Do you still believe?

[ozgod]

yeah, defense is what won the game. people are making alot of celtics shooting 41%. but Miami shot 39.1% from 3! and 51% total for the game. its very simplistic to say "celtics shot well so they won"

But it was the ball pressure and being physical with their hands, forcing turnovers, fighting hard for 50-50 balls. Miami had to work for EVERYTHING. They made bam/jimmy uncomfortable...most of the shots Miami hit were tough "got to tip your cap" type shots.

compare that to games 1-3 where celtics let Miami shoot like 60% and get to anywhere they wanted on the court.

IF, and thats a big if considering how this team has played at times they can keep that defensive intensity up. Miami cant beat them. Chuck is right on that one. he said if celtics play to their potential, Miami cant win.

I think we need a tatum masterclass type game where he goes for 46. Although I'll take another Derrick White big game...

The point I was making is that making your shots, especially threes, make defending an easier job. The other team has to inbound the ball and walk it up the court against a set defense. It's easier to force turnovers and steals against a half court offense than one that is in transition. When you miss threes it increases the chance for a transition opportunity on the other end, especially if there's nobody back, teams can easily leak out against a scrambling defense. Plus you're just more energized when you make shots.

I'm not suggesting that they just "won because of threes" though that definitely helped. It's a cascading effect - make your threes, other team has to walk it up, easier to defend. What I'd like to see from them is the same level of commitment on defense, whether it's preventing teams getting out in transition after misses or defending in the half court. We have a 40-2 record in 100 games (regular season and playoffs) when we shoot over 40% and a 29-31 record when we shoot less than 40%. A big part of that is letting their heads drop after misses but it's also because it's harder to defend when teams rebound the ball after misses and push the ball up vs when they are taking the ball out of the basket and inbounding it and walking it up against a set defense.

NBA.com doesn't track these stats (to the best of my knowledge) but I'd be curious to know what % of possessions we defended that were transition/breakout type possessions vs half court possession in Games 1-3 vs Games 4-5 and how well we defended each. But if defense is truly going to be their calling card, they need to maintain the intensity when the ball isn't going in, make sure they run back, don't get beat by their man up the court, don't complain to the ref after a miss because you think you got fouled and let the other team beat you up the court. Those are the little details that I think will help their defense and help them win even if they shoot 20% from 3.

It's not easy though, letting missed shots lead to lackadaisical defense happens to the best of them it seems 

“The last two games are not who we are,” Butler insisted. “It just happened be that way. We stopped playing defense, halfway because we didn’t make shots we want to make. That’s easily correctable. We’ve got to come out and play harder from the jump.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/26/sports/celtics-still-trail-this-series-all-pressure-is-heat/

You can bet Spoel will make sure that doesn't happen again, Joe has to make sure we do the same.

On another note, I'm stoked to see all the positivity from everyone - the site is so much more pleasant to be at when they're winning and playing well, no doubt...hope we have a few more believers after the last couple of games 

[SHAQATTACK]

If Lowry is their point guard we win.

Oh…..and. FIRE JOE already 

[Kernewek]

yeah, defense is what won the game. people are making alot of celtics shooting 41%. but Miami shot 39.1% from 3! and 51% total for the game. its very simplistic to say "celtics shot well so they won"

But it was the ball pressure and being physical with their hands, forcing turnovers, fighting hard for 50-50 balls. Miami had to work for EVERYTHING. They made bam/jimmy uncomfortable...most of the shots Miami hit were tough "got to tip your cap" type shots.

compare that to games 1-3 where celtics let Miami shoot like 60% and get to anywhere they wanted on the court.

IF, and thats a big if considering how this team has played at times they can keep that defensive intensity up. Miami cant beat them. Chuck is right on that one. he said if celtics play to their potential, Miami cant win.

I think we need a tatum masterclass type game where he goes for 46. Although I'll take another Derrick White big game...

The point I was making is that making your shots, especially threes, make defending an easier job. The other team has to inbound the ball and walk it up the court against a set defense. It's easier to force turnovers and steals against a half court offense than one that is in transition. When you miss threes it increases the chance for a transition opportunity on the other end, especially if there's nobody back, teams can easily leak out against a scrambling defense. Plus you're just more energized when you make shots.

I'm not suggesting that they just "won because of threes" though that definitely helped. It's a cascading effect - make your threes, other team has to walk it up, easier to defend. What I'd like to see from them is the same level of commitment on defense, whether it's preventing teams getting out in transition after misses or defending in the half court. We have a 40-2 record in 100 games (regular season and playoffs) when we shoot over 40% and a 29-31 record when we shoot less than 40%. A big part of that is letting their heads drop after misses but it's also because it's harder to defend when teams rebound the ball after misses and push the ball up vs when they are taking the ball out of the basket and inbounding it and walking it up against a set defense.

