Is this just wishful thinking

[scaryjerry]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

[celticsclay]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

[celticsclay]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Based on the verbiage, it's almost certainly from nba.com/stats, which means that the breakdown is as follows:

Closest defender 0-2 feet: very tight
Closest defender 2-4 feet: tight
Closest defender 4-6 feet: open
Closest defender 6+ feet: wide open

If you want to do it on a per-team basis, this is the link you'd like:
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender

And it looks like the playoff average for open threes is 32.5% if you plug those numbers into a spreadsheet.

Thank you, really useful. Good to have data like this. Doesn’t mean we win game or the series by any stretch but legit proof it was a very statistically abnormal game.

[Celtic_Pride777]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

[ozgod]

So have certainly been very frustrated and upset by last nights game that it took me till noon to be able to face the forum. But my question reaction is, did we just lose that game on extremely irregular three point shooting? Miami shot 51% from three on over 30 attempts. Their season average was 34% so even an above shooting night at like 42% we still win. Then you add in we shot below our season average of 38% at 34.5% and it seems fluky. Does this seem legitimate to others or am I just trying to make myself feel better?

I think it's a couple of things - their 3 point shooting was way higher than their mean, and our defense was much worse than our mean. It's the same thing I thought about when we lost Games 1 and 4 to Philly. It took two Harden specials and their role players shooting significantly above their season %s on threes and even then we were still in it till the end. In a way that's what makes it even more frustrating - we just needed to play a little better, make them shoot a little worse, given it was only a 7 point loss in the end.

[cman88]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

So you ignore the Knicks series because it doesn't fit the narrative?

[scaryjerry]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

So you ignore the Knicks series because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Not gonna lie, I largely ignored the knicks/heat series but the fact that they didn’t shoot well and rather easily beat the knicks should actually scare you more.

[Kernewek]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Based on the verbiage, it's almost certainly from nba.com/stats, which means that the breakdown is as follows:

Closest defender 0-2 feet: very tight
Closest defender 2-4 feet: tight
Closest defender 4-6 feet: open
Closest defender 6+ feet: wide open

If you want to do it on a per-team basis, this is the link you'd like:
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender

And it looks like the playoff average for open threes is 32.5% if you plug those numbers into a spreadsheet.

Thank you, really useful. Good to have data like this. Doesn’t mean we win game or the series by any stretch but legit proof it was a very statistically abnormal game.

Yeah - it's sometimes reductive to say "well the other team made shots" but in this case that appears to be what happened - they had open shooters and they knocked down shots. That's basketball sometimes.

[cman88]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

So you ignore the Knicks series because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Not gonna lie, I largely ignored the knicks/heat series but the fact that they didn’t shoot well and rather easily beat the knicks should actually scare you more.

you do realize they shot 41% against the bucks. good numbers, but not the 51% you guys are arguing they can sustain. thats a 10% jump.

so you ignored that series yet are going to make predictions based off of it?

I watched that series. they missed Randle with an injury for one game and when he came back he was never the same player. The Knicks are not a good team. they were basically Brunson. they really cant compare to the celtics talent level. and they won two games in that series, and most were close so wouldn't say they were easily beaten.

but okay, the series is over why even watch? we should just turn off our TV's and anoint the heat the greatest ever.

this board is annoying whenever the celtics lose....It was just two weeks ago I was hearing from Posters how Harden can easily put up 30-40 a game and the celtics are doomed. and now the celtics are doomed because Miami will shoot 51% from three for a whole series and celtics will make no adjustments..

and yet we were still within 4 at the end. even after losing the 3rd quarter as bad as we did. If Tatum didn't turn the ball over three straight times who knows what happens.

[Roy H.]

In the regular season, the Heat ranked 20th in mid-range field goal percentage (40.8%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (34.4%). Those numbers were up through the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the Heat hit another level on Wednesday.

Miami shot 10-for-15 (67%) from mid-range and 16-for-31 (52%) from 3-point range in Game 1. Their effective field goal percentage of 73.9% on shots from outside the paint was their third-highest mark of the season in 96 total games.

Butler was the man from mid-range, shooting 6-for-9 from between the paint and the 3-point line. But he was just one of six Heat players who made at least two 3-pointers and one of four Heat players who had at least two assists on 3-pointers.

So, yeah, flukey, even with the awful defense:

[cman88]

In the regular season, the Heat ranked 20th in mid-range field goal percentage (40.8%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (34.4%). Those numbers were up through the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the Heat hit another level on Wednesday.

Miami shot 10-for-15 (67%) from mid-range and 16-for-31 (52%) from 3-point range in Game 1. Their effective field goal percentage of 73.9% on shots from outside the paint was their third-highest mark of the season in 96 total games.

Butler was the man from mid-range, shooting 6-for-9 from between the paint and the 3-point line. But he was just one of six Heat players who made at least two 3-pointers and one of four Heat players who had at least two assists on 3-pointers.

