Do you still believe?

[wdleehi]

I still believe one game at a time. 




So I believe the Celtics are tired of hearing about their home record during the playoffs the past two years and will do something about it.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Some NBA team will eventually come back down from 0-3, and if they do it will be a situation like this.

Home team is heavily favored but falls down 0-3 in part because they shoot 29% from three while road team shoots 48% from three over three games.

Then shooting luck switches and the home team, which was the MUCH better 3 point shooting team in the regular season, regresses to their mean from three while the road team, which was the much worse shooting team in the regular season regress to theirs as well.

So its possible. Problem is down 0-3 is there's just no margin for error. One more bad shooting game, one Tatum/Brown foul trouble game, one bad ref game, one more "slow down offense and blow game" loss and its over.

Shooting luck matters. Not only is MIA shooting 42% from three to the c's 32% (even after game 4)  but they are shooting 48% on 15-24 ft shots ie long two pointers. The c's are 38% on those shots.

You can't tell me that's ALL defense. Like that's, to some degree at least, luck.

bam is good with his jumpers in the paint but butler has killed us this series from the baseline especially game 3.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

https://youtu.be/LKaXY4IdZ40

[Redz]

Some NBA team will eventually come back down from 0-3, and if they do it will be a situation like this.

Home team is heavily favored but falls down 0-3 in part because they shoot 29% from three while road team shoots 48% from three over three games.

Then shooting luck switches and the home team, which was the MUCH better 3 point shooting team in the regular season, regresses to their mean from three while the road team, which was the much worse shooting team in the regular season regress to theirs as well.

So its possible. Problem is down 0-3 is there's just no margin for error. One more bad shooting game, one Tatum/Brown foul trouble game, one bad ref game, one more "slow down offense and blow game" loss and its over.

Shooting luck matters. Not only is MIA shooting 42% from three to the c's 32% (even after game 4)  but they are shooting 48% on 15-24 ft shots ie long two pointers. The c's are 38% on those shots.

You can't tell me that's ALL defense. Like that's, to some degree at least, luck.

bam is good with his jumpers in the paint but butler has killed us this series from the baseline especially game 3.

Yeh.  I'm kind of allowing myself to believe in the possibility until they lose, because why not?!   It's way more fun.

Here's the thing.  The Celtics know they are the better team.  Which we all know works as a disadvantage for this team, because they perform like they can just step on the court and beat anyone (which some nights is true - but most nights it's a recipe for disaster). 

We also know that this team tends to respond when its back is truly against the wall and win in an improbable situations following disastrous one.  Can they sustain their sense of urgency?  We've seen them do it for 2 games. 

One at a time as you said.

Go Celts!

[jpotter33]

Through the first 3 games, some unexpected Heat players shot the following from 3:

Love           75%   (Game 4  50%)
Vincent       56%   (Game 4  25%)
Robinson     53%   (Game 4   0%)
Martin         48%   (Game 4  40%)

These 4 accounted for over 19 3PA per game in the first 3 games.  There were a few reasons for this from what I saw, Butler was good at setting them up, the Celtics did miss some rotations or otherwise didn't play tight defense, but these guys hit shots at an unsustainable rate.  Hopefully that bubble has burst and these guys will remember that they aren't really that good.  In game 4, this group was still pretty good, more like you would expect, a couple over 40%, a couple under 40%.  We can live with that.  To me, this is the key, do they keep hitting or cool off?

Another key to me is Brogdon.  He has been really flat, really off.  I think there is an opportunity for him to snap out of it and play better, have an impact on at least the next game.  He needs to be the guy for us that Martin and Vincent have been for the Heat.  We need the likes of Brogdon, White, and Grant to outplay the likes of Vincent, Martin, and Robinson.

Another concern I have is with RWill.  It seems the players kind of complained that they wanted him to start and play more but he has not been productive at all in this series.  He is not getting his lob-dunks, many of them end up in turnovers.  On defense, Miami is not challenging him at the rim, they are taking (and making) mid-range shots, mostly by Butler and Adebayo.  He usually brings a rebounding advantage but that is not offsetting his downside in this series.  I think we need to back off his minutes, keep playing Grant, and hope Al stays out of foul trouble.  Maybe give a few minutes to Hauser and hope he can hit a couple of 3s.

But isn’t that the point with Rob? I’d much rather them take midrange shots than at the basket, because as you say eventually they’ll regress to the mean. If he’s serving as a deterrent, then that’s fine.

I think the real issue there is adjusting Rob’s coverage. Bring him up a bit more and avoid being so deep in the paint so that they’re still encouraged to take the midrange shots but he’s up closer to provide more resistance and contest their shots more.