NBA.com doesn't track these stats (to the best of my knowledge) but I'd be curious to know what % of possessions we defended that were transition/breakout type possessions vs half court possession in Games 1-3 vs Games 4-5 and how well we defended each. But if defense is truly going to be their calling card, they need to maintain the intensity when the ball isn't going in, make sure they run back, don't get beat by their man up the court, don't complain to the ref after a miss because you think you got fouled and let the other team beat you up the court. Those are the little details that I think will help their defense and help them win even if they shoot 20% from 3.

It's not easy though, letting missed shots lead to lackadaisical defense happens to the best of them it seems 

“The last two games are not who we are,” Butler insisted. “It just happened be that way. We stopped playing defense, halfway because we didn’t make shots we want to make. That’s easily correctable. We’ve got to come out and play harder from the jump.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/26/sports/celtics-still-trail-this-series-all-pressure-is-heat/

You can bet Spoel will make sure that doesn't happen again, Joe has to make sure we do the same.

On another note, I'm stoked to see all the positivity from everyone - the site is so much more pleasant to be at when they're winning and playing well, no doubt...hope we have a few more believers after the last couple of games 

I actually really like Spoelstra's quote here and think it's very reasonable, but in the interest of providing something that both parses hilariously and would get other coaches crucified:

Who cares about mood? One game doesn't lead to the next game. Based on all the experience that we've had, it doesn't matter in the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you lose by whatever. We beat them by whatever in Game 3. It just doesn't matter. It's about collectively preparing and putting together a great game. We'll play much better on Saturday.

Good point Spo - If you guys just stick with your unsustainable(?) performance from the last four weeks, you guys should win this next one. Have you thought about playing better defense? Shooting more threes? Perhaps attempting to score more baskets than the other team? What about 'putting in the work'?

[ozgod]

I am a bit scared to truly believe, but the series is absolutely alive. Would be a historic comeback, but this team seems to thrive when it’s back is against the wall

My fear is that the last two games have gone our way because we've shot 40%+ from 3 both of those games. It's an easier game when you make your threes, especially for this team. Because if you make your threes, the Heat have to inbound the ball and walk it up against a half court defense and we can press them. When you miss threes, they get out in transition and then you get the pull up 3s, corner 3s and layups against a scrambling defense.

I tried to look at the box score stats for the series and obviously the threes % is a big one, but because we were in half court defense more often we had more steals, deflections, blocks, which at least is a sign of a more committed defense. The Heat had 15 and 16 turnovers the last couple of games vs us 10 and 9, after the turnover stats were reversed in games 1 - 3. In fact, the blocks, steals were also reversed in the last 2 games from the first 3.

Code: [Select]

R FG% 3FG% STL BLK TO oFG% o3FG% oSTL oBLK oTO
G1 L .519 .345 6 3 15 .541 .516 12 3 12
G2 L .468 .286 2 9 15 .457 .346 9 5 10
G3 L .398 .262 3 3 15 .568 .543 7 4 9
G4 W .512 .400 8 8 10 .436 .250 5 2 15
G5 W .506 .410 13 4 9 .513 .391 6 2 16
I hope this isn't just a case of "we made our threes, we win" - definitely we deserved to make our 3s because of the ball movement and the spacing being a lot better. But our defense needs to continue to force turnovers, even if we miss shots and have to defend in transition. We need to limit as many of those opportunities for the Heat as possible. I have a feeling G6 will be a grind it out game, it's not going to be pretty and it's going to be stressful for both fanbases to watch, so we have to figure out a way to win either way. I just don't want them to hang their heads if they start missing and let their defense lapse, give them as little transition opportunities as possible.

I do think if we win G6 it will be our series to lose, so this is really the pivotal game.

Well if it makes you feel any better the 40.5% the c's shot from three in games 4+5 were much closer to their typical season average performance then the first three games were.

Games 1-3: 31/108 from three for 28.7% or a 10.3/36 average per game.
Games 4-5: 34/84 from three for 40.5% or a 17/42 average per game.

On the season they averaged 16/42.7 for 37.7% from three. So the first three games were really the outlier.

The downside to being down 3-0 is you don't get to have another awful shooting game. They shoot sub 30% again they likely lose the game. But on the plus size with the defense they are playing they can probably win a game they shoot more like 35%.

After shooting 40% the last couple of games, they shot 20% in this one but their defense kept Miami to 30% from 2 even if they shot 45% from 3.