So, yeah, flukey, even with the awful defense:

Yeah i think both can be true. But celtics need to absolutely adjust to defending the 3 point line the rest of the series and especially in game 2. its honestly the only thing that kept Miami in the game. if they miss a few of those open 3's in the first this is a 20point lead.

like here, why are we doubling Lowry to leave strus open on the 3? If lowry is going to take a tough contested shot and make it just tip your cap to him. its a better option than giving up an open 3 to strus

[ozgod]

In the regular season, the Heat ranked 20th in mid-range field goal percentage (40.8%) and 27th in 3-point percentage (34.4%). Those numbers were up through the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the Heat hit another level on Wednesday.

Miami shot 10-for-15 (67%) from mid-range and 16-for-31 (52%) from 3-point range in Game 1. Their effective field goal percentage of 73.9% on shots from outside the paint was their third-highest mark of the season in 96 total games.

Butler was the man from mid-range, shooting 6-for-9 from between the paint and the 3-point line. But he was just one of six Heat players who made at least two 3-pointers and one of four Heat players who had at least two assists on 3-pointers.

So, yeah, flukey, even with the awful defense:

That was terrible defense from Brogdon, closing out on Cody Zeller who has a 0% 3FG% this season, a 21% career 3FG% and in fact hasn't made a 3 since April 28 2021, instead of Max Strus, who's shooting 38% 3FG% in the playoffs this season. Better judgment needed.

On another note, I keep thinking of how Strus was on a 2-way with us but we moved him to a standard contract to sign Tacko, then we cut him for Javonte. I can understand why they did it at the time, but in hindsight better judgment was needed there too 

[Celtic_Pride777]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Yeah, this is still very high.  For the season, Golden State led the league in wide open 3% at 41.7.  Miami was 25th at 37.1%.  They made nearly double their rate of wide open 3s.

I thought there was no way 57% is average on 3's. I mean even when the Celtics upped their defensive intensity the heat just hit some ridiculous threes.

Celtics missed a lot of open threes too. So it's no given that a team hits an open shot.

I mean Lowry taking step backs and nailing them? As bad as the Celtics were if that's what the heat need to do 4 times in a row to win I don't think it's sustainable.

Celtics will adjust.

I think Cs will adjust. But, this has happened a lot and you’d think the idea of upping the defensive intensity would be in their brains BEFORE they lose a game.  Cs up 9 and looked in control at the end of the 2nd quarter. Should have come out with fire in their bellies at the half.

And… I hate to harp on this but big nights for Marcus Smart often come with cost.  I’m never comfortable when he plays as well as he did in the first half. It’s like a harbinger of bad things to come. He eventually starts playing like he owns the place - he just can’t keep his head in the right place.  I half root fit him to make a couple of bad passes and missed threes early so that we get defensive, driving Marcus instead of Meadowlark Lemon and Curly Neal later in the game.  He’s hit clutch shots now and again for sure, but I always want him either looking for a Jay (not a J) or taking the open lane.

Great assessment on Smart.

[Celtic_Pride777]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

So you ignore the Knicks series because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Not gonna lie, I largely ignored the knicks/heat series but the fact that they didn’t shoot well and rather easily beat the knicks should actually scare you more.

LOL. So true.

[scaryjerry]

They’ve been shooting well all playoffs…

Is this a random made up post? They actually shot really awful against the Knicks. Like 29% for the series. They shot 51% last night. This is the difference between the best and worst shooting team in nba history (by a lot)

You're ignoring the Bucks series. The Heat shot lights out from 3 during the Buck series - well above their season average. Their shooting percentage regressed during the Knick series, but they've proven they can sustain good shooting over multiple games.

So you ignore the Knicks series because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Not gonna lie, I largely ignored the knicks/heat series but the fact that they didn’t shoot well and rather easily beat the knicks should actually scare you more.

you do realize they shot 41% against the bucks. good numbers, but not the 51% you guys are arguing they can sustain. thats a 10% jump.

so you ignored that series yet are going to make predictions based off of it?

I watched that series. they missed Randle with an injury for one game and when he came back he was never the same player. The Knicks are not a good team. they were basically Brunson. they really cant compare to the celtics talent level. and they won two games in that series, and most were close so wouldn't say they were easily beaten.

but okay, the series is over why even watch? we should just turn off our TV's and anoint the heat the greatest ever.

this board is annoying whenever the celtics lose....It was just two weeks ago I was hearing from Posters how Harden can easily put up 30-40 a game and the celtics are doomed. and now the celtics are doomed because Miami will shoot 51% from three for a whole series and celtics will make no adjustments..

and yet we were still within 4 at the end. even after losing the 3rd quarter as bad as we did. If Tatum didn't turn the ball over three straight times who knows what happens.

Um I still give the Celtics a really good shot at winning the series I just do think people are underrating Miami and them winning this series wouldn’t surprise me at all..Celtics SHOULD still win in 5 but won’t.

Also you saying the Knicks aren’t a good team is annoying, they were pretty darn good against us this year and frankly think the Knicks beat the teams we have played in the playoffs so far, just saying.