Do you still believe?

[keevsnick]

I am a bit scared to truly believe, but the series is absolutely alive. Would be a historic comeback, but this team seems to thrive when it’s back is against the wall

My fear is that the last two games have gone our way because we've shot 40%+ from 3 both of those games. It's an easier game when you make your threes, especially for this team. Because if you make your threes, the Heat have to inbound the ball and walk it up against a half court defense and we can press them. When you miss threes, they get out in transition and then you get the pull up 3s, corner 3s and layups against a scrambling defense.

I tried to look at the box score stats for the series and obviously the threes % is a big one, but because we were in half court defense more often we had more steals, deflections, blocks, which at least is a sign of a more committed defense. The Heat had 15 and 16 turnovers the last couple of games vs us 10 and 9, after the turnover stats were reversed in games 1 - 3. In fact, the blocks, steals were also reversed in the last 2 games from the first 3.

Code: [Select]

R FG% 3FG% STL BLK TO oFG% o3FG% oSTL oBLK oTO
G1 L .519 .345 6 3 15 .541 .516 12 3 12
G2 L .468 .286 2 9 15 .457 .346 9 5 10
G3 L .398 .262 3 3 15 .568 .543 7 4 9
G4 W .512 .400 8 8 10 .436 .250 5 2 15
G5 W .506 .410 13 4 9 .513 .391 6 2 16
I hope this isn't just a case of "we made our threes, we win" - definitely we deserved to make our 3s because of the ball movement and the spacing being a lot better. But our defense needs to continue to force turnovers, even if we miss shots and have to defend in transition. We need to limit as many of those opportunities for the Heat as possible. I have a feeling G6 will be a grind it out game, it's not going to be pretty and it's going to be stressful for both fanbases to watch, so we have to figure out a way to win either way. I just don't want them to hang their heads if they start missing and let their defense lapse, give them as little transition opportunities as possible.

I do think if we win G6 it will be our series to lose, so this is really the pivotal game.

Well if it makes you feel any better the 40.5% the c's shot from three in games 4+5 were much closer to their typical season average performance then the first three games were.

Games 1-3: 31/108 from three for 28.7% or a 10.3/36 average per game.
Games 4-5: 34/84 from three for 40.5% or a 17/42 average per game.

On the season they averaged 16/42.7 for 37.7% from three. So the first three games were really the outlier.

The downside to being down 3-0 is you don't get to have another awful shooting game. They shoot sub 30% again they likely lose the game. But on the plus size with the defense they are playing they can probably win a game they shoot more like 35%.

[Roy H.]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

[Vermont Green]

I really have no idea what will happen. There is so much drama, intrigue, and emotion going into this game 6. Pair that was the inconsistencies of Boston I am really nervous.

The only sliver of hope I have is that Boston has dominated the last 6 quarters. Maybe, and just maybe, that is a sign that we've figured it out and Miami's magical run is over.

It is so hard to say.  Take all the emotion out of it and you see the following:

We are still down 3-2 - Advantage Miami
Celtics have been notoriously inconsistent and have just played 2 good games in a row - Advantage Miami, based on track record
Spoelstra has 2 games of footage to help his team adjust - Advantage Miami

There is also hot shooting that may revert at some point and Gabe Vincent coming back on the other side, while we cannot expect anything out of Brogdon anymore.

This task no longer seems completely impossible, but I still have to call it unlikely to happen.

I am not concerned with any of the issue you raise except 1, maybe 2.  Of course it is an advantage for MIA to be up 3-2, that simply is the task at hand.  But I feel Spoestra can look at all the tape he wants, there really is not much anyone can do at this point.  This is not about coaching at this point.  And I am not worried about Gabe Vincent.  He is a player that for his career is not that much better than Payton Pritchard.  We are the better team in terms of personnel, Vincent coming back does not change that.   Highsmith and Robinson filled in for him and combined for 33 points.

The track record of inconsistency is the concern.  It is the issue and the whole issue.  If we have an inconsistent game or even stretch of a game, it is over.  That simple.  It isn't going to be Spoestra coaching or Gabe Vincent or whatever.  I think we can even overcome Butler going off for 50 if we play at or near our full potential.

[boscel33]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

I don't think it's fair for me to celebrate if I'm out, that's why.  But who knows....

[nyceltsfan]

I really have no idea what will happen. There is so much drama, intrigue, and emotion going into this game 6. Pair that was the inconsistencies of Boston I am really nervous.

The only sliver of hope I have is that Boston has dominated the last 6 quarters. Maybe, and just maybe, that is a sign that we've figured it out and Miami's magical run is over.

It is so hard to say.  Take all the emotion out of it and you see the following:

We are still down 3-2 - Advantage Miami
Celtics have been notoriously inconsistent and have just played 2 good games in a row - Advantage Miami, based on track record
Spoelstra has 2 games of footage to help his team adjust - Advantage Miami

There is also hot shooting that may revert at some point and Gabe Vincent coming back on the other side, while we cannot expect anything out of Brogdon anymore.

This task no longer seems completely impossible, but I still have to call it unlikely to happen.

