Toronto was a .500 team because they had literally no big men until a last-minute acquisition of Poeltl. Their win-pace bumped up to 45 after that move. Add in Brown and Smart instead of Siakam and Anunoby, which will give them some balance and more shooting, and I think they jump up to a 48 win team. So, the 5th seed. If they make a good hiring choice and are able to get someone like Monty Williams, that could be even higher.
Or he is traded for a player or players similarly situated. Or a team takes the chance on re-signing him. Or he indicates he happily go somewhere. Or a team is looking to move on from a guy. Players get traded all of the time with 1 year left. I would cry with joy at Brown & Smart for Siakam & OG, or for Dame. Would also probably do the Pels deal too
A couple of trades that in theory make sense and the value is reasonable
Brown, Smart for Siakam, Anunoby
Brown, Smart for Klay, Kuminga, Moody
Brown, Smart for Lillard
Brown for JJJ
Brown for Sabonis, Huerter
Brown, Rob, Gallinari for Ingram, Valanciunas, Murphy
If Houston signs Harden then something like Brown for Green makes a fair amount of sense
All of those make some level of sense for both teams. I don't think Brown gets traded, but it also isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Okay, this is another good example. Why would TOR do this deal? I think brown is a little better than Siakam for sure, although OG is probably a little better than Smart. Lets say this deal makes Toronto slightly better. But whats that get them? They were a play in team this year, maybe this gets them back in the play in as a 7th or 8th seed? Great. That's not a situation Toronto is going to feel great about getting Jaylen to re-sign into.
And for the C's the big issue is the defacto-hard cap moving forward. So the solution to that is.... get even more expensive? You save a little money giving Siakam a 30% max vs the Jaylen 35% max, but then you have to pay OG who is likely going to make a good deal more than Smart. I find it hard to believe the C's would trade Brown for two guys on 1 year deals (super risky) rather than just offer him the super max. The financial stuff becomes an even bigger issue!
Again, if a team is going to trade for Jaylen with 1 year left on his deal it needs to be a team that is winning next year (so they can convince him to stay), ideally in a market he'd want to be in. They'd need to be comfortable enough with the deal that they'd be okay risking him leaving, which likely means the c's aren't getting enough back. That's the issue.
That is why.
Well they'd better, because if they don't Brown has no real reason to stay and they lose Siakam and OG for basically nothing. Which is why they wont do it.
Siakam can leave anyway. He only has 1 year left as well. Smart has the longest contract in that trade. I think both Boston and Toronto would get better in that trade. Brown is a better fit with Barnes than either Siakam or OG and they need someone like Smart in the backcourt to compensate for VanVleet's awful defense. While Boston has White to fill in for Smart and adds two long lengthy defenders and an excellent #2 option at PF next to Tatum.
I like this Boston team a lot
White, Brogdon, Tatum, Siakam, Rob - OG, Grant, Al, Hauser, PP - Gallo, Muscala, Kornet
That team has a lot more balance and positionally makes a lot more sense.
I also like the new Toronto squad
Smart, Trent, Brown, Barnes, Poeltl - VanVleet, Boucher, 13, Young, Porter - Flynn, Wilson, Precious
Brown moves full time to his natural SF position where he can be the #1 option, VanVleet gets to be the super offensive sub off the bench, and most importantly Barnes gets the best opportunity to fulfill his potential. Good size and athleticism in the starting unit. That is probably a 50 win team.