presumably be one of the pieces a trade suitor would request."

Yes, Jalen Brown and Jaylen green in year two have similarish stats.

But Brown is now in year 7, and I don't think Tatum wants to wait five years for green to catch up.  There's a reason you don't see competitive teams flipping established vets  for young guys.

Green averaged basically 22/4/4.  Brown has never averaged that many assists and didn't hit that scoring mark until year 5 (Green is also much better at getting to the line already than Brown has ever been). Brown is a much better defender, shooter, and rebounder and obviously is in his prime, but Green has shown significantly more potential than Brown did at similar experience (Green also entered the league a year younger). 

Green might have more of an impact immediately than Brown does because of the passing, shot creation, and foul generation.  That is a lot of what Boston lacks and thus Green could come immediately and have an effect.

[RMO]

Is he still eligible for the supermax if he gets traded?

No he isn't.

That's something that concerns me.  How it would resonate with other players if the Celtics either didn't offer him the supermax or traded him and made him ineligible for it.  I could see the spin that this is how the Celtics cost him a lot of money and this is how they treat someone who has given so much to them and blah blah blah.  Then we go back to that narrative of free agents not wanting to sign with the Celtics because of the history of how they treat their players (Isaiah Thomas another one).

Not saying the Celtics should sign him to it just because of this (nor am I saying they shouldn't).  Just that these things will need to be considered.

[boscel33]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If Houston signs Harden, Brown for Green and the #4 makes a ton of sense (suspect more $ need to be traded, not sure).  Remember, I keep talking about how close Brown and Ime were.

Where there's smoke......

It makes almost zero sense! Brown goes to a team that absolutely sucked last year, a team he has no reason to re-sign with. You think Brown is going to be jumping at a chance to re-up long term with a 34 year old fat James Harden, who mostly just misses Houston's strip clubs?

So, that being the case, you really think Houston is going all in on a guy they have a high chance of losing in a year?

And I will say it again: If questionable shot selection and defensiveness lapses bother you, you will tear your hair out watching Jalen Green. He's all the worst parts of Brown, without the good stuff. I like his upside a lot, I think he might be VERY good one day, but thats a tough bet to make.

There's room for growth.  Look at their second seasons side by side:

https://stathead.com/tiny/9q6t2

"If the opportunity to land another marquee star—Fischer noted the Boston Celtics' Jaylen Brown has been one of the "most public supporters" of new head coach Ime Udoka—then Houston has to at least consider the idea and ponder the cost. Green would presumably be one of the pieces a trade suitor would request."

Yes, Jalen Brown and Jaylen green in year two have similarish stats.

But Brown is now in year 7, and I don't think Tatum wants to wait five years for green to catch up.  There's a reason you don't see competitive teams flipping established vets  for young guys.

First Green is horrible, oh yeah, but his and JB's stats are similar.  Now it's his age. 

I see a ball player, that might have more playmaking skills than JB (BTW, let's not forget, I'm one of the larger JB fans on the board).  "About Green:  He sees the floor well and knows when to move the ball. Has some point guard skills and is much more than just a scorer."

Maybe the youngster would fit nicely with Tatum in the Hayward type role. 

If Houston sends the #4 also, lot's you can do with it.

[jpotter33]

So many of these seem like lateral moves (at best), lateral moves I'm not even sure either team would do. If you're so fed up with this team that you're fine with a lateral move then i get it, but I think that's significantly more likely to happen after Brown re-signs this off season, a year passes, and he's trade eligible again.

Like the coach was a rookie who didn't even have an off-season to implement his system. Your all defense center played like 30 games. Smart was clearly off/hurt all year, both Tatum and Brown had their worst 3 point shooting years of their career, and you are ultimately losing in the ECF's because the Heat are shooting 48% from three.

I don't know, clean some stuff up I think you can contend next year without too many changes. The team has to find a way to generate offense when threes aren't falling, and get back their defense first identity.

I think your trust in Joe to figure this out is much higher than the rest of us. I have no confidence whatsoever that even more time to implement his system would help. His system feels flawed and too reliant on jumpshooting for this team, let alone too focused away from defense.

I’m also to the point that I think the core of the Jays and Smart has run its course. There’s just not enough ball-handling and playmaking there with JB being below average for a star and JT being average for a superstar level player. I’m fine with keeping the Jays together given the context of JB’s contract and little ability to improve upon him, but you have to get a better playmaker/point guard to go with them. Think we have to package some players and upgrade there moving forward.

[keevsnick]

So many of these seem like lateral moves (at best), lateral moves I'm not even sure either team would do. If you're so fed up with this team that you're fine with a lateral move then i get it, but I think that's significantly more likely to happen after Brown re-signs this off season, a year passes, and he's trade eligible again.

Like the coach was a rookie who didn't even have an off-season to implement his system. Your all defense center played like 30 games. Smart was clearly off/hurt all year, both Tatum and Brown had their worst 3 point shooting years of their career, and you are ultimately losing in the ECF's because the Heat are shooting 48% from three.

I don't know, clean some stuff up I think you can contend next year without too many changes. The team has to find a way to generate offense when threes aren't falling, and get back their defense first identity.

I think your trust in Joe to figure this out is much higher than the rest of us. I have no confidence whatsoever that even more time to implement his system would help. His system feels flawed and too reliant on jumpshooting for this team, let alone too focused away from defense.

