We Can't Keep Smart & Brown Together Next Season

[Who]

I am still taken by the idea of trying to trade Jaylen for JJJ in Memphis. Not a Horford replacement to play alongside the two Jays but a Horford replacement to replace Jaylen and play alongside Tatum.

I like the versatility JJJ offers the team. We can play big with Tatum at SF, JJJ at PF alongside a true C (currently Timelord). A long athletic dominant defensive lineup. We can also go smaller with JJJ switching to center in other lineups. We could plug a big forward next to Tatum (or a bulky forward in G Will) and stay bigger. Or go smaller with Tatum at PF next to JJJ at C.

[RodyTur10]

I think this board is just spoiled. you dont realize what we have with Brown. last series he was the one keeping us afloat while Tatum struggled. yet now, lets trade him.

its always comical watching people on this board pine over average players. Trade brown for sabonis! who just got dumped in the first round..

people seriously want to trade brown for Randle? did you see how Randle disappeared vs. the Heat? hes the biggest reason they lost that series

A few stats on our regular 7 rotation players during these playoffs. For those who say they're meaningless I also give the leagues top statistic performers and leave you to the conclusion whether that creates a picture.

BPM (box-plus-minus)
1. Tatum 6.1
2. Williams 3.8
3. Horford 3.2
4. White 1.6
5. Smart 0.9
6. Brogdon 0.2
7. Brown 0.0

BPM has the following top 10 playoff performers (at least two series played) in order:
Jokic (13.4), Booker (10.7), Butler (8.4), Brunson, James, Curry, Davis, Tatum, Murray, Durant.

WS (win shares)

1. Tatum 2.3
2. Williams 1.5
3. Smart 1.3
4. White 1.3
5. Horford 1.2
6. Brogdon 1.0
7. Brown 0.9

WS has the following top 10 playoff performers (at least two series played) in order:
Jokic (3.5), Davis (2.4), Butler (2.4), Tatum, Booker, Murray, Brunson, James, Reaves, Porter Jr.

RAPTOR
1. Tatum 6.7
2. Horford 5.7
3. Smart 2.9
4. Williams 2.6
5. Brown 1.8
6. Brogdon 1.5
7. White -0.8

RAPTOR has the following top 10 playoff performers (at least two series played) in order:
Booker (10.3), Jokic (9.9), Brunson (9.1), Murray, Davis, Butler, Reaves, Tatum, Looney, Curry.

PIE (player impact estimate)
1. Tatum 16.8
2. Williams 11.5
3. Brown 10.8
4. Brogdon 10.2
5. Smart 10.1
6. White 9.0
7. Horford 8.4

PIE has the following top 10 playoff performers (at least two series played) in order:
Jokic (20.4), Butler (18.1), Davis (17.1), Booker, Tatum, Brunson, James, Murray, Looney, Curry.

VI (versatility index)
1. Tatum 11.6
2. Brown 8.2
3. Brogdon 8.2
4. Smart 8.1
5. Williams 6.7
6. Horford 6.5
7. White 5.9

VI has the following top 10 playoff performers (at least two series played) in order:
Jokic (16.5), James (11.9), Tatum (11.6), Butler, Durant, Harden, Looney, Curry, Murray, Booker.

And these stats don't just come up during these playoffs. Every season again. It indicates that Brown is perhaps one of the most overrated players in the league.

[gouki88]

I think this board is just spoiled. you dont realize what we have with Brown. last series he was the one keeping us afloat while Tatum struggled. yet now, lets trade him.

its always comical watching people on this board pine over average players. Trade brown for sabonis! who just got dumped in the first round..


people seriously want to trade brown for Randle? did you see how Randle disappeared vs. the Heat? hes the biggest reason they lost that series

Tatum was significantly better than Brown last series too. It is a complete myth that Brown was better.

29/11/5/1.4/1.3 on 45/37/84, with 2 turnovers a game and 8 FTAs for Tatum. Compare that with 23/5/4 on 54/43/77 shooting, with 3 turnovers and 5FTAs a game for Brown. Night and day!

That is before getting into the advanced metrics, which RodyTur10 posted.

[gouki88]

I am still taken by the idea of trying to trade Jaylen for JJJ in Memphis. Not a Horford replacement to play alongside the two Jays but a Horford replacement to replace Jaylen and play alongside Tatum.

I like the versatility JJJ offers the team. We can play big with Tatum at SF, JJJ at PF alongside a true C (currently Timelord). A long athletic dominant defensive lineup. We can also go smaller with JJJ switching to center in other lineups. We could plug a big forward next to Tatum (or a bulky forward in G Will) and stay bigger. Or go smaller with Tatum at PF next to JJJ at C.

