Why Jaylen Brown is not getting traded this coming year

[keevsnick]

I've seen a lot of posts calling for Jaylen Brown to be traded. I'm sorry to disappoint everyone but there is 0% chance that is happening. The reason is a bit nerdy, but here it is:

Contract reasons. Jaylen Brown makes roughly 30 million a year, extensions for NBA veterans are limited by the CBA. In Browns case he'll be limited to 140% of his salary. Now, that SHOULD be just enough to get him to his 30% max contract. The issue is that any extension needs to carry over incentives, and Browns contract is full of incentives for games played, all star, team succes, ect. That means any extension he signs will not really be a max, it will have a bunch of non-guaranteed incentives. If Brown waits until 2024 he can instead sign a fully guaranteed max. He's not signing any extension.

But even besides that, Brown would have zero reason to sign an extension with any team he's traded to even if he COULD get a full max extension. If he's traded he is no longer eligible for the Super Max contract. The difference between what a team he's traded to can offer him over four years, vs what any other team can offer him over four years, is relatively minor. The team with his bird rights can offer him 4/192, any other team can offer him 4/184. The team he's traded to can offer him an extra year, but the money over the first 4 years is only 8 million different. There's very little reason to attach himself to whatever team would acquire him when he could wait a year and pick his own team.

So, Jaylen is basically not going to extend to any he's traded too, which craters his market. Nobody is giving up fair value for a guy that is a huge flight risk after one season.

This is why Brown needed to make All-NBA. Because otherwise the c's would have no way to extend him. Making all-nba allows them to offer him between 30% and 35% of the cap, without having to follow normal extension rules. None of those pesky non guarantees, and a lot more money. There's essentially no reason for Brown not to sign the supermax, he isn't getting more money waiting and would in fact be leaving about 40 million on the table (224 through first 4 years, 184 signing with another team) if he decided he wanted to leave. But again, to be clear, this only applies to the Celtics. If he's trade, no supermax. No other team can offer it.

What's going to happen is this: The c's will offer him the super max. He will sign it. When he does he can't be traded for a year. The c's will make some changes around Tatum/Brown next year and see how it goes. If things look terrible next year they can then trade Brown and get back closer to fair value for a guy under contract, if that's the direction they decide to go.

Keep in mind: All of this is completely separate from whether you even think, from a basketball standpoint, they should trade him. I'm not convinced of that. One rough shooting series from Tatum last year didn't move me, one rough shooting series form Brown this year doesn't either. But regardless of your basketball opinion, from a purely value standpoint they really can't.

[Moranis]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility. 

[keevsnick]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I think the fact that those are the best you could come up with, and none of them make any real sense, probably proves my point.

Like the Blazers for Lillard thing is exactly what I'm talking about. 0% chance a team that is going to suck next year trades their star, under contract, for a guy who is not resigning. The NOP pelicans deal has the same problem. Brown isn't resigning with that franchise. Small markets teams aren't taking that risk. It's the type of deal that doesn't happen for the very reason I just outlined. Sacramento same issue, maybe you can argue that since that team may actually be good it would be different but I don't think the C's would consider a Brown for Sabonis trade an upgrade given Sabonis was unplayable against GSW.

The Houston thing is horrible the other way. Like Boston, a team trying to compete, isn't swapping an All-NBA wing for Jalen Green, a guy who is an actively bad basketball player right now. I like his potential, but a team in contention isn't doing that deal. The GSW deal is similarly awful for the c's. You don't trade a 26 yera old all-nba guy for a 33 year old with one year left on his deal and two guys who couldn't even get minutes for the GSW in the playoffs this year. Celtics get worse, don't solve the cap issue, get more injury prone.

Like all of these are either A) Not happening because the other team is afraid of his contract issue or B) Would happen but only because its so good for the other team that they would risk it, but that probably means the c's are getting screwed.

[Muzzy66]

Keep in mind: All of this is completely separate from whether you even think, from a basketball standpoint, they should trade him. I'm not convinced of that. One rough shooting series from Tatum last year didn't move me, one rough shooting series form Brown this year doesn't either. But regardless of your basketball opinion, from a purely value standpoint they really can't.

I'm not entertaining the idea of trading him because of one rough shooting series. 