Code: [Select]


R FG% 3FG% STL BLK TO oFG% o3FG% oSTL oBLK oTO
G1 L .519 .345 6 3 15 .541 .516 12 3 12
G2 L .468 .286 2 9 15 .457 .346 9 5 10
G3 L .398 .262 3 3 15 .568 .543 7 4 9
G4 W .512 .400 8 8 10 .436 .250 5 2 15
G5 W .506 .410 13 4 9 .513 .391 6 2 16
G6 W .436 .200 4 8 12 .355 .457 5 4 5
All the metrics were against us - we forced less turnovers, less steals, they shot lights out from 3 while we didn't, but we didn't fold at the end thanks to D. White. We are now 30-31 in games where we shoot less than 40% from 3 and that last win came with the season on the line 

This is the type of fight that I wanted to see from them where they don't drop their heads and let the team run away with it just because their shot isn't falling - they still controlled the game for all but the last 4 minutes even though they were shooting terrible. Obviously we made a few missteps at the end - Jimmy is a world class player and he lifted his game at the end after playing terrible most of the game and we have to give him credit for that, but we had the final answer with Derrick. If they put that type of effort into each game irrespective of whether their shooting is there or not I will be satisfied. Because more often than not they will win if the effort and commitment to defense is there. We don't want to be a make-miss team, we want to win these ugly games where we can't hit the side of a barn. I just want to see performances where they don't quit and that they can be proud of.

One more game, I don't want them to let off mentally or think the series is over. The Heat won't be thinking like that and they have to be ready. But I think they have Miami's measure as long as we put all the effort in for 48 minutes. Don't let makes or misses affect their approach to the game, particularly defensively. They've been through so much adversity it would be a shame to let go of the rope now. Elimination game for both teams. Close it out 

[Kernewek]

I've been discussing extensively what it takes for a team to stage a comeback and win a series after being behind 3-0.

In my view, all the necessary elements are present. We possess greater talent compared to the Heat, we hold the advantage of playing a Game 7 at home, and we have far more playoff experience.

If you doubt the Celtics' ability to overcome a 3-0 deficit and make a comeback, given these variables, then you simply don't believe it's achievable ever. However, you're mistaken because it is indeed possible. I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to see it play out.

Love a thread where JSD and I are in agreement.

Back to Boston we go.

[Larry for 3]

Depends — is Tony Brothers reffin game 7? If no we win. If yes I’m nervous as heck.

[Birdman]

Not having healthy Brogdan hurts but Grant, Hauser & even Payton got to step up

[Celtics2021]

Depends — is Tony Brothers reffin game 7? If no we win. If yes I’m nervous as heck.

It’s his turn in the 4-ref rotation of Foster, Davis, Zarba, and Brothers, since the West was settled before we played game 4.  Those have been the only four lead officials in both conference finals.  Maybe we’ll get “lucky” and they’ll give us Foster for a Game 7.

[Who]

So we went from huge favourite to favourite to written off to underdog back to favourite again. All in one series.

[ozgod]

So we went from huge favourite to favourite to written off to underdog back to favourite again. All in one series.

Story of our roller coaster season 

[SHAQATTACK]

We should just have Buckets play Tatum one on one , because that is what this next game will be .   The team that stops standing around and watching them play will win.

We have a lot of spectators ON the court way to much of the time . Usually DWhite and Smart don’t do that.

I still feel Heat have the coach advantage and  mental tuffness that I don’t trust the Celtics to bring AT HOME .  To cool ,  they need to play 48 minutes of cut throat in your opponent’s uniform defense on the Heat .  Because Spo will definitely have his team playing that way .

Joe ….toss a few chair ,  bite a chickens head off in the locker room ….do something other that stair like dummy straight ahead …..the Indians are charging…..DO SOMETHING for change !

[Kernewek]

• It's an impossible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 192 minutes! It's never been done before! ← after game three the unbelievers were here.

• It's an impossible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 192 minutes! It's never been done before!
  It's an impossible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 144 minutes! It's never been done before! ← after game four the unbelievers were here.

• It's an impossible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 144 minutes! It's never been done before!
  It's maybe a possible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 96 minutes! It's been done before! ← after game five the unbelievers were here.

• It's an impossible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 96 minutes! It's never been done before!
  It's a possible task! The Celtics have to be the better basketball team for 48 minutes! It's been done before! ← after game six the unbelievers are now here.

[cman88]

Energy in the Garden is going to be crazy on Monday night

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

rewatching last 4 minutes

the announcers said we needed to get into our offense faster against the zone

but what stood out was we could not make a shot the last 2.5 minutes and we had some good chances

al missed a post up in the paint

white missed a runner

tatum mised a layup off the glass and a three

geeeez

we had a 7 point lead with 2.5 minutes left
\
and a 4 point lead with 53 seconds left

unreal how we could not close that out easier.

we are now up by 1 with smart going to the line foir 2 free throws after the duncan missed three and he mises the front end. this is what i mean making these in crunch time

make both and we are up three and all we have to do is defend 3 line and we win give them a 2 or a foul inside the line

nope we are only up 2 and we foul jimmy behind the 3 line. unreal how many times we had to finish this game off. yet needed a miracle.

[radiohead]

I still believe and I’m so nervous!