I’m also to the point that I think the core of the Jays and Smart has run its course. There’s just not enough ball-handling and playmaking there with JB being below average for a star and JT being average for a superstar level player. I’m fine with keeping the Jays together given the context of JB’s contract and little ability to improve upon him, but you have to get a better playmaker/point guard to go with them. Think we have to package some players and upgrade there moving forward.

They were literally a 6 minutes stretch in the 4th quarter at home away from going up 3-1 on a dynasty warriors team.

I guess my thing is I'm a lot more reluctant than most people to go away from a formula that got that close. Winning the title is hard, there's a lot more downside to a change to the core than i think most people want to believe.

 I don't really believe in Joe, I'd would have kept the interim tag on him all year and seen how it plays out. But i don't think they are firing him after just one year so I'm not really sure there's much to be done about that. Just have to hope he develops as a coach. But i'm mostly with you on not loving what I saw this year.

[keevsnick]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If Houston signs Harden, Brown for Green and the #4 makes a ton of sense (suspect more $ need to be traded, not sure).  Remember, I keep talking about how close Brown and Ime were.

Where there's smoke......

It makes almost zero sense! Brown goes to a team that absolutely sucked last year, a team he has no reason to re-sign with. You think Brown is going to be jumping at a chance to re-up long term with a 34 year old fat James Harden, who mostly just misses Houston's strip clubs?

So, that being the case, you really think Houston is going all in on a guy they have a high chance of losing in a year?

And I will say it again: If questionable shot selection and defensiveness lapses bother you, you will tear your hair out watching Jalen Green. He's all the worst parts of Brown, without the good stuff. I like his upside a lot, I think he might be VERY good one day, but thats a tough bet to make.

There's room for growth.  Look at their second seasons side by side:

https://stathead.com/tiny/9q6t2

"If the opportunity to land another marquee star—Fischer noted the Boston Celtics' Jaylen Brown has been one of the "most public supporters" of new head coach Ime Udoka—then Houston has to at least consider the idea and ponder the cost. Green would presumably be one of the pieces a trade suitor would request."

Yes, Jalen Brown and Jaylen green in year two have similarish stats.

But Brown is now in year 7, and I don't think Tatum wants to wait five years for green to catch up.  There's a reason you don't see competitive teams flipping established vets  for young guys.

Green averaged basically 22/4/4.  Brown has never averaged that many assists and didn't hit that scoring mark until year 5 (Green is also much better at getting to the line already than Brown has ever been). Brown is a much better defender, shooter, and rebounder and obviously is in his prime, but Green has shown significantly more potential than Brown did at similar experience (Green also entered the league a year younger). 

Green might have more of an impact immediately than Brown does because of the passing, shot creation, and foul generation.  That is a lot of what Boston lacks and thus Green could come immediately and have an effect.

League offense is so much higher now vs then, and although Green scores a lot more he's less efficient at doing so. He had a 53.8% TS this year, against a league average of like 58% or so vs Jaylen who had a 56.2% TS against a 56% league average his second year.   

Really tho I'm not sure there's a lot of value in comparing the two directly, given the dramatically different team situations of the two. I don't know how Green would fare in allow USG situation, like what Jaylen Brown had in his year 1-3. I don't know what brown would have looked like in a higher USG role in years 1-3.

If your whole thing is "Brown doesn't impact winning" i just really don't get why you'd want to trade him for Green. Green might, in the future, be a very impactful player. I like his upside. But he's unlikely to be all that helpful next year in my opinion, and the c's are in a title window.

Also, I'm not sure Jalen Green is not better right now at shot creation or passing. Pretty similar turnover rate, pretty similar assist rate even as the primary ball handler, much lower TS%. he might one day be better at all those things, but he isn't RIGHT NOW. The c's are trying to win RIGHT NOW. He does get to the line a little more. I'll give you that. 

[cman88]

Is he still eligible for the supermax if he gets traded?

No he isn't.

That's something that concerns me.  How it would resonate with other players if the Celtics either didn't offer him the supermax or traded him and made him ineligible for it.  I could see the spin that this is how the Celtics cost him a lot of money and this is how they treat someone who has given so much to them and blah blah blah.  Then we go back to that narrative of free agents not wanting to sign with the Celtics because of the history of how they treat their players (Isaiah Thomas another one).

Not saying the Celtics should sign him to it just because of this (nor am I saying they shouldn't).  Just that these things will need to be considered.

they will offer him the supermax. there is only downside to not offering it to him. and upside to offering it to him.

1. trading a player on an expiring contract - Teams NEVER get value back. so basically you would trade brown for lesser players. and if they don't work out you handicapped yourself. teams will NOT give up value when they dont know if a player is going to re-sign at the end of the year. see the Kyrie trade. unless you think guys like dinwiddie are the answer...

2. You can offer brown the supermax, and trade him when hes eligible. maybe he takes another jump and is the answer. Or he isnt, then you can trade a star with 4-5 years on their contract. Teams will be much more likely to give up other assets/picks etc. to trade for a guy with years on his deal.

all these threads are is over-reactions to what is happening. If any of the scenarios in this thread happened. People would look at that person as the worst GM of all time