Could not pass any harder on JJJ if I tried. Can't pass, is a below average shooter, can't rebound, and is so foul prone he has never averaged over 29MPG. He is also a walking injury

[Birdman]

Gotta keep Tatum & Brown together..need a scoring big to help around the rim..trade Smart should be the topic, got Brogdan & White to take his place in starting lineup

[Who]

I am still taken by the idea of trying to trade Jaylen for JJJ in Memphis. Not a Horford replacement to play alongside the two Jays but a Horford replacement to replace Jaylen and play alongside Tatum.

I like the versatility JJJ offers the team. We can play big with Tatum at SF, JJJ at PF alongside a true C (currently Timelord). A long athletic dominant defensive lineup. We can also go smaller with JJJ switching to center in other lineups. We could plug a big forward next to Tatum (or a bulky forward in G Will) and stay bigger. Or go smaller with Tatum at PF next to JJJ at C.

Could not pass any harder on JJJ if I tried. Can't pass, is a below average shooter, can't rebound, and is so foul prone he has never averaged over 29MPG. He is also a walking injury

I was thinking about a comparison for JJJ recently.

The name I came up with is Sheed. A subpar rebounder. A so-so passer. A solid scorer. He can score one-on-one and he can hit open jump shots and run the floor well but he doesn't bring his teammates into the game (cause of the lack of passing) and you can't run the offense through him (lack of passing, offensive passivity). Defensively, one of the finest and well rounded defensive big men in the league. Shot blocker, interior defender, quick, can defend the perimeter, switchable, can defend perimeter bigs, interior bigs.

That is without improvement. And JJJ is still very young and just showed great progress last year. He can get better.   

Sheed an advanced stats darling because of his versatility as a skilled big man. I expect JJJ will prove the same throughout his career.

[Kernewek]

I would like to submit to the thread that the redundancy between the Jays is less of a concern to our title chances than Horford’s decline and a lack of any kind of reasonable replacement for him on the roster or on the horizon.

What does a replacement for Al Horford look like?

Horford is such a rare player. Hard to get a like for like substitution. Are we looking for a PF to play alongside Timelord? A C with Timelord moving out of the starting lineup? A combo PF/C?

What type of big forward or center do we need alongside the Jays to best complement them? Another scorer? Or a low usage shooter / passer like Al?

That's the trouble, I can think of the archetype - skilled passer and defender who doesn't need touches to have an impact - but the only player I can think of off the top who fits that criteria is... 33 year old Draymond Green? Who isn't going anywhere. Triple J could be the answer, though I think he won't wind up being the player that Sheed was.

[gouki88]

I would like to submit to the thread that the redundancy between the Jays is less of a concern to our title chances than Horford’s decline and a lack of any kind of reasonable replacement for him on the roster or on the horizon.

What does a replacement for Al Horford look like?

Horford is such a rare player. Hard to get a like for like substitution. Are we looking for a PF to play alongside Timelord? A C with Timelord moving out of the starting lineup? A combo PF/C?

What type of big forward or center do we need alongside the Jays to best complement them? Another scorer? Or a low usage shooter / passer like Al?

That's the trouble, I can think of the archetype - skilled passer and defender who doesn't need touches to have an impact - but the only player I can think of off the top who fits that criteria is... 33 year old Draymond Green? Who isn't going anywhere. Triple J could be the answer, though I think he won't wind up being the player that Sheed was.

Kyle Anderson? Mason Plumlee? Zach Collins?

These are all budget options. Mid-tier replacement would be Wendell Carter Jr., who I think is an underrated passer and is overall very solid. High level would be Siakam, who I think is best alongside a better offensive player.

Brown for Siakam would be a super interesting swap

[Kernewek]

I would like to submit to the thread that the redundancy between the Jays is less of a concern to our title chances than Horford’s decline and a lack of any kind of reasonable replacement for him on the roster or on the horizon.

What does a replacement for Al Horford look like?

Horford is such a rare player. Hard to get a like for like substitution. Are we looking for a PF to play alongside Timelord? A C with Timelord moving out of the starting lineup? A combo PF/C?

What type of big forward or center do we need alongside the Jays to best complement them? Another scorer? Or a low usage shooter / passer like Al?

That's the trouble, I can think of the archetype - skilled passer and defender who doesn't need touches to have an impact - but the only player I can think of off the top who fits that criteria is... 33 year old Draymond Green? Who isn't going anywhere. Triple J could be the answer, though I think he won't wind up being the player that Sheed was.

Kyle Anderson? Mason Plumlee? Zach Collins?

These are all budget options. Mid-tier replacement would be Wendell Carter Jr., who I think is an underrated passer and is overall very solid. High level would be Siakam, who I think is best alongside a better offensive player.