[angryguy77]

Through the first 3 games, some unexpected Heat players shot the following from 3:

Love           75%   (Game 4  50%)
Vincent       56%   (Game 4  25%)
Robinson     53%   (Game 4   0%)
Martin         48%   (Game 4  40%)

These 4 accounted for over 19 3PA per game in the first 3 games.  There were a few reasons for this from what I saw, Butler was good at setting them up, the Celtics did miss some rotations or otherwise didn't play tight defense, but these guys hit shots at an unsustainable rate.  Hopefully that bubble has burst and these guys will remember that they aren't really that good.  In game 4, this group was still pretty good, more like you would expect, a couple over 40%, a couple under 40%.  We can live with that.  To me, this is the key, do they keep hitting or cool off?

Another key to me is Brogdon.  He has been really flat, really off.  I think there is an opportunity for him to snap out of it and play better, have an impact on at least the next game.  He needs to be the guy for us that Martin and Vincent have been for the Heat.  We need the likes of Brogdon, White, and Grant to outplay the likes of Vincent, Martin, and Robinson.

Another concern I have is with RWill.  It seems the players kind of complained that they wanted him to start and play more but he has not been productive at all in this series.  He is not getting his lob-dunks, many of them end up in turnovers.  On defense, Miami is not challenging him at the rim, they are taking (and making) mid-range shots, mostly by Butler and Adebayo.  He usually brings a rebounding advantage but that is not offsetting his downside in this series.  I think we need to back off his minutes, keep playing Grant, and hope Al stays out of foul trouble.  Maybe give a few minutes to Hauser and hope he can hit a couple of 3s.

But isn’t that the point with Rob? I’d much rather them take midrange shots than at the basket, because as you say eventually they’ll regress to the mean. If he’s serving as a deterrent, then that’s fine.

I think the real issue there is adjusting Rob’s coverage. Bring him up a bit more and avoid being so deep in the paint so that they’re still encouraged to take the midrange shots but he’s up closer to provide more resistance and contest their shots more.

They also have to stop giving easy layups. there was only play last night where Butler was put on the floor by rob. It wasn't dirty, it was just a play that made Butler earn his points. Put these guys on the floor and let that fact of them knowing their going to get hit when they drive. It's been far too easy this series, and last.

[angryguy77]

Some NBA team will eventually come back down from 0-3, and if they do it will be a situation like this.

Home team is heavily favored but falls down 0-3 in part because they shoot 29% from three while road team shoots 48% from three over three games.

Then shooting luck switches and the home team, which was the MUCH better 3 point shooting team in the regular season, regresses to their mean from three while the road team, which was the much worse shooting team in the regular season regress to theirs as well.

So its possible. Problem is down 0-3 is there's just no margin for error. One more bad shooting game, one Tatum/Brown foul trouble game, one bad ref game, one more "slow down offense and blow game" loss and its over.

Shooting luck matters. Not only is MIA shooting 42% from three to the c's 32% (even after game 4)  but they are shooting 48% on 15-24 ft shots ie long two pointers. The c's are 38% on those shots.

You can't tell me that's ALL defense. Like that's, to some degree at least, luck.

bam is good with his jumpers in the paint but butler has killed us this series from the baseline especially game 3.

We've had 4 bad reffed games. It's not going to get better. League has shown Tatum and Brown will not get the whistle that Vincent gets this series.

[Roy H.]

Starting to get my hopes up.

[bdm860]

Yeh.  I'm kind of allowing myself to believe in the possibility until they lose, because why not?!   It's way more fun.

It's like playing the lottery.

Are the odds against me?  Sure. 

Do I believe I can win until I've officially lost? Absolutely.

And I have a blast doing it.

[footey]

I have hope.

I think Game 5 is the key. I think we will get Butler’s and Lowery’s A game. If we win game 5, the pressure suddenly shifts to the Heat, and we will play looser.

[Vermont Green]

Through the first 3 games, some unexpected Heat players shot the following from 3:

Love           75%   (Game 4  50%)
Vincent       56%   (Game 4  25%)
Robinson     53%   (Game 4   0%)
Martin         48%   (Game 4  40%)

These 4 accounted for over 19 3PA per game in the first 3 games.  There were a few reasons for this from what I saw, Butler was good at setting them up, the Celtics did miss some rotations or otherwise didn't play tight defense, but these guys hit shots at an unsustainable rate.  Hopefully that bubble has burst and these guys will remember that they aren't really that good.  In game 4, this group was still pretty good, more like you would expect, a couple over 40%, a couple under 40%.  We can live with that.  To me, this is the key, do they keep hitting or cool off?

Another key to me is Brogdon.  He has been really flat, really off.  I think there is an opportunity for him to snap out of it and play better, have an impact on at least the next game.  He needs to be the guy for us that Martin and Vincent have been for the Heat.  We need the likes of Brogdon, White, and Grant to outplay the likes of Vincent, Martin, and Robinson.