By reason for entertaining the idea is this this is really first time I've felt the Celtics were truly in a perfect position to push for a championship.  Past years there have always been fair justifications for falling short.  This year Smart played well, the team was healthy, Timelord was healthy, we had great play from our bench, Tatum and Brown both have reached All-NBA status - it feels like if there was such thing as a "maxed out" Tatum/Brown Celtics season, this season was it.

They had the top record in the league for most of the regular season (pretty much top 2 all year).  They had Tatum and Brown both playing at superstar levels throughout the season.  They had the near perfect roster built around those two stars.  They had pretty much perfect health throughout the playoffs.   This was about as close as I think we are ever going to get to the best possible scenario for a Celtics team built around that Tatum/Brown core, and the team still fell short in what feels like highly disappointing fashion.  Struggling past Atlanta, needing 51 points from Tatum to scrape past the Sixers, and now on the verge of being swept by the 8th seed Heat. Sure, the coach hasn't been great, and deserves some of the blame, but ultimately it's got to come down to your two best players - and Tatum/Brown as a duo have not shown me that they have what it takes to lead the Celtics to a championship. 

All this makes me feel like it's time to break up that core and try something new. Tatum is a truly special talent and a top-5 MVP candidate who has just averaged 29/11/5 over the entire playoffs so you sure as hell aren't moving him. If one of the guys is to go, it's clearly going to be Jaylen. 

[Muzzy66]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Brown for Sabonis / Huerter would be amazing I think, but I'm not sure if the kings would do it.  They made the playoffs in what seems like the first time in decades, and Sabonis was a top 10 in MVP voting.  If they were up to it, then this is certainly a move I would make in the blink of an eye. 

I think an efficient-scoring big like Sabonis is exactly the type of player you want to compliment Tatum's perimeter-oriented game.  On those nights when Tatum is struggling on the perimeter you can get the ball to Sabonis for a high percentage shot in the paint, and if teams focus their attention on Sabonis in the paint you're creating more room for Tatum to operate on the perimeter.   Sabonis would also be the perfect player to take over for Horford as Al's career inevitably winds down (he's shown some clear decline this year) and a frontcourt of Sabonis + Timelord would be one of the best young frontcourts in the league for years to come.

[jpotter33]

It's unlikely, but there's absolutely precedent for trading a star player like this a year before they're a free agent. We had one just this year in Kyrie, even if slightly different situation given Kyrie's controversial character and decisions.

But it's actually not all that dissimilar given that I think there's going to be real questions about paying Brown the supermax after this postseason. His several major weaknesses have been on full display this postseason, and it's looking clearer and clearer that he's not a great second star fit behind JT given his strengths/weaknesses compared to Tatum, at least with our current no-true-PG dynamic. If you're not going to pay him the supermax, you absolutely have to trade him, as he almost certainly feels like he deserves it and will be slighted by not getting it.

If you can find a team that Brown would at least softly commit to for next year, you can absolutely find a trade partner with reasonable return.

The obvious choice here is Atlanta, and while I'm no Trae fan, there is some logic behind a trade package centered on a Trae for JB swap. Something like: Trae and Bey for Brown, White/Brogdon/Smart, and PP.

For Boston: our lack of a true point guard has been on full display this postseason yet again, as well as having a true alpha type star to help Tatum out in the closing moments. For all his flaws, Trae would actually fit this need perfectly. He'd provide us a true, proven point guard to take over the offense, as well as serve as a second, bonafide star to help Tatum out when things get tight down the stretch. Further, he's an excellent decision-maker and passer with a higher BBIQ. He'd also seemingly thrive with another star the caliber of Tatum.

For Atlanta: JB is from the Atlanta area and has regularly discussed loving playing back in his home area. He would seemingly relish the opportunity to go back home and play for his home team, especially given that he could be "the man" there and get all the attention. Trae has had some issues with Atlanta's coaching and management in the past, and there were already rumors about looking to move him this summer. JB would provide a similar level star who seemingly has less baggage and would be a better fit with Murray and the rest of their roster.

Not likely to happen, but I do think we have to make some sort of move for a truer point guard this summer. And moving one or more of Smart, White, and Brogdon and/or a star swap with Brown is the best way to do this.