I am not concerned with any of the issue you raise except 1, maybe 2.  Of course it is an advantage for MIA to be up 3-2, that simply is the task at hand.  But I feel Spoestra can look at all the tape he wants, there really is not much anyone can do at this point.  This is not about coaching at this point.  And I am not worried about Gabe Vincent.  He is a player that for his career is not that much better than Payton Pritchard.  We are the better team in terms of personnel, Vincent coming back does not change that.   Highsmith and Robinson filled in for him and combined for 33 points.

The track record of inconsistency is the concern.  It is the issue and the whole issue.  If we have an inconsistent game or even stretch of a game, it is over.  That simple.  It isn't going to be Spoestra coaching or Gabe Vincent or whatever.  I think we can even overcome Butler going off for 50 if we play at or near our full potential.

For the most part I agree with you.  However, I believe that Miami has something to do with how we play.  They are a talented defensive team that plays hard.  If Spoelstra can make defensive adjustments, they can disrupt our offensive flow and our best hope will be our defensive intensity and transition offense against their defensive intensity and transition offense.  Their 3 point shooters seem to be more accurate than ours on open shots (eye test, not statistically proven) and they are just as capable of creating steals and blocked shots as we are.

The main advantage we have is that at our best, we are much more versatile than they are and Tatum vs. Butler, both at the top of their games, I give the advantage to Tatum.  However, from a consistency standpoint, I still lean towards Butler.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I really have no idea what will happen. There is so much drama, intrigue, and emotion going into this game 6. Pair that was the inconsistencies of Boston I am really nervous.

The only sliver of hope I have is that Boston has dominated the last 6 quarters. Maybe, and just maybe, that is a sign that we've figured it out and Miami's magical run is over.

It is so hard to say.  Take all the emotion out of it and you see the following:

We are still down 3-2 - Advantage Miami
Celtics have been notoriously inconsistent and have just played 2 good games in a row - Advantage Miami, based on track record
Spoelstra has 2 games of footage to help his team adjust - Advantage Miami

There is also hot shooting that may revert at some point and Gabe Vincent coming back on the other side, while we cannot expect anything out of Brogdon anymore.

This task no longer seems completely impossible, but I still have to call it unlikely to happen.

good post. that is exactly my feelings altho i am staying positive now. we shoulda never ever been on this spot..soooooooo.lets see if they can embrace it. when is the last time we played 3 straight good games? nets last year? This gives me heartburn.

we need everybody to chip in now and keep chipping in with points. i wish timelord had a 8 to 10 foot jumper in the paint.
we need scoring from

JT
JB
DW
G will
smart
al
and something from R will

i hope PP or hauser replaces an injured brogdon and goes beserk next game from 3. we cannot have them on butler tho.

I just hope and pray now that both teams have seen enough and made all the adjustments possible. Now it is just like a football game.  if you have a team fading and tired and starting to feel like they are drowning under water(the heat i hope) that you impose your will and just punch them in the mouth and execute even if they know what you are doing. just beat them down. even if they know what is coming.

game 6 is game 7 for the heat.  can we play 4 straight game 7's with our backs to the wall? not expected and not likely and heat should close out in 6. I will keep saying heat in 5 or 6. so far it has helped us. 

[keevsnick]

I was pretty confident heading into game 5, because it felt like they found something and I thought that energy would carry over at least one game.

Game 6 I kind of feel like literally any outcome is possible. i expect it to be a close defensive game but would it shock me if the c's go 20/50 from three and bury the Heat? No it would not. Would it shock me if they go 8/32 from three and the Heat shoot 50% and bury the C's? Not really.

So much for this team depends on how they shoot early. If they get in a groove they play with a confidence/pace/energy and usually roll. if they start cold they start pressing.

[Kernewek]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

I don't think it's fair for me to celebrate if I'm out, that's why.  But who knows....

I think most, but not all, fans would rather have their personal basketball brilliance be found wanting with a Celtics win than have their amateur takes be proven right by watching the Celtics lose.

[ozgod]

Funny how missing shots leads to teams not playing defense...letting poor offense affect their defense. Happens to the best of them I guess 

“The last two games are not who we are,” Butler insisted. “It just happened be that way. We stopped playing defense, halfway because we didn’t make shots we want to make. That’s easily correctable. We’ve got to come out and play harder from the jump.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/26/sports/celtics-still-trail-this-series-all-pressure-is-heat/

I guess those "shots we want to make" were the transition 3s and layups they were making with impunity in Games 2 and 3 because we shot 25% from 3 and gave them numerous opportunities by complaining to the refs about missed calls and not getting back in time to defend. In Games 4 and 5 we shot 40% from 3 and 50%+ overall, the Heat had to walk the ball up the court after inbounding after each shot and they had to go into their half court game against a set defense. It's easier to be committed when you are defending in the half court vs. in transition.