Another concern I have is with RWill.  It seems the players kind of complained that they wanted him to start and play more but he has not been productive at all in this series.  He is not getting his lob-dunks, many of them end up in turnovers.  On defense, Miami is not challenging him at the rim, they are taking (and making) mid-range shots, mostly by Butler and Adebayo.  He usually brings a rebounding advantage but that is not offsetting his downside in this series.  I think we need to back off his minutes, keep playing Grant, and hope Al stays out of foul trouble.  Maybe give a few minutes to Hauser and hope he can hit a couple of 3s.

But isn’t that the point with Rob? I’d much rather them take midrange shots than at the basket, because as you say eventually they’ll regress to the mean. If he’s serving as a deterrent, then that’s fine.

I think the real issue there is adjusting Rob’s coverage. Bring him up a bit more and avoid being so deep in the paint so that they’re still encouraged to take the midrange shots but he’s up closer to provide more resistance and contest their shots more.

That is a fair point.  I think RWill is still going to play but I am not expecting a big change in how things go when he is in the game.  It may be a scheme thing.  RWill may not be 100%.  I don't know.  He has not been impacting the game though.

[tonydelk]

There is a reason why no one comes back and win down 0-3.  All the C's needed to do was win 1 at home and I'd still have been confident they'd win the series.  It's been virtually impossible to do this feat and I'm sorry to be a debbie downer but I don't think they will do it.  Can they?  Yes. Will they? No.  I feel they will win at home in Game 5.  Game 6 in Miami that's a different story and the team who showed up in Game 7 against Philly will need to be there for the next 12 quarters.

[Vermont Green]

I believe that Miami really wanted to win game 4, they understand that they don't want to let this go on, but I also believe they will bring more intensity to game 5.  As much as they didn't want to lose game 4, game 5 is even more critical.  The Celtics are probably going to need to play even better in game 5 to win.  But I think they can.  It wasn't like game 4 was some great game by the Celtics.  They played well, but they can play better.  Will they play better?  We'll see.

[SHAQATTACK]

If the shot falls ,  Joe’s job gets a lot easier .  If the the three ball doesn’t drop,  Joe is not smart enough to coach the team , lift them or correct the course of the game to offset the three ball not dropping. It takes a coach that excels in real time changes to the game plan or on the fly adjustment or defensive tactics . I don’t trust he can think this clearly and does the team trust his judgement. He is slow to recognize things that don’t work , slow to react or read moves made against his team. Experience .

Winning the grinding games is the tuff coaching job . The Heat want to grind . 

Celtics need to focus , pass the ball, and knock down shots …not grind …..yeah Joe can win another game.
If not , I’d put my money Spo will end this series.

[cman88]

Through the first 3 games, some unexpected Heat players shot the following from 3:

Love           75%   (Game 4  50%)
Vincent       56%   (Game 4  25%)
Robinson     53%   (Game 4   0%)
Martin         48%   (Game 4  40%)

These 4 accounted for over 19 3PA per game in the first 3 games.  There were a few reasons for this from what I saw, Butler was good at setting them up, the Celtics did miss some rotations or otherwise didn't play tight defense, but these guys hit shots at an unsustainable rate.  Hopefully that bubble has burst and these guys will remember that they aren't really that good.  In game 4, this group was still pretty good, more like you would expect, a couple over 40%, a couple under 40%.  We can live with that.  To me, this is the key, do they keep hitting or cool off?

Another key to me is Brogdon.  He has been really flat, really off.  I think there is an opportunity for him to snap out of it and play better, have an impact on at least the next game.  He needs to be the guy for us that Martin and Vincent have been for the Heat.  We need the likes of Brogdon, White, and Grant to outplay the likes of Vincent, Martin, and Robinson.

Another concern I have is with RWill.  It seems the players kind of complained that they wanted him to start and play more but he has not been productive at all in this series.  He is not getting his lob-dunks, many of them end up in turnovers.  On defense, Miami is not challenging him at the rim, they are taking (and making) mid-range shots, mostly by Butler and Adebayo.  He usually brings a rebounding advantage but that is not offsetting his downside in this series.  I think we need to back off his minutes, keep playing Grant, and hope Al stays out of foul trouble.  Maybe give a few minutes to Hauser and hope he can hit a couple of 3s.

I said this earlier. Heats roleplayers played WELL above their norms. I mean the 3pt% they shot the first 3 games was better than prime warriors.

Meanwhile the Celtics and their roleplayers missed A LOT of 3's and have all pretty much underperformed their averages.

Is some of that defense or lack thereof? Yes to a degree. But I also watched Celtics miss wide open shots on some plays and Strus hit a side step 3 like Tatum makes...

If that has averaged out then celts are right back in it. I personally can't see Celtics lose 3 in a row at home.

So, If you get this to 3-2 all the pressure is on Miami and Celtics generally play well on the road down 3-2. The chances are still small, but the Celtics have the talent to do it if they can get hot.

No one has come back from 3-0 but if it is going to happen again some point this is the type of scenario for it to happen. An 8th seed up 3-0 on a 2nd seed who has a talent advantage but had underperformed.