[Celtic_Pride777]

I've seen a lot of posts calling for Jaylen Brown to be traded. I'm sorry to disappoint everyone but there is 0% chance that is happening. The reason is a bit nerdy, but here it is:

Contract reasons. Jaylen Brown makes roughly 30 million a year, extensions for NBA veterans are limited by the CBA. In Browns case he'll be limited to 140% of his salary. Now, that SHOULD be just enough to get him to his 30% max contract. The issue is that any extension needs to carry over incentives, and Browns contract is full of incentives for games played, all star, team succes, ect. That means any extension he signs will not really be a max, it will have a bunch of non-guaranteed incentives. If Brown waits until 2024 he can instead sign a fully guaranteed max. He's not signing any extension.

But even besides that, Brown would have zero reason to sign an extension with any team he's traded to even if he COULD get a full max extension. If he's traded he is no longer eligible for the Super Max contract. The difference between what a team he's traded to can offer him over four years, vs what any other team can offer him over four years, is relatively minor. The team with his bird rights can offer him 4/192, any other team can offer him 4/184. The team he's traded to can offer him an extra year, but the money over the first 4 years is only 8 million different. There's very little reason to attach himself to whatever team would acquire him when he could wait a year and pick his own team.

So, Jaylen is basically not going to extend to any he's traded too, which craters his market. Nobody is giving up fair value for a guy that is a huge flight risk after one season.

This is why Brown needed to make All-NBA. Because otherwise the c's would have no way to extend him. Making all-nba allows them to offer him between 30% and 35% of the cap, without having to follow normal extension rules. None of those pesky non guarantees, and a lot more money. There's essentially no reason for Brown not to sign the supermax, he isn't getting more money waiting and would in fact be leaving about 40 million on the table (224 through first 4 years, 184 signing with another team) if he decided he wanted to leave. But again, to be clear, this only applies to the Celtics. If he's trade, no supermax. No other team can offer it.

What's going to happen is this: The c's will offer him the super max. He will sign it. When he does he can't be traded for a year. The c's will make some changes around Tatum/Brown next year and see how it goes. If things look terrible next year they can then trade Brown and get back closer to fair value for a guy under contract, if that's the direction they decide to go.

Keep in mind: All of this is completely separate from whether you even think, from a basketball standpoint, they should trade him. I'm not convinced of that. One rough shooting series from Tatum last year didn't move me, one rough shooting series form Brown this year doesn't either. But regardless of your basketball opinion, from a purely value standpoint they really can't.

I agree with everything you said but he's not worth a super-max contract. It's a massive overpay.

[johnnygreen]

I like Brown, but he is not worth a super max contract. And if the Celtics do sign him to one, he will instantly become un-tradeable. The Celtics can't have to super max contracts for guys that haven't won a title.

[gouki88]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too

[johnnygreen]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would make that Lillard trade in a second. The organization needs to do what ever they can to try to win 1 title. They need to stop thinking about keeping the Jays together in hopes of winning multiple titles, because they're not close.

[Muzzy66]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too

I don't love Siakam either to be honest, as I'm not sure he really solves the problems.  He's pretty darn inconsistent too and is prone to completely vanishing come crunch time - and he's also not the most efficient player on the planet.  I actually think he's even less reliable on the offensive end then JB. I guess the upside would be that he's a better (and more vesatile) defender, better rebounder, and better playmaker.  Not sure if he would resolve the issue though. 

[gouki88]

Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated.  Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him.  Or he indicates he happily go somewhere.  Or a team is looking to move on from a guy.  Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. 

A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable

Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby

Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody

Brown, Smart for Lillard

Brown for JJJ

Brown for Sabonis, Huerter

Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy

If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense

All of those make some level of sense for both teams.  I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.

I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too

I don't love Siakam either to be honest, as I'm not sure he really solves the problems.  He's pretty darn inconsistent too and is prone to completely vanishing come crunch time - and he's also not the most efficient player on the planet.  I actually think he's even less reliable on the offensive end then JB. I guess the upside would be that he's a better (and more vesatile) defender, better rebounder, and better playmaker.  Not sure if he would resolve the issue though.