That's the key to this whole game in my opinion - our defense cannot concede easy shots for them, whether we make or miss shots. Shoot the 3s if they are there by all means but get back and contest if they miss. DON'T COMPLAIN TO THE REF ABOUT MISSED CALLS. Missed shots, especially missed 3s, give them a chance to get out in transition because those are long rebounds, and Joe needs to make sure he drills it in them to get back and contest any transition opportunities. If we do that we're halfway to winning the game.

[Roy H.]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

I don't think it's fair for me to celebrate if I'm out, that's why.  But who knows....

I think most, but not all, fans would rather have their personal basketball brilliance be found wanting with a Celtics win than have their amateur takes be proven right by watching the Celtics lose.

Yeah.  I'd like nothing more than the Celts to follow in the footsteps of the 2004 Sox and for Joe to end up in the HOF someday. 

I mean, I hated the Fultz trade and loved the Nesmith selection, so what the hell do I know?

[Kernewek]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

I don't think it's fair for me to celebrate if I'm out, that's why.  But who knows....

I think most, but not all, fans would rather have their personal basketball brilliance be found wanting with a Celtics win than have their amateur takes be proven right by watching the Celtics lose.

Yeah.  I'd like nothing more than the Celts to follow in the footsteps of the 2004 Sox and for Joe to end up in the HOF someday. 

I mean, I hated the Fultz trade and loved the Nesmith selection, so what the hell do I know?

Likewise, I thought Fab Melo could be a solid rotation piece for us. I do not get paid to know things about basketball.

[Vermont Green]

It is kind of funny that with every win, the odds of us winning the series gets better.  The odds or probability still favor the Heat but we are much better off right now statistically then we were after game 3.  This seems kind of obvious, but it should be easier to be holding out some hope now than it was after Sunday.  And if we win game 6, I don't know how anyone could still not believe.

I look at this now as we have to win 2 game 7s against a team we should be better than.  Anything can happen in a game 7, that is the cliché.  And I think that is true.  Butler could go off for 50.  The element of chance that exists for 3 point shooting could bite us or help us.  But after this last win, things suddenly became very real.  it doesn't matter how we got here, we are here, down 3-2.  Been here before, against probably better teams.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I'm still out.  If somehow, they pull this off and get #18, I won't celebrate because I've been out since the ATL series, but I'll properly give kudos and congratulate those who had the faith!

Why not celebrate?  I don't think there's a requirement that fans need to "believe" 100% of the time.  Hat tip to those who do, but not everybody has to be Pollyanna.

I fully intend to celebrate if the Celtics win this series, even though after Game 3 I thought they were getting swept.

I don't think it's fair for me to celebrate if I'm out, that's why.  But who knows....

you CAN celebrate. you are a fan and that is why you are HERE.  stop being so hard on yourself. the ebbs and flows and emotions and fighting realism all at the same time are rough and tough. its ok.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I really have no idea what will happen. There is so much drama, intrigue, and emotion going into this game 6. Pair that was the inconsistencies of Boston I am really nervous.

The only sliver of hope I have is that Boston has dominated the last 6 quarters. Maybe, and just maybe, that is a sign that we've figured it out and Miami's magical run is over.

It is so hard to say.  Take all the emotion out of it and you see the following:

We are still down 3-2 - Advantage Miami
Celtics have been notoriously inconsistent and have just played 2 good games in a row - Advantage Miami, based on track record
Spoelstra has 2 games of footage to help his team adjust - Advantage Miami

There is also hot shooting that may revert at some point and Gabe Vincent coming back on the other side, while we cannot expect anything out of Brogdon anymore.

This task no longer seems completely impossible, but I still have to call it unlikely to happen.

I am not concerned with any of the issue you raise except 1, maybe 2.  Of course it is an advantage for MIA to be up 3-2, that simply is the task at hand.  But I feel Spoestra can look at all the tape he wants, there really is not much anyone can do at this point.  This is not about coaching at this point.  And I am not worried about Gabe Vincent.  He is a player that for his career is not that much better than Payton Pritchard.  We are the better team in terms of personnel, Vincent coming back does not change that.   Highsmith and Robinson filled in for him and combined for 33 points.

The track record of inconsistency is the concern.  It is the issue and the whole issue.  If we have an inconsistent game or even stretch of a game, it is over.  That simple.  It isn't going to be Spoestra coaching or Gabe Vincent or whatever.  I think we can even overcome Butler going off for 50 if we play at or near our full potential.

that is my feelings now. we have seen it all. spoelstra cannot save them now. it is MANO Y MANO. this is round 14 of a 15 round heavyweight fight. we MUST survive and get to the last round. somebody is getting knocked out. we have to be able to with stand the punches and onslaught coming in game 6. and counter punch. stick and move. stick and move. then land some haymakers.

[cman88]

To be honest it comes down to playing defense the way we have the last 2 games and moving the ball around. That's really it.

Jimmy can say what he wants about how that "isn't who the heat are" and guarantee a win.

Celtics didn't win this because they shot 42% from 3. (The heat shot 39% btw). They won this because they played tough defense got in the passing lanes and made Miami uncomfortable. That is something they can continue to do if the effort is there.

I could be wrong but I think the effort is here to stay. It's when Celtics have no pressure they generally fold