Brown's on/off differential per 100 possessions for this season was -3.8. He was +5.4 last year, but has been negative overall and more seasons than not. However, every season outside of his rookie year he has been negative in the playoffs (and many way into the negative). Brown missed 15 games, Boston went 11-4, which translates to 60.13333 wins, which of course is better than the 56.2985 win pace with him. That is also right in line with his entire time in Boston.
hes not getting traded because GM's don't overreact to a bad playoff series to determine a players future and make dumb irrational emotional decisions that fans make.Sure but there are 6 uears of Boston being better with Brown not playing.. his on/off differential per 100 possessions has always been terrible. Brown quite simply doesn't impact wins and losses for Boston and he never has. I've gone through why countless times on this board but in short he isn't a good fit with Tatum because while he doe kost things well, he has no elite skills and he is worse than Tatum at basically everything. The team does better with an elite shooter or much better play maker playing in Brown's role. Those player compliment and enhance Tatum, while Brown does not.
this season is and playoffs is on mazzulla
They were literally better with him on the court than off the court just last year! And actually the year before that too! (According to cleaning the glass net rating). Admittedly he's been up and down in that regard, there were years like his third year (where he got benched) where he was bad, and the number was bad this year as well. I think he impacts winning. not as much as Tatum to be sure, but he has skills good teams need. You trade Brown, immediately you are looking for a guy with similar skills to replace him.
Brown quite simply doesn't move the needle for Boston where wins and losses are concerned. He just isn't impactful to the standings for Boston. He is just too duplicative and not as good as Tatum, who actually plays better when Brown doesn't play (shooting better, passing more, etc). Tatum drives the wins and losses for the Celtics and he has since he was a rookie and Tatum just doesn't play as well with Brown playing next to him.
The numbers have borne this out for years, yet I'm the crazy person every time I point it out.
If you remove the rookie year, when of course the numbers sucks, its pretty mixed bag. Two very good years, two middle of the pack years, two somewhat bad years. But also: The team was VERY good a lot of those years with some pretty good benches some of those years, being somewhat negative on a still very good team when you are a starter going against other teams starters isn't some huge indictment. I just think it's very clearly more nuisanced then "Jaylen Brown isn't a winning player." I don't think you're crazy, there is certainly SOME truth here, I just think you're over indexing on advanced stats and overstating the case slightly.
And that's before we get into a broader discussion of how much weight advanced metric should have, and the fact that on/off net rating doesn't REALLY measure your impact on winning, at least not strictly speaking. But ya, advanced stats have never loved the guy. On the other hand three different coaches have felt he's worth playing 40+ minutes a game in high leverage series.
Also: I care exactly zero percent about a 15 game win loss record. 7 of those wins were against teams CHA and Detroit, who were actively trying to lose. Weird quirks like that pop up in team win/loss record over small samples. The 76ers had a GREAT record without Embiid, the literal league MVP. The Grizz have a better record without Ja. With stuff happens. We shouldn't put too much stock into stuff like that, its just not that useful.
Look, i think you can have a discussion about Brown's impact on winning. I would also rather he had the advanced metrics of Tatum. But also I completely disagree with the "Tatum and Brown don't fit" stuff. Like I think that's just garbage. They team is AWESOME when they are both playing well, almost literally unbeatable. There's no real reason you can't have two high USG guys, almost every team does. They have significant individual success, significant team success (for guys their age). Are they somewhat duplicative? In some ways maybe. But those are skills you need duplicates off. Like I'm not sure I can see a reason why these guys shouldn't work together, and they have worked together just fine. Its possible the c's can find someone who is a better fit than Tatum, impacts winning more, ect. But the point of this post is that because of contract reasons they are very unlikely to be able to use Jaylen Brown to do that this off-season. That's likely a 2024 question.
I'm largely fine giving the partnership at least one more year.