I am a bit scared to truly believe, but the series is absolutely alive. Would be a historic comeback, but this team seems to thrive when it’s back is against the wall
My fear is that the last two games have gone our way because we've shot 40%+ from 3 both of those games. It's an easier game when you make your threes, especially for this team. Because if you make your threes, the Heat have to inbound the ball and walk it up against a half court defense and we can press them. When you miss threes, they get out in transition and then you get the pull up 3s, corner 3s and layups against a scrambling defense.
I tried to look at the box score stats for the series and obviously the threes % is a big one, but because we were in half court defense more often we had more steals, deflections, blocks, which at least is a sign of a more committed defense. The Heat had 15 and 16 turnovers the last couple of games vs us 10 and 9, after the turnover stats were reversed in games 1 - 3. In fact, the blocks, steals were also reversed in the last 2 games from the first 3.
R FG% 3FG% STL BLK TO oFG% o3FG% oSTL oBLK oTO
G1 L .519 .345 6 3 15 .541 .516 12 3 12
G2 L .468 .286 2 9 15 .457 .346 9 5 10
G3 L .398 .262 3 3 15 .568 .543 7 4 9
G4 W .512 .400 8 8 10 .436 .250 5 2 15
G5 W .506 .410 13 4 9 .513 .391 6 2 16
I hope this isn't just a case of "we made our threes, we win" - definitely we deserved to make our 3s because of the ball movement and the spacing being a lot better. But our defense needs to continue to force turnovers, even if we miss shots and have to defend in transition. We need to limit as many of those opportunities for the Heat as possible. I have a feeling G6 will be a grind it out game, it's not going to be pretty and it's going to be stressful for both fanbases to watch, so we have to figure out a way to win either way. I just don't want them to hang their heads if they start missing and let their defense lapse, give them as little transition opportunities as possible.
I do think if we win G6 it will be our series to lose, so this is really the pivotal game.