Brown for Siakam would be a super interesting swap

All solid choices - of varying ability. My big issue with trading JB has been the low likelihood that the C's get back a player that is equally valuable to the team, even if they are more complimentary to Tatum.  This is still true, even as Moranis's position on Brown seems to be picking up more steam across the board lately

Brown for Siakam is interesting, no doubt - but the mechanics of that are difficult since Siakam will be an expiring contract and Brown will be (we assume) on a supermax.

[gouki88]

I would like to submit to the thread that the redundancy between the Jays is less of a concern to our title chances than Horford’s decline and a lack of any kind of reasonable replacement for him on the roster or on the horizon.

What does a replacement for Al Horford look like?

Horford is such a rare player. Hard to get a like for like substitution. Are we looking for a PF to play alongside Timelord? A C with Timelord moving out of the starting lineup? A combo PF/C?

What type of big forward or center do we need alongside the Jays to best complement them? Another scorer? Or a low usage shooter / passer like Al?

That's the trouble, I can think of the archetype - skilled passer and defender who doesn't need touches to have an impact - but the only player I can think of off the top who fits that criteria is... 33 year old Draymond Green? Who isn't going anywhere. Triple J could be the answer, though I think he won't wind up being the player that Sheed was.

Kyle Anderson? Mason Plumlee? Zach Collins?

These are all budget options. Mid-tier replacement would be Wendell Carter Jr., who I think is an underrated passer and is overall very solid. High level would be Siakam, who I think is best alongside a better offensive player.

Brown for Siakam would be a super interesting swap

All solid choices - of varying ability. My big issue with trading JB has been the low likelihood that the C's get back a player that is equally valuable to the team, even if they are more complimentary to Tatum.  This is still true, even as Moranis's position on Brown seems to be picking up more steam across the board lately

Brown for Siakam is interesting, no doubt - but the mechanics of that are difficult since Siakam will be an expiring contract and Brown will be (we assume) on a supermax.

Yeah, that’s definitely the broader difficulty in trading a top talent. Always the potential for trading a dollar for a few quarters.

Those darn contracts. The guy I keep coming back to Lillard, despite all of Portland’s posturing. I just love the idea of his shot creation here.

All just dreams. Hopefully we pick someone good at 35

[Celtic_Pride777]

I'd give Brown a supermax contract, but I feel he's pretty much hit his ceiling and I'm growing impatient with his poor IQ, mental lapses, and inability to handle the ball. If you want my honest opinion, he isn't good enough of a #2 to win us a title. But you won't get much value if you trade him now. You're better off giving him a supermax extension and hope that he and Tatum continue to improve.

[PAOBoston]

Gotta keep Tatum & Brown together..need a scoring big to help around the rim..trade Smart should be the topic, got Brogdan & White to take his place in starting lineup

This is how I am leaning as well. They are quite frankly loaded at the guard position right now with Smart/White/Brogdon/Pritchard. Smart is the logical choice to dangle in a package for an upgrade in the front court. Can Smart + Timelord and picks get you someone like a Towns or a Turner etc?

[Vermont Green]

The reason to consider trading one of these three is to balance the roster. Most of the top teams have a big as one of their top two or three players. We do not. I really like Jalen Brown, but I would trade him for the right type of power forward or center.  You could trade smart or white also but you wouldn’t get as much back. Maybe that is OK too. But I think we do need to look at balancing the roster.

[Moranis]

Paul, Ayton

for

Smart, Brogdon, Pritchard, Gallinari

I think that makes sense for both teams.  Suns need the depth and Ayton hasn't worked.  C's need someone like Paul to provide a steady hand and Ayton has real talent even if he hasn't worked in Phoenix.

Boston post trade

Starters - Paul, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Ayton
Playoff rotation - White, Hauser, Grant, Rob, Taxpayor MLE
Deep bench - Davison, Champagnie, Muscala, Kornet, 35

I'd keep Rob and Ayton for at least 1 season as both are injury prone and Al is old, but would revisit them long term if they didn't work.

Huge overpay. Wouldn't give Smart and Brogdon for Ayton and Paul straight up. We would need additional compensation

I get the Suns guys are overpaid and Paul gets hurt a lot, but Paul is a much better fit with Brown and Tatum because of his shooting and passing.  He is a real PG.  Boston needs a steady hand at that position that won't just go rogue and take terrible shots.  Ayton for all his flaws has never averaged less than 10 rpg and added in a solid 18 ppg this year.  He'd be a very nice 3rd scoring option and adds some help on the boards.  Boston hasn't had a true inside scorer since a way over the hill Shaq.  Smart just doesn't add much that White doesn't give and while losing Brogdon from the bench would be tough, I think overall the team post trade is much more balanced and better positioned to win.  And Ayton still isn't 25 so he could be around a very long time as a nice solid 3rd option.

[Phantom255x]

I'm more convinced as I'm watching this game that this has to be done. No way you can keep both. Have to trade someone.