Is this just wishful thinking

[celticsclay]

So have certainly been very frustrated and upset by last nights game that it took me till noon to be able to face the forum. But my question reaction is, did we just lose that game on extremely irregular three point shooting? Miami shot 51% from three on over 30 attempts. Their season average was 34% so even an above shooting night at like 42% we still win. Then you add in we shot below our season average of 38% at 34.5% and it seems fluky. Does this seem legitimate to others or am I just trying to make myself feel better?

[Donoghus]

So have certainly been very frustrated and upset by last nights game that it took me till noon to be able to face the forum. But my question reaction is, did we just lose that game on extremely irregular three point shooting? Miami shot 51% from three on over 30 attempts. Their season average was 34% so even an above shooting night at like 42% we still win. Then you add in we shot below our season average of 38% at 34.5% and it seems fluky. Does this seem legitimate to others or am I just trying to make myself feel better?

For the most part, I feel the same.  Don't get me wrong, the Celtics did some really stupid things that certainly didn't help but the game was still there for the taking late in the 4th quarter.

The self inflicted stuff is being magnified but MIA's shooting was on another level last night.

[Roy H.]

Part of it is rationalizing, but you're also right that it was a statistically improbable game.

At the same time, we need to account for how soft Miami was inside in the first half.  It's probably unlikely that we're shooting 62% from inside the arc, or getting 10 more FTAs than the Heat going forward.

[SparzWizard]

The percentage of 3 was one thing. But the 3rd quarter woes? What was that all about. The defense was just poor from the C's. They were once an elite defensive team last playoffs and now they look like a sieve

[jpotter33]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

[TheReaLPuba]

The percentage of 3 was one thing. But the 3rd quarter woes? What was that all about. The defense was just poor from the C's. They were once an elite defensive team last playoffs and now they look like a sieve

Been happening all year.

Yes we have a very good offensive team and offensive depth roster wise but it means nothing in the playoffs when you let a Heat team scorch your ass for 46 pt quarters with 50 year old Kyle Lowry/Kevin Love and without Tyler Herro playing…it’s beyond pathetic.

Have some defensive pride.

Stop going for fakes.

Stay in front of your man.

Box the f out.

And stop turning the ball over.

[dang].

[angryguy77]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Was going to say this.

They will repeat this all series if they allow them wide open shots. You leave any professional ball player wide and they'll hit more than not.

[celticsclay]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong. 

[Vermont Green]

The unfortunate truth is that it is impossible to know for sure if it was unsustainably good shooting or if it was bad defense.  Based on my eye test, I did not think the defense was all that bad.  Jimmy Butler created most of the open looks.  We should be able to adjust and tighten up the defense some.  I am not sure about the "open" and "wide open" determinations.  They were getting some good looks at 3s, but it didn't seem like there were that many wide open 3s.

So like many things, it is probably a combination of many things, unsustainable shooting for sure is likely a big part of it, defense also (both scheme and effort), and like I said, also Butler's ability to draw the defense and make the good pass (create).

The bottom line was that their supporting cast out played our supporting cast by quite a bit and that was not supposed to happen.  Their supporting cast got the looks and knocked them down.

[gouki88]

Our defence will adjust, like it did to Philly. I don't see Miami shooting that well again unless we just ignore their shooters

[Kernewek]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Based on the verbiage, it's almost certainly from nba.com/stats, which means that the breakdown is as follows:

Closest defender 0-2 feet: very tight
Closest defender 2-4 feet: tight
Closest defender 4-6 feet: open
Closest defender 6+ feet: wide open

If you want to do it on a per-team basis, this is the link you'd like:
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender

And it looks like the playoff average for open threes is 32.5% if you plug those numbers into a spreadsheet.

[Celtics2021]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Yeah, this is still very high.  For the season, Golden State led the league in wide open 3% at 41.7.  Miami was 25th at 37.1%.  They made nearly double their rate of wide open 3s.

[cman88]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Yeah, this is still very high.  For the season, Golden State led the league in wide open 3% at 41.7.  Miami was 25th at 37.1%.  They made nearly double their rate of wide open 3s.

I thought there was no way 57% is average on 3's. I mean even when the Celtics upped their defensive intensity the heat just hit some ridiculous threes.

Celtics missed a lot of open threes too. So it's no given that a team hits an open shot.

I mean Lowry taking step backs and nailing them? As bad as the Celtics were if that's what the heat need to do 4 times in a row to win I don't think it's sustainable.

Celtics will adjust.

[Neurotic Guy]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Thanks jp, this is useful data. Is there a way to find out average shooting on “open 3’s”? Even on wide open threes 75% seems a bit insane. But on “open” threes 65% seems really crazy. Like maybe curry could but Strauss vincent lowry or butler I find hard to believe doing that in an open gym. Is there a way to look this up? I would guess open 3’s would be like 45% max but definitely could be wrong.

Yeah, this is still very high.  For the season, Golden State led the league in wide open 3% at 41.7.  Miami was 25th at 37.1%.  They made nearly double their rate of wide open 3s.

I thought there was no way 57% is average on 3's. I mean even when the Celtics upped their defensive intensity the heat just hit some ridiculous threes.

Celtics missed a lot of open threes too. So it's no given that a team hits an open shot.

I mean Lowry taking step backs and nailing them? As bad as the Celtics were if that's what the heat need to do 4 times in a row to win I don't think it's sustainable.

Celtics will adjust.

I think Cs will adjust. But, this has happened a lot and you’d think the idea of upping the defensive intensity would be in their brains BEFORE they lose a game.  Cs up 9 and looked in control at the end of the 2nd quarter. Should have come out with fire in their bellies at the half.

And… I hate to harp on this but big nights for Marcus Smart often come with cost.  I’m never comfortable when he plays as well as he did in the first half. It’s like a harbinger of bad things to come. He eventually starts playing like he owns the place - he just can’t keep his head in the right place.  I half root fit him to make a couple of bad passes and missed threes early so that we get defensive, driving Marcus instead of Meadowlark Lemon and Curly Neal later in the game.  He’s hit clutch shots now and again for sure, but I always want him either looking for a Jay (not a J) or taking the open lane.

[Goldstar88]

https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1659204209584275456?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

The Heat were 8-13 on "open" 3PA and 8-12 on "wide open" 3PA

0-6 on "tight" contested 3PA

What a crazy concept! 25 of their 31 were open/wide open. Maybe guard the line a little bit more in Game 2

I mean, when you defend as poorly as we did, expect them to shoot over their averages. That’s an absurd amount of open threes to give them with our perimeter length and defenders.

Yep. 100%