I think he’s inconsistent as a #1 option, which he should not be. But we’ve seen how good he is when paired with an elite offensive option (Kawhi). He’s a legit championship #2, with his versatility and utility better served in that role. Anunoby would also provide a heap of help defensively. We’d be able to play some really awesome powerful lineups

[Who]

Would you trade Jaylen for Darius Garland?

CLE gets to move away from their undersized defensively challenged backcourt. Fills that SF spot. Can look for a defensive guard to play alongside Donovan Mitchell.

BOS gets a true PG who can create off the bounce at a high rate. Garland can create for himself and for others. He can push the pace and give BOS tempo. He doesn't impede on Tatum too much. I feel Trae Young would. A similar type of player as Garland but even more ball dominant and even weaker defensively. I believe Garland would take a back-seat to Tatum easier.

[gouki88]

Would you trade Jaylen for Darius Garland?

CLE gets to move away from their undersized defensively challenged backcourt. Fills that SF spot. Can look for a defensive guard to play alongside Donovan Mitchell.

BOS gets a true PG who can create off the bounce at a high rate. Garland can create for himself and for others. He can push the pace and give BOS tempo. He doesn't impede on Tatum too much. I feel Trae Young would. A similar type of player as Garland but even more ball dominant and even weaker defensively. I believe Garland would take a back-seat to Tatum easier.

I would. I also think Cleveland would, as Brown & Mitchell are very close.

Garland doesn't need too many shots, and has already shown a good ability to work as a #2 behind a shot-heavy #1 in Mitchell. He's really efficient, has worked on turning it over less, improves every season and would give us some desperately-needed dribble penetration.

If we did that, I think our team would operate really nicely. In an ideal world, I would also trade Smart for Wendell Carter Jr, and keep both Pritchard and Grant Williams.

Garland / Pritchard
White / Brogdon
Tatum / Hauser
Horford / Gallinari / Grant
Carter Jr. / Williams 3 / Muscala

I think that group would be fun, assuming we hired an NBA-level coach.

[Kernewek]

It's unlikely, but there's absolutely precedent for trading a star player like this a year before they're a free agent. We had one just this year in Kyrie, even if slightly different situation given Kyrie's controversial character and decisions.

But it's actually not all that dissimilar given that I think there's going to be real questions about paying Brown the supermax after this postseason. His several major weaknesses have been on full display this postseason, and it's looking clearer and clearer that he's not a great second star fit behind JT given his strengths/weaknesses compared to Tatum, at least with our current no-true-PG dynamic. If you're not going to pay him the supermax, you absolutely have to trade him, as he almost certainly feels like he deserves it and will be slighted by not getting it.

If you can find a team that Brown would at least softly commit to for next year, you can absolutely find a trade partner with reasonable return.

The obvious choice here is Atlanta, and while I'm no Trae fan, there is some logic behind a trade package centered on a Trae for JB swap. Something like: Trae and Bey for Brown, White/Brogdon/Smart, and PP.

For Boston: our lack of a true point guard has been on full display this postseason yet again, as well as having a true alpha type star to help Tatum out in the closing moments. For all his flaws, Trae would actually fit this need perfectly. He'd provide us a true, proven point guard to take over the offense, as well as serve as a second, bonafide star to help Tatum out when things get tight down the stretch. Further, he's an excellent decision-maker and passer with a higher BBIQ. He'd also seemingly thrive with another star the caliber of Tatum.

For Atlanta: JB is from the Atlanta area and has regularly discussed loving playing back in his home area. He would seemingly relish the opportunity to go back home and play for his home team, especially given that he could be "the man" there and get all the attention. Trae has had some issues with Atlanta's coaching and management in the past, and there were already rumors about looking to move him this summer. JB would provide a similar level star who seemingly has less baggage and would be a better fit with Murray and the rest of their roster.

Not likely to happen, but I do think we have to make some sort of move for a truer point guard this summer. And moving one or more of Smart, White, and Brogdon and/or a star swap with Brown is the best way to do this.

Kind of interesting because the logic follows, yet we all saw that the real improvement to the team under Udoka was watching the roster play without an undersized, shoot-first point guard, which Young undoubtedly is. I can't help but see a bit of a regression there, especially if we're now down one All-